中国养老保险制度改革的政策选择——老龄化、城市化、全球化的视角

中国的养老保险制度改革不仅要考虑到人口老龄化的挑战,还需看到经济全球化提出的要求,以及城市化带来的机遇。本文基于详实的数据和深入的前期研究,指出中国的养老保险制度改革仍然具有一些独特的空间,包括老年劳动参与的提高,劳动生产率的提升,养老保险覆盖面的扩大,保险基金投资回报率的提高等。中国的老龄化发生在经济发展水平相对较低的阶段,在经济全球化时代,需要权衡缴费率和国际竞争力之间的矛盾。与人口老龄化相伴随的是城市化,将农村转移劳动力纳入城镇社会保障体系可以在较长时间内改变体系的负担率,同时农村老年人口绝对数量的下降,也可为政府补贴增长提供条件。长期而言,老龄化社会的养老能力根本上取决于劳动生产率的不断提高。

Reform of Old - Age Social Security in China --A Perspective of Aging, Urbanization and Globalization

Old-age social security reform in China is not only challenged by population,but also by economic globalization.At the same time,urbanization provides opportunities.Based on detailed information and previous research,we point out that China has some unique solutions to social security reform,including increasing old age labor participation,improving labor productivity,expending the coverage and increasing the return of social security funds.Population aging in China is at the early stage of economic development,there is a tradeoff between contribution rate and competitiveness during globalization.On the other hand,urbanization is happening with population aging,more and more rural workers covered by urban system will decrease the dependent ratio of the system.With the number of elderly people in rural system declining,there is more possibility to raise the standard of government subsidy.In the long run,social security in an aging population essentially depends on an increasing of labor productivity.