区域经济发展过程中的人口迁移研究—以广东省珠江三角洲地区为例

本文以经济发展迅速的广东省珠江三角洲地区为例，应用托达罗人口迁移经济模式分析其人口迁移机制，对广东省人口迁移省际省内分布特征进行了分析，并提出了相应的调控措施。     

中国城市群人口流动与 区域经济发展平衡性研究 ——基于全国第六次人口普查长表数据的分析

本文利用2010年全国第六次人口普查长表数据系统分析了我国24个城市群的人口流动模式,并运用基尼算法测算人口流动前后城市群人口与经济发展平衡性演化。研究结果表明：1我国城市群之间及内部人口流动规模庞大,人口流入和流出均呈集中趋势,人口流入集中特征尤为明显。2城市群流动人口分布呈现“极化”和“属地化”特征,东部城市群和所在经济区内城市群是主要人口流入区域,东部城市群大规模的人口流入与流出并存,且绝大部分流入人口来自城市群覆盖省份以外。3珠三角城市群仍为我国最重要的人口强势流入中心,江淮城市群和环鄱阳湖城市群则构成我国的人口强势流出中心。4我国城市群人口分布与经济发展平衡状况总体较为合理,各城市群之间平衡性差异显著但并未出现明显的区域分化,人口流动显著改善了城市群内部的人口分布与经济发展平衡性。     

中国东南半壁南北方地区人口空间分异格局及其影响因素

中国南北方地区发展不平衡问题凸显,人口南北空间分异现象引起了广泛关注。文章以1982—2020年5期人口普查数据为基础,采用泰尔指数、地理探测器等方法,探究中国东南半壁南北方地区人口空间分异格局及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)研究期内"南密北疏"的人口分布格局基本稳定,南方地区一直保持着人口规模和密度优势。(2)研究区人口分布的总体差异不断拉大,南北方地区内部差异的贡献占主导地位,其中南方地区内部差异比北方地区小,但上升幅度较大。(3)研究区人口具有向南迁移扩散的趋势,且人口密度变化的区域差异持续扩大,少部分区域人口快速增长,人口密度优势显著。(4)人口空间分异是自然环境和经济社会因素共同作用的结果,经济发展水平、创新能力和吸纳就业能力等是人口密度变化的主要因素,其中创新能力的影响作用不断增强。     

西部地区人口迁移与经济增长关系的演进分析

笔者首先对改革开放以来西部地区人口迁移的规律和特征做出分析和判断,在此基础上运用内生人口迁移经济增长模型,实际测算了近十几年来西部各省区省际人口迁移对经济增长的影响强度。结果显示,各省区的人均产出与人口净迁移率之间存在较高的正相关性,但人口迁移对经济影响的强度有所差别,从整体来看,西南地区净迁移人口的作用更大一些。此外,没有任何迹象表明省际人口迁移伴随有地区间经济发展水平的收敛(趋同),相反,正是因为地区间经济发展水平的不断扩大,才会形成以四川、新疆、陕西等为流入中心的省际迁移人口聚集地。     

人口分布对新疆经济发展的时空效应研究

新疆人口分布的时空变化与经济发展的综合效应表现为北疆人口密度高于南疆，东疆人口密度最低；北疆经济密度最高，其次是东疆，南疆最低。人口集中能够促进经济发展水平的集中，新疆的经济发展受到人口集中的影响，而且从长远看还必须认识到水土资源和社会环境对经济发展的制约作用。     

中国新型农村金融机构空间分布与扩散特征

在新型农村金融机构静态空间分布基础上,以“金融密度”为衡量指标,考察2007—2018年新型农村金融机构空间分布与扩散特征,结果表明:①新型农村金融机构空间分布呈整体分散但相对集中状态,从形式上覆盖了31个省份,但实际覆盖空间非常狭小。②基于ArcGIS的村镇银行经济金融密度、人口金融密度和地理金融密度分析发现两个突出的空间扩散特征,一是新型农村金融机构虽然大部分在中西部地区,但空间分布存在省级差异和地区不均衡;二是它们基本遵循从经济发展水平较好地区向经济发展欠佳地区、人口密度较大到人口密度低地区等空间扩散路径,但在面积相等条件下,人口密度、基础设施、信用体系、运营成本与金融风险等因素导致这一扩散路径逆转。③最后结合金融科技趋势,提出政策层面适度调整农村金融发展思路,将重心调整至“数字金融”探索改善金融可达性的建议。     

Simulating the spatial distribution of population and emissions to 2100

Urbanization and economic development have important implications for many environmental processes including global climate change. Although there is evidence that urbanization depends endogenously on economic variables, long-term forecasts of the spatial distribution of population are often made exogenously and independent of economic conditions. It is common for research concerning long-run projections of global environmental change to use population density as the primary means to spatially distribute emissions projections. However, researchers typically utilize year 1990 cross-sectional population data to distribute their emissions projections for both the short- and long-term, without projecting any changes in population density. Thus, a beta distribution for individual countries/regions is estimated to describe the geographical distribution of population using a one-degree-by-one-degree latitude–longitude global population data set. Cross-sectional country/regional data are then used to estimate an empirical relationship between parameters of the beta distribution and macroeconomic variables as they vary among countries/regions. This conditional beta distribution allows the simulation of a changing distribution of population, including the growth of urban areas, driven by economic forecasts until the year 2100.     

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND NON‐MONOTONIC SPATIAL TRANSITIONS

The purpose of the present study is to analyse non‐monotonic spatial changes accompanying economic development. A dynamic two‐region model with endogenous human capital and converging processes to its long‐run equilibria is investigated. The main focus of the present study is to investigate how the level of migration cost influences the shape of a converging process. From the analysis of the model, population distribution draws an inverted‐U‐curve to describe economic development when the cost of migration is low enough. Also, the transition of interregional income inequalities is an inverted‐U when migration cost is at an intermediate level.     

Migration and the phases of population redistribution

This paper describes a framework for major historical settlement patterns, the major stages of population redistribution that accompany such migration, and the other forms of migration that occur within a given settlement pattern. Using a top-down approach has the advantage of tying together a number of diverse types and patterns of migration from differing historical periods and geographic areas. This broad macro level framework is one in which the level of social and economic interaction increases with economic development. With increasing economic development comes the need for greater interaction through the exchange of goods and the establishment of commercial and administrative functions for society. Explanation of the changing trends in population redistribution requires a detailed look at the phases of population redistribution: 1) initial urbanization, 2) frontier expansion, 3) traditional urbanization, 4) overurbanization, 5) suburbanization, and 6) metropolitan and nonmetropolitan turnaround. Less massive migration movements occur within a given settlement pattern as adjustments are made in the population distribution to reflect the relative economic fortunes of competing subunits of the society. In addition, migration may occur with little or no population redistribution because the net migration cancels out a differential in natural increase between subunits, or because the gross in-migration and out-migration cancel out and produce close to zero net migration. Lastly, research on the current migration turnaround from metropolitan to nonmetropolitan areas, emphasizing the change in social interactions from face to face contact to a society in which a large portion of interactions can be performed at a distance, is suggested.     

广东省流动人口的特征及其变化

利用人口普查数据,描述了广东省流动人口的规模、结构、分布、迁移、社会经济等方面的特征及变化。广东省流动人口规模巨大,性别比升高且在各年龄组呈现均衡化趋势,年龄结构老龄化,受教育水平明显提高,地区及区域分布存在较大差异,来源地以外省为主且主要集中于临近的中西部省份,居留时间呈现两极分化且以经济目的为首要迁移原因;同时,流动人口的就业率较高,行、职业分布与户籍人口具有一定的互补性。流动人口的特征及其变化对广东省的社会、经济及人口发展提出了挑战。     

乡村收缩背景下松嫩平原乡村地区人口—经济空间耦合关系

以松嫩平原乡村地区32个县域单元为例,基于空间自相关分析及人口集中度指数、经济集中度指数、人口与经济分布不一致指数的测度,揭示乡村收缩背景下松嫩平原乡村地区人口—经济的空间耦合关系。结果表明:(1)2000—2018年,松嫩平原乡村地区人口数量先增加后减少,人口密度空间分布呈现"南密北疏"的格局。(2)人口空间分布的关联性较强,呈现典型的集聚分布模式,人口集中度指数南高北低且高值区域逐渐向北扩展。(3)经济集中度分布格局多呈现"双核"模式,且经济空间分布不均衡性大于人口空间分布的不均衡性。总体来看,近20年来,松嫩平原乡村地区人口—经济的空间耦合类型中,协调发展型和经济迟滞型的县域类型居多。     

The migration policy of developed Socialist society: problems of improvement

In the USSR the need for migration policy stems from objective processes in the development of socialist production and from its constant structural and territorial modifications, which are particularly palpable under current conditions, at a time when vast new regions are undergoing intensive development. Migration policy, to play the part of an effective instrument for exerting a purposeful influence on migration processes, must be stable in its basic directions and relatively flexible when it is necessary to react quickly to changes in various relatively local circumstances. The determination of criteria of optimization of migration processes is of paramount significance for the solution of problems of migration policy. The improvement of migration policy under the conditions of developed socialism must be based on the known patterns of reproduction of the population. At the same time it is necessary to consider the fact that the migration of the population proper can be considered as the source of regional differences in this reproduction and simultaneously is their consequence to a considerable degree. Consequently, 1 of the approaches to the elaboration of migration policy measures is oriented toward the equalization of conditions of population reproduction at the settlement and regional level. Many investigators of the problem of retaining youth in the countryside and of attracting skilled persons to rural areas believe the optimization of the productive and nonproductive spheres of activity to be the solution. Migration policy is implemented at 3 levels: the population as a whole; the collective; and the individual. Migration policy measures are divided according to the nature of their impact on the population into economic, moral, and administrative categories with the leading role assigned to economic measures. Among the economic measures that stimulate migration, a leading role is played by cash payments in the form of wage increases and one time grants. Recognizing the role of distribution on the basis of labor in the regulation of the migratory mobility of the population, the general direction of improvement of migration policy consists in the further raising of the role of consumption funds and particularly the fund for the joint satisfaction of requirements. The superiority of social consumption funds over wages in attracting and retaining the population stems particularly from the fact that the consumption of goods and services available free of charge or for a reduced charge occurs only at the place where they are offered. Ecomonic measures of migration policy must consider the fact that work incentives have recently included creative stimuli associated with the character, content, and conditions of work.     

中国省域人口迁移的经济增长效应——基于内生增长视角的实证分析

陈述了改革开放以来我国的人口迁移规律,从理论上分析了人口迁移的动态变迁过程,并结合一般均衡理论、新古典增长模型说明了人口迁移过程中的经济发展水平变动特征。构建含带人口迁移因素的内生增长模型,对人口迁移的内生增长作用机制作出了解析,并以此为基础实证分析了我国省域近10年来人口迁移对经济增长的内生影响特征与变动趋势。二元人口迁移存在明确的动态均衡过程,受其影响,会导致城乡两部门出现产出的一般均衡状态,而这一状态符合新古典增长模型所设定的假设条件与稳态结论。从实际情况看,我国省域间的城乡二元人口净迁移具有明确的经济增长效应,同时不同省份、四大区域总体上表现出增长效应递减特征。     

山西省人口分布与区域经济协调发展研究

不均衡性是人口与经济分布的最基本属性，人口与经济的空间集中化是区域发展的内在规律。通过对山西省人口与经济分布在中、东、西三大地带及分市县层次上的相关关系及动态演进的多侧面分析，表明：山西省人口与经济分布不均衡性明显，人口经济活力中部强，而东西部山区弱；动态演化总体上具有向中部地带集聚的趋势，符合区域发展的基本规律。但是，1990年以来又有分散化发展的趋势，特别是西部丘陵山区人口与经济动态呈逆向演化态势，是人口与经济协调发展问题最为突出的地区。21世纪初，应进一步实施人口与经济空间集中化战略，建立起人口、经济与生态环境协调发展的区域格局。     

1990年代上海人口密度模型及演变

以两次人口普查数据为基础,利用单核心和多核心人口分布模型模拟了上海1990年代的人口分布模型。(1)单核心人口密度模型能够较好地描述1990年代上海人口分布。Clark模型在拟合1990年的城市中心区和2000年的城市中心区以及中心近郊区时占优。Smeed模型在拟合包括郊区的全市地域范围的人口分布时占优。(2)多核心模型能够更好地描述上海的人口密度分布。1990年的模拟,上海有2个人口分布次中心,都分布在城市的核心区边缘区,多核心结构刚刚发育,城市核心对上海人口分布起主要作用,2000年模拟表明,上海有6个人口分布次中心,分布在中心区和近郊区,各个次中心对人口分布都有重要影响,多核心结构已经发育较为成熟。2000年上海人口扩散的距离较1990年远。(3)随着上海城市经济的发展和人口分布的变动,上海人口空间结构已经从简单的单核心结构变为复杂的多核心结构。由于上海城市郊区的发展,城市郊区和原城市核心区一起组成了新的城市核心区。上海人口空间结构变化日趋复杂化。     

本地非农就业、外出务工与中国农村收入不平等*

随着巨大的经济和社会变革,中国的收入不平等程度发生了巨大变化。依据CHIP家庭微观调查1988-2007年的数据,使用基尼系数分解以及非参数分解等多种方法,本文试图对本地非农就业、外出务工等不同类型的家庭从业模式与农村收入不平等的关系进行较为全面的探讨。研究得出了一些有价值的结论：首先,从整体的收入分布来看,早期的农村地区的发展更多伴随着不平等程度提高,而后期经济增长则带来更多福利改善;其次,家庭主要非农收入来源是本地非农就业,外出务工所得具有缩小收入差距的作用,而本地非农就业则具有扩大作用,随着时间推移其作用程度也有所改变;最后,经济增长成果惠及不同群体,但并非平均分配,不同群体获益情况不同,增长和不平等通过作用于不同类型家庭影响到最终的收入分布。     

Is globalization detrimental to financial development? Further evidence from a very large emerging economy with significant orientation towards policies

This study attempts to explore the relationship between globalization and financial development by endogenizing economic growth, population density, inflation and institutional quality for India during the period from 1971–2013. Using the more conclusivecombined cointegration method, the study provides evidence of cointegration among these variables. The long-run and short-run estimates from the ARDL model and causality tests, respectively, suggest that globalization in its all forms (political, social and economic) and its overall measure as well as inflation are detrimental to financial development, while economic growth and population density both promote financial development. Furthermore, the results also point out that institutional quality is not conducive to financial development in India, and there exists a feedback effect between financial development and inflation. Moreover, financial development is influenced by economic growth, institutional quality and population density.     

1990-2013年国际人口迁移特征、机制及影响研究

在全球化背景下国际人口迁移呈持续增长态势。利用"2013年全球国际人口迁移趋势"和"2013年经合组织国家国际人口迁移展望"数据,分析1990-2013年国际人口迁移的规模、流向、结构等的变动趋势及区域特征,揭示国际人口迁移的主要动力机制,包括发达国家和发展中国家之间经济社会发展的巨大差距、经济全球化、世界经济政治格局变动、国际移民政策调整和人口规模等,以及国际人口迁移对迁入国和迁出国经济发展、劳动就业、财政收支、人口增长等方面产生的影响。     

Innovation,structural change and demand evolution: does demand saturate?

In this paper the exploration of the interaction mechanisms between the evolution of demand and the overall process of differentiation of the economic system is pursued in a twofold way: (i) the question is asked whether demand indeed saturates and whether such saturation is required for an ongoing economic development; (ii) the impact of the income distribution on the evolution of demand and thus on economic development is investigated. To study the existence and impact of demand saturation, Engel curves are calculated under different conditions. To study the impact of income distribution, TEVECON distinguishes within the population of the economic system two social classes, which differ in their level and quality of education, and thus for their human capital and wages.     

Population–Environment Interactions: European Migration, Population Composition and Climate Change

The paper addresses the collision of two twenty-first Century transitions—the unprecedented change in the size, composition, density and distribution of the human population, and rapid change in the earth’s natural environment, in part a response to the above. It argues that it is important to consider these aspects of population change and environment together in order to understand the reality of any mitigation that may be made. Following a review of research which is beginning to address not only the environmental impact of population growth, but also of changes in density, distribution and composition, the paper turns to explore the interaction of population composition and density with environmental change through addressing interactions between migration, ageing populations and climate change. It considers a key population question facing the EU, that of the demographic deficit, and addresses how the mitigating role of migration will be affected by future climate change. It thus considers whether migration is a valid policy approach in the context of Europe’s demographic deficit and the impact of climate change on this relationship.