Work Effort, Moderation in Expulsion, and Illegal Migration

Illegal migrants supply a valuable productive input: effort. But their status as illegals means that these migrants face a strictly positive probability of expulsion. A return to their country of origin entails reduced earnings when the wage at origin is lower than the wage at destination. This prospect induces illegal migrants to exert more work effort than comparable workers who face no such prospect. The lower the probable, alternative earnings, the harsher the penalty that illegal migrants will be subjected to upon their return, for a given probability of expulsion, and the higher the level of effort they will exert at destination. While the home‐country wage that awaits the illegal migrants upon their return is exogenous to the host country, the probability of their return is not. Given the home‐country wage, a higher probability of expulsion will induce illegal migrants to supply more effort. Hence, different combinations of probabilities of expulsion and home‐country wages yield the same level of effort. Thus, variation in the extent to which receiving countries undertake measures aimed at apprehending and expelling illegal migrants can be attributed not to characteristics of the illegal migrants themselves but to a feature that pertains to the illegal migrants’ country of origin.     

Illegal Migration, Border Enforcement, and Growth

This paper analyzes the economic consequences of illegal migrants in the context of a model of trade and growth. In the model, capital and domestic labor are mobile sectors while illegal migrants are sector-specific. These assumptions give rise to a production possibility curve (with migrants) that lies partially inside the zero migration production possibility frontier. It is this feature of the model which generates ambiguous results regarding the relation betweendomestic welfare, illegal migrants, and enforcement. The steady-state growth path with migrants may lie above or below the balanced growth path without migrants.     

Illegal immigration in the presence of labor unions

"This paper develops a general equilibrium framework of a two-sector economy which incorporates illegal immigration in the presence of labor unions. It demonstrates that stricter enforcement of immigration laws, by reducing the demand for or supply of illegal aliens, benefits all legal workers in the economy. The model is used to evaluate the impact of these policy changes on national income. Results indicate that national income does not necessarily fall when immigration controls are tightened. The existence of a union mitigates the negative welfare impact of a reduction in the number of illegal immigrants."     

Intentions to Return of Clandestine Migrants: Comment

We take issue with the reasoning of Coniglio et al. ( 2009 ) that whereas better‐skilled illegal migrants will prefer to return‐migrate, lower‐skilled illegal migrants will not. We argue that under asymmetric information, all the illegal migrants are initially paid a wage based on the average productivity of the group of illegal migrants. The better‐skilled illegal migrants thus face two “taxes:” being paid less than if they were legal, and being averaged down. Therefore, better‐skilled illegal migrants can be expected to expend more effort to become legal than lower‐skilled illegal migrants. And once legalized, there is no reason for the better‐skilled illegal migrants to want to return to their country of origin more than the lower‐skilled illegal migrants. Thus, it is the lower‐skilled illegal migrants that are likely to dominate the return migration flow. We argue that in other respects too, the model of Coniglio et al. is not based on reasonable assumptions, and that even under the postulated assumptions, the model suffers from several inconsistencies. In particular, when the rate of return to savings is an increasing function of skill level, we would expect there to be few better‐skilled individuals among illegal migrants in the first place. Also, an obvious distinction between savers and borrowers is ignored.     

Wage indexation,migration, and unemployment

This article sets up a two-goods model with wage indexation and migrants. A dual labor market is introduced where the domestic workers receive an indexed wage while migrants receive a market-determined wage. The traded sector may be assumed to be unionized while the non-traded goods sector is non-unionized giving rise to flexible wages. This provides an example of segmentation and wage indexation. The wage indexation creates unemployment in the traded sector and the segmentation allows this unemployment to persist. The main results obtained are: sector-specific migration of labor may raise domestic welfare, while with capital accumulation such migration necessarily raises the relative price of the non-traded goods, leading to structural adjustment.     

The effect of mode 4 liberalization on illegal immigration

This paper aims to assess the impacts of the temporary movement of workers on the illegal immigration. It uses a discrete time, forward-looking model with heterogeneous agents, in order to describe the decision made by illegal migrants from developing countries. Illegal migrants are supposed to accede only to the informal sector and are price takers, as they have no negotiating power. Taking into account these specifications, the theoretical model is solved analytically and illustrated numerically. It demonstrates that under some conditions, the liberalization of temporary movement of workers could lead to a decrease of illegal migration.     

Terrorism and inbound tourism in Egypt: Economy-wide and distributional impacts

Following the January 2011 Revolution, Egypt experienced increasing political instability and has also been the target of intense terrorist attacks. While substantial efforts continue to be exerted by the current regime to put an end to these attacks, it is not clear whether the country's reputation as a safe tourist destination will be restored in the medium run. This paper assesses the extent of the Egyptian economy's vulnerability to a prolonged tourism shock using an economy-wide framework. The simulation results reveal that a shock to tourism has a significant impact on the Egyptian economy, as a rebound of inbound tourism substantially increases both GDP and welfare. Consequently, it pays for the government to put measures in place to moderate the effect of negative shocks to inbound tourism. A subsidy to health tourism was found to boost both economic growth and welfare.     

Congestion and Optimal Immigration Policy

This paper presents a model to explain the stylized fact that many countries have a low ratio of migrants in their population while some countries have a high ratio of migrants. Immigration improves the income of the domestic residents, but migrants also increase the congestion of public services. If migrants are unskilled and therefore pay low taxes, and the government does not limit access to these services, then the welfare of the domestic residents decreases with the number of migrants. Visa auctions can lower the cost of immigration control and substitute legal migrants for illegal migrants. If the government decides to limit the access of migrants to public services, immigration control becomes unnecessary and the optimal number of migrants can be very large.     

Migrants’ well-being during the global financial crisis: Economic and social predictors

This paper investigates the economic and social predictors affecting the well-being of temporary migrants before, during and after the financial crisis. Exploiting unique panel data which cover migration spells from Tajikistan to Russia between 2001 and 2011, we find that migrants earn less but stay longer in the destination during the crisis; at the same time, they become more exposed to illegal work relations, harassment and deportation through the Russian authorities. The overall income loss can be attributed to wage cuts and to rising illegal employment that is generally poorly paid. Despite the similarities in the demographics and jobs of migrant workers, we find substantial heterogeneity in how the financial crisis affects their well-being. Migrants who experience wage losses during the crisis rationally stop migrating.     

资源非优省会城市旅游发展研究——以海口为例

省会城市是一个省的政治经济文化交通中心,但不一定具有丰富的旅游资源。海口市属于资源非优省会城市。旅游发展中存在资源特色不够明显,竞争力不够突出、文化氛围不浓、城市形象不鲜明、旅游产品低端分散、基础设施建设滞后,规划不尽合理等诸多问题。今后应突出省会优势和文化特色,抓好节庆旅游会议旅游;抓住周边市场和本地市场,整合周边旅游资源,实行连片开发;开展乡村旅游和生态旅游;挖掘文化内涵,搞文化旅游;依靠科研力量,开展科普旅游;做好旅游服务,开展商业旅游。     

TOURISM AND REGIONAL IMMISERIZATION

Abstract.  This paper analyzes the consequences of tourism in rural and urban areas on regional incomes, welfare and urban unemployment using a generalized Harris Todaro model. In this model two urban and two rural goods are produced. A distinguishing characteristic of this model is that the urban non-traded good is not consumed in the rural region and, similarly, the rural non-traded good is not consumed in the urban region. The most important result we obtain is that a tourist boom in the urban region may immiserize the rural area. Hence the welfare interests of rural and urban consumers may be in conflict as a result of tourist expansion in the urban region.     

Migration and urban poverty and inequality in China

Using data from recent surveys of migrants and local residents in ten cities in 2005, this paper examines how migration influences measurements of urban poverty and inequality in China, and also compares how other indicators of well-being differ for migrants and local residents. Contrary to previous studies that report that the income poverty rate of migrant households is 1.5 times that of local resident households, we find relatively small differences in the poverty rates of migrants and local residents. Although the hourly wages of migrants are much lower than those of local residents, migrant workers work longer hours and have lower dependency ratios and higher labor force participation rates. Including migrants increases somewhat measures of urban income inequality. Significant differences between migrants and local residents are found for non-income welfare indicators such as housing conditions and access to social insurance programs.     

Effects of enforcement on illegal markets: Evidence from migrant smuggling along the southwestern border

The paper analyzes the effects of tighter border control on the illegal crossing market between Mexico and the United States. Combining panel data on illegal migrants with enforcement statistics, the effects of enforcement are found to be moderate: prices of border smugglers (‘coyotes’) increased by only 17%, while the demand for smugglers has remained unchanged. Enforcement has however shifted illegal migrants to remote crossing places. Border crossing is now more time-intensive with higher prices for coyotes and risk of death. This geographic substitution raised migration costs by $140, more than twice the effect of enforcement on smuggling prices.     

MIGRATION AND AGGLOMERATION WITH KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS*

In this paper, a Grossman–Helpman–Romer‐type endogenous growth model is developed that incorporates two regions and mobile workers. While the linkage between final goods firms and intermediate goods firms is strong, the linkage between innovation activities and manufacturing activities is weak in our paper. It is possible for the economy to reach either full agglomeration, partial agglomeration, or segmented agglomeration. We find that mobile workers acquire the highest welfare under full agglomeration. However, under segmented agglomeration, the welfare of skilled workers is not necessarily the lowest.     

旅游体验实证研究——以南京雨花台烈士陵园为例

以南京雨花台烈士陵园为例进行实证研究,目的是了解在具体的旅游情境中旅游者的出游动机、旅游体验的生成过程及结果（包括内容和质量）。采用旅游符号学的方法,通过现场观察和问卷调查获取数据,用SPSS17.0软件进行数据分析。结果表明旅游体验状况与旅游动机、旅游者行为之间具有密切联系。符号解读是旅游者与旅游场互动的重要方式和途径。旅游体验质量与旅游者对旅游元素的关注程度、对旅游元素符号意义的解读之间存在显著相关性,且为正相关。雨花台烈士陵园旅游者体验存在多样性和层次性,其中,崇高是旅游体验的核心。     

黄龙洞旅游开发对洞内生态环境和人的影响研究

通过对黄龙洞年内不同季节定点测定，同时与对旅游影响还不大的龙王洞对比测定，作者发现黄龙滑滑内空气CO2浓度的明显变化主要受客流量的影响。旅游旺季和黄金周客流量急剧增长带来的洞内空气CO2浓度大幅度增长，有利于岩溶作用，但洞内黑暗、高湿、低温的生态环境，对洞内工作人员身体健康有害。洞穴内岩溶景观的变化，主要受漫长的自然岩溶过程的影响，与洞内开发旅游活动的关系不大，但与洞顶山地植被保护状况有密切关系。     

旅游地空间关系的生态学解释--以山西省旅游业发展为例

将生态学的种群间关系理论引入到旅游研究中,总结出旅游地空间关系的基本类型,即竞争、互利共生、偏利共生和寄生。在深入分析各种类型基本特征的基础上,得出了若干有实践意义的基本结论：一是旅游地之间的竞争是福祸相倚的,应当采取各种规划和管理手段限制过度的和恶性的竞争,而鼓励适度的和良性的竞争;二是旅游地空间关系的各种基本类型是可以相互转化的,这种特性为区域旅游开发提供了新的思路;三是在进行旅游资源评价和制定旅游发展战略时,应该综合考虑本地与其它旅游地的相互关系,从而做到准确定位,并进一步趋利避害或化害为利。最后,运用这一理论对山西省旅游业发展中存在的问题进行了剖析,并提出了具体的对策措施。     

资源环境与旅游业的核心竞争力

旅游业以服务为主、重在服务的倾向和观念,是造成旅游发展过程中环境保护和培育未受到足够重视的一个深层理论原因。从旅游者的旅游动机和目的而言,旅游资源环境才是真正的吸引因素,从旅游产品的构成来看,旅游资源环境乃是根本的核心要素。环境对旅游发展具有正向决定性作用,是一种确定的关系;旅游发展对环境的作用则有正负两种可能性,是一种不确定的关系。因此,旅游资源环境的保护和培育才是旅游业存在和可持续发展的核心竞争力。在理论上,应倡导旅游重在环境的观念。     

Investment in Tourism Market and Reputation

Recent contributions in tourism economics acknowledge that the tourism market is imperfectly competitive and, as such, should be studied from an industrial organization perspective. This approach seems especially relevant to shed lights on one issue of importance for tourism destinations: how to achieve sustainable tourism development? Indeed, it has long been empirically observed that tourism development follows a life cycle. After a period of growth, the development of touristic (mountain and seaside) resorts usually stagnate and decline. At least part of the explanation for this pattern is to be found in the evolution of destinations' reputation over time. The present paper investigates the incentives for adjacent tourist resorts to invest in quality in order to maintain their collective reputation. We propose a dynamic model where (1) several adjacent tourist resorts select their tourist flows and (2) invest in order to remedy to the detrimental effects tourism flows have on local environmental amenities. The overall tourist presence and the sum of investments made by tourist resorts jointly define the quality of the touristic product offered by this tourism destination. We assume that this quality cannot be observed by consumers at the time of purchase. However, in this situation of imperfect information, consumers form expectations about the quality of the touristic product offered at any point of time. These expectations define the collective reputation of tourist resorts, determine the position of the tourist resorts' demand curve and constitute the state variable in the differential game. We characterize and compare equilibrium strategies under a noncooperative and investments coordination regimes.