CAN THE CARBONIZING DRAGON BE DOMESTICATED? INSIGHTS FROM A DECOMPOSITION OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND INTENSITY IN CHINA, 1987–2007

China has relied on energy to stimulate its booming economy. As a result, its share of world energy consumption rose to 17.3% in 2009 from 7.9% in 1978. Somewhat surprisingly, through 2000 its rate of energy consumption was about half its rate of economic growth. This trend changed after 2001 as energy consumption rose about 1.3 times more rapidly than did gross domestic product through 2005. Through heavy governmental influence, energy intensity subsequently reduced through 2007, but just marginally. This paper uses the structural decomposition approach to understand key drivers behind changes in China's energy intensity and its energy consumption from 1987 to 2007. In our model, energy intensity change was decomposed into five factors: changes in energy efficiency, changes in share of value added, changes in input structure, changes in consumption structure, and changes in consumption volume. This paper provides insights into how changes in China's economic structure, technology, urbanization, and lifestyle affect energy intensity and energy consumption.     

How to reduce energy intensity to achieve sustainable development of China's transport sector? A cross-regional comparison analysis

China's transport sector has been attracting great attention for its excessive energy consumption and ever-increasing pollution emissions. Thus, reducing energy intensity is one of the top priorities of China's ongoing transport upgrade. In this paper, by establishing a panel data regression model derived from the Cobb–Douglas cost function, we focus on investigating the impacts of energy price and transport productivity on transport energy intensity at the national and regional levels. The study uses the provincial panel data for 2005–2016 to perform regression analysis. The results show that: (1) energy price has a significantly negative effect on transport energy intensity in the whole China and the eastern region, whereas it has no significant impacts in the central and western China. (2) Improvements in transport productivity can effectively decrease transport energy intensity in the whole China and the three major regions. (3) Applying an extended data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach, we decompose transport productivity into four components (i.e., technical change, technology gap change, scale efficiency change, and pure efficiency change) and further differentiate their impacts in different regions. The results indicate that these four components have substantially different impacts in each region. These results provide some valuable insights for policymakers and enterprise entities aiming to adopt measures to reduce energy intensity and achieve sustainable development in China's transport sector.     

Input–Output Anatomy of China's Energy Use Changes in the 1980s

China significantly reduced the energy intensity of its economy in the 1980s. In this paper, we conduct a structural decomposition analysis to explain China's energy use changes between 1981 and 1987—the years for which we have input–output tables. We find that China's energy saving during this period came about primarily by changes in how to produce (production technology changes) rather than changes in what to consume (final demand shifts). The driving force of the energy intensity decline was energy efficiency improvements, which were multiplied across the entire economy through inter-industry input–output linkages.     

“一带一路”沿线国家与中国的贸易发展状况研究

研究目标：探索构建灯光数据对贸易研究的可行性。研究方法：运用1995~2012年“一带一路”沿线国家的面板数据，采用普通最小二乘法、泊松伪最大似然估计方法及工具变量法，以灯光数据作为GDP的替代量，通过传统引力模型搭建桥梁。研究发现：地理距离、边界及区域协定对中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间贸易的显著影响表明灯光数据对贸易研究的有效性；同时，对1996~2012年贸易趋势的预测与实际贸易的对比结果显示，以灯光数据预测的“一带一路”贸易趋势与实际贸易基本吻合。研究创新：首次将夜间灯光数据应用于引力模型研究，对中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易发展状况进行分析。研究价值：开拓夜间灯光数据研究贸易的先河，并结合引力模型的最新发展及微观基础思考拓展性的相关研究。     

REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA: INTERREGIONAL TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE AND REGIONAL COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE

Significant economic disparities among China's Eastern, Central, and Western regions pose unequivocal challenges to social equality and political stability in the country. A major impediment to economic development, especially in the poor, remote Western region, is the shortage of a transportation infrastructure. The Chinese government has committed to substantial investment for improving the accessibility of this vast, land-locked region as a mechanism for promoting its development. The paper examines the impacts of the intended transportation infrastructure build-up on the Western region's comparative advantage and its interregional trade. The World Trade Model is extended to represent this investment and applied to determine interregional trade in China based on region-specific technologies, factor endowments and prices, and consumption patterns as well as the capacities and costs of carrying goods among regions using the interregional transportation infrastructure in place in the base year of 1997 and that planned for 2010 and 2020. The model is implemented for three regions, 27 sectors, and seven factors. The results indicate that the planned infrastructure build-up will be cost-effective, will increase benefits especially for the Western region, and that it can conserve energy overall at given levels of demand but substitute oil for coal. Based on these and other model results, some recommendations are offered about strategies for regional development in China.     

Structural Change in Apartheid-era South Africa: 1975-93

This paper examines the sources of structural changes in output growth of South Africa's economy over 1975-93 using a decomposition method within the inputoutput (IO) framework for analysing output changes from a demand side perspective. It decomposes output growth into private consumption, government consumption, investment and export components and also measures the impact of import substitution and changes in intermediate input use (as indicated by changes in IO coefficients). It is found that, before 1981, overall output growth was multi-components driven with all the above components contributing positively to economic growth. However, the collapse of investment demand is by far the single largest factor contributing to the economic stagnation that categorizes the post-1981 period.     

Analysis of the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China’s stock market based on complex networks

This paper analyzes the impact of the Sino-US trade friction incident in 2018 on China's stock market by using the complex network methods. Firstly, we divide the Sino-US trade friction incident in 2018 into four research periods. Based on the GARCH-BEKK model and the Planar Maximum Filter Graph (PMFG) algorithm, the volatility spillover network between China's stock market sectors and the stock price correlation network of China's stock market corresponding to the above four research periods are constructed. Next, from the perspective of sectors in stock market, we use various network centrality indicators to build a systematic importance comprehensive evaluation index of industry sectors in the stock market through the principal component analysis method, to explore the impact of the Sino-US trade friction incident on the risk spillover effects of sectors in China's stock market. From the perspective of the overall stock market, we analyze the impact of Sino-US trade friction incident on the overall stability of the stock market through calculating the network topology indicators and conducting simulation experiments. Finally, the main factors affecting the stability mechanism of China's stock market are studied through the probit model. The results show that: (1) The risk spillover effect of various sectors in China's stock market changes significantly in different periods of Sino-US trade friction, and there are obvious cyclical rotation effects among various sectors (2) When some weighted stocks in the stock market abnormally fluctuate or suffer targeted shocks, the China's stock market's ability to maintain stability is weak, and the Sino-US trade friction will reduce the stability of China's stock market, and the higher the intensity of trade friction incident is, the more obvious the impact of the incident is. (3) The important factors that affect the abnormal fluctuations in China's stock market include four types of indicators: the stock market network structure, the fluctuation of important international stock indexes, the fluctuation of commodity prices in the international market, and the domestic macroeconomic indicators. This study provides a reference for China's financial regulatory authorities to conduct macro-prudential management, control systemic risks, and maintain the stability of financial market.     

Challenges of green consumption in China: a household energy use perspective

To encourage economic progress, China's government has been pushing domestic consumption as a substitute for its waning growth in investment and exports. It has also been promoting greener policies for growth, of which green consumerism is a prime component. By examining the economy through the lens of household energy consumption, this paper lays out the challenges the nation must overcome through green consumption. We explore the trends in household energy use and decompose energy used indirectly by households into six factors: changes in total population, urbanization rate, energy efficiency, interindustry input mix, household consumption preferences, and per capita household consumption level. Doing so yields insights into how progress in industrial technology, household income, urbanization, and lifestyles has affected energy use in the production of goods and services used by households. It also offers policy suggestions on how China might guide lifestyle changes to effect green consumption.     

India's Energy Consumption Changes during 1973/74 to 1991/92

The global energy crisis in the 1970s and early 1980s had adverse economic impacts in all oil-importing countries, including India. The objective of the present paper is to analyze energy consumption changes that have taken place in the Indian economy during 1973174 to 1983184 and 1983184 to 1991192, and the factors responsible for these changes. We develop a structural decomposition analysis in which the energy consumption changes are the result of the following six different factors: technical changes; changes in the final demand structure; changes in the interaction term of technical changes and final demand structure; changes in energy exports; changes in energy imports; changes in energy change in stock. Then, we separate the technical changes and final demand structure again, which identifies explicitly the effects of energy consumption.     

改革开放以来中国出口增长推动力的阶段性演进及地区分布差异

研究目标：研究中国出口增长推动力的阶段性演进及地区分布差异。研究方法：基于中国1978~2014年的省级面板数据,采用超越对数形式的随机前沿模型进行分析。研究发现：在经济转型期,市场化改革与对外开放的发展是中国出口增长的首要推动力;在“入世”准备期,中国出口增长由制度因素、物质要素投入协同推动;在“入世”增长期,物质要素投入成为中国出口增长的首要来源;在全球引擎期,物质要素投入协同贸易潜力主导中国出口贸易的发展;地区间出口贸易差距主要源于贸易潜力、资本与制度因素的三重差异。研究创新：对改革开放以来至2008年金融危机以后中国出口增长推动力的阶段性演进进行系统研究。研究价值：针对中国贸易可持续发展面临的主要挑战,提供政策建议。     

Do constraints created by economic growth targets benefit sustainable development? Evidence from China

An economic growth target is a declaration by policy authorities of commitment to that target and the corresponding allocation of resources. The constraints created by economic growth target are an important economic management method in China, which has helped China's economy to achieve remarkable achievements. However, it has also brought about serious environmental problems, threatening China's sustainable development. Using the data about economic growth targets in the work reports of 30 Chinese provincial governments from 2006 to 2017, this paper constructs several spatial measurement methods, such as the spatial Durbin model, to examine the constraints created by economic growth target's impacts on air pollution. The main conclusions are as follows. First, a significant “U-shaped” relationship exists between the constraints created by economic growth targets and air pollution. Second, the spatial Durbin model analysis revealed that PM_2.5 across China's provinces display significant positive spatial spillover effects and spatial agglomeration characteristics. Third, the direct, indirect, and total effects of constraints created by economic growth targets on air pollution are all statistically significant and depict a “U shape.” Finally, the constraints created by economic growth targets have an apparent threshold effect on air pollution, and the inhibiting effects increase with human capital and industrial restructuring. However, with the increase in foreign direct investments, constraints created by economic growth targets may increase air pollution. The conclusions of this paper are of great significance for improving the management of local government economic growth targets and sustainable development.     

How to optimize the allocation of research resources? An empirical study based on output and substitution elasticities of universities in Chinese provincial level

Although significant progress has been made in China's basic research in recent years, there remains a wide gap between research in China and that from developed countries. How to optimize the allocative efficiency of research resources is of great importance for increasing research output. In this paper, using the fixed effect stochastic frontier model based on the translog production function, we estimate output and substitution elasticities of research and development (R&D) inputs at universities in China's provincial level during 2009–2016. We find that the R&D technical efficiency of China's universities, after a rapid growth, has tended to become relatively stable. Improvements of internationalization degree and exogenous R&D capabilities are conducive to promoting R&D technical efficiency, whereas expenditures from government grants inhibit the promotion of R&D technical efficiency; the effects of R&D capital deepening and internet penetration are not evident. The output elasticity of R&D capital is much higher than that of R&D personnel, suggesting that R&D capital is the main driving force of research output. The substitution elasticity between R&D capital and personnel has experienced a change from substitution to complementary since 2014. To realize sustained growth of research output, we should increase R&D input with positive output elasticity or reduce R&D input with negative output elasticity, making the necessary trade-offs according to the substitution relationship between the two R&D inputs.     

低碳经济下的浙江省能源需求情景预测

本文运用情景分析法和能源强度系数法相结合,预测了浙江2010-2020年三种情景下的未来各产业部门的能源需求总量和生活能源需求。同时针对节能减排任务,分析了经济结构对能源需求和能源强度的影响并提出了政策建议。     

The role of biomass energy consumption and economic complexity on environmental sustainability in G7 economies

This paper empirically examines the effect of biomass energy consumption and economic complexity on environmental sustainability in G7 economies. The current study attempts to report a comprehensive analysis of biomass energy and economic complexity on ecological and carbon footprints and carbon emissions. We employ data from 1990 to 2019 and adopt robust panel econometric techniques that account for the analysis's cross-sectional dependence. We conduct cointegration analysis, pooled ordinary least squares (OLS), system generalized method of moments (GMM) and conditional quantile model for our empirical analysis. The empirical findings show that both biomass energy consumption and economic complexity are detrimental to the ecological footprint and carbon footprint. Additionally, we find that globalization positively affects the environment, while we find some evidence that bureaucratic quality improves environmental quality. Finally, in line with other research, we find that economic growth has detrimental effects on the environment. Our results suggest that policymakers should be more cautious in promoting biomass as a clean energy source and that the G7 economies should take advantage of their leading position in innovation to invest more in sustainable practices and investment.     

不同资本账户开放程度下的中国财政货币政策效果分析

研究目标：分析不同资本账户开放程度下的中国财政货币政策效果及福利效应。研究方法：将内生化的政府支出（税收）政策以及包含汇率的价格（数量）型为主的混合货币政策一并纳入一个小型开放的DSGE模型。研究发现：随着资本账户的逐步放开，财政政策方面，减税政策刺激经济增长和促进就业的效果越来越好，政府支出政策刺激经济增长和促进就业的效果越来越差；货币政策方面，国内货币政策的调控效果及利率上升的跨期替代效应减弱。从社会福利损失的角度分析表明：无论是与内生化的政府支出（税收）政策组合还是与财政赤字政策组合，价格型为主的混合货币政策始终优于数量型为主的混合货币政策。研究创新：考察在高、中和低三种资本账户开放背景下中国不同财政货币政策组合的相互作用和经济效应。研究价值：为资本账户放开过程中合理地使用财政货币政策组合提供理论参考。     

Distinguishing China's processing trade in the world input-output table and quantifying its effects

ABSTRACT

Distinguishing processing trade is crucial to national input-output table-based research on China's international trade. This paper further investigates the importance of distinguishing China's processing trade in multicountry input-output table-based studies. We focus on the bias in China's bilateral trade in value added caused by China's undistinguished processing trade. We construct a product-by-product world input-output table capturing China's processing trade based on the World Input-Output Database. Empirical studies show that, if China's processing trade is undistinguished, the profile of China's bilateral trade in value added would be seriously distorted; China's bilateral net trade in value added with some economies, such as Japan, Korea and Taiwan, would be significantly underestimated, while it would be significantly overestimated for some other economies, such as the United States. Distinguishing processing trade in multicountry input-output tables is also crucial when China's bilateral trade in value added is considered.     

产业结构变迁与中国OFDI：2003~2014年

本文采用2003~2014年187个中国对外直接投资国（地区）的跨境数据,实证分析了产业结构变迁及其引起的OFDI行业构成的变化对我国OFDI的影响效应。结果表明,产业结构合理化和高级化对OFDI均具有显著的正向影响,且两者之间对OFDI具有交互效应。在OFDI行业构成方面,信息传输、计算机服务和软件业与房地产业以及科学研究、技术服务和地质勘查业等三个行业占比的增加对OFDI具有显著的正向影响,农、林、牧、渔业与电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业等两个行业占比的增加对OFDI具有显著的负向影响,其他行业占比的增加对OFDI具有不同程度的影响。     

Measuring China’s domestic production networks through Trade in Value-added perspectives

Evaluating the role and performance of China's participation in Global value chains (GVCs) has been a hot policy and research issue in recent years. However, most GVCs-related literature about China focuses on country-to-country relations; less attention has been paid to China's domestic value chains (DVCs). GVCs should have their domestic foundations since strong linkages across domestic firms and regions can improve productivity through gains from specialization, which make domestic industries more competitive in GVCs in turn. This paper applies the so-called Trade in Value-added (TiVA) concept and the decomposition of domestic-regional trade in TiVA terms to re-measure the inter-industrial and interregional linkages in China's DVCs. We show that TiVA-based measures can significantly enrich our understanding on both the structure change of China's regional economy and the position and participation degree of Chinese regions in DVCs.     

Efficiency evaluation of China's high-tech industry with a multi-activity network data envelopment analysis approach

This paper employs a Russell multi-activity network DEA model and divides the overall innovation process into the upstream Research and Development (R&D) process and the downstream commercialization process to appraise the innovation performance of China's high-tech industries from 2009 to 2013. This model can deal with the problems of intermediates, shared inputs and slack-based measure in a unified framework, and the result can provide policy makers with process-specific information on how to improve the innovation performance of China's high-tech industries. The main findings are presented as follows. First, the overall efficiency of China's high-tech industries still remains at a low level, which has its roots mainly in commercialization inefficiencies other than R&D inefficiencies. Second, for most provinces, their R&D efficiencies do not match up with their commercialization efficiencies. Finally, the innovative activities of China's high-tech industries should be driven by the market demand -oriented for the improvement of innovation efficiency.     

Does high-speed railway promote urban innovation? Evidence from China

Empirical discussion in the existing literature on the relationship between transportation infrastructure and innovation remains limited. As one of the most important transport infrastructures, China's high-speed railway (HSR) has greatly compressed the space-time distance and strengthened the linkages between cities, which may contribute to innovation activities. Using the panel data of 285 Chinese prefecture-level and above cities and employing the difference-in-differences (DID) model, this paper examines the impact of HSR opening and HSR service intensity on the urban innovation. Propensity score matching (PSM) together with DID (PSM-DID) method is utilized to address the potential estimation biases. The empirical results demonstrate that HSR has significantly improved the level of urban innovation. Heterogeneity analysis finds that the promotion effects of HSR on innovation are more remarkable in peripheral and small cities. Moreover, the effects of HSR on cities far away from the central and large cities are with higher significance and greater magnitude than cities close to central and large cities. For cities near central and large cities, the service intensity of HSR is more likely to improve their innovation level. In addition, we further find that service industries and private enterprises benefit more from the effect of HSR in promoting innovation. This study can provide robust evidence for the effect of HSR on promoting urban innovation, as well as policy enlightenment for innovation growth and sustainable economic development.