减税降费的价格和福利效应——引入成本传导率的投入产出价格模型分析

本文在增值税抵扣机制的投入产出价格模型中引入社保费和成本传导机制,并利用2017年中国投入产出表和税收数据模拟分析了不同成本传导率条件下,减税降费的价格效应和福利效应。研究表明:(1)减税降费使得各行业产品价格降低,对第三产业的价格影响最为明显。(2)成本传导率越高,则产品价格的下降幅度越大。当成本传导率分别为1/3、2/3和1时,各行业产品价格的平均下降幅度分别为0.32%、0.93%和2.66%。(3)较为合理的中国整体成本传导率约为1/3,减税降费是2019年中国PPI下降的主要因素之一。当成本传导率为1/3时,模拟计算的PPI下降幅度与国家统计局公布的2019年PPI的下降幅度(-0.3%)非常接近。(4)减税降费使消费者价格下降,居民福利得以改善,且城镇居民福利改善高于农村居民。随着价格传导率增大,城镇居民与农村居民的人均福利改善差距扩大。

The Price and Welfare Effects of Tax Cuts and Fee Reduction Policies:An Analysis Based on an Input-Output Model with a Cost Transmission Rate

Tax reduction and fee reduction are key parts of fiscal policy that play important roles in stimulating economic vitality. The effect of tax reduction on firms' costs is closely related to the cost transmission rate. From the macro perspective, the producer price will drop if the cost of taxes and fees is partially transmitted. This will further reduce production cost and thus increase firns' profits. However, producer prices are also affected by many other factors, such as strong market demand. When demand is greater than supply, producer prices may rise. This leads to our research question: what is the price effect of the tax and fee reduction policy implemented in China (especially in 2019) and how does this policy influence consumers' welfare？ This paper evaluates the effects by constructing an input-output price model with a cost transmission rate. Indirect taxes and fees such as VAT, social security fees, and other production taxes are embedded in the input-output model. The paper focuses on the price and welfare effects of tax and fee reduction. It analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of different tax and fee reduction policies by designing different structural tax reduction scenarios. Our results show that tax cuts and fee reductions decrease product price and production cost in all industries. The price reduction in the service sector is the highest. The higher the cost transmission rate, the larger the price reduction. When the cost transmission rate is 1/3, the estimated degree of reduction of PPI is the closest to the actual PPI change. Regarding the welfare effect, tax cuts and fee reductions decrease the consumer price and thus improve household welfare. The welfare improvement of a urban household is greater than that of a rural household. The welfare improvement discrepancy between urban households and rural households increases with the increasing cost transmission rate. This paper's main marginal contributions are as follows. First, by introducing the cost transmission mechanism, this paper constructs an input-output price model with incomplete cost transmission of taxes and fees—Value-added tax, social security fees, and other indirect taxes. The traditional input-output price model assumes that price is completely forward transitive. In fact, most cases are imperfect competition markets. Second, this paper analyzes the impact of China's actual tax and fee reduction policy on PPI and welfare under different cost transitive scenarios. Based on the actual tax reduction rate data of various industries obtained from the tax bureau, the paper estimates tax collection and management ability and then simulates and analyzes the price and welfare effects of the actual tax reduction. Third, this paper constructs three scenarios of structural tax and fee reduction and their impacts on price and welfare. It follows the principles of tax rate simplification and tax rate reform to promote the effective allocation of resources. The paper therefore provides a reference point for further promoting tax system reform and macro policy-making.We obtain the following policy implications from our research conclusions. First, tax reduction can effectively reduce the producer price index, reduce the cost burden of enterprises, and improve consumer welfare. China still faces many risks and challenges in its post-pandemic economic development. It is crucial to implement a tax and fee reduction policy and reduce the burden on enterprises. The state must put into place preferential policies for preventing and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic, resuming work and production, stabilizing foreign trade, and expanding domestic demand. Second, the design of tax and fee reduction policies should take into account that the industry sector's partial cost transmission rate might weaken the effect of policy implementation. We should estimate the industry sector's cost transmission rate, design the range and size of tax and fee reduction, and truly reduce enterprises' burden. Third, structural tax and fee reduction policies are conducive to better policy effects. Finally, this paper contains some shortcomings which are worthy of further investigation. For instance, the paper gives the same value to the cost transmission rate for all industries, due to the limited availability of data. The cost transmission rate of course differs between industries, so we can further explore how to estimate different industries' cost transmission rates. This will improve our input-output price model with a cost transmission rate. This paper can also be extended to the general equilibrium model with an input-output structure.