Current validity of the Delphi method in social sciences

The Delphi method is a popular technique for forecasting and an aid in decision-making based on the opinions of experts, which has been in existence for over half a century. This work evaluates its methodology and reviews its validity in the present day, especially in the area of Social Sciences. Three recent applications in this field are also explained, professional in nature, which have some characteristics that are not frequent with respect to other Delphi studies published. The main aim of two of these studies was to provide input for economic or statistical quantitative models, using the judgement of expert groups, while the third study aimed to analyse a complex social reality by means of a Policy Delphi in order to obtain reliable information before taking a policy decision. These applications highlight how this technique may be adapted to different social realities and requirements, making a positive contribution to social progress, provided it is applied with the necessary methodological rigour and with a good knowledge of the social medium in which it is being applied. Finally, there is an explanation of a number of lessons learned from the theory and aforementioned experiences, which may contribute to the successful outcome of a Delphi exercise.     

A Delphi technology forecasting approach using a semi-Markov concept

This paper suggests a technology forecasting approach based on a semi-Markov model, which appropriately describes the probabilistic nature of a sequential technology development process. This approach focuses primarily on the utilization of the information that has been skipped in conventional Delphi survey data. That is, through a simple statistic, the interrelationships among sequential technology developments can be extracted in a formal structure of a semi-Markov model from the original Delphi panel's estimates. A simulation technique is developed to forecast the development process by utilizing the information on such interrelationships. This technique provides a flexible and useful tool for R&D planners or project managers, especially in postanalysis of Delphi forecasting. To make good use of the approach, a computer-based interactive Delphi data analysis system (IDEAS) is implemented in IBM PC.     

Theory and applications of the Delphi technique: A bibliography (1975–1994)

Delphi is a popular, long-range, qualitative forecasting technique that has been extensively applied to a wide variety of problems in different domains. Since the method was conceived in the early 1950s at the Rand Corporation, different variations of Delphi have evolved in an effort to meet the unique forecasting needs of different decision makers. This bibliographic study surveys the literature on the methodology and applications of Delphi over a period of two decades (1975–1994). A total of 463 papers were identified out of which 254 papers treat Delphi as a primary subject while the remaining 209 papers treat Delphi as a secondary subject. The study concludes with a brief commentary on the Delphi technique that may be useful for researchers and practitioners in qualitative forecasting.     

The decision Delphi

If Delphi is used as a prognostic tool in the social sciences, it runs the danger of producing a self-fulfilling prophecy. In a Delphi application conducted at the Austrian Academy of Sciences about the present situation and future developments of the scientific-technical information and documentation system in Austria, an attempt was made to apply this principle intentionally.A group of actual decision makers in this field were included in a Delphi panel and were therefore confronted with problems and possible future developments in a field which is considerably influenced by their own actions. The Delphi method was therefore used to structure the decision-making process and to help to “create” the future in reality rather than just predicting it. In this way, an attempt was made to transfer an important field of socioeconomic development from a pattern of accidental development through uncoordinated decisions toward a pattern of broad discussion among all involved social groups and thus toward goal-oriented and well-considered management.It seems that this study represents a further variant of the well-known Delphi technique, a variant which has fundamental differences from the classical and the policy Delphi. For a Delphi application of this type the expression “Decision Delphi” is suggested.     

Enhancing rigour in the Delphi technique research

The cornerstone of good research is establishing integrity. However, identifying and gauging methodological rigour for the Delphi technique remains elusive. This is due to a number of reasons such as the ongoing epistemological debate, along with continual modifications. Consequently, the scant studies exploring rigour are mainly experimental, component specific and outdated. This paper discusses the literature on establishing rigour in Delphi studies, the methodological trinity of reliability, validity and trustworthiness. In addition it presents a discussion of the principal forms of establishing rigour, such as the application of rigour using both qualitative and quantitative measurements and corroborating results with relevant evidence in the field for each individual Delphi. Addressing such issues will help enhance the development and utilisation of rigour in the future.     

ExpertLens: A system for eliciting opinions from a large pool of non-collocated experts with diverse knowledge

The complexity of policy decision-making raises the need to elicit opinions from large and heterogeneous groups of stakeholders with broad and diverse sets of expertise. Existing options for elicitation include small face-to-face panels of experts by using the Nominal Group Technique (NGT), large Delphi panels whose members do not interact with each other face-to-face, and crowdsourcing, which involves an open call for input issued to a large community of people. In an attempt to close the gap between the practical needs of policy makers and the methodological challenges associated with eliciting opinions of large, diverse, and distributed groups, we have developed a new online elicitation system and methodology called ExpertLens. By optimizing the direct interactions of NGT with the larger number of Delphi participants and the wisdom of “selected crowds,” our approach is designed to save on the costs associated with traditional expert panels, while increasing accuracy in elicitation by reducing the potential for group process losses that can occur in large, diverse, and non-collocated panels whose members interact via asynchronous online discussion boards. The ExpertLens approach is iterative, does not require participants to develop consensus, and determines what the group “thinks” by statistically analyzing data collected in all rounds of the elicitation. This paper describes the ExpertLens system and methodology, briefly discusses recent ExpertLens trials, provides conceptual arguments for why it is an appropriate model for eliciting expert opinions, illustrates its main components and analytics by using an infrastructure investment example, and discusses a research agenda for testing the underlying tenets of the ExpertLens approach.     

Editorial comment : Our clientele

The problem considered is that of aiding large, technically unsophisticated groups to make quantitative policy decisions in real time in one sitting. Utility theory approaches, as well as Delphi and cross-impact matrices are discussed. The application of computer technology to such decision making situations is considered and the results of implementing such technology with several groups is discussed.     

Part-time work, school success and school leaving

In this paper, we analyse part-time employment of teenagers still in full-time education, their academic performance, and their school leaving decisions. Our estimation strategy takes account of the possible interdependencies of these events and distinguishes between two alternative states to full time education: entering the labour force full time and going on to further training. We model this decision in a flexible way. Our analysis is based on data from the UK National Child Development Study, which has an unusually rich set of variables on school and parental characteristics. Our main finding is that working part time while in full-time education has only small adverse effects on exam performance for females, and no effects for males. The effect of part-time work on the decision to stay on at school is also negative, but small, and marginally significant for males, but not for females. Other important determinants of exam success as well as the continuation decision are parental ambitions about the child’s future academic career.     

The delphi technique: an exposition and application

The article provides a n overview of the Delphi technique and its related adaptations, as well as practical hints on procedures gained from its use to forecast changes in the market analysis industry. The Lielphi technique has been used many times as a method of forecasting the future ofestab1ish:ed industries, but it has never been used to consider the future of a nascent industry. A case is presented which suggests that companies i n nascent industries have a greater need for long-range planning than those at other stages of a n industry's development, and a greater need for an industry, rather than a company, perspective. Problems such as time pressure on executives and the need for confidentiality are more acute when using judgmental forecasting techniques in new industries. The review of the Delphi process highlights some of the major considerations, s,uch as panel selection, questionnaire construction and administration, response analysis and number of rounds, as well as how Delphi can be modified. Since new industries rarely have established trade organizations to curry out such Delphi studies, the role could be played by institutes of management education.     

The delphi technique: an exposition and application

The article provides a n overview of the Delphi technique and its related adaptations, as well as practical hints on procedures gained from its use to forecast changes in the market analysis industry. The Lielphi technique has been used many times as a method of forecasting the future ofestab1ish:ed industries, but it has never been used to consider the future of a nascent industry. A case is presented which suggests that companies i n nascent industries have a greater need for long-range planning than those at other stages of a n industry's development, and a greater need for an industry, rather than a company, perspective. Problems such as time pressure on executives and the need for confidentiality are more acute when using judgmental forecasting techniques in new industries. The review of the Delphi process highlights some of the major considerations, s,uch as panel selection, questionnaire construction and administration, response analysis and number of rounds, as well as how Delphi can be modified. Since new industries rarely have established trade organizations to curry out such Delphi studies, the role could be played by institutes of management education.     

聚类模型在客户关系管理中的应用以及对特征提取的探讨

随着数据挖掘技术的发展和信息的增长,企业和公司开始运用数据挖掘技术来分析和处理他们在商业活动中积累的关于客户的大量数据,以从中发现重要的规律,来指导公司的营销策略。客户聚类就是一个重要的问题。它根据客户的个人属性和行为属性,把相似的客户群聚集起来。公司可以根据不同类型的客户作出不同的营销策略。本文讨论了有关聚类模型的两个问题。第一,介绍了两种经典的聚类算法,以及他们的复杂度。并讨论它们在客户关系管理中的应用和有效性;第二,讨论了特征提取在聚类过程中的必要性,并给出了如何在聚类模型中进行特征提取的有效算法。     

Identification of future fields of standardisation: An explorative application of the Delphi methodology

This paper investigates the application of the Delphi methodology for the identification of future fields of standardisation complemented by a methodological extension by using various science and technology indicators. By the term standardisation, we broadly mean the process of developing and implementing technical standards within a standardisation body. Underlining the explorative nature of this paper, we describe the process of identifying future fields of standardisation.To provide a systematic forecasting view on complex science and technology fields, a combination of quantitative indicator-based analyses and qualitative in-depth Delphi surveys is choosen. Firstly, statistical analyses of suitable indicators are used to identify dynamic developments in such fields. Secondly, to identify detailed challenges for future standardisation, qualitative Delphi surveys are conducted. To collect and evaluate relevant issues the respective expert communities were included. They were identified by using information derived from the science and technology databases used.The paper concludes with the assessment of the chosen approach and give practical insights for its feasibility based on a review of the existing literature on the Delphi methodology. In addition, an outlook for further improvements and other possible fields of application is given.     

客户关系管理实施决策分析

在激烈竞争的市场环境下,客户关系管(CustomerRelationManagement)对企业增强竞争力意义重大,许多企业不惜巨资投入CRM项目。但国内外CRM系统实施失败率居高不下,其原因是企业做出了错误的项目决策。笔者在文中对国内外企业实施CRM失败的案例进行分析,总结出了CRM决策影响因素和决策框架,希望能对即将实施CRM的企业提供借鉴和参考。     

Desirability bias in foresight: Consequences for decision quality based on Delphi results

In foresight activities uncertainty is high and decision makers frequently have to rely on human judgment. Human judgment, however, is subject to numerous cognitive biases. In this paper, we study the effects of the desirability bias in foresight. We analyze data from six Delphi studies and observe that participants systematically estimate the probability of occurrence for desirable (undesirable) future projections higher (lower) than the probability for projections with neutral desirability. We also demonstrate that in the course of a multi-round Delphi process, this bias decreases but is not necessarily eliminated. Arguably, the quality of decisions based on Delphi results may be adversely affected if experts share a pronounced and common desirability for a future projection. Researchers and decision makers have to be aware of the existence and potential consequences of such a desirability bias in Delphi studies when interpreting their results and taking decisions. We propose a post-hoc procedure to identify and quantify the extent to which the desirability bias affects Delphi results. The results of this post-hoc procedure complement traditional Delphi results; they provide researchers and decision makers with information on when and to which extent results of Delphi-based foresight may be biased.     

Using Delphi for a Long-Range Technology Forecasting, and Assessing Directions of Future R&D Activities The Korean Exercise

This article summarizes and discusses major findings of the Korean Delphi. The Korean Delphi was first carried out on a large scale. The results of the Korean Delphi include the forecast time of realization and an evaluation of importance for about 1200 technological topics. The forecast time of realization was estimated and compared in both Korea and the world's leading countries. We also provide a comparison of the Delphi results among Korea, Japan, and Germany, with some topics in common in the areas of information, electronics, and communications technology. This study interprets the results of the Delphi and explores the future directions of R&D activities with relevance to the Korean Society.     

MEASURING THE PERFORMANCE OF A COMMUNIST COMMAND ECONOMY: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE CIA ESTIMATES FOR THE U.S.S.R.

There are major methodological and practical problems in comparing the performance of capitalist and communist economies. They have been most carefully analysed for the former Soviet Union, for which there was a huge research input, mainly by the CIA. The CIA effort had considerable merit, particularly in assessing Soviet rates of growth. Unfortunately, it was terminated in 1991, partly because it suffered from unduly harsh criticism, partly because its political relevance waned. However, the CIA archives remain an important source for the study of comparative economic growth. It would be extremely useful if they were opened to scholars, a serious loss if they were destroyed.     

RT Delphi: An efficient, “round-less” almost real time Delphi method

The authors have recently developed a new approach to performing a Delphi study that does not involve the use of sequential “rounds” and as a result, greatly improves the efficiency of the process and shortens the time to perform such studies. This paper describes this process, RT Delphi, and illustrates its use in a decision-making application drawn from the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University. The illustrative application involves setting priorities among strategies for dealing with anticipated terrorist activities that might be initiated by a single deranged individual.     

A Delphi-based risk analysis — Identifying and assessing future challenges for supply chain security in a multi-stakeholder environment

Identifying and assessing the potential impact and likelihood of future events, which might evolve into risks, are a prerequisite to identify future security challenges. In particular, risks associated with global supply chains are special since they involve a multitude of international stakeholders with different perspectives on security needs and measures. Therefore, it is essential to determine which techniques and instruments are best suited for risk assessment in complex and multi-organizational environments. The Delphi expert survey technique has proven to be a valuable instrument for long-term decision making support as well as foresight, and has a potential value for risk assessment. We contribute to this research strand and conduct a Delphi-based risk analysis. Our research concentrates on man-made risks in global supply chains which are particularly uncertain in terms of type, location, and affected supply chain partners and can therefore be classified as inherently “wicked” issues, i.e. issues that are multidimensional with often unpleasant outcomes. We illustrate that Delphi research makes a fivefold contribution to risk analysis by: (1) identifying and quantifying risks; (2) analyzing stakeholder perceptions and worldviews; (3) stimulating a global communication process; (4) identifying weak signals, outlier opinions, and wildcards; (5) and facilitating risk scenario development.     

Industry- and company-level factors influencing the development of the forest energy business — insights from a Delphi Study

The global business environment of today requires industries to be increasingly agile in order to create added value. There is a particularly urgent need to innovate and redefine business models in the mature pulp and paper industry, which is continually announcing mill closures and reporting persistent profitability problems. This paper focuses on the emerging forest energy business, which appears to offer many novel opportunities for both the forest and the energy industry. We conducted a qualitative dissensus-based online Delphi study and carried out themed expert interviews in order to identify the main industry- and company-level factors that are most likely to influence the bioenergy sector, its value-creation potential and forest and energy companies' future roles in it. The Delphi technique proved to be a valuable research tool with which we were able to obtain comprehensive information on a subject that lacks historical and financial data, and yet requires input from many quarters. The results suggest that the complementary resources held by forest and energy companies make collaboration in the bioenergy business favorable. Moreover, the procurement and logistics of forest raw material appear to be key success factors in terms of yielding the most synergetic gains. Uncertainty about policy interventions nevertheless causes concern given their relatively rapid effect on the prospects of the bioenergy business.     

Local Content Requirement under Vertical Technology Diffusion

Many developing countries (LDCs) still impose a local content requirement (LCR) regulation on multinational enterprises (multinationals). The authors develop a simple model to investigate whether the introduction of an LCR affects a multinational's choice of technology transfer. The key assumption made in their analysis is that the multinational in an LDC prefers importing intermediate inputs from its home country, for the manufacture of final goods, to purchasing them from local suppliers equipped with outdated technology. However, the LCR of the LDC forces the multinational to purchase a fixed proportion of its intermediate inputs. The authors show that the magnitude of an LCR policy cannot affect the multinational's decision regarding technology transfer under technology diffusion. In addition, an increase in the LCR may foreclose technology diffusion because it could make the multinational establish its own intermediate input supplier(s) and become a vertically integrated multinational.