失败学习对企业绩效的影响机制研究

已有文献认为失败学习对企业绩效具有重要作用，但失败学习通过何种途径促进企业绩效提升的研究并不完善。基于失败学习理论，引入资源拼凑和机会识别作为中介变量，构建失败学习影响企业绩效的多路径模型，探索失败学习对企业绩效的驱动路径及内在机理。实证结果表明：失败学习对企业绩效具有显著积极作用，资源拼凑和机会识别分别在失败学习与企业绩效之间起中介作用，资源拼凑和机会识别在失败学习对企业绩效驱动过程中存在链式中介作用，战略柔性能够强化资源拼凑与企业绩效之间的关系，并正向调节资源拼凑的中介作用。研究结论拓展了失败学习对企业绩效的影响路径，对企业复苏和成长具有重要启示。     

Structural estimation of behavioral heterogeneity

We develop a behavioral asset pricing model in which agents trade in a market with information friction. Profit‐maximizing agents switch between trading strategies in response to dynamic market conditions. Owing to noisy private information about the fundamental value, the agents form different evaluations about heterogeneous strategies. We exploit a thin set—a small sub‐population—to point identify this nonlinear model, and estimate the structural parameters using extended method of moments. Based on the estimated parameters, the model produces return time series that emulate the moments of the real data. These results are robust across different sample periods and estimation methods.     

Stochastic Payments per Claim Incurred

We propose a Bayesian model to quantify the uncertainty associated with the payments per claim incurred (PPCI) algorithm. Based on the PPCI algorithm, two submodels are proposed for the number of reported claims run-off triangle and the PPCI run-off triangle, respectively. The model for the claims amount is then derived from the two submodels under the assumption of independence between the number of incurred claims and the PPCI. The joint likelihood of the number of reported claims and claims amount is derived. The posterior distribution of parameters is estimated via the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling approach. The Bayesian estimator, the process variance, the estimation variance, and the predictive distribution of unpaid claims are also studied. The proposed model and the HMC inference engine are applied to to an empirical claims dataset of the WorkSafe Victoria to estimate the unpaid claims of the doctor benefit. The Bayesian modeling procedure is further refined by including a preliminary generalized linear model analysis. The results are compared with those in a PwC report. An alternative model is compared with the proposed model based on various information criteria.     

“三型”体系建设对高校学生党支部组织力提升的实践研究

在学生党支部建设的过程中,通过建立"学习型"体系框架、推进"服务型"一体化建设、完善"创新型"机制等措施,逐步形成"三型"协作、优势互补的新格局。高校学生党支部以"三型"体系建设为着力点,引领学生党员在"学习"中筑牢思想根基,在"服务"中巩固群众基础,在"创新"中提升能力水平,全面有效提升高校学生党支部的组织力。     

企业上市、专利突击与经营绩效——基于创业板上市公司的经验证据

以2009-2018年中国创业板公司为样本,考察公司上市前的专利突击现象,检验专利突击行为对专利质量和经营业绩的影响.研究发现:第一,创业板上市公司IPO前存在明显的专利突击现象,具体表现为专利申请数量在上市前激增,在上市后增长停滞;第二,创业板公司专利突击行为降低了专利质量和上市后的长期经营业绩;第三,相较于发明专利,非发明专利的上市前突击现象更明显;第四,2014年证监会关于创业板上市公司在招股说明书中对专利信息披露的有关规定改变了公司专利申请策略,申请时间前移,上市前已申请但未授权的专利占比降低.最后,企业突击申请专利会使投资者高估公司价值,从而损害投资者利益.研究结论有利于理解我国"专利泡沫"现象的制度诱因,对完善创业板制度和实现注册制转型具有借鉴意义.     

Personal Income Tax Reform in China in 2018 and Its Impact on Income Distribution

In the context of personal income tax (PIT) reform in China in 2018, this paper examines some of the major issues of concern regarding the reform and income distribution. Using the China Personal Income Tax Micro‐simulation model, the paper compares the differences between the 2011 and 2018 PIT systems, and finds that residents relying on different income sources may face a large degree of real tax rate change. Once the tax system is altered to PIT 2018, the coverage of PIT for wage earners will decrease from 46.9 to 23.4 percent, the income redistributive effect will drop from 1.95 to 1.22 percent and the PIT's role in fiscal revenue will also be negatively affected. Nevertheless, if individual income continues to grow, the share of PIT in fiscal revenue is expected to return to the 2018 level in 2022, but its income redistribution function is difficult to recover in the short term. The paper finds that the effect of PIT on income distribution depends on the tax structure. Gradual transition to an “entirely comprehensive” tax system when conditions are appropriate will achieve better income redistribution results at a lower average tax rate.     

Unemployment insurance benefits and income smoothing

Labor unemployment insurance reduces unemployment concerns. We argue that these benefits moderate incentives to smooth earnings to reduce employees’ concerns about unemployment risk. Using exogenous variations in unemployment insurance benefits, we find evidence consistent with this argument. We also find that the link between unemployment insurance benefits and income smoothing is stronger when there is higher unemployment risk and when the firm is likely to employ more low-wage workers, who find unemployment insurance benefits especially useful. Our paper contributes to the literature by showing that public policy decisions such as unemployment insurance have significant, albeit probably unintended, externalities on corporate financial reporting.     

信贷管制、隐性契约与贷款利率变相市场化——现象与解释

本文将视角聚焦于利率市场化改革之前,重点研究金融抑制对银企信贷契约的异化。研究发现,在金融抑制背景下银企之间存在以留存贷款为表现的隐性契约,用以帮助银行在满足管制要求的同时追求利润最大化。本文对这一现象进行了理论分析与实证检验,发现隐性契约的发生与否会随着货币政策、企业特征等因素的改变而有所差异,这在一定程度上起到了利率变相市场化的作用。进一步研究则发现,这一隐性契约对企业价值产生了负向影响。     

从空间的权益解析当下开放式住区的实践途径

"开放式住区"意味着住区街道、公共空间等面向城市开放,与封闭式住区相比,其内部公共产品的空间属性产生了变化,这也引起居民在物权方面的担忧。从空间权益的角度解读开放式住区的实践途径具有现实意义。"大院"和"小区"是最典型的中国居住区模式,分析认为,它们是政府对城市基层单位的空间发展权让渡,形成了空间权益的内化现象。开放式住区则意味着地方政府对基层空间主导权的回收。在实践途径上,比较了财产权模式与中国模式的区别,提出加强政府对城市空间发展权的主张;并分别针对"新建住区"和"改造住区"讨论了实践中的主要问题和可行方法。     

工商管理类专业课程教学质量监控体系研究

课程教学质量是高等学校的生命线，学分制模式下，工商管理类专业课程因其本身固有的特性，课程教学质量的提升在较大程度上依托于一个完善的质量监控体系的有效运作，为此高校要采取措施，在内部构建起课程教学质量的监控体系来确保人才培养质量，从而提高办学水平。