商业银行流动性风险管理研究

近年来,我国商业银行流动性持续宽松.本文指出,我国商业银行在流动性过剩的掩盖下仍存在流动性风险隐患.同时阐释了商业银行潜在的流动性风险主要表现,分析了当前流动性风险管理的主要难点和问题,并给出若干政策建议.     

商业银行体系流动性过剩现象及风险管理

目前,流动性过剩是一个全球性的问题,而这一现象在我国近年来表现尤为突出,无论是通货膨胀,还是资产价格泡沫,都与流动性过剩有关.对于流动性过剩现象及风险,必须要有一个清楚的了解和认识,进而有针对性地制定风险管理方案.     

流动性过剩的诊断与从紧货币政策质疑

流动性过剩往往被看做经济过热的征兆,这种基于有效需求的理论不能用来解释消费、投资不足的金融主导性流动性过剩.与内生性的货币供给不同,这种流动性过剩带有外生性,独立于名义GDP流量变动的存量过剩.有效需求的紧缩政策在消除存量过剩时伴随的将是流量的减缩.本文最后给出了不同于基于有效需求的消除流动性过剩的若干思路.     

当前商业银行流动性过剩的成因与对策分析

随着国内存贷差的不断上升,商业银行的风险逐步集中于流动性过剩带来的困境。本文从分析商业银行流动性过剩问题日益显现的原因入手,进而分析了流动性过剩对银行和宏观经济的负面影响,并在此基础上,提出了解决流动性过剩的若干对策建议。     

我国经济流动性过剩

当前,流动性过剩已成为我国经济运行中的突出问题,有的学者认为,中国已逼近甚至已经陷入流动性陷阱。本文介绍流动性过剩的判定和我国存在的流动性过剩,进而分析当前我国并未陷入流动性陷阱。     

流动性过剩的再思考

近三年来,我国对于"流动性过剩"的讨论越来越热烈,从银行业渐渐扩大到了全社会,但笔者认为对"流动性过剩"基本概念理解上的混淆使得各方在探讨问题时着眼点不同,不易达成共识.笔者试图从"流动性过剩"基本概念的理解上入手,对中国目前商业银行流动性过剩的判断标准及形成原因进行分析,并对解决问题的路径选择进行了探讨.     

中国商业银行流动性过剩问题研究

近年来,中国商业银行信贷资金流动性过剩问题凸显。流动性过剩不仅导致资产价格激增和银行间过度竞争,而且影响着国家的宏观调控政策效果。通过对中国商业银行流动性过剩现状、成因分析,从转变银行经营理念和金融市场体系改革等方面给出建议。     

国际收支与流动性过剩

本文对当前中国是否存在流动性过剩问题进行了探讨，并通过对近年来我国国际收支状况的分析和考察，从国际收支的外部性失衡角度出发，来阐释我国金融体系流动性过剩的原因，并在此基础上提出了相关的政策性建议。     

我国商业银行流动性过剩问题研究

近年来,我国商业银行流动性过剩问题日趋突出。因此,从流动性过剩的表现出发,分析了我国商业银行流动性过剩的影响及原因,并据此提出了转变经济增长方式、加强汇率制度改革和加快金融创新的建议,以解决商业银行流动性过剩问题。     

流动性过剩的成因与破解对策

流动性过剩问题近年来日益受到我国理论界及实务界的关注,并已成为当前经济运行中的焦点问题.本文深入分析了我国人民币流动性过剩的现状及成因,并在流动性存在相对过剩特征的背景下,提出了有效破解流动性过剩风险的政策建议.     

我国银行体系流动性过剩原因的实证检验

近年来“流动性过剩”已成为我国的一个热点问题。本文从宏观角度出发,选取银行存贷差等可以反映流动性过剩的指标,以2000年1月-2007年10月的相关数据为基础,采用协整分析、格兰杰因果关系检验等方法得出以下结论：流动性过剩同外汇占款、货币发行量、股票市场以及贸易结构存在协整关系,外汇占款、M2、股价可以视为导致存贷差不断扩大即流动性过剩的原因,但目前贸易结构并不是导致我国流动性过剩的直接原因。     

关于解决流动性过剩问题的初步思考

本文从流动性的内涵和外延入手,分析了我国流动性过剩的全球背景和我国流动性过剩的表现及结构性特点,提出了解决流动性过剩,要坚持"市场为主、各方联动、化多为少、化少为多、标本兼治、综合解决"的思路,指出当前重点是解决经常账户顺差过大,流动性过剩的来源问题,以及农村地区资金匮乏,导致资金配置结构性失衡的问题。     

流动性过剩与中国通货膨胀关系的实证分析

本文首先从理论上分析了流动性过剩的各种度量方法和影响通货膨胀的重要变量,然后采用中国季度数据,在多变量VAR模型的基础上,运用协整分析和ECM等方法发现,在长期内流动性每提高1％,会带来通货膨胀上涨0．79％。脉冲响应函数和方差分解表明流动性过剩和经济过热冲击对我国通胀有持久的正向影响,而国外通胀冲击对我国外溢效应甚微。     

流动性的变化特征及应对策略

20世纪80年代以来,资本市场迅猛发展、金融创新层出不穷,不同层面的流动性呈现出新的变化特征,并且相互影响共同作用于经济。近年来,全球经济出现的流动性过剩局面、次贷危机中流动性突然逆转,导致流动性紧缩,这些经济形势的变化都与流动性的变化密切相关,加强对流动性的研究和管理也成为各国宏观经济政策的主要任务。本文特别对流动性的变化特征,包括不同层面流动性的特征及其相互作用的特征进行了研究。     

Liquidity shocks: A new solution to the forward premium puzzle

The frequent empirical failure of uncovered interest rate parity raises a question that has not been definitively answered: why do predictable excess returns on currencies persist in competitive currency markets? Supported by data from nine major currencies for 1978:08–2019:09, I provide a novel resolution to this enduring forward premium puzzle by building on the financial economics literature that explores the economic implications of limited access to capital markets. A liquidity shock, or the urgent demand for liquidity by credit-constrained arbitragers liquidating bond holdings, causes losses from sudden drops in bond prices. Arbitragers require a liquidity premium to compensate for potential losses that vary directly with the interest rate. It is this liquidity premium that explains persistent excess returns on currencies. I argue for policies favoring a low interest rate environment and macroprudential controls that ease liquidity constraints to increase the efficiency of international capital markets by reducing the liquidity premium.     

Entrepreneurship and Liquidity Constraints: Evidence from Sweden

Hurst and Lusardi (2004) use a specification with higher‐order polynomials to estimate the relationship between wealth and entrepreneurship. They find evidence against the existence of extensive liquidity constraints in the United States. In this paper, their approach is replicated on Swedish data. A positive relationship between wealth and entrepreneurship is found, which supports the liquidity constraints hypothesis. Alternative methods for handling the endogeneity problem and distinguishing between absolute decreasing risk aversion and liquidity constraints lend further support to the hypothesis. The analysis suggests that there exist liquidity constraints in Sweden, which are possibly more extensive than in the United States.     

Liquidity premia in dynamic bargaining markets

This paper develops a search-theoretic model of the cross-sectional distribution of asset returns, abstracting from risk premia and focusing exclusively on liquidity. In contrast with much of the transaction-cost literature, it is not assumed that different assets carry different exogenously specified trading costs. Instead, different expected returns, due to liquidity, are explained by the cross-sectional variation in tradeable shares. The qualitative predictions of the model are consistent with much of the empirical evidence.     

流动性、股票定价及时变性：来自我国沪深股市的经验证据

本文在经流动性风险调整的资产定价模型的基础上,通过引进四个工具变量,构建了一个检验模型,于时间序列上对中国股票市场进行了实证分析。实证结果显示：我国的股市流动性单位风险溢价于时间序列上存在显著的时变性。从而证实了投资者之内生流动性风险对股票收益率之影响效应,进而揭示了一个货币供给量影响股市的一个作用机制,即股票价格的涨跌由于流动性水平的不同和由前者导致的流动性风险溢价要求的不同而受到影响。     

Liquidity and equity returns in Borsa Istanbul

We investigate the relationship between expected returns and liquidity measures in Borsa Istanbul. To do so, we gather a wide range of illiquidity measures that can be applied to the market. Firm-level cross-sectional regressions indicate that there is a positive relationship between various illiquidity measures and one- to six-month ahead stock returns. Findings of the article are robust after using different sample periods and controlling for well-known priced factors, such as market beta, size, book-to-market ratio and momentum. The portfolio analysis reveals that stocks that are in the highest illiquidity quintile earn 7.2%–19.2% higher risk-adjusted annual returns than those in the lowest illiquidity quintile. The illiquidity premium is stronger for small stocks and stocks with higher return volatility and it increases (decreases) during periods of extremely low (high) market returns.     

Liquidity constraints and labor supply

In this paper we shed some light on how restrictions in financial markets, the so-called liquidity constraints, might act in affecting labour supply decisions of Italian workers. One way to neutralize the existence of binding liquidity constraints is simply by supplying additional labor, instead of reducing consumption. We estimate whether resorting to additional labor supply as a smoothing consumption device is at work by using the Italian Survey of Households Income and Wealth (SHIW). The longitudinal dimension of the SHIW dataset allows us to control for individual unobserved heterogeneity. We also use an IV strategy to address the endogeneity of our measure for credit constraints in labor supply equations due to time varying factors.Our results show that liquidity constraints increase the intensity in the supply of men׳s labor. Constrained men work, on average, 4 hours more than their unconstrained counterpart. Self-employed workers turn out to be more sensitive to binding liquidity constraints, possibly because they are more flexible in adjusting the intensity of their labor supply.