ON THE “PRO‐POORNESS” OF GROWTH IN A MULTIDIMENSIONAL CONTEXT

This paper represents a first attempt to bring together the issues of multidimensional poverty and growth “pro‐poorness” assessments. More specifically, we suggest the use of sequential dominance procedures to test the “pro‐poorness” of observed growth spells when poverty is measured on the basis of income and another discrete well‐being attribute. Sequential procedures are also used to obtain graphical tools that are consistent with the spirit of Ravallion and Chen's growth incidence curve and Son's poverty growth curve. Contrary to traditional unidimensional tests, our method makes it possible to take into account the importance of deprivation correlations at the individual level and thus may reverse results observed with the traditional tools used to check the “pro‐poorness” of growth. An illustration of our approach is given using Turkish data for the period 2003–05.     

Consumption dynamics and inequality of opportunity with an application to Uganda

This paper proposes the adoption of an opportunity egalitarian perspective to assess and compare growth processes and their distributional implications. To this aim, a set of graphical tools are introduced that allow one to evaluate the role of growth and recessions in the evolution of individuals’ opportunities over time. These tools satisfy the ex post principle of equality of opportunity and represent an extension of the “opportunity growth incidence curve,” a framework proposed by the literature to evaluate growth according to the ex ante principle of equality of opportunity. This measurement framework is applied to evaluate the economic dynamic between 2009 and 2011 in Uganda. The results show that despite a reduction in the real value of household consumption and a surge in outcome inequality, its effects appear to be less dramatic when the ex post equality of opportunity perspective is invoked.     

金融发展与经济增长——基于1952-2007年中国数据的再检验

本文分别以金融抑制论和金融结构论为指导,根据中国的实际情况,建立数学模型,进行多元回归分析,并利用VAR因果关系检验和方差分解探索中国金融发展与经济增长之间的关系.结论表明:(1)无论是金融抑制论还是金融结构论,金融发展与经济增长之间存在显著的正相关;(2)对于模型1来说,金融发展与经济增长存在单向因果关系,属于需求追随型;而模型2并没有显示金融发展与经济增长存在明显的因果关系,以银行为主导的金融结构通过内在传导机制对经济增长产生影响;(3)从金融发展对经济波动解释的力度来看,金融抑制论对解释金融发展与经济增长之间的关系比较弱,而金融结构论对经济增长的解释力要强.因此,在强调市场对金融资源优化配置的同时,更加关注以银行业为主导的金融机构改革,理顺金融发展与经济增长内在机制,以实现金融发展与经济增长相互促进、共同发展的目标.     

中国对外贸易对经济增长作用的实证分析

采用协整检验和格兰杰因果检验的方法,分析了中国对外贸易与经济增长之间的关系。研究表明,对外贸易与经济增长存在长期的稳定关系,且进口的产出弹性相对较大,出口与经济增长之间存在单项的因果关系。因此,中国经济增长还是处于出口导向型的经济增长,同时在加大出口的同时,要重视进口的作用。     

DEPRECIATION, OBSOLESCENCE AND THE ROLE OF CAPITAL IN GROWTH ACCOUNTING

Maurice Scott has argued that the neoclassical production function and growth accounting are fundamentally flawed as tools for understanding the growth process. If the role of capital were correctly evaluated, then (he argues) the famous 'residual' of growth accounting would disappear. Contrary to these claims, this paper seeks to show that growth accounting gives correct answers to interesting questions, even when all technical progress is embodied in new capital goods and even when depreciation is entirely due to obsolescence.     

基于创新型企业成长视角的国外创业政策述评

本文对国外支持创新型企业成长的创业政策进行了综述,分析总结了国外创业政策的含义和目标、创业政策工具的种类和其有效性研究以及改进政策效果的途径。这有利于我国有效制定和实施创业政策,从而促进我国创新型企业的快速成长,推动就业、区域创新和地区经济的发展。     

从马尔萨斯到索洛:工业革命理论综述

不发达国家的经济怎么才能实现长期而稳定的增长,并达到发达经济,这是经济学家所长期追寻的目标。19世纪以来接连出现的大量国家相继走上富裕之路,给经济学家提供了丰富的研究素材,但受制于分析工具的不完备,该领域的研究长期未取得大的进展。20世纪90年代中后期,对该问题的研究有了新的、统一的分析框架,形成了工业革命的研究领域,这项研究试图统一人口增长理论、制度经济学、经济增长理论和发展经济学。本文就该理论的进展进行了综述,并对可能的发展方向做了简要评述。     

中国货币政策对价格波动的影响

货币发行量对CPI变动具有负的影响。当前中国CPI居高不下,长期以来,中国一直存在着货币增速超过CPI增速、货币政策对资产泡沫的估算和调节能力有限、通胀指标难以确定等问题,针对这些情况,我们应综合运用货币政策工具,保持货币信贷合理投放,加大金融支持经济发展方式转变和经济结构调整的力度。完善人民币汇率形成机制,采取"外堵内疏"的策略,遏制国际投机资本冲击国内金融市场。     

Forecasting emerging technologies: Use of bibliometrics and patent analysis

It is rather difficult to forecast emerging technologies as there is no historical data available. In such cases, the use of bibliometrics and patent analysis have provided useful data. This paper presents the forecasts for three emerging technology areas by integrating the use of bibliometrics and patent analysis into well-known technology forecasting tools such as scenario planning, growth curves and analogies. System dynamics is also used to be able to model the dynamic ecosystem of the technologies and their diffusion. Technologies being forecasted are fuel cell, food safety and optical storage technologies. Results from these three applications help us to validate the proposed methods as appropriate tools to forecast emerging technologies.     

环境保护、能源替代和经济增长——国内外理论研究综述

20世纪70年代以来,很多学者基于增长模型的角度对能源消耗和经济增长的关系进行了研究,但所得到的结论都较为悲观。近年来,经济学者开始考虑通过政府管制、技术进步和能源替代来纠正污染问题和资源过度消费带来的经济扭曲。本文基于新经济增长理论的视角,从三个方面(不同环境管制工具的政策效果及其对经济体和能源系统的影响,能源技术创新对经济增长的影响,能源替代对实现可持续发展的作用)对国内外涉及能源、环境和经济增长的研究进行梳理。     

对外开放与中国经济增长关系的实证研究

Based on an adjusted Solow economic growth model, using econometric tools such as cointegration test and Granger causality test, taking the economic factors such as foreign trade and foreign investment into account, this paper makes regression analysis on the effect of economic opening on China’s economic growth by using the data from 1985 to 2004. The analysis indicates that the domestic capital input is still the primary element that promotes China’s economic growth, by contrast, the effect of foreign trade and foreign investment is faint. It is a bidirectional causality between foreign trade and economic growth, and the adjusting velocity of trade is larger than the foreign direct investment on the balance of the China’s long-time economic growth.      

基于“索洛余值法”测算湖北TFP贡献率的实证分析

在当前市场体制下,推动经济增长的主要力量逐渐由资本、劳动等物质要素转向以技术为代表的综合要素生产率（TFP）因素,资本与劳动之外的综合生产要素对经济增长的贡献率已成为判定区域经济增长模式的主要指标之一,特别是中国已经迎来刘易斯拐点（Lewis Turning-Point）和人口红利逐渐消失的情况下,综合要素生产率取代投入成为经济增长新的驱动力显得尤为重要。根据湖北省近年来相关经济数据,运用Cobb—Douglas生产函数和索洛余值计算TFP对经济增长的贡献率,最终就如何进一步提高湖北省的综合要素生产率提出相关建议。     

双支柱调控的金融稳定效应研究

本文基于全球42个主要经济体1991—2016年的面板数据,系统考察了双支柱政策框架的金融稳定效应。实证结果表明：（1）货币政策和宏观审慎政策在抑制家庭信贷增长上具有显著作用,双支柱政策在缓解金融风险顺周期性上具有显著的金融稳定效应;（2）盯住贷款的宏观审慎工具和针对借款人、贷款人的宏观审慎组合具有更为显著的金融稳定效应;（3）新兴经济体的货币政策在抑制家庭信贷扩张上的作用不显著,但其宏观审慎政策的金融稳定效应相较发达经济体更为显著,发达经济体双支柱政策的金融稳定效应总体显著,其中货币政策效应更为突出;（4）发达经济体的货币政策效应在下行周期优于上行周期,宏观审慎政策及其与货币政策的交互效应在上行周期优于下行周期;（5）只有个别宏观审慎工具会对失业率、消费和物价产生微弱的负效应。     

Changes in the relationship between short‐term interest rate,inflation and growth: evidence from the UK, 1820–2014

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between interest rates, inflation and economic growth using a long dataset for the UK. The approach adopted enables us to identify structural breaks in the dynamic system (vector autoregression (VAR)). We find interest rates respond much more strongly to growth and inflation over recent decades, and forecast error variance decomposition analysis indicates there is increasing interconnectedness between the variables in recent years. Economic policymakers need to carefully monitor the linkages between these variables and be prepared to adjust their monetary policy tools when faced with structural changes.     

Maximizing Behavior: Reconciling Neoclassical and X-Efficiency Approaches

International capital flows are constrained by a lack of complementary human capital, information asymmetries and transaction costs for small loan sizes. Extant research has provided a myriad of economic and cultural explanations of how microcredit has overcome these. Based on these, the paper develops a simple economic framework that accounts for these behavioral and institutional factors: a discontinuous marginal revenue curve and a U-shaped supply curve of capital for the microcredit environment. It then uses these analytical tools to explain capital flows and interest rates charged by traditional moneylenders. Finally, it uses these tools to present the growth of microcredit and the increase in financial flows and to explain why microcredit interest rates are lower than those of moneylenders, but higher than those of commercial banks to wealthier borrowers.     

The Pacific basin in world trade an analysis of changing trade patterns, 1955–1975

In two previous papers by the same authors the data basis for the trade flows and the export prices in the Pacific Basin has presented and documented. In this third report the changing pattern of Pacific Basin trade over the period 1955–1975 is analyzed, using as tools export growth decomposition indexes, trend analysis, and regression analysis of the price elasticity of import market shares.     

Local industrial policy and productivity: Evidence from China

Subnational governments played key roles in China's past rapid growth, and local industrial policy was among their most frequently used tools. Using a plausible comprehensive local industrial policies variable constructed using local Five-Year Plans and a comprehensive dataset of all medium and large firms in China between 1998 and 2013, this paper attempts to understand whether such interventions are helpful for China's growth. Our results indicate that although local industrial policies attract more low productivity firms, they do achieve their purpose of improving the productivity of the targeted sectors, at firm and city levels, especially in the long run.     

Veblen and Kropotkin on Human Evolution

This paper studies the spillover effects of economic fluctuations in the United States on economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean. Fluctuations in U.S. GDP growth have spillover effects that stimulate real growth and accelerate price inflation across many countries. Underlying these spillover effects are significant movements in private consumption, and to a larger extent, private investment. Openness to the United States has significant effects that accelerate growth of exports and/or imports across many countries. The net effects on the trade and current account balances vary across countries. Overall, the evidence supports concerns about adverse spillover effects of a slowdown in the U.S. economy on neighboring countries, necessitating careful mobilization of countercyclical domestic tools to hedge against potential risk and mitigate the severity of economic downturns.     

A taxonomic review of methods and tools applied in technology assessment

Technology Assessment (TA) has been a growing field of management study for the past four decades. An increasing number of studies have been carried out over the years contributing to the development of TA literature. Some of these studies summarized the history and growth of the field during its evolution. However, there has been no effort made to present an overview of the methods and tools that have been cited in TA literature. This paper attempts to fill that void. A thorough review of the TA articles published in leading journals in the management of technology field is conducted to identify the research methods or tools in those studies. The paper provides an introductory review of the use of technology assessment terminology during its development, which helps the readers avoid the confusion of the TA concept since its origination in public decision making forty years ago and where it is now — widely adopted in other sectors. A thorough presentation of the approaches, methods and tools that have been introduced or employed in both mainstream TA and “inverted TA” studies is then provided. The main content of the paper is related to the works published in leading international journals that involve certain research methods or techniques.     

创造性破坏与收入差距的振荡式扩大

本文试图运用熊彼特的技术创新和“创造性破坏”理论来解释收入差距振荡式扩大的动态特征。研究的结论是在以“创造性破坏”为特征的经济增长过程中,收入差距会扩大,而且创造性破坏的程度越强,经济增长速度越高,收入差距越大。其社会基础和原因是社会分工和阶层差异,这种差异会在经济增长过程中再度拉大。在方法上,本文用物理模型形象地描述了差距扩大过程,揭示了增长模型中定点状态分析方法的缺陷。对具体过程进行分析表明,收入差距扩大的方式为振荡式,这种振荡特征由个体和技术之间的动态竞争性质———“创造性破坏”决定。美国家庭收入的经验分析证实,在动态竞争的经济增长过程中,收入差距确实在振荡中扩大。