Will low technology products disappear?: The hidden innovation processes in low technology industries

Political discussions and analyses have usually been devoted to an understanding of the development of high technology products, although low technology products have dominated the industrial structure of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. The important role of low technology products in these countries raises the question of whether we can observe a technological paradox in the industrial structure of the more advanced nations, the dominant role of this sector in spite of its competitive disadvantages because of high wages. Using the Danish packaging industry as an example, a central thesis in the article is that innovation processes are important in low technology industries. They are also often an integrated part of the marketing and production functions of the firm. The innovation processes in the low technology industries are therefore too complex for traditional R&D analyses to handle. The article points out that—especially in small firms—the “practical man” and his “tacit knowledge” play a very central role in both product and process development, and that low technology, even in the future, will play a central role in the industrial structure of the OECD countries.     

新一轮产业革命背景下突破性技术创新与中国产业转型升级

突破性技术创新是推动产业转型升级的重要驱动力,具有显著的技术颠覆性、非连续性和产业关联带动作用等特征。新一轮产业革命背景下,突破性技术创新不断涌现,为后发经济体实现产业赶超提供了机会窗口。通过对突破性技术创新内涵及特征进行理论溯源,提炼出突破性技术创新对产业转型升级的作用机理和路径;以人工智能技术应用为例,分析了突破性技术创新对我国三次产业升级的影响;提出了加快突破性技术创新发展、促进我国产业转型升级的对策思路,即强化基础性创新研究,加大对行业共性突破性技术创新的支持,发挥新一代信息技术、产业融合以及金融的作用。     

产业共性技术扩散三阶段模型构建与仿真研究

结合产业共性技术相关理论与技术扩散模型，以政府作用为调节变量，构建产业共性技术扩散的三阶段仿真模型，对产业共性技术扩散三阶段演化特征进行探讨，借助Matlab平台对主体采纳行为和共性技术扩散速度进行仿真，并以我国新能源汽车产业共性技术扩散为例对仿真结果进行实证检验。研究结果表明：产业共性技术扩散先后经历了权威决策、二次创新以及附随扩散3个阶段;产业共性技术扩散的企业采纳比例遵循“S”型曲线规律，而产业共性技术扩散速度出现了“上升-下降-再上升”的“N”型走势;直接采纳二次研发成果的企业，对产业共性技术扩散影响较大;政府在整个产业共性技术扩散过程中发挥关键作用，但在扩散不同阶段政府介入方式与程度会有所差异;二次创新投入比例与成功率影响产业共性技术扩散规模和速度;只有将产业共性技术转化成专有技术或新产品，才能实现共性技术有效扩散。     

产业共性技术政府支持性研究

基于产业共性技术的公共品特性,政府理应在推动产业共性技术发展中发挥积极作用,这对于加速产业结构升级及创新型国家建设具有重要意义。为了加强政府对产业共性技术发展的支持力度,更好地推动共性技术的创新发展,我国应强化顶层设计,加强产业共性技术创新发展战略规划;完善产业共性技术平台建设,优化共性技术的扩散机制;健全技术经济政策;支持产业共性技术的研发;扩散和应用     

后技术赶超时期创新赶超模式研究

当前，中国企业技术赶超活动已经进入“后技术赶超阶段”，不少企业开始调整技术追赶战略，以加快技术赶超进程。通过对中国高铁、通讯行业、汽车产业和芯片产业等系列产业的比较发现：要最终实现技术超越，必须实施自主创新战略，并构建适应产业特征和技术范式的创新网络。此外，还要充分利用技术追赶过程中的机会窗口，并根据产业特征、技术范式和竞争范式处理好政府与企业的角色定位。     

Report on a new technological community: The making of a technopolis in an international context

In 1980 the Japanese government conceptualized technopolises. Nine technopolises are already in operation in 1984, and several more will follow. A technopolis is a healthy living environment with cultural amenities combined with high technology industries, away from the existing overcrowded industrial centers and adapted to local characteristics. This article focuses on the most advanced technopolis on the “Silicon Island” Kyushu, describes its process of development, and its future advantages and disadvantages compared to other technopolises.     

A re-examination of the technological catching-up hypothesis across OECD industries

This study re-examines the catching-up hypothesis at the industry level across the main OECD countries, using panel data econometric models involving technological gap indicators calculated with a nonparametric distance function suggested by Färe et al. [Färe, R.S., Grosskopf, M.N., Norris, M., Xhang, Z., 1994. Productivity growth, technical progress, and efficiency change in industrialized countries. American Economic Review 84, 66–83]. The results show that there is statistical evidence of a catching-up process at the industry level. Moreover, both tradables and nontradables sectors exhibit catching-up effects and technology adoption from abroad. This result complements the findings by Bernard and Jones [Bernard, A.B., Jones, C.I., 1996a. Comparing apples to oranges: productivity convergence and measurement across industries and countries. American Economic Review 86(5), 1216–1238., Bernard, A.B., Jones, C.I., 1996b. Productivity across industries and countries: Time series theory and evidence. Review Of Economics and Statistics 78, 135–146], Gouyette and Perelman [Gouyette, C., Perelman, S., 1997. Productivity convergence in OECD services industries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 8, 279–295] and Hansson and Henrekson [Hansson, P., Henrekson, M., 1997. Catching up, social capability, government size and economic growth, in V. Bergström, eds, Government and Growth, Oxford: Clarendon Press, 61–126] that there is no (or even a slow) catching-up effect in the manufacturing sector. Moreover, social capability indicators evaluated for each country show that “Non-European” and “Central European” tradables sectors have a rather similar degree of inefficiency while “North European” countries are less efficient for both tradables and non-tradables. Lastly, both the cross country and the cross sectors dispersions of inefficiency levels are smaller for tradables sectors than for non-tradables.     

Institutional support for technological improvement — The case of Hungary

The technological “time warp” in which Hungary, like other Central and Eastern European countries, has found itself since the 1950s is at an end. This article concentrates on the transformation of institutional structures that support innovation and industrial technological development. First, it summarizes the types of institutions that support technological development. In a market economy, the process of generation and diffusion of innovation largely depends on the institutional and economic structure of the country. In a narrower sense, those institutions might be included in this group whose aim is wholly or in part to assist firms in experimenting with, understanding, and implementing new products and new production processes and improving quality. This article then details forms of inter-firm cooperation and highlights some empirical research findings based on three sectors — the pharmaceutical, machine tool, and car parts industries — which represent three different cases in the restructuring of Hungarian manufacturing. The main lesson of the study is that industry during its redeployment can create few demands for technology development institutes. Because of inherited structure, the accumulated knowledge of existing institutes and the supply and scattered demand of industry for technological support do not regularly coincide.     

Disruptive technology roadmaps

Disruptive technologies create growth in the industries they penetrate or create entirely new industries through the introduction of products and services that are dramatically cheaper, better, and more convenient. These disruptive technologies often disrupt workforce participation by allowing technologically unsophisticated individuals to enter and become competitive in the industrial workforce. Disruptive technologies offer a revolutionary change in the conduct of processes or operations.Disruptive technologies can evolve from the confluence of seemingly diverse technologies or can be a result of an entirely new technological investigation. Existing planning processes are notoriously poor in identifying the mix of sometimes highly disparate technologies required to address the multiple performance objectives of a particular niche in the market. For a number of reasons, especially the inability to look beyond short-term profitability, and the risk/return tradeoff of longer term projects, it is suggested that current strategic planning and management processes promote sustaining technologies at the expense of disruptive technologies.We propose a systematic approach to identify disruptive technologies that is realistic and operable and takes advantage of the text mining literature. This literature-based discovery process is especially useful in identifying potential disruptive technologies that may require the input from many diverse technological and management areas. We believe that this process holds great potential for identifying projects with a higher probability of downstream success. Further, we suggest a process to take the identified potential disruptive technology from the “idea stage” through to the development of a potentially feasible product for the market. This second stage makes use of workshops and roadmapping to codify the ideas of technological and management experts, who were identified in the literature-based discovery stage. Our goal is to describe and explain the pragmatic steps suggested by our innovative and practical process.The proposed process could identify technologies whose eventual development and application to specific problems would generate innovative products. The goal is to isolate technologies that have the potential to redefine an industry, or alternatively, have the potential to create an entirely new industrial setting. Use the text-mining component of literature-based discovery to identify both the technical disciplines that are likely candidates for disruptive technological products, and experts in these critical technical and managerial disciplines. While we know that this is but one way to investigate nascent disruptive technologies we feel it is imperative that the representatives of these potentially critical technical disciplines are included in the roadmap development process, either as implementers or as consultants.Every firm is looking for “the next great thing”. Literature-based discovery offers a starting point for identifying at least a portion of the major contributory technical and managerial disciplines necessary for potential disruptive technologies and discontinuous innovations. Combining literature-based discovery with a practical workshop/roadmap process dramatically enhances the likelihood of success.     

Coping with Technology Divergence Policies and Strategies for India’s Industrial Development

Recent studies on innovation have demonstrated the relationship between technology and growth. However, as most of them are centered on the experience of the highly industrialized nations, a different approach to technology policy must be taken. As late industrializers, developing countries lag in adopting foreign technologies. Institutional factors and economic policy also influence the diffusion process. With decentralized decision making, the coexistence of diverse technologies in a given industrial branch is inevitable. Consequently, social costs tend to be high because of duplication of efforts, reduced learning opportunities, and adoption of inefficient technologies. This article examines the coexistence of diverse technologies leading to technology fragmentation in India’s steel industry. Recent innovative behavior in the Japanese and Korean steel industry indicates that the effects of fragmentation can be contained through a policy of “system integration.” This is an institutional process by which industry-specific applications of scientific knowledge are fused with basic research itself. This demands a forward-looking policy that rejuvenates older industries, such as steel, in socially acceptable ways and organically creates new knowledge for national development and social welfare.     

高技术产业绿色技术创新效率及其规模质量门槛效应

提高绿色技术创新能力是新时期推进产业高质量发展的重要途径。基于2008－2017年全国内地28省市面板数据,引入政府扶持强度、地区经济发展水平和科技水平等环境变量,利用随机前沿函数构建高技术产业绿色技术创新三阶段组合效率测度模型,并在此基础上构建面板门槛模型实证分析企业规模质量对绿色技术创新效率的影响机理。研究表明,政府扶持强度、地区经济发展水平和科技水平对高技术产业绿色技术创新效率表现出显著异质性影响,而在消除环境因素造成的统计偏差后,国内高技术产业绿色技术创新效率在测度期内呈稳步提升态势,但尚有较大提升空间;高技术产业绿色技术创新效率存在明显的地域空间差异特征,其中东部地区居高,中西部及东北部地区相对较低;此外,高技术产业企业规模质量对绿色技术创新效率具有双重门槛效应,产业集聚、市场环境、劳动者素质对绿色技术创新效率具有显著正向影响,而外资依存度作用不明显。     

我国汽车产业创新生态系统演进的影响因素研究

将汽车产业与创新生态系统相结合,从创新主体、创新资源和创新环境三方面总结归纳影响我国汽车产业创新生态系统演进的因素,并对其中的经济、政府、市场、自然资源、人才、技术、资金七个维度因素选取衡量指标,收集2006-2017年的产业数据,采用主成分回归方法分析因素对产业生态系统演进的影响。结果表明,影响系统演进的三个主要影响因素分别是市场经济、人才支持、政府扶持,且影响程度大小依次是：人才支持、市场经济、政府扶持。     

产业技术创新战略联盟的性质、分类与政府支持

产业技术创新战略联盟是合作研发的组织模式之一,承载着产业发展的目标,通过合作研发取得产业共性技术,并在联盟和全行业中扩散,最终实现产业竞争力的提升。产业共性技术的复杂性和准公共品性质、联盟合作创新的困境,决定了政府支持产业技术创新战略联盟的必要性。产业技术创新战略联盟有多种类型,政府应针对不同类型的联盟提供不同的支持。在明确产业技术创新战略联盟的内涵及性质的基础上,按照3个维度对其进行了分类,并借鉴国外经验给出了当前我国政府提供政策支持的建议。     

Toward an analytical industry classification

Two kinds of difficulties retard progress in technological forecasting uncertainties inherent in the subject itself and imprecision in its concepts. The latter difficulty exists whenever words have to be used in a general or traditional sense due to the lack of an agreed-upon operational definition. One such word and concept is industry [1]. The object of this paper is to present an operational definition of “industry” for use in forecasting, R&D, or innovative contexts, and to show how predictive, rather than just analogue, statements can then be made about industry and industries.     

产业集聚对技术创新的非线性影响

从行业异质性的视角入手,将中国制造业的28个细分行业分为4类——劳动密集型、资本密集型、技术密集型和资源密集型,在控制了研发费用投入、外商直接投资、制度因素和行业规模等后,采用非线性门限模型考察了不同类型制造业行业的产业集聚对本产业技术创新的影响。研究表明:产业集聚对产业技术创新的影响并非单调递增(递减),该影响在不同行业、不同集聚区存在明显的差异性,即随着产业集聚度的不断提高,产业集聚对技术创新产生先正后负的影响。政府在制定产业政策时,切忌走入盲目集聚或降低集聚度的误区,应针对不同行业的要素特征和发展阶段,采取差异化的集聚政策。     

中国战略性新兴产业培育与发展支撑体系建设研究

战略性新兴产业的形成和发展有其内在的产业和技术成长规律,需要具备一定的产业和技术基础及较为完善的支撑体系。中国发展战略性新兴产业面临着体制性障碍、产业基础区域差距悬殊、核心技术缺乏、基础研究薄弱等问题,可借鉴欧美发达国家战略性新兴产业培育和发展的经验启示,积极整合生产要素、技术要素、市场需求、产业政策等各大要素的作用,构建完善的产业支撑体系、政策支撑体系和服务支撑体系,以促进中国战略性新兴产业的稳健发展。     

Government industrial policy for a healthy world economy

The Japanese concept of “industrial policy” is the subject of this presentation. The central role of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry in the formulation of industrial policy for Japan over the past 35 years is reviewed. Several strategic phases are identified: 1945–1952, reconstruction of the economy; 1952–1960, comparative advantage strategy in capital-intensive industries; 1960–1973, transition to an open economy; 1973 to present, positive support policy for promising industries, e.g., subsidies for high-tech sectors and adjustive policy for declining industries (e.g., disposing of excess capacity in the textile sector). The advantages of National industrial policies for the world economy are indicated.     

Cross-national and cross-industrial comparison of two strategy approaches for global industrial evolution

This research focuses on analyzing the two prime science and technology (S&T) strategy approaches for industrial evolution based on the concept of S&T gap, namely, the optimist and pragmatist approaches. Particularly, the cases of global IC, pharmaceutical, and computer industries, are used to make cross-national and cross-industrial comparison of these two approaches. The optimist approach is developed based on the product life cycle theory which envisions technology transcending everyday limitations. With this perspective, market demand is the most critical factor in selecting the S&T strategy approaches. The pragmatist approach is formed based on the new trade theory which recognizes the power of science and technology but seeks to fit it into structures that already exist, and government must manage resources pouring into science and technology. Case studies of global IC, pharmaceutical, and computer industries during the 2nd half of the 20th century are used as research targets to reflect policy impacts on the technological evolution. The results of this study reveal that, strategy approaches have to be adapted and turned to the specific stage, technology level, and market segment that have been selected for intervention. This result of comparison also offers the criteria of strategy selection for developing different industry based on distinct national base.     

A model of “coupled” technology transfer : A logistic curve approach

This article presents a mathematical model relating to the technology transfer problem. The origin of the problem stems from the existing trade-offs between the strategies of “technological progressiveness” and “static efficiency” employed by firms or countries defined as “leaders” and “followers,” respectively. The formulation of the model is based on the assumption that the technological development of a firm or a country follows a logistic growth curve when related to a specific technology. During the process of a “coupled” technology transfer, the development of the follower changes and its behavior is described by a first order nonhomogenous deferential equation. Different scenarios of the “coupled” technology transfer between the leader and the follower are being discussed.     

Defense conversion into a global system of proprietary technologies: The case of Taiwan''s aircraft industry

To further industrial development, Taiwan's government has officially targeted the aircraft industry, specifically the Aero Industry Development Center (AIDC)—producer of Taiwan's combat aircraft with a two-and-a-half-decade history. However, despite AIDC's experience in aerodynamics, structure, and engines, redirecting its engineering and production capabilities for commercial jets poses many difficulties. Because military and civilian needs of aircraft design are very different, the commercial benefits of military work on airframes are minimal. In contract manufacturing, one critical factor is efficiency, but AIDC is still relatively weak in scale economies, scope economies, and experience curve. Another critical factor is technology, but most functional and design specifications and standards are imposed by the upper-tier buyers and the integrators. Moreover, neither spin-off nor dual-use strategy can apply effectively, leaving AIDC an enclave isolated from local industry. Overall, the prospect of AIDC's defense conversion is dismal. The military does not have the capability to endorse the transformation; the civilian government is not familiar with the commercial practices; the local firms are not interested in entering this industry; the commercial businesses are largely controlled by the world leading integrators; and, most important, AIDC's core competence is fairly weak. The case typifies a government's futile efforts in a global industry of complex proprietary technological systems.