A cointegration approach to modeling human capital formation,self-employment,and economic growth: evidence from Pakistan

This study aims to empirically investigate the dynamics of relationship among human capital formation, self-employment (SE), and economic growth in Pakistan. Using quarterly data of primary school enrollment, SE, and GDP per capita, we employed ARDL bound testing approach to cointegration covering the time span of 1995–2010. We found that in the long run, primary school enrollment, high school enrollment and SE have significant impact on economic growth. Enrollment in primary schools (EP) has a strong positive and significant impact on economic growth, whereas enrollment in high school has a relatively small positive and significant impact on economic growth in the long run in Pakistan. Further, SE has a small, positive and significant impact on economic growth in the long run. In short run, enrollments in high schools and SE have weak positive impact on economic growth whereas, EP has a strong positive and significant impact on economic growth in Pakistan. Further it is found that that there is unidirectional long run causality from self employment to economic growth followed by the bidirectional short run causality between economic growth and high school enrollment, GDP per capita and primary school enrollment, high school enrollment and primary school enrollment.     

Environmental taxes,reforms and economic growth: an empirical analysis of panel data

This paper explores the relationship between environmentally related taxes and the economic growth rate. The analysis also investigates whether this relationship differs between countries that have implemented environmental tax reforms (ETRs) and those that have not. Using panel data from 31 OECD countries over the period 1994–2013, the paper finds that when we allow environmentally related tax revenues to interact with an initial level of real GDP per capita, the overall revenues of these taxes are negatively associated with the economic growth rate in the short and long term. Furthermore, we show that the higher the initial level of GDP per capita, the more environmentally related tax revenues can promote the economic growth rate. The analysis also reveals that the relationship between environmentally related tax revenues and economic growth varies between countries that have a mechanism to redistribute environmentally related tax revenues and those that do not.     

What has caused China’s economic growth?

Economic growth is driven by numerous factors. However, traditional economic theory focuses on certain key reasons, while ignoring the impact of other factors. Since 1978, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth, but also faces low per capita GDP. To clarify the driving forces behind this situation, we used per capita GDP to represent China’s economic growth and performed total factor analysis based on 13 variables in 7 socioeconomic dimensions using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces over the 40 years since China opened to the west in 1978. We found similar determinants in different regressions. Internal trade, privatization and investment were the primary factors driving Chinese economic development. Surprisingly, we found that the contribution of foreign trade to economic growth (per capita GDP) was weak. Education had a much smaller contribution than science and technology. Using per capita income as the dependent variable to provide a robustness test, we found that China’s income distribution has not paralleled its economic development and the distribution of the benefits of GDP growth to citizens must be improved. China’s experience demonstrates that promoting economic growth requires coordinated development of many factors, and that different policy preferences should be adopted to meet different economic development conditions.     

The effect of World Bank trade adjustment assistance on trade and growth, 1987–2004: Is the glass half full or half empty?

This paper studies the association between trade reform, growth, and trade adjustment assistance in a sample of developing countries that underwent trade reforms during 1987–2004. Our analysis explicitly differentiates between a group of countries that received trade adjustment loans from the World Bank and a non-recipient group. The results suggest that trade adjustment assistance is positively associated with economic growth after trade reform in the medium to long run. In comparison to a pre-reform period and to the non-recipient group, the recipient countries registered 0.2 percent higher growth of real GDP per capita, 5.0 percent higher import growth, and 2.5 percent higher export growth over a period of three to five years after trade reform.     

On the simultaneity problem in the aid and growth debate

This paper shows that foreign aid has a significant positive average effect on real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth if, and only if, the quantitatively large negative reverse causal effect of per capita GDP growth on foreign aid is adjusted for in the growth regression. Instrumental variables estimates show that a 1 percentage point increase in GDP per capita growth decreased foreign aid by over 4%. Adjusting for this quantitatively large, negative reverse causal effect of economic growth on foreign aid shows that a 1% increase in foreign aid increased real per capita GDP growth by around 0.1 percentage points. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CONVERGENCE AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN GREECE: EVIDENCE AT REGIONAL AND PREFECTURE LEVEL

The purpose of this paper is to test regional convergence and to investigate interregional disparities in terms of per capita income in Greece. The novelty of our study lies in the use of a disaggregated dataset for an extended time period (1971–2003) at two regional levels (NUTS II & NUTS III). Our results indicate that there is β convergence between prefectures but not among regions, while no evidence of σ convergence is found at both regional levels. Also, the GDP geographic concentration and population density have a negative impact on growth, which outweighs the positive growth effect of population geographic concentration and GDP spatial inequality. Thus, policies aiming at the decentralization of economic activity in Greece might enhance growth and regional equality simultaneously. Finally, we do not find economic dualism across geographic areas; however, rich prefectures seem to converge faster than poor ones.     

Growth vs. level effect of population change on economic development: An inspection into human-capital-related mechanisms

This paper studies the different mechanisms and the dynamics through which demography is channeled to the economy. We analyze the role of demographic changes in the economic development process by studying the transitional and the long-run impact of both the rate of population growth and the initial population size on the levels of per capita human capital and income. We do that in an enlarged Lucas–Uzawa model with intergenerational altruism. In contrast to the existing theoretical literature, the long-run level effects of demographic changes, i.e. their impact on the levels of the variables along the balanced growth path, are deeply characterized in addition to the more standard long-run growth effects. We prove that the level effect of the population rate of growth is non-negative (positive in the empirically most relevant case) for the average level of human capital, but a priori ambiguous for the level of per capita income due to the interaction of three transmission mechanisms of demographic shocks, a standard one (dilution) and two non-standard (altruism and human capital accumulation). Overall, the sign of the level effects of population growth depends on preference and technology parameters, but numerically we show that the joint negative effect of dilution and altruism is always stronger than the induced positive human capital effect. The growth effect of population growth depends basically on the attitude to intergenerational altruism and intertemporal substitution. Moreover, we also prove that the long-run level effects of population size on per capita human capital and income may be negative, nil, or positive, depending on the relationship between preferences and technology, while its growth effect is zero. Finally, we show that the model is able to replicate complicated time relationships between economic and demographic changes. In particular, it entails a negative effect of population growth on per capita income, which dominates in the initial periods, and a positive effect which restores a positive correlation between population growth and economic performance in the long term.     

中美两国经济实力与潜力的比较分析

改革开放以来,经过30多年的发展,中国已重新成为全球经济大国之一。本文利用C-D生产函数和索洛增长模型对中国中长期经济发展进行预测,在国内外研究成果的基础上对美国中长期经济发展进行预测,探讨了在不同情况下中美两国经济的对比分析和追及问题。本文预测结果表明,中国经济只要保持平稳增长,将在2030年前实现多个目标：一是GDP总量超过美国;二是人均GDP超过1.7万美元;三是人均国民总收入接近高收入国家行列;四是商品零售额、商品进口额等宏观指标赶上美国。     

Impact of financial development on SAARC’S human development

The objective of the study is to investigate the link between economic growth and financial development (i.e., broad money supply, credit to private sector (CPS) and bank deposit liabilities) in human development for a panel of selected South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries; namely, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka during 1988–2008; over the period of 1988–2008. The panel cointegration technique is employed for analysis of short and long-run relationship between the variables. The results of panel cointegration found that there is a long-run relationship between financial development indicators and economic growth in human development in SAARC region. The estimated results indicate that in the short run, bank deposit liabilities exerts the maximum impact (i.e., 0.425 %) on human development in SAARC region, subsequently, broad money supply (i.e., 0.301 %) and CPS (i.e., 0.128 %) respectively, while there is a negative relationship between real GDP growth and human capital (i.e., \(-\) 0.189 %). In the long-run, DOLS estimator constitutes broad money supply which increases by 0.912 %, followed by credit to private sector (i.e., 0.121 %) on human development. While, in case of FMOLS estimator, these results are disappear, as broad money supply does not have any significant impact on human development in SAARC region. The coefficient of real GDP per capita in both estimators, have a negative impact on human development, however, the intensity of both estimators are different in nature, as real GDP per capita decrease human development in FMOLS (i.e., \(-\) 0.828 %) and in DOLS estimators (i.e., 0.458 %). The results indicate that due to a low quality of human capital in SAARC region; the direct effect of economic growth becomes negative; however, financial development indicators act as an important driver for increase in human capital in SAARC region. The implications of present research relate to heightening the need for labor market reforms and making the educational system more flexible.     

Measuring health expenditures and outcomes in saarc region: health is a luxury?

The objective of the study is to investigate the link between health care expenditures (HCE), economic growth and health outcomes (i.e., life expectancy (LE), infant mortality and the share of elderly people) for a panel of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries; namely, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka; over the period of 1995–2010. The developed panel cointegration technique is employed for analysis of short and long-run relationship between the variables. The results of panel cointegration found that there is a long-run relationship between health expenditures, economic growth and health outcomes in SAARC region. The estimated results indicate that both, LE and share of elderly people in population have a negative relationship related to the HCEs which signifies that HCEs are luxury goods in SAARC countries. The burden of aging population can be lowered by provision of quality health services and utilization of their experience and knowledge in dynamics of economic development forecasting. Furthermore, there is no significant relationship found between infant mortality rate (IMR) and HCEs which implies that HCEs do not provide sufficient benefits to reduce infant mortality. Similarly, HCEs are not enough in generating GDP, lowering IMR and increasing LE in SAARC region. The implementation of appropriate tax reform, stable food prices and trade promotion for low transaction cost medical equipment is required for the SAARC region.     

Economic growth, size of the agricultural sector, and urbanization in Africa

This paper uses variations in international commodity prices and rainfall to construct instrumental variables estimates of the within-country effect that changes in the size of the agricultural sector and GDP per capita growth have on the urbanization rate. For a panel of 41 African countries during the period 1960-2007, the paper’s three main findings are that: (i) decreases in the share of agricultural value added lead to a significant increase in the urbanization rate; (ii) conditional on changes in the share of agricultural value added GDP per capita growth does not significantly affect the urbanization rate; (iii) increases in the urbanization rate had a significant negative average effect on GDP per capita growth.     

Public and Private Investment and The Growth Process in Developing Countries

This paper examines the relative contribution of public and private investment to per capita GDP growth in developing countries. It extends the basic neoclassical model of growth by separating investment into its public and private components, and estimates this model for a sample of 95 developing countries over the period 1970–90 using both cross-sectional and panel data. Using data on relative supplies of public and private capital stock, rates of return to public and private investment are also computed. The results suggest that once other determinants of growth, such as human capital formation, population growth, and technical progress, are taken into account, public and private investment have different effects on growth, and that these effects are characterized by marked regional and inter-temporal variations.     

Decentralization and economic growth revisited: an empirical note

Although it is theoretically expected that decentralization leads to efficient provision of local public services and stimulates economic development, there is a mixed picture of the decentralization effect on economic growth across earlier empirical studies. Using the instrument variables (IV) technique with the latest cross-country data for the period from 1997 to 2001, this paper found that fiscal decentralization has a significant positive impact on per capita GDP growth. Therefore, when the focus is placed on the latest information on the economic situation in the latter 1990s, decentralization, particularly on the fiscal expenditure side, is instrumental in economic growth.     

福建省地级市经济发展水平综合评价

文章采用人均GDP、人均第三产业总产值、人均地方财政收入、进出口总额、城镇人口占总人口的比重等9个指标,运用主成分分析方法对福建省9个地级市的经济发展水平进行综合评价,并对其进行了聚类分析,进行分类比较,提出了相应的发展对策。     

The impact of the economic cycle on fatal injuries. The case of UK 1971–2007

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of the economic cycle on workplace accidents. In particular, the effect of the usual factors of the economic cycle (GDP per capita, Unemployment) is examined along with the effect of working hours (to account for flexible employment) on fatal injuries (to exclude the effect of under-reporting data) for the period 1971?C2007 in UK. Detailed multiple regression analysis is applied, which indicates a controversial and inelastic relation of GDP per capita (negative) and unemployment rate (positive), but also an elastic relation of working hours (positive) to fatal injuries. Further research in data of various countries is proposed before arriving to certain conclusions.     

基于时间序列的郑州市人均生产总值的预测

随着社会经济的不断发展、生活水平的提高及人口的增加,通过GDP这一宽泛的指标来反映一个地区经济的发展状况是不准确的。由于GDP不能很准确地反映平均每个人的生活水平,而人均GDP则能弥补GDP的这点不足。因为人均GDP=总产出/总人口,它是一个既考虑经济总量大小又考虑人口数量因素的综合性指标,所以常常用来了解和把握一个国家或者地区的宏观经济运行状况、发展水平和人民生活水准。所以论文利用ARIMA模型对人均生产总值进行短期的预测。     

THE BURDEN OF DURABLE ASSET ACQUISITION IN GROWING POPULATIONS

While most analyses of economic impacts of population growth have been equivocal, this article describes a new perspective from which the effects are strongly negative. The economies and diseconomies of population size are largely circumstantial and empirically inconsistent, but those of growth rate are intrinsic and consistent. These impacts are not apparent on income and per capita GDP, but on costs. The article estimates these costs using the logic of calculus rather than marginal accounting. Specifically, the cost of maintaining per capita capacity of durable assets, including infrastructure, equipment and skilled personnel, is increased by population growth by a factor proportional to the working lifespan of the asset class.     

CORRUPTION'S DIRECT EFFECTS ON PER‐CAPITA INCOME GROWTH: A META‐ANALYSIS

Corruption is a symptom of weak institutional quality and could have potentially adverse effects on economic growth. However, heterogeneity in reported findings makes it difficult to synthesize the evidence base with a view to test competing hypotheses and/or support evidence‐based policy and practice. To address this issue, we have extracted 327 estimates of corruption's direct effect on per‐capita GDP growth from 29 primary studies, following a peer‐reviewed and pre‐published systematic review protocol. Precision‐effect and funnel asymmetry tests indicate that corruption has a negative effect on per‐capita GDP growth after controlling for publication selection bias and within‐study dependence. However, multivariate meta‐regression analysis results indicate that the overall effect is not robust to inclusion of moderating variables through a general‐to‐specific procedure for model specification. We report that the marginal effect of corruption on per‐capita GDP growth is more adverse when the primary study estimates relate to long‐run growth, are based on low‐income‐country data only, and extracted from journal papers. The effect is less adverse in studies that use the International Country Risk Guide corruption perceptions index and in those reporting estimates from two‐stage least‐squares estimations.     

IMPACT OF RELATIVE POPULATION CHANGE ON REGIONAL INCOME CONVERGENCE: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

The aim of this paper is to show the impact of relative population change on regional income convergence. Using the panel data of 64 Turkish provinces from 1987 to 2000, the results from modified convergence analyses show that both income and per capita income between provinces in Turkey indicate converging patterns. The convergence rates for the provincial per capita income, however, turned out to be about 30 percent larger than that of income. In order to examine this difference, the impact of relative population change on the growth process is incorporated using a decomposition analysis. The findings suggest that 17 percent of the 100 percentage point growth of per capita income resulted from the change in population share in favour of the provinces with high per capita incomes. The existence and pace of regional income convergence, therefore, may well be related to the degree of relative population change.     

AN APPLICATION OF AN INTEGRATED TRANSPORT NETWORK – MULTIREGIONAL CGE MODEL TO THE CALIBRATION OF SYNERGY EFFECTS OF HIGHWAY INVESTMENTS

A transportation network-multiregional CGE model is applied to estimate the synergy effects of a set of highway projects on value added by region and industrial sector. This synergy effect is defined as a difference between the summation of the net GDP increase from the development of each highway sub-link without spatial linkage and the change in GDP resulting from the concurrent development of all links with spatial linkages. Among nine east–west highways in Korea, the East–West 9 highway increases the GDP by 0.3% over the 30-year time period horizon, with 0.016% of the GDP due to the synergy effect. The East–West 9 highway has the largest synergy effect of US$0.164 billion per year on the manufacturing sector of Kwangju Metropolitan Area, resulting in a gain in a regional GRP per capita of US$15.88 per year. Since most synergy effects are generated in less developed regions, highway development can contribute to the reduction in regional disparities.