行业危机情境下的多组织替代学习研究

危机虽然对组织的运行框架产生破坏作用,但是也可以成为组织学习有价值的来源.针对近年来行业危机频发的现实情况,采用替代学习的理论框架分析了行业内多个组织针对个别组织的危机进行学习的四个阶段.在注意阶段,组织需要选择观察对象及其行为范本;在保持阶段,组织则利用观察到的行为重构心智模式;在动作复现阶段,组织实践他们所学到的内容并不断加以调整;在动机阶段,组织通过强化的方式巩固新的组织实践.此外,在行业危机情境下,这种替代学习不仅需要行业组织自身的努力,更强调各利益相关者在四个阶段的参与、合作和对话.这种社会互动式的多组织共同开展的替代学习对于提升行业危机的治理能力,走出行业危机困境具有重要作用.     

Implications of a world system hypothesis

This paper explores in an informal way four categories of problems and questions raised by accepting the thesis that the world is a single system. Expressed as an hypothesis guiding world modeling and simulation studies, this whole system outlook underlies Forrester, et al. and Levy-Pascal's appeal to cyclical theories of large sociopolitical and economic change. Arguments are given to show that a world system hypothesis is warranted, but not yet fully understood in terms of the consequences which follow from it. The paper concludes by briefly discussing the question of systemic self-organization at the world level, the problem of finding appropriate measures and indices for such large-scale systems, the possible usefulness of a structuralist approach to world modeling, and finally, the issue of relative degrees of human control over large-scale events. The question is raised as to whether long-range planning in an actual world system may be inappropriate in that context.     

组织间合作创新:基于组织形式的梳理

在专业化分工越来越深化的背景下,创新很难由单个组织实现.通过整合组织间的分布性知识更易实现创新.在组织间合作创新中,组织形式的选择由于涉及路径依赖、知识转移、公平性等问题而成为合作创新成功的障碍.本文认为,在合作创新中,组织形式的选择应当考虑一体化程度、网络中心性、治理机制和公平性等因素,以促进组织问的合作创新.     

体面劳动问题研究的新进展与未来研究展望

全球化加剧了劳资关系的不平衡状态,强资本弱劳工的局面得以维护并日益加强,资方为追求利益最大化而忽视劳动者利益的事情屡屡发生。随着转型时期经济社会改革的深入推进,劳资关系问题也越来越引起人们的关注并成为社会的焦点问题之一,全面实现体面劳动成为各级政府的重要方针,企业、各类劳动组织以及劳动者都对实现体面劳动发出了强烈的呼声。金融危机后体面劳动研究有了新进展,未来体面劳动问题研究也大有可为。     

Dynamic adaptive transport policies for handling deep uncertainty

Many long-term transport policy decisions are made by assuming that (1) the range of possible futures is known well enough to predict future changes to the transport system, (2) there is enough knowledge regarding the correct transport system model to estimate policy outcomes, and (3) there is enough knowledge regarding the importance stakeholders currently assign to the various outcomes or will assign in the future. However, for long-term transport policy decisions these assumptions can often not be made, since decision makers, analysts, and experts do not know or cannot agree on (1) how the future will develop, (2) the system models, and/or (3) the value system(s) to be used to rank alternative policies. This paper presents a ‘dynamic adaptive’ approach to policymaking for long-term transport policies that aims at overcoming the shortcomings of traditional approaches for handling deep uncertainty. It allows adaptations in time as knowledge is gathered. The approach is illustrated with dynamic adaptive policies for solving various long-term problems in the fields of road, rail, and air transport.     

Knowledge sharing in an organization

Managers are always seeking effective policies that encourage employees to share their knowledge with others in an organization. The appropriate organizational incentives are difficult to investigate due to human factors and other institutional complexities affecting sharing behaviors of individuals. Conducting laboratory or field experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of various organizational incentive policies is unrealistic. This work proposes a novel agent-based modeling approach to simulate the actions of knowledge sharing between actors in an organization. Several human and institutional factors in this artificial world were manipulated to understand knowledge sharing. The simulation results produce the following interesting findings. (1) The initial state of actors' action affects the knowledge-sharing action regardless of the adopted strategy. (2) Poorer collective capability among the population lowers the knowledge sharing behaviors. (3) The incentive policy has restricted effects for increasing the sharing action. Rewarding each knowledge-sharing action is more effective than the periodic organizational incentives to encourage actors' knowledge sharing behaviors.     

产品伤害危机中影响消费者购买意图因素的重要性:危机严重程度及性别存在影响吗?

产品伤害危机被定义为产品被发现是有缺陷的或危险的广为宣传的事件。本文通过检验在产品伤害危机中影响消费者购买意图四个关键因素(品牌、组织响应、原产地形象、外部影响)的重要性,为组织管理者在危机发生后如何将危机造成的不利后果化为最小提供指南。为了实现上述目标,使用了联合分析。结果表明无论是在危机严重程度高或低情境下,还是在不同性别情境下,组织响应都是影响消费者购买意图最重要的因素,而原产地都是影响消费者购买意图最不重要的因素。一项发现特别值得注意:女性在危机严重程度高和低情境下、男性在危机严重程度低情境下,外部影响与购买意图负相关。基于本研究的发现,讨论了管理含义。     

Organizing growth

We propose a framework to study the impact of information and communication technology on growth through its impact on organization and innovation. Agents accumulate knowledge to use available technologies and invent new ones. The use of a technology requires the development of organizations to coordinate the work of experts, which takes time. We find that while advances in information technology always increase growth, improvements in communication technology may lead to lower growth and even to stagnation, since the payoff to exploiting available technologies through organizations increases relative to the payoff from developing new innovations.     

The Socio-scientific Construction of Global Climate Crisis

This article adapts and applies a securitisation framework to produce an analytical explanation for the heightened geopolitical status of climate change over the past decade, as demonstrated by the breakthrough Paris Agreement of 2015. Rather than speech acts invoking security, the focus of this analysis is on the socio-scientific discourse of global climate crisis that emerged in the several year period leading to the 2009 COP 15 conference in Copenhagen. Two types of experts—contributory and interactional—are identified as the essential and interdependent actors that engaged in ‘crisification’, a novel crisis-based perspective on political agenda setting, in which climate crisis served as a primary discursive device employed by prominent advocates of urgent action. Contributory experts, that is, authoritative climate scientists and their institutions, together with interactional experts—non-scientist social actors who appropriated and mediated scientific data and knowledge in framing climate change as a global crisis—constituted an extended epistemic community of climate advocates. Through an array of speech acts, this extended community effectively co-constructed a convincing climate crisis discourse that consisted of quantitative data artefacts based on CO₂ concentration and global mean temperature, and qualitative invocations of existential threat to human civilisation, which contributed to the ascent of climate change on the global political agenda. In proposing crisification as a complement to securitisation, the article offers a theoretical innovation that facilitates constructivist analysis of issues framed as crises, including geopolitical problems in certain non-military sectors where crisis is a favoured label for perceived threats to core values.     

Applying the Lessons of Asia: The IMF's Crisis Management Strategy following the Global Financial Crisis

ABSTRACT

The paper reviews the International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) non-concessional lending programs following the global financial crisis, with a view to understanding how the IMF applied the lessons of the Asian crisis in designing its approach to crisis management. For this purpose, the paper focuses on the 2008 programs in Hungary, Iceland, Latvia and Ukraine – the first of its kind since the early 2000s – and compares them with the 1997 programs in Indonesia, Korea and Thailand. Our analysis finds the European programs better funded and their structural conditionality more focused. Other than these, the overall thrust of the programs was similar: fiscal and monetary tightening, coupled with banking reforms. The real difference was not so much about content but about philosophy. Relative to the Asian programs, the European programs were characterized by more emphasis on ownership, greater collaboration among stakeholders, more realistic assumptions and greater transparency about the risks and the logic of policy actions, and more built-in flexibility of targets and policy options. This approach to crisis management incorporated the changes that had been made since the Asian crisis in the IMF's policies and procedures to manage capital account crises more effectively.     

The shifting boundaries of the mixed economy and the future of the nonprofit sector

The nonprofit sector exists because it can solve better than for-profit firms problems associated with the provision of products with publicness (nonrivalry or nonexcludability) attributes, or those affected by asymmetric information between providers and customers. This advantage is likely to be eroded in the future by various technological advances, particularly in the area of information transmission, analysis, storage and retrieval, and by the increase in the effective size of markets. Consequently, the demand for nonprofit organizations will possibly decline in the future. On the other hand, the operational efficiency of nonprofit organizations is likely to improve due to possibilities of stricter audit of and control over management made possible by enhanced access by nonprofit stakeholders to budgetary and operational information. This will help nonprofit organizations respond better to various failures of for-profit firms and to the insufficiency of government correctives. It is difficult to forecast the net effect of the myriad factors that work in opposite directions on the demand for and supply of nonprofit organizations, although it appears to this author that the economic weight of nonprofit organizations and their distinctive features will wane.     

“四维度”模式高校声誉危机管理策略探析

近几年各类民间组织和非营利组织遍地开花,在一定程度上为社会营造了和谐安定的良好氛围。但由于组织内部制度的不完善,以及对外界的环境变化敏感度不够,许多非营利组织在其运行的过程中常常面临种种危机,影响到组织的声誉信用,使组织在社会中的形象受损,阻碍自身的生存和发展。文章在探讨组织进行声誉危机管理的重要性的基础上,基于生命周期模型,从四维度提出非营利组织声誉危机的应对策略,以保证组织持续健康地发展。我们将高校危机应对策略缩减为四个维度:事先规划、组织系统、利益相关者沟通、学习反馈。     

A qualitative cross-impact approach to find the key technology

This article presents a qualitative analysis method based on fuzzy relations for a cross-impact model designed for a technology impact assessment. The cross-impact knowledge is often uncertain or fuzzy when dealing with future events. Assessing the cross-impact relationships among future technologies creates a more uncertain or fuzzy situation because of the time and the uncertainty involved in evaluating future technologies. In addition, experts prefer to use linguistic terms or fuzzy values in their predictions. Thus a cross-impact matrix is represented as fuzzy relations on causal concepts. We therefore develop inference algorithms based on fuzzy relations and show a simple technology assessment example to illustrate this approach. This approach is useful in finding the key technology because it considers not only the direct impact but also the indirect impact.     

Comparing land-use alternatives: Using the ecosystem services concept to define a multi-criteria decision analysis

In landscape planning, land-use types need to be compared including the ecosystem services they provide. With multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), ecological economics offers a useful tool for environmental questions but mostly case-specific criteria are applied. This, however, makes it difficult to compare findings. Therefore, we present a systematic framework that includes the ecosystem services as criteria into MCDA. The ecological quantification of the provided ecosystem services is combined with the assigned importance of the single ecosystem services. In a case study from the central Alps, we compared three land-use alternatives resulting from land-use change caused by socio-economic pressures: traditional larch (Larix decidua) meadow, spruce forest (abandonment) and intensive meadow (intensification).Criteria for the MCDA model were selected by experts, criteria importance was ranked by stakeholders and criteria values were assessed with qualitative and quantitative indicators. Eventually spruce forest was ranked as the best land-use alternative followed by traditional larch meadow and intensive meadow. The combined approach of MCDA using ecosystem services as criteria showed how criteria weightings and criteria indicator values influence land-use alternatives' performance. The MCDA-model visualizes the consequences of land-use change for ecosystem service provision, facilitating landscape planning by structuring environmental problems and providing data for decisions.     

The International Financial Crisis Viewed by Experts

The occurrence of the international financial crisis and the spread out of its effects on the global economy prompted experts around the world to think about how to manage the crisis and which measures to implement in order to restore normal economic and financial conditions. In this paper, we present and discuss the results of an international expert survey. We use these experts' perceptions to pursue a twofold target to understand their perceptions about the causes of the crisis, and of the policies to solve it. Interestingly, experts seem to broadly concur on what caused the crisis but their perceptions diverge regarding the policies. Furthermore, substantial differences in perceptions emerge between the Euro Area and the United States. We also find that the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank monetary policies during the crisis are judged barely adequate. Finally, different views distinguish academicians from other experts .     

The automation of thought: information technology holds the key to global maturity1

Authoritative forecasts show that artificial intelligence is likely to automate routine human thought at about 2020, just as automation reduced farm work a century ago, manufacturing work decades ago and services today. This long-term trend suggests that attention is likely to shift from its present focus on knowledge to high-order concerns beyond knowledge – values, beliefs, ideologies and other subjective aspects of consciousness itself. This historic move seems essential to address the ‘global crisis of maturity’ – the need for a global order able to curtail climate change, energy shortages, WMD and other massive threats of our time.     

高危时代全球治理与多元主体参与模式的研究

人类社会正步入一个危机四伏的“高危时代”，这对传统的以家庭、国家为中心的危机治理提出了挑战。为了全面有效应对各种全球性、区域性的新型危机，提出了由国际组织、民族国家、非政府组织、企业、民众以及媒体等多元主体参与的全球治理模式。     

Scoping river basin management issues with participatory modelling: The Baixo Guadiana experience

This paper details the design and implementation of a participatory modelling process in the Baixo Guadiana River Basin, in Portugal. A group of stakeholders was involved in a causal mapping exercise that lead to the development of a shared view of the problems, pressures and impacts characterizing the river basin. A simulation model was also developed to support experimentation with alternative management scenarios for the area. The paper looks critically at the evaluation of the participatory modelling outcomes, both at the individual and group levels, discussing the role of this approach in supporting the scoping stages of river basin planning and management processes. On the downside, the unstable group composition seems to have hindered the chances of producing a higher impact in the functioning of the group, and subsequently the capacity to sustain the level of collaboration required to achieve the strategic river basin objectives established during the participatory modelling process. The paper discusses the issue of group stability as well as some options to overcome the limitations of unstable participant groups. The strengths of participatory modelling, as underlined by the Baixo Guadiana experience, include the flexibility to adapt the method to different contexts and participatory designs and the capacity to structure the active involvement of stakeholders, providing an open and shared language for collaborative policy design, fostering learning and knowledge integration.     

基于供应链视角的工程项目管理研究

首先对传统工程项目管理模式进行描述,发现了这种管理模式的两个固有缺陷:利益相关者之间的高度对立关系和高昂的交易成本。为解决这两个问题,供应链管理的思想需要被引入。结合供应链的理念,本文阐述了工程建设行业的特点,并提出了一种将其有效整合的管理模式,从整体上优化工程的建造环节,实现了利益相关者之间的多赢。     

An interdisciplinary approach to applied policy analysis

Applied policy analysis has become an acceptable research activity for professional political scientists to the benefit of both the discipline of political science and society. Despite its long history as a social science research activity and the current popularity and widespread interest in this kind of research, there is no commonly agreed to theory of and/or approach to applied policy analysis. This article describes an interdisciplinary team approach developed and applied by the Science and Public Policy Program at the University of Oklahoma during the past 8 years. The approach consists of four principal components or conceptual elements: a general conceptual framework for technology assessment (a particular kind of applied policy study), an interdisciplinary team, the active involvement of numerous outside experts and stakeholders, and an issue–systems policy analysis framework. The conclusion reached is that, while the pitfalls identified by critics of applied policy analysis should be treated seriously, applied policy analysis can contribute to the development of the discipline while benefiting society.