Effects of aid for trade on extensive and intensive margins of greenfield FDI

Using a panel dataset of 105 developing countries for the period 2003–15, this paper assesses the effects of Aid for Trade (AfT) on greenfield FDI flows to the aid‐recipient countries. Particularly, this paper classifies the total dollar value of greenfield FDI flows to each recipient country in terms of four different layers: the extensive and intensive margins of projects as well as the extensive and intensive margins of source countries. Applying the system GMM estimator, this paper finds that AfT not only increases the dollar value of FDI flows to the recipient countries but also helps diversify the greenfield projects and source countries. In addition, this paper finds that AfT has a greater effect for greenfield FDI from donor (developed) countries than from non‐donor (developing) countries. Among the three components of AfT, aid for trade‐related infrastructure and aid for trade policy regulations are found to have positive links with greenfield FDI, irrespective of source‐country groups, yet their effects are larger for developed source countries. In contrast, aid for building productive capacity hinders greenfield FDI flows from non‐donor countries, while it promotes greenfield FDI from donor countries. We offer some explanations for this finding.     

高科技社会我国风险沟通重塑

高科技社会衍生“人为风险”，西方发达高科技国家倡导新型风险沟通，而后发场域由于系统落差，呈现出迟滞型风险沟通。通过构建全球化高科技风险社会、全球本地化风险沟通的新分析框架，发现高科技社会我国风险沟通面临着风险的社会放大、气泡结构、路径互动阙如、手段叠加、目标战略缺失、过程碎片化等迟滞困境。通过创新理念、吸纳型风险沟通、复合式路径、平衡化手段、连续统、政府学习和政府职能的“七位一体”再造，可有效重塑高科技社会我国风险沟通，推进国家风险治理体系和治理能力现代化。     

Larger,counter-intuitive and lasting – The PSM role in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic,exploring opportunities for theoretical and actionable advances

PSM has played an important role in the initial mitigation of risks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. We explore the nature and scope of this role and develop a roadmap for PSM contributions towards greater supply chain resilience. We find that the role of PSM is (1) multidimensional; responding to supply risks but also to demand and logistics risks, (2) counter to game theory; collaboration increased instead of decrease, (3) multi-stage; beyond the initial response the hardest change efforts are still ahead. The pandemic is accelerating the journey towards future-proof PSM but not necessarily revolutionizing the future of PSM.     

Financial development,economic growth and convergence clubs

To study the role of financial development in economic growth, we apply an array of convergence tests designed to capture nonlinear transitional dynamics to real outputs per capita. Strong evidence of multiple convergence clubs is observed, implying that the clubs are formed based on the initial level of real output per capita and average growth rate. Our empirical results show that the stage of economic growth of each country plays an important role for the composition of the convergence clubs. Furthermore, financial development emerges to be a significant determinant, albeit plays differently in the economic growth of each convergence club.     

颠覆性技术识别与预测方法研究进展

为了把握颠覆性技术识别与预测方法研究进展，首先对颠覆性的内涵、特征和运行机制进行论述；然后，通过对已有文献进行系统梳理，将识别与预测方法分为5类，分别展开详述；最后，对各类方法进行比较分析。研究发现，已有颠覆性技术识别与预测方法仍处于发展的初期阶段，所有识别研究方法均围绕颠覆性技术的外部影响或内在特征中的某一方面展开，并未将二者有机结合起来。未来，应综合把握颠覆性技术内外部特征，构建全面、系统的识别与预测框架。     

Unbiased estimation of expected return using CAPM

Estimation of expected return is required for many financial decisions. For example, an estimate for cost of capital is required for capital budgeting and cost of equity estimates are needed for performance evaluation based on measures such as EVA. Estimates for expected return are often based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which states that expected excess return (expected return minus the risk-free rate) is equal to the asset's sensitivity to the world market portfolio (β) times the risk premium on the “world market portfolio” (the market risk premium). Since the world market portfolio, by definition, contains all assets in the world, it is not observable. As a result, an estimate for expected return is commonly obtained by taking an estimate for β based on some index (as a proxy for the world market portfolio) and an estimate for the market risk premium based on a potentially different index and multiplying them together. In this paper, it is shown that this results in a biased estimate for expected return. This is undesirable since biased estimates lead to misallocation of funds and biased performance measures. It is also shown in this paper that the straightforward procedure suggested by Fama and MacBeth [J. Financ. Econ. 1 (1974) 43] results in an unbiased estimate for expected return. Further from the analysis done, it follows that, for an unbiased estimate, it does not matter what proxy is used, as long as it is used correctly an unbiased estimate for expected return results.     

工商管理类专业课程教学质量监控体系研究

课程教学质量是高等学校的生命线，学分制模式下，工商管理类专业课程因其本身固有的特性，课程教学质量的提升在较大程度上依托于一个完善的质量监控体系的有效运作，为此高校要采取措施，在内部构建起课程教学质量的监控体系来确保人才培养质量，从而提高办学水平。     

Discussion on the Benefits Distributing Structure in Village Land Deal

According to everyone average welfare value of land resources; this paper constitutes the base line of glebe usufruct deal value by analyzing the factors, which are affecting glebe usufruct deal value. Having adopted share＇s quotient of ownership and contracting power, the paper erects assigning mechanism to the income of glebe deal. Because of the share dynarnicity being adopted which shows the flexible strong points, the shares of ownership and contracting power avoid many unnecessary otiose disputes on income of glebe deal, adding the stability to the glebe usufruct deal. It is beneficial to the freedom flow and validity manufacture factor installment and also to the nonagricultural changing course.     

乡镇企业与小城镇良性互动的对策思考

发展乡镇企业和小城镇,是中国解决农业、农村、农民问题的两个重大战略和根本方针,而二者又是互相影响、相互制约的。它们的协调发展对发展农业、富裕农民、繁荣农村、实现国民经济的快速健康发展具有重要意义。应坚持保护农业和农民利益、市场化、法制化等原则,从宏观和微观方面采取得力措施,实现二者的良性互动。     

城市科学20年的发展历程--祝贺中国城市科学研究会成立20周年

回顾北京市城市科学研究会的发展历程,分为多学科协同研究城市问题阶段;城市发展多学科综合研究阶段;城市发展综合研究向重点领域开展阶段.概括了北京城科会的主要学术成果.