Education of disadvantaged children

There are at least two basic strategies for finding answers to the questions posed: what compensatory programs are “successful”, for which groups of children, and at what cost? The first strategy involves the design and execution of a series of controlled experiments in education; the second involves statistical analyses of existing compensatory education programs. In line with the first strategy, next year, the Follow Through program will fund a series of educational demonstration programs based on a “menu” of different curricula for children in the early elementary grades. Participating school districts will opt for one or another of the approaches offered, and will, in the course of the year, receive the advice and counsel of consultants in implementing the approach selected. A second—and complementary—basic strategy for finding out what works in compensatory education capitalizes on the wealth of information waiting to be collected on the operation of existing programs.

Since the spring of 1967, staff members of the Office of the Secretary of DHEW, the Office of Education, and a contractor—TEMPO, a division of General Electric Company—have been engaged in a pilot cost-effectiveness analysis of compensatory education programs. For the 11 districts studied, two distinct developments appear to have occurred in pupil performance: first, there appears to have been a slight decline in average pupil achievement in the sample schools. At the same time, there appears to have been a slight improvement in the achievement of pupils who are at the lowest achievement levels in their respective grades. The achievement data from the districts in the study indicate considerable variation in achievement results. The conduct and content of compensatory programs vary greatly. Preliminary analysis suggests that the amount of achievement increase is positively related to the level of expenditures for compensatory education programs.

To make real progress in assessing the effectiveness of alternative education programs and to overcome the difficulties discussed throughout this paper, we see the need to pursue two major courses of action. The first concerns the funding of controlled experiments introducing major variations into school programs, using comparable measures of program costs, inputs and effectiveness over time. The second is a frontal assault on evaluation in the form of a cooperative effort with a small number of interested States and local school districts to carry out a longitudinal study of compensatory programs.     

A budget model of a university

Yale University operates a number of budget systems for purposes of planning and control. These include a capital budget, a cash budget, an operating budget, and an operating growth budget. The operating growth budget might be the one of most potential interest to people concerned with Operations Analysis in Education.

The operating growth budget is a model of what the University fiscal flows and structure might look like under varying conditions over an extended period, e.g., 20 years. It is composed of a set of ideas, a set of equations, and a computer program.

It is important to us to point out that this work is in a development stage. We have run many simulations, adjusted the program, refined the parameter estimates, and modified the questions we have been asking. Part of our efforts have followed a concern that we have captured the appropriate structure, part that we are investigating our own spectrum of decisions, and part that we can reflect the varying “external” conditions outside of the University's immediate influence and control.

Our work with the operating growth budget has already started to influence some of the decisions of the University including the yearly operating budget, the capital funds programs, and the endowment investment portfolio.     

The dynamod model of student and teacher population growth

DYNAMOD II is a computerized Markov-type model which calculates data for 140 population groups over selected intervals of time. These population groups are crossclassified as to sex, race (2 categories), age (6 categories), educational status (3 levels of students and teachers respectively, as well as elementary and secondary school dropouts), and an “other” category. The model employs over 832 transition probabilities to cycle the population groups. Independent birth projections are added to the appropriate sex-race categories after each interaction.

The model is programmed for the RCA 3301 and GE time-sharing computer systems. On the GE system, a data file arrangement permits on-line access to any of the inputs or probabilities. In addition, user options regarding the desired amount of detailed output are available.

DYNAMOD II can provide the educational community with estimates of the impact on the educational population of proposed policy changes or of sudden shifts in the structure of the educational system. For example, if policymakers wish to know what effect will be produced by a policy designed to decrease the elementary-school teacher turnover by one percent, DYNAMOD II can supply not only information on the new levels of teacher projections, but also can provide estimates of the rate at which these adjustments will take place. Not only are these estimates possible for the various tiers of student and teacher structures in the model, but changes outside the educational system, such as in birth and death rates can be handled as well. It follows that the impact of policy changes on policy tools, such as the student-teacher ratio, can also be estimated with the use of DYNAMOD II.     

Demand for education, and its estimation

Since education produces major externalities and has important merit want characteristics, the estimation of a demand schedule is extremely difficult. Demand estimation for higher education is made somewhat easier because of the great importance of the associated costs and the relevant private substitutes, i.e. private colleges and universities. Therefore higher education is a good candidate for the application of the individual (economic) preference approach, which is based on the assumption that individuals are aware of their need for education about as they are aware of their needs for products provided by the open market.

The estimation of demand for primary and secondary education can rely only to a minor extent on the individual (economic) preference approach. The voter's behavior approach analysis is likely to be more directly applicable. Study of the behavior of voters and the behavior of legislators and members of school boards can shed light on the demand for education. Analytic insight can be gained also by the “voting with one's feet”, and the “calculus of consent” methods.

Finally, benefit-cost analysis can be applied in situations where education gives an extremely weak demand signal. In education we often are less interested in overall benefit-cost estimates than in the benefit-cost positions in which different important interest groups find themselves with regard to education. Such analysis requires the identification of significant interest groups, bargaining strategies, and bargaining patterns, as well as of ways in which education decision makers respond to group pressures.     

A new pattern of risk management: The Hyogo Framework for Action and Italian practise

On January 2005, the World Conference on Disaster Reduction adopted the “Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2025: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters” [UN-ISDR (United Nations, International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), Disaster Risk and Sustainable Development: understanding the links between development, environment and natural hazards leading to disasters, World Summit on Sustainable Development, August–September 2002, Johannesburg, 2002]. This “white paper” seeks to promote “an effective integration of disaster risk considerations into sustainable development policies, planning and programming at all levels” [UN-ISDR (United Nations, International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), Disaster Risk and Sustainable Development: understanding the links between development, environment and natural hazards leading to disasters, World Summit on Sustainable Development, August–September 2002, Johannesburg, 2002. p. 1] outlining a strategic and systematic approach to reduce vulnerabilities and risks to hazards.

The current paper discusses each aspect of the Hyogo approach in relation to the Italian experience. Italy represents an interesting case because of its multiple hazard environment, and the fact that it has developed an integrated approach to risk reduction planning. Strengths and weaknesses of the “Italian way” of dealing with risk are identified, and compared with the theoretical processes suggested by the framework. Implementation of selected key actions in Italy has helped identify a series of obstacles to progress, further defining the gap that still exists between theoretical framework and actual practise.

The various activities constituting “risk management” (viz., assessment, prevention, mitigation, monitoring, early warning, preparedness) are here considered in a comprehensive framework wherein each phase is connected to the others. The paper focuses on natural hazards, which are more frequent in Italy (landslides, floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, natural soil erosion). The main results include:

• A new process for dealing with risk, using the framework for guidance, is identified. We track the reasons for Italy gradually adopting this process in dealing with her vulnerabilities to natural hazards.

• Those factors that appear to interfere with an integrated approach to risk management are identified as a function of selected experiences.

• Guidelines for analysing vulnerabilities to disaster in a multi-hazard, integrated context are proposed.

Can we model the educational process?

Operational analysis has not yet made a contribution to the improvement of the educational process. There are several reasons for this. First, relative to the magnitude of the job of teaching our youth, financial support for educational research and analysis has been much smaller than for other problem areas, e.g., health.

The second difficulty is in the relationship between operational analysis and theory. The more complete the theory, the better the system designs resulting from analysis. For education there is no theory. Worse, there are few efforts to develop such theory. It must be recognized, however, that the phenomenon called learning is very complex.

The lack of theory means that the system design proceeds with more uncertainty. Large “safety factors” must be built in. This means that educational systems have to be expensive.

Large, continuing financial support is required; first, to build up present school systems, so that they perform well under existing, changing circumstances; and, second, to support research that will provide theories and models which in turn will lead to more effective learning systems.     

The generation of doctorates and their feedback into higher education

The dynamic effects of alternative manpower policies and programs can be “pretested” in a computer based simulation. It is generally recognized that the production of Doctorates depends to a large degree on the Doctorate-holding faculty. Because the doctorate holders are in great demand by the other sectors of the economy, a circular or a “feedback” situation exists. The problem is further complicated by the availability of developed student talent and by various socioeconomic conditions existing at different periods of time within two or three decades prior to the time a study is made.

This paper attempts to develop a conceptual and a mathematical model to study the production of Doctorates, Masters' and Baccalaureate degrees and their feedback into higher education. The model consisting of over 200 non-linear difference equations is programmed for computer simulation and validation against historical data. Currently simulation is used to describe what has happened in the past. Once this phase is accomplished, the model can be used to prescribe what will happen in the future with a fair level of confidence.     

Mathematical analysis applied to school attendance areas

The objective of this paper is to develop a generalized mathematical model of pupil assignment within school districts. This model can then be used to examine various policies of student integration. Proposed bussing schemes, school location policies, educational parks, attendance boundaries, etc., can be tested for cost, travel time or other measures of efficiency. Extension to other areas of educational planning is feasible.

Mathematical programming techniques are used to assign resources (say school children) to facilities (say schools) subject to restrictions on facilities (say capacity limits) and resources (say a maximum travel time or a desirable range of school “mixtures”) so that a measure of performance, the “objective function” (say total cost or total time of travel) is optimized. The model is intended to allow examination of a wide range of objective functions and system constraints.     

Professional education in urban planning: A framework for growth

Expanded interest in socio-economic problems have created new opportunities for the urban planning profession. Because of their emphasis on physical and land-use aspects of the city, traditional educational programs in urban planning have been unable to deal adequately with these new opportunities. Changes in program orientation and emphasis to meet these new challenges have started to take place in some urban planning departments. It remains to be seen how effective some of these changes will be over the long run.

This paper considers some current aspects of urban planning education. The role of professional education in our society is examined along with the role of science in planning. Based on this analysis, a framework is proposed for the future growth of professional education in urban planning. Because of its strong orientation towards a “science of planning”, this proposal appears to be somewhat different than other changes currently being considered in some urban planning programs.     

Social indicators and social accounts

This paper defines “social indicators” as statistics which have two denning characteristics. They are, first, measures of direct normative interest; that is, what the economist would call measures of “welfare” and “illfare”. Most existing government statistics are not of this type, because a large proportion of existing statistics are measures of government or other institutional activity, produced as a by-product of accounting or administrative routine. The second defining characteristic of a social indicator is that it should fit into a systematic scheme of classification or aggregation which would make possible a balanced assessment of socio-economic progress or retrogression in some broad area, as well as disaggregated and detailed study of particular problems.

The work in government on social indicators was designed in part to meet the needs of Toward a Social Report, a preliminary study of the condition of American society issued by the U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (Superintendent of Documents, Wash. D.C. 20402; 1969). Social indicators can also fit, with other statistics, into a set of “policy accounts” or scheme of social accounting, which would relate social expenditures to the social indicator they were designed to affect. This would encourage broadened cost-benefit analysis and rational public decision-making.     

A voucher plan for financing health care delivery

There seems to be a growing consensus in this country that everyone should have guaranteed access to at least a minimum level of preventive and curative medical care. The real controversy is over the method by which such care would be assured.

I have proposed elsewhere that each individual be given a voucher; ‘good’ for either full premium payment for membership in a comprehensive prepaid health plan in a specified period, or for a predetermined amount toward one's health insurance premium if it is desired to maintain consumption of care in a fee-for-service (ffs) mode.

The purpose of the present paper will be to provide a preliminary examination of some of the operational characteristics of such a voucher which may be implemented on an ‘area’ basis, such an area containing some number of somehow identifiable ‘regions’. In each of the regions a governing board would make management decisions taking into account its peculiarities and needs. The regional board would then be responsible to some area Health Council. This, of course, parallels the kinds of decision-making bodies specified both in national proposals such as Senator Kennedy's, and statewide plans such as California Senate Bill 770 proposed by Senator Moscone (D., San Francisco).

An analytical model of the decision process of such regional boards and Health Councils is developed and the optimal selection of voucher redemption levels and capital subsidy programs is characterized.     

A model for manpower, employment, training and education

The increasing refinement and variety of economic projections can give the educational planner an extremely useful tool, providing he can find a way to convert sectoral projections of employment into educational requirements. In this study occupational data from the Census of 1960 were converted directly into their vocational educational equivalents so that cross-classifications by (SIC) sector permitted the derivation of sectoral employment/education coefficients. These coefficients, multiplied by projected employment in each sector, give projected employment in terms of the vocational preparation which is implied.

Using this approach, vocational preparation requirements were projected to 1975 for the fifty states and 224 metropolitan areas. The results thus generated show the variety which can be anticipated among the various regions in the United States, and can provide guidance to local and state educational groups in setting up programs at state and local levels.

A similar approach which used various national projections led to two conclusions. The level of sectoral detail can have quite important impacts on the “mix” of training requirements which results, suggesting that projections of this type must be based on quite detailed sectoral employment breakdowns. Second, shifts in patterns of growth can have marked impacts on some types of vocational training requirements while needs for other types remain relatively unaffected.     

The psychological and social variables determining education

The object of the paper is to logically integrate in a single frame of reference the studies of the psychological and sociological determinants of achievement and acculturation of the students.

The education or socialization process is defined as the process of social interaction that has as its object the teaching-learning of culture.

The two main instruments used for the analysis of education are a model of social interaction, and, since the characteristics of any social interaction depend upon the way in which the actors in it peform their roles, a model of the performance of any activity.

The model of social interaction, applied to classroom interactions, gives the basis determining the main elements of the roles of teachers and students. The influence that the performance of these roles has on the indoctrination and achievement of the students is studied with the model of the performance of any activity. Finally it is assumed that the levels of achievement and indoctrination attained by the students determines whether or not they remain in the educational system.     

Efficient allocation of subsidies to college students

This paper describes how the standard economic constrained maximization model can be applied to improve the efficiency of allocation of subsidies to college students. After a general discussion the model is applied to the allocation of a subsidy to freshman students at the University of California according to equity objectives. This model suggests that student subsidy programs should be based on explicit consideration of student willingness to pay for college in relation to carefully specified enrollment objectives. The administration of such a program would require changes in the currently used financial “need” approach to student subsidy programs. The case is made that the necessary changes are feasible.     

Spatial strategies of the “haredi” population in Jerusalem

The purpose of this article is to discuss the strategic behavior—spatial and social—of the “Haredi” (ultra-orthodox) Jewish population. This behavior is associated, in essence, with self-segregation and social isolation accompanied by spatial expansion.

This study deals with these processes in one of the largest concentrations of the ultra-orthodox Jewish community—the northern neighborhoods of Jerusalem. The Jewish ultra-orthodox community is characterized by its special interpretation of Jewish law (halacha) and by its high degree of cohesiveness. It tends to segregate itself from the Israeli population for two main motives. The positive one is the desire to create and maintain “cultural dominance” in a specific area in which the community lives and functions. This includes considerations of scale economies and concentration economies in the provision of the special goods and services which it consumes. The second motive, a negative one, is the desire to avoid some kinds of contacts and interactions with the various groups which do not observe Jewish law according to the orthodox conception. This is done in order to prevent the transfer of secular cultural values of western society into their domain.

The high communal cohesiveness, coupled with high population growth and a strong desire for self-territorial segregation, results in increased pressure on the urban residential space. The fear of social relationship—which may serve as agents for transferring social or cultural values—results in a high degree of intolerance toward the non-religious Israeli population. The contact lines between the two populations have become, therefore, confrontation areas which are characterized by territorial conflicts.

Study of the directions of the territorial expansion suggests what the spatial strategy of the ultraorthodox community is: to gain control of a whole, well-defined urban space in order to maintain cultural dominance in it, while assuring potential directions for expansion in the future. The relationships with the outside, non-religious population is built on a modus operandi principle: i.e. minimal and culturally neutral interactions.

This strategy is carried out through penetration and expansion tactics in a well-known process. These processes present important challenges for planning areas in which ultra-orthodox communities reside.     

Budget decision making in large public school systems

This paper reviews and discusses results of a study of the budget process in fourteen large city school districts. Topics covered include incremental decision making, the use of “ratios” and “norms” in school budgeting, public participation in budgeting, relevant structural arrangements of local government, and the influence of boards of education on the allocation of resources. Finally, implications for the improvement of school management practices in large school districts are discussed.     

On the socially optimal size of a life-saving facility

The paper examines the simultaneous problem of finding an optimal size of an intensive care unit and an optimal amount of social investment in preventive medicine. The “demand” for ICU services is assumed stochastic. The approach used is to minimize social costs involved in operating the facility and social loss stemming from deaths of untreated patients.

After deriving the optimality conditions the results are applied to recent British data     

A linear model for the allocation of instructional resources

An allocation model is proposed for instructional systems which have instructional programs that can be structured in terms of behavioral objectives, instructional activities and required achievement levels. It is assumed that the relevant characteristics of the students and teachers are known and that the instructional resources needed for an activity can be estimated. Carroll's “model for school learning” is used to justify a linear model. Carroll's model hypothesizes that a learner will achieve an objective to the extent that he spends the time he needs. As a first approximation, the degree of learning is the ratio of the time actually spent on learning to the time required. The model can be used for econometric studies of instructional systems and to compare resource allocation strategies.     

Impact of e-procurement: Experiences from implementation in the UK public sector

The advent of the Internet as a business systems platform has been a catalyst for major changes in the operation and status of organizational procurement. Early e-procurement literature forecast significant improvements in procurement costs, an improving status of the purchasing function, and changes to the structure of supply markets. Our study seeks to evaluate the validity of these forecasts through the development of a structural model of the ‘e-procurement effect’. This model is intended to define the dynamics of the e-procurement process in an organization and provide a foundation for a research stream into the transformational effect of e-procurement deployment.

The article presents the evaluation of e-procurement implementation and operation from an 18-month study of e-procurement deployment across nine UK public sector organizations. The article explores five key themes in e-procurement, namely system specification, implementation management, changes to organizational characteristics, changes in total acquisition costs, and changes to governance structures.

Our analysis suggests that the proposed structural model of the e-procurement effect is broadly applicable and that many of the previous claimed benefits in the literature can be realized. We also contend that an important variable for the success of e-procurement adoption is to address the internal service quality attributes of e-procurement processes—a topic which offers significant scope for future research.