中国的国际收支失衡与货币错配

改革开放以来,中国经济被逐步纳入到世界经济运行的轨道。作为货币尚未国际化的发展中国家,中国的国际收支失衡导致了严重的货币错配。本文从国际收支失衡的角度,采用AECM指数体系,对1985～2004年中国的货币错配进行了实证分析。分析结果表明,1985年以来中国的货币错配日益严重,虽然货币错配及其风险尚未达到不可控制的程度,但已对中国经济产生了较大的负面影响。因此,政府和企业都必须采取有效措施对货币错配及其风险进行控制和管理。

China's Imbalance in Balance of Payments and Currency Mismatch

Since its reforming and open to outside world,China's economy has been integrated into the world economy. As a developing country with non-convertible currency,China's imbalance in balance of payments has caused serious currency mismatch.In this paper,we estimate China's currency mismatch in the period of 1985 to 2004,measured by AECM index.The estimate shows that,since 1985,currency mismatch in China has grown significantly.Although currency mismatch and its risk are now not out of control,they have shined great negative influence on china's economy.Both enterprises and government should take effective measures to manage the risk of currency mismatch.