FINANCIAL RESTRUCTURING: IMPACT ON HOUSING

The purpose of this paper is to describe the primary factors that helped encourage the growth of savings and loan business and its development as the primary mortgage originating and investing intermediary. This will be followed by a discussion of how and why changes have been made to alter the sheltered environment of the business. Finally, the paper will focus on several options for the future structure of the savings and loan business and the implications each has on our mortgage delivery system and housing
The paper concludes that the country in general and its housing needs, in particular, would be best served by freeing up the asset and liability powers of thrifts. In order to meet the mortgage finance needs of the country, it is recommended that increased emphasis be put on making mortgages investment grade assets that will be able to compete with other investments for funds in the capital market generally. To do this, the government must refrain from price fixing (i.e., setting specific prepayment penalties, savings rates, etc.); establishing terms and conditions on mortgages (i.e., regulating mortgage forms); changing contractual provisions on mortgages (i.e., due-on-sale prohibitions), and avoiding noncompetitive behavior by government credit programs.     

个人住房贷款行为与房贷调控的有效性分析

本文利用成都市房地产交易的微观数据(2004—2006),实证检验了我国房地产信贷政策的变化对微观个体住房贷款决策行为的影响效果。我们发现,地方购房者的贷款决策对中央利率调控有明显反应。实证结果显示:当长期贷款利率升幅较短期贷款利率升幅高0.1百分点时,贷款者选择短期贷款的概率增加8.4个百分点;而且利用商业住房贷款利率和公积金贷款利率变动差异的"自然实验",我们有效控制了可能由宏观政策内生性产生的计量问题,从微观角度为长、短期利率政策的有效性提供了更可靠的实证检验。此外,我们还发现首付比例政策并没有得到地方银行的严格实施。因此,文章建议政府进一步重视利率政策对房地产市场的调整,而包括首付比例等相关政策的实施需加强对地方执行部门监管的力度。     

Market structure and credit procyclicality: Lessons from loan markets in the European Union banking sectors

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the market structure has an impact on procyclicality in the European Union bank loan markets. The cyclical responses of three types of bank loans (residential mortgage loans, consumer loans, and corporate loans) are quantified separately using the interacted panel vector autoregression model at the country level and the single-equation panel regression model at the bank level. Using a sample of 26 European Union countries, we find that the procyclical responses of residential mortgage loans and consumer loans are significantly stronger and prolonged when the banking sector is more concentrated or dominated by foreign banks. However, we find that there are nonlinear relationships between the market structure and credit procyclicality based on bank-level data. We also find some heterogeneities between advanced and transitioning European Union banking sectors. Finally, our findings confirm the leading role of residential mortgages in intensifying credit fluctuations.     

Gender in banking and mortgage behavior

Compared to men, women, even financial professionals, exhibit higher risk aversion. We exploit random assignment of clients to banking advisors (‘private bankers’) in a large Czech bank to study the effects of advisor gender on the probability of mortgage issuance and on the probability that a newly issued mortgage is insured, which we interpret as corresponding to risk averse mortgage behaviour. Male advisors do not substantially affect the chances that their clients will take a new mortgage. However, the mortgages that they issue are dramatically less likely to be insured, particularly so for female clients who never had an insured loan with the bank.     

Can an Islamic model of housing finance cooperative elevate the economic status of the underprivileged?

A formal home loan is onerous to subprime borrowers in efficient markets. This can deter homeownership for financially strapped individuals, leading to a market failure. This paper proposes a special form of cooperative mortgage financing (practiced in Oman) to overcome this market failure. We integrate the literature of mortgage design with that of informal savings schemes (i.e., ROSCAs/ASCRAs) to illustrate that this mode of financing dissipates credit risk better than the formal mode of financing. It is also resilient to volatility of interest rates and allows prepayments without any additional charges. Finally, we verify the assertions of Besley et al. (1994) and Hart and Moore (1998) that cooperative mortgages are pareto-superior to formal mortgages in special cases.     

ACCOUNTING FOR CHANGES IN THE HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE*

This article accounts for the boom in homeownership from 1994 to 2005 by examining the roles of demographic changes and mortgage innovations. To measure the impact of these factors, we construct a quantitative general equilibrium overlapping generation model with housing. In the long‐run, mortgage innovation accounts for between 56 and 70% of the increase whereas demographics account for a much smaller portion. We test this result by considering changes in mortgages after 1940. We find that the introduction of the conventional fixed rate mortgage accounts for at least 50% of the observed increase in homeownership during that period.     

Measuring tax incidence: an application to mortgage provision in the UK

This paper derives measures of the average and marginal incidence of a tax or subsidy in imperfect competition, in the context of the UK housing market. We argue that one form of mortgage, common in the UK but not elsewhere (the endowment mortgage), exists primarily because of the structure of taxation in the UK. We estimate the determinants of the choice of the type of mortgage, and the size of mortgage conditional on the choice, using data from the Building Societies Association on 43 000 individual mortgages taken out between 1985 and 1989. The estimated parameters are an input to the incidence measures. Results suggest that between 70 and 80% of the additional subsidy to endowment mortgages is captured by lenders, rather than borrowers.     

农民住房财产权抵押能否激发农村金融市场*——基于银行贷款数据的实证分析

扩展抵押品范围是缓解农村金融困境的重要途径。在这一思路下，农民住房财产权抵押被寄予厚望，成为近年来农村政策改革的重要方向。本文使用2010—2016年1 024家农信社和农商行的数据，利用2015年12月国务院在天津市蓟州区等59个试点县（市、区）开展为期两年的农民住房财产权抵押贷款试点这一“准自然实验”，对农民住房财产权抵押对涉农贷款供给的影响进行了检验。本文认为，现阶段农民住房面临着价值评估难、抵押物处置难的问题，抵押效果不佳。实证结果显示，农民住房财产权抵押没有显著增加涉农贷款供给，对农村金融的供给作用有限。本文在考虑了农民住房财产权抵押对其他担保方式的替代作用、农地经营权抵押和“三块地”改革的影响之后，上述结果依然稳健。本文的政策启示是，政府应着力做好农房抵押贷款改革的配套措施，推动宅基地制度改革，探索扩大农民住房财产权的受让范围，充分挖掘住房财产权的价值潜力，缓解抵押物处置难问题。     

农民住房财产权抵押能否激发农村金融市场*——基于银行贷款数据的实证分析

扩展抵押品范围是缓解农村金融困境的重要途径。在这一思路下，农民住房财产权抵押被寄予厚望，成为近年来农村政策改革的重要方向。本文使用2010—2016年1 024家农信社和农商行的数据，利用2015年12月国务院在天津市蓟州区等59个试点县（市、区）开展为期两年的农民住房财产权抵押贷款试点这一“准自然实验”，对农民住房财产权抵押对涉农贷款供给的影响进行了检验。本文认为，现阶段农民住房面临着价值评估难、抵押物处置难的问题，抵押效果不佳。实证结果显示，农民住房财产权抵押没有显著增加涉农贷款供给，对农村金融的供给作用有限。本文在考虑了农民住房财产权抵押对其他担保方式的替代作用、农地经营权抵押和“三块地”改革的影响之后，上述结果依然稳健。本文的政策启示是，政府应着力做好农房抵押贷款改革的配套措施，推动宅基地制度改革，探索扩大农民住房财产权的受让范围，充分挖掘住房财产权的价值潜力，缓解抵押物处置难问题。     

Non-Price Barriers to Home Ownership*

The impact of regulation of the nominal rate of interest for mortgages in the Australian market for housing finance is examined under inflationary conditions. It is argued that the neglected distributional consequences of the induced tightening of non-price rationing of funds militate against the availability of housing finance to low income groups and first home buyers. Policy to increase availability should take account of the institutional features of the mortgage contract.     

Mortgage product diversity: responding to consumer demand or protecting lender profit? An asymmetric panel analysis

This article explores determinants of mortgage product diversity for owner-occupied and investment loans in the Australian housing mortgage market. From 2001 to 2012, 65 lenders introduced 1220 mortgage products in Australia. We examine whether the product proliferation was a result of consumer demand or a response to pressure to lower lending rates. We find that consumer demand for mortgages does not have a significant relationship with the number of mortgage products, but that decreases in the policy interest rate are highly significant as an explanatory variable for product proliferation. Such behaviour is consistent with information obfuscation, reducing the ease with which consumers can compare lending rates. Further, the relationship between mortgage products offered and the policy interest rate is asymmetric: decreases in the cash rate are associated with increased mortgage products offered, but increases in the cash rate have a more muted effect on decreasing the number of products.     

浅谈商业银行房地产抵押贷款风险防范

商业银行房地产抵押贷款风险主要有：以设定抵押后建的设施扩大贷款、以划拨土地抵押贷款、以预售商品房和在建工程抵押贷款和以亏损企业财产贷款。防范此类贷款风险的措施主要有：明确抵押物的法定范围、规范土地使用权抵押操作等。     

The Positive Externalities of Chapter 13 “Cramdowns” Could Prevent the Next Foreclosure Crisis

Revision of Bankruptcy Code 11 U.S.C. § 1322(b)(2) would permit “cramdowns” wherein bankruptcy judges would administer the modification of residential mortgages only when mortgage-lending abuses were most rampant (a real estate bubble). Foreclosure spill-over effects systemically worsened the housing crisis and were not evenly diffused throughout the broader housing market. Throughout 2003–2006, an oversupply of underpriced mortgage finance emanating from lax underwriting standards bid up residential prices. Relaxation of underwriting protocols came about from the mortgage market’s institutional swing from regulated agency securitization (predominantly government-sponsored enterprises “GSEs”) to unregulated securitization (shadow banking). This resulted in an untenable residential-price bubble as synthetically inexpensive credit from investors’ mispricing amplified mortgage demand, while greater mortgage quantity nudged up housing prices. The result was a self-referential cycle of waning residential prices supporting and perpetuating nigh incessant foreclosures: the bubble had burst. Cramdowns would incentivize lenders to be less inclined to loosen underwriting standards, or when done, to include this factor in the risk premium of the cost of credit. Enhancing Chapter 13 with the muscle to alter residential mortgages would ameliorate an institutionally structural issue endemic to the past (and upcoming?) foreclosure crisis.     

中国个人住房按揭贷款的信用风险及成因剖析

随着中国房地产市场的不断扩张和个人住房按揭贷款业务的快速发展,其信用风险也越来越受到中国金融界的重视。要实施有效的防范措施和管理策略,就必须先认真剖析风险的形成原因。中国个人住房按揭贷款信用风险的成因主要在于：开发商信用缺失造成;借款人问题导致;商业银行自身原因引发。     

Mortgage‐Backed Securities (MBS): Is It a Curse or a Blessing for the Australian Home Loan Market? A Natural Experiment

The Australian home loan market has seen a significant and persistent boom over more than two decades. The extant literature exploring the underlying factors explaining this boom has predominantly looked at the demand side rather than the supply side. In this paper, we look at a major supply‐side issue, the introduction of mortgage‐backed securities and its likely impact on the home loan market. In doing so, we have developed a mathematical model that theorises this likely relationship. Our mathematical model predicts possible existence of an unstable equilibrium in the home loan market in the presence of mortgage‐backed securities. We have subsequently backed up our theoretical exercise with sound empirical evidence acquired and analysed as a natural experiment in the Australian scenario using quarterly market data on home loans and mortgage‐backed securities data for a 36‐year period from 1976 to 2012. Using unknown structural break tests, we have identified significant breaks around late 1992 to mid‐1995, clearly indicating that there were significant changes in the housing market due to the introduction of mortgage‐backed securities in early 1993. We have also performed a stability test confirming that under certain conditions this market can become unstable.     

The Equity of Alternative Policies for the Australian Homeowner*

The income-tax treatment of homeowners and renters is an important instrument of national housing policy. Major changes in the treatment of homeowners occurred in 1975 and 1976; the second change focused especially on the problems of first-buyers and was coincident with an expanded home-savings grant scheme. As a further reform several writers have advocated the taxation of the rent imputed to homeowners. This paper develops a user cost of capital approach to estimate the distribution of housing costs along the income scale and between policy alternatives. The model indicates the vital importance of accounting for inflation whenever physical housing costs are inflating but mortgage costs are fixed in nominal terms. Although inflation is increasing housing costs at all income levels, high-income homeowners appear to be suffering the greatest cost increases as the result of inflation. Furthermore, unless mortgages are indexed, the customary imputed-rent formula is regressive.     

THE PECULIAR ECONOMICS OF HOUSING BUBBLES

Home values increase rapidly during housing bubbles generating large capital gains. High loan‐to‐value (LTV) mortgages secured by expected future home values are one way to take advantage of these capital gains. In this article, we use a simple partial equilibrium consumer theory model to explore the implications of high LTV borrowing. We find that sufficiently large expected house price growth leads to an upward‐sloping budget line when households can obtain high LTV mortgages. In this environment, the demand for housing fits neither the conventional theories of consumer goods nor that of investment goods. In fact, increases in the expected future price of housing may reduce current housing demand, whereas decreases in the effective (current) price may lead to households buying smaller homes. Moreover, high LTV loans reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy, but raise the volatility of aggregate demand. Tighter borrowing standards may help lower demand volatility at the expense of shrinking the economy. (JEL E21, R21, E52)     

Heterogeneous Mortgage Markets: Implications for Business Cycles and Welfare in the EMU

This paper evaluates business cycle effects of asymmetric cross‐country mortgage market developments in a monetary union. By employing a two‐country New Keynesian DSGE model with collateral constraints tied to housing values, we show that a change in institutional characteristics of mortgage markets, such as the loan‐to‐value (LTV) ratio, is an important driver of asymmetric developments in housing markets and economic activity. Our analysis suggests that the home country where credit standards are lax booms, while the rest of European Monetary Union faces a negative output gap. Overall welfare is lower if LTV ratios are higher.     

House price,mortgage premium,and business fluctuations

This paper investigates the transmission mechanism of mortgage premium to characterize the relationship between the housing market and business cycle for the U.S. We find that mortgage premium is crucial for the amplification and propagation of the model to match the main properties of U.S. housing market and business cycles. The counterfactual analysis suggests that had the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate in 2003Q1, it would have curbed the housing market boom before the crisis, yet failed to alleviate the precipitous decline in housing market activity after the crisis. Moreover, the pre-emptive monetary policy aimed to contain the housing market boom can effectively lower volatilities of major economic aggregates; however, it also exerts a significantly negative effect on the levels of these economic aggregates. Thus, using monetary policy to stabilize asset price inflation involves a trade-off between the volatility and the level of economic activity.     

次贷危机下对我国商业银行房贷业务的思考

2007年美国次贷危机的爆发使美国金融界受到了一次极大的震荡,甚至可以说是行业“洗牌”,许多银行和投资银行都受到影响。我国商业银行在房贷业务上也有同美国住宅抵押贷款业务同样的风险,如信用风险突出、放贷机构低估住房抵押贷款风险等。因此,我们应吸取此次危机的教训,金融机构应增强审慎经营管理的意识,加强风险管理,加快住房抵押贷款证券化进程。