基于系统动力学的供应链质量机理

提出了供应链质量的概念,概括了其特点,并用系统动力学的方法模拟了两种典型的市场环境下响应时间和信息共享的组合变化对供应链质量的影响。得出以下结论:(1)在产品需求稳定的市场环境中,同时缩短供应链的响应时间且实施信息共享,可避免缺货情况的出现;单独实施信息共享比单独缩短供应链的响应时间对缺货率的影响要大;若供应链的响应时间不变且不实施信息共享,则会经常出现缺货情况;(2)在产品需求周期性变化的市场环境中,同时缩短供应链的响应时间和实施信息共享可最有效地抵制牛鞭效应的影响;单独缩短供应链的响应时间远没有单独实施信息共享对牛鞭效应的抵制作用大;若缩短供应链的响应时间且不实施信息共享,则牛鞭效应的表现最为明显。     

The bullwhip effect on inventory: a perspective on information quality

In recent years, there has been a vast increase in the quantity of information shared across supply chain. We investigate how the timeliness and accuracy of information quality affect the value of information sharing. We use the inventory bullwhip effect (BWE) to measure the value of information sharing in a two-level supply chain consisting of one retailer and one manufacturer. The retailer faces a price-sensitive demand and the price is an AR (1) process. Our study shows if customer demand and retailer’s immediate order are delayed, using retailer’s historical order quantity to forecast can decrease manufacturer’s BWE. If information errors happen, during delivery and utilization, information sharing is not always valuable for the manufacturer. Sometimes, no information sharing can decrease much more of BWE. If information errors occur when the retailer collects demand information, value of information sharing is more significant than when there are no information errors.     

Information sharing about a demand shock

This paper examines two questions in asymmetric Cournot and Bertrand oligopoly with a demand shock. Under which conditions is information sharing a subgame-perfect equilibrium? What is the welfare effect when firms are better off? Given these questions, the normal assumptions in the earlier literature can be relaxed in three ways: demand functions can be asymmetric; a demand shock can affect firms differently; distributions of the demand shock and information signals can be arbitrary. Under these general assumptions, the answer to the first question is: every firm's response to the demand shock is stronger when all firms have perfect information than when one firm does so alone; the answer to the second question is: social welfare increases in Cournot competition, and consumer surplus decreases in Bertrand competition.     

数据交易市场双边匹配模型与决策方法研究

针对平台视角下的数据交易供需双边匹配问题,基于双边匹配理论,提出了考虑模糊语言评价信息、区间数评价信息和0-1评价信息的混合型多属性匹配决策方法并定义了属性匹配满意度函数。以供需主体最大匹配满意度为目标,构建了数据交易供需双边匹配的多目标优化模型,并设计模型求解算法,将多目标化模型转化为单目标线性规划模型进行求解,以获取匹配结果。结果表明,通过对供需双方需求信息的详细分析,双边匹配结果能在最大程度上满足双方需求,同时,优化模型具有合理性及有效性。     

Monopoly with local knowledge of demand function

In this note, we propose a model where a quantity setting monopolist has incomplete knowledge of the demand function. In each period, the firm sets the quantity produced observing only the selling price and the slope of the demand curve at that quantity. Given this information and through a learning process the firm estimates a linear subjective demand curve. We show that the steady states of the dynamic equation are critical points of the objective profit function. Moreover, results depend on convexity/concavity of the demand. When the demand function is convex and the objective profit function has a unique critical point: the steady state is a globally stable maximum; conversely when then steady state is not unique, local maximums are locally stable, while local minimums are locally unstable. On the other hand when the demand function is concave, the unique critical point is a maximum: there can be stability or instability of the critical point and period two cycles around it via a flip bifurcation. Moreover, through simulations we can observe that, with a mixed inverse demand function, there are different dynamic behaviors, from stability to chaos and that we have transition to complex dynamics via a sequence of period-doubling bifurcations. Finally, we show that the same results can be obtained if the monopolist is a price setter.     

产业技术创新联盟信息共享决策研究——基于区块链技术的应用

将区块链技术应用于产业技术创新联盟信息共享领域,可解决联盟信息共享安全问题,提高联盟主体信息共享意愿,加深信息共享程度,进而提升联盟信息共享效率。使用演化博弈方法,构建产业技术创新联盟企业和学研两方的信息共享博弈模型,并通过Matlab仿真对影响双方信息共享决策的政府与区块奖励、惩罚力度、边际成本、风险系数5项因素的影响结果与演化逻辑进行具体分析。结果表明,与传统产业技术创新联盟信息共享过程相比,区块链技术的应用对其共享过程中的各项因素的关键参数值产生了较大影响,更容易推动双方实现均共享的理想均衡状态,但各因素的影响程度不同。有条件的联盟应致力于区块链技术与联盟信息共享网络的融合工作,根据实际情况制定合适的因素组合协同策略,促进联盟的可持续高速发展。     

基于收益共享契约的三级供应链如何应对突发事件

本文针对一个由供应商-制造商-零售商构成的三级供应链,在考虑随机性需求基础上,探讨突发事件对三级供应链的影响,同时改进了协调供应链的收益共享契约,使之能够应对突发事件。     

供应链间横向竞合战略对信息共享与创新绩效的影响研究

以往对供应链信息共享的研究较多,但以供应链间横向竞合战略作为前因变量、以创新绩效作为结果变量的研究相对较少。通过构建供应链间横向竞合战略、信息共享与创新绩效关系理论模型,对广东省163家制造企业进行了问卷调查,利用结构方程模型对竞合战略、信息共享与创新绩效的关系进行了实证研究。将信息共享分为信息共享内容和信息共享质量两个维度,将创新绩效分为工艺创新和产品创新两个维度。结果表明：竞争与合作对创新绩效均有显著正向影响,合作相对于竞争而言对创新绩效的影响作用更大;竞争与合作均可通过信息共享间接作用于创新绩效;合作对信息共享具有显著正向影响,而竞争对信息共享和合作均有显著负向影响。     

Information sharing and lending market competition with switching costs and poaching

We analyze information sharing with repeated banking competition. In the presence of switching costs we find that information sharing renders poaching more profitable in future rounds of competition, since the poaching activities can be targeted towards (more) creditworthy borrowers. We find that information sharing reduces relationship benefits, and, therefore relaxes competition for initial market shares. Information sharing introduces a welfare tradeoff by promoting equilibrium profits at the expense of talented entrepreneurs whenever market power persists in credit market, whereas it is a matter of indifference without market power. Thus information sharing may induce exclusion of creditworthy borrowers from credit markets.     

Incentive contracts in delegated portfolio management under VaR constraint

This paper studies the incentive effect of linear performance-adjusted contracts in delegated portfolio management under a value-at-risk (VaR) constraint. It is shown that a linear performance-based contract can provide incentives for the portfolio manager to work at acquiring private information under a VaR risk constraint. The expected utility and optimal effort of a risk-averse manager are increasing functions of the return sharing ratio in the contract. However, a risk constraint causes the portfolio manager to reduce effort in gathering private information, suggesting that the VaR constraint increases the moral hazard between the investor and the manager.     

产需双重不确定情形下绿色农产品供应链的协调研究

为解决产需不确定性给绿色农产品供应链运营带来的复杂影响,寻求绿色农产品生产商和销售商面对产需双重不确定情形下各自的最优决策,研究从农产品产出和市场需求双重不确定性视角出发,结合目前消费者对绿色农产品的需求偏好,构建由生产商和销售商组成的Stackelberg博弈模型,探究收益共享契约能否有效协调产需都不确定的绿色农产品供应链。研究结果表明:分散决策时的批发价契约无法协调此供应链。引入收益共享契约后,在合适的共享系数范围内,生产商的农资投入量会增加,农产品的绿色度会比分散决策时高,同时销售商的销售价格降低;当农产品订购量变大后,引入契约后的生产商和销售商各自的利润相较于分散决策时更高。     

信息不对称条件下企业跨国并购的动因探析

信息不对称是促使企业跨国并购的重要原因。跨国Cournot垄断竞争模型考虑产出协调和信息分享两方面。非对称信息下并购发生的可能性超过对称信息情形,外国企业总倾向于与一国内企业分享信息,并购的发生取决于需求波动程度及产品异质性程度。     

DEMAND RESPONSE TO COST SHARING UNDER MANAGED HEALTH CARE

We use 1996 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey to examine the demand response of ambulatory medical services to demand-side cost sharing under managed health care and find that demand response to a coinsurance rate is less than that under conventional plans. To address the selection problem, only respondents who were offered a single insurance plan from private establishments are studied. Our results show that managed care, relying on different approaches to ration, has blunted demand response. This suggests that in a managed care context, increasing demand-side cost sharing will reduce costs to plans mainly by shifting costs to enrollees. ( JEL I11)     

用窒息价格辅助定价

本文重点阐述了在假定线性需求是合理的以及窒息价格的相关信息可用的情况下计算均衡价格的公式。它能够让分析人员信服,即使在数据非常有限以及缺乏数学支持的情况下,有效的基准计算也是可以实现的。此外,它还有助于阐明价格弹性与需求变化之间的变化趋势,     

Further analysis of cross-country comparison of consumer expenditure patterns

The present paper analyzes consumer expenditure pattern within the framework of classical demand theory. We compare the linear expenditure system (LES) with two other demand systems based on utility-maximizing behavior: a generalized linear expenditure system (GLES) and the indirect addilog expenditure system (IAES). Our data consists of annual time series, 1950–1965, for 11 OECD member countries.The main results of this paper are that consumer expenditure patterns can be explained by emperical demand models based on utility-maximizing behavior. Furthermore the GLES model, while not without its share of weaknesses, seems to be more attractive than the IAES and LES models.     

欠发达地区校企良性互动机制的创新探讨——以永州市为例

面临承接东部产业转移的大好时机,永州等欠发达地区在产学研实践中取得了明显成效。但信息交流障碍、价值评判体系不一致、产权归属难界定、配套机制不健全四大因素使得欠发达地区校企互动受到制约。为促进欠发达地方校企良性互动,需要大力创新产学研相结合机制：建立以信息交流为基础的沟通协调机制,以市场需求为导向的引导机制,以知识产权为纽带的利益分享机制,以持续发展为目标的运行保障机制。     

需求链管理在零售企业中应用的分析与思考

需求链管理是以满足需求为核心的管理模式。在重视需求链管理实施主体选择的基础上,对需求链管理在零售企业的运作进行系统分析,得出了如下结论:我国零售企业实施需求链管理应注意紧密结合消费环境、时代背景,以软硬件的完善为基础、以数据共享为前提和以挖掘需求开发新产品为核心。     

A note on the marginal benefits and efficiency of goods provided by local government

This paper focuses on the specification error found in many of the empirical studies dealing with the economic efficiency of local government in providing goods such as education. The paper argues that the compensated demand function—rather than the ordinary demand function—should be used in order to derive the marginal benefits of a given good. The ordinary demand functions used in previous studies would lead to inflated estimates of the marginal benefits and, therefore, to inaccurate empirical results. The paper presents a compensated demand function derived from a linear expenditure demand system. Using public education as an example, it demonstrates how such a statistically unobservable compensated demand function can be used to produce correct measurements of marginal benefits of a public service provided by local government. The results of the investigation into the efficiency aspects of public education will also be discussed.     

我国城市间航空客运量影响因素的实证分析

城市间航空客运需求是航空公司航线网络布局时需要参考的重要信息。文章分析了影响城市间航空客运量的因素,建立了描述城市间航空客运量的半对数形式的线性计量经济模型,并使用我国2002年的352个城市对的横截面数据对模型进行了估计。分析结果表明,城市间距离、机场旅客吞吐量、人口密度、邮政电信业务总量、人均拥有公共交通车辆数以及城市性质和GDP相比,与城市对航空客流有着更为密切的相关关系。文中所建立的城市对客运量的回归模型可以作为航空公司进行航线需求分析的基础。