创新思维,建立干部考评管理新机制

为培养一支"政治过硬、业务优良、作风清正、纪律严明"的基层中央银行队伍,1998年,人民银行梧州市中支引进竞争机制,大力推进干部人事制度改革,逐步建立和完善了"公开、平等、竞争、择优"的科学用人新机制,使一批优秀的年轻干部脱颖而出,走上了领导岗位,辖区人行干部队伍不断得到充实和加强,干部人事制度改革取得了良好效果.     

对人事制度建设中几个问题的思考

建立和完善与中央银行性质特点相适应的干部人事管理制度，是一项长期而又艰巨的系统工程，也是人民银行干部人事制度改革的最终目标和方向。本结合实际，深入探讨了近年来干部人事制度建设中的几个主要问题，并针对存在的问题，提出了对策建议，其目的在于进一步健全、完善相关人事制度，用好的制度管理行为，为全面履行中央银行职责提供人才支持。     

关于深化人行系统干部人事制度改革的思考

深化干部人事制度改革,是建设善于治国理政的高素质干部队伍的重要保证,也是加强党的执政能力建设,提高党的领导水平和执政水平的必然要求。本文从分析近几年人行系统干部人事制度改革取得的成效和当前干部人事工作中面临的困难与问题入手,从制度创新的角度,提出了结合实际、突出重点、整体规划、分步推进的改革设想和进一步深化人行系统干部人事制度改革的具体建议。     

我国银行关系中不协调因素对银行业发展的影响

本从银行关系的角度探讨银行业面临的一些问题，提出解决问题的思路，特别强调必须把干部人事制度改革和分配制度改革放在突出位置，尽快建立真正符合社会主义市场经济发展要求的竞争激励机制。     

全面落实"一岗两责"充分发挥中层干部作用

基层央行进行干部人事制度改革,引人人才激励竞争机制,使一批组织信任、群众拥护、德才兼备的干部走上了中层领导岗位.但如何按照"一岗两责"的要求,发挥好他们的主观能动作用,既是强化思想政治工作的一个重要保障,也是改进和加强基层央行思想政治工作的一个重要手段.     

积极探索干部人事制度改革的新路径

深化干部人事制度改革,是加快干部队伍建设的治本之策,也是建设社会主义市场经济体制和履行中央银行职能的必然要求.人民银行杭州中心支行党委坚持以邓小平理论为指导,认真实践江泽民同志"三个代表"的重要思想,积极探索,不断深化干部人事制度改革,建立起人事管理的有效机制,着力造就一支精干、廉洁、高效的干部职工队伍,为中心支行建设提供坚强有力的组织保证.     

基层央行干部人事档案管理中存在的问题与建议

随着社会主义市场经济的不断发展和干部人事制度改革的不断深入,对干部人事档案管理规范化、应用科学化提出了更高、更新的要求。本文作者结合自身管理干部人事档案的实践,对目前干部人事档案管理中所存在的问题,进行了分析和探讨,提出了看法和建议。     

黔西南分行成功推行中层干部竞聘

农行黔西南分行党委根据总、分行有关干部人事制度改革的文件精神,本着"公开、平等、竞争、择优"的原则,通过公开演讲、现场答辩、民意测验、党委决定报上级行批准的工作程序,选贤任能,让德才兼备、懂经营、善管理的优秀干部走上领导岗位。     

以“三个代表”为指导 建立良好的用人机制

人民银行武威市中心支行党委始终把干部管理作为实践“三个代表”重要思想的高度来认识,以人为本,加强队伍建设,在深化干部人事制度改革和改变干部作风建设方面做出了有益的探索。稳步推进干部人事制度改革。去年,党委经过反复酝酿,精心准备,进行了干部人事制度改革,首先建立中     

对我省财政系统人才队伍建设状况的分析

近年来,我省财政系统从推进财政改革与发展着眼,积极深化干部人事制度改革,坚持"以人为本",大力实施人才战略,从人才引进、教育培养、干     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…