财政压力、土地财政与区域房价的时空演化--基于GTWR模型的实证研究

通过分析财政压力与土地财政对区域房价的影响机理,来构建三者之间的关系模型,同时考虑到财政压力与土地财政对区域房价的影响存在时空异质性,采用GTWR模型对模型参数进行估计,研究了财政压力、土地财政对房价的直接效应与间接效应,并对其时空异质特征进行了实证研究。结果显示:财政压力、土地财政对房价整体上具有正向直接效应;财政压力通过土地财政对区域房价起到正向的间接效应;财政压力和土地财政及两者互动对房价的影响效应存在较大的时空差异,其中东部地区和中部地区由于较高的土地财政依赖而以间接效应为主,而西部地区则以财政压力对房价的直接效应为主。最后,提出相应的政策建议。

Fiscal Pressure,Land Finance and the Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Regional House Price--Empirical Research Based on GTWR Model

This paper firstly analyzes the mechanism that fiscal pressure and land finance affect regional house price,and therefore constructs the relationship model.Considering the spatio-temporal heterogeneity,the GTWR model is applied to estimate the coefficients thus to study the direct effect and indirect effect of fiscal pressure and land finance on regional house price.The results show that the fiscal pressure and land finance make a significant positive direct effect on house price and the fiscal pressure still makes a positive indirect effect on house price through land finance.The effect of fiscal pressure and land finance show significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity,that the indirect effect is the main effect in east and central regions in China and the direct effect of fiscal pressure is the main effect in west regions in China.At the end,some effective suggestions are given.