房地产价格对我国城镇居民消费的长短期影响研究

考虑居民收入等级不同,对住房属性偏重不同,将居民分为不受到流动性约束型、不完全受到流动性约束型、完全受到流动性约束型三类.基于各自目标函数及约束条件,确定动态面板模型检验房价与消费的协整关系,并构建动态面板误差修正模型,结果显示:全国层面,收入是影响消费的核心因素,房价上涨、预期房价上涨影响消费为挤出效应,且存在长期均衡关系;居民层面:不受到流动性约束的居民,收入不是消费的重要因素,而其余两类居民的消费受收入、习惯强度影响较大,且流动性约束越强,影响更为明显;不受到流动性约束的居民,在短期及长期内,房价上涨、预期房价上涨影响消费为财富效应;而其余两类居民,影响为挤出效应,强度大于前者的财富效应,且流动性约束越强,抑制作用更为显著.

The Research on Short- and Long-term Influences of the Real Estate Prices on Consumption

In terms of the income differences,and preference differences in housing dual at-tributes,residents are divided into three groups:residents with liquidity not being constrained, residents with liquidity not being fully constrained,and residents with liquidity being completely constrained.Based on their respective objective function and constraint conditions,a dynamic panel model is constructed to determine the cointegration relationship between house prices and consumption,and build dynamic panel error correction model.The results show that:①on the national level,income is the core factor,and the effect of housing price rise and expected housing price rise on consumption is a squeezing effect;②on the resident level,for residents with no liq-uidity constraint,income is not an important factor of consumption,and the other two groups' consumption are greatly influenced by income and habits--the stronger the liquidity constraints, the more obvious the effect;for residents with no liquidity constraints,in the short and long term,prices rising and expected price rising affect wealth,thus in turn affects consumption;the other two types of residents experience the effect of crowding out;the strength is greater than the former wealth effect,and the stronger the liquidity constraint,the more significant the inhibition effect.