房产税对宏观经济的影响效应研究

本文扩展Dong et al.(2019)通过企业家对住房地产和实体经济投资进行资产组合决策,把房价、投资、消费和产出等重要经济指标纳入主流新凯恩斯框架,考虑银行能否区分贷款是投入实体经济还是房地产业两种情形,分析了房产税引入住房市场前后对宏观经济的影响效应。研究结果表明:开征房产税对房地产开发投资、房价和新住房生产具有明显的抑制作用,对实体经济投资则具有正挤入效应增加和负抵押效应减少的双重效应。从短期看,当银行无法区分企业贷款是投入实体经济还是房地产业时,因前期的负抵押效应大于正挤入效应,总实物资本减少,产出下降;当可清晰区分二者时,负抵押效应变为小于正挤入效应,总实物资本增加,产出上升。鉴于推出房产税对宏观经济影响较为复杂,应充分权衡利弊,采取必要辅助措施趋利避害。

On the Macroeconomic Effects of Housing Property Taxes

As an important and stable source of fiscal revenue for local governments in mature market economies, the housing property tax has unique benefits, such as supporting local infrastructure construction and public services, regulating income distribution, and promoting social equity. Since the advent of China's housing-stock era and the reduction of land-based fiscal revenue, the urgency of housing property tax reform has increased. However, the imminent introduction of the housing property tax will have a major impact on consumption, investment, output, and financial stability, due to the real estate industry's long economic chain and wide range of connections. As housing property tax reform has an impact on the macro economy by affecting the real estate market, it is highly important to study the macroeconomic effects of levying a real estate tax, and to provide theoretical support for housing property tax reform.
The current domestic and foreign literature on real estate taxes focuses on its impact on housing prices. However, due to the special status of real estate in the national economy, housing property tax will affect investment in real estate development and in the real economy. It will also influence residential consumption, economic growth, and financial stability by affecting housing prices. Based on the above considerations, this paper extends Dong et al. (2019) and analyzes the macroeconomic effects of housing property taxes by examining entrepreneurs' portfolio decisions on real estate purchases and real economy investments and incorporating important economic indicators such as housing prices, investments, and outputs into the mainstream New Keynesian framework. The paper makes two main contributions to the literature. First, it discusses the impact of introducing a housing property tax on both the real estate market and the real economy. Second, it considers the different impacts of levying a housing property tax when banks can or cannot clearly distinguish whether entrepreneurs' loans are invested in the real economy or real estate market.
The research results show that the imposition of a real estate tax has a significant inhibitory effect on real estate investment, house prices, and new housing production. The tax also has a dual effect on real economy investment, due to an increase in the positive crowding-in effect and a decrease in the negative mortgage effect. In the short term, when banks cannot distinguish whether entrepreneurs' loans are for the real economy or for the real estate market, the negative mortgage effect is greater than the positive crowding-in effect, so the total physical capital and output decreases. When banks can clearly distinguish between real economy and real estate loans, the negative mortgage effect becomes less than the positive crowding-in effect, and the total physical capital and output increases.
In general, the levying of a housing property tax has a certain negative impact on the real estate industry. In the short and long terms, it has a major impact on housing prices, new housing production, investment for real estate development, and the rate of return on such investment. From a macroeconomic point of view, the levying of a housing property tax has a long-term negative impact on consumption, real economy investment, and output. The short-term impact is determined by the production enterprises' leverage, the share of final returns of entrepreneurs' investment in real estate projects, and whether it is possible to clearly distinguish if entrepreneurs' loans are invested in the real economy or real estate market.
In view of the fact that the introduction of a housing property tax has a great impact on China's real estate industry and on the nation's macroeconomics, this paper suggests that the principle of “legislation first, full authorization, and step-by-step advancement” should be adhered to, and the housing property tax should be introduced in a timely and stable manner. In particular, the government should be more cautious about introducing the housing property tax during the current economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 epidemic. Some auxiliary measures should be taken. For example, exemptions should be given for certain numbers or areas of family housing to reduce the impact on most households. When the housing property tax is levied, taxes imposed during the construction phase and the transaction process should be reduced. The anticipation managements should be strengthened as a means to stabilize land prices and house prices.The housing's purchase and loan restrictions on households should be gradually eliminated.Before the housing property tax levying system is established and rationalized, it should be introduced with a nominally small tax rate, such as an annual 0.1% or 0.2%, and then be gradually increased as the economy grows stronger in the future.