Gender in futures: A study of gender and feminist papers published in Futures, 1969-2009

This paper reviews and discusses papers related to women's studies, gender or feminist perspectives, published in the scientific journal Futures. The aim is to provide new understandings and remapping of futures studies by capturing how gender is created and understood in this field. The gender/feminist criticism of futures studies mainly relates to the field being male-dominated and male biased, which means that the future is seen as already colonised by men. When synthesising the insights from all 78 papers focusing on futures studies and feminism, gender or women, four conclusions are especially striking: (1) Women and non-Westerners are generally excluded from professional futures studies activities and so are feminist issues or issues of particular relevance for women. (2) Futures studies usually make no attempts to reveal underlying assumptions, i.e. often lack a critical and reflexive perspective, which is needed in order to add a critical feminist perspective and envision feminist futures. (3) Feminist futures are needed as a contrast to hegemonic male and Western technology-orientated futures. Feminist futures are diverse, but focus the well-being of all humans. (4) Futures studies often view women as victims, rather than as drivers for change, which means that their alternative futures are often ignored.     

Rethinking futures studies

The author traces the development of futures studies from the Second World war and considers its philosophical basis. Futures thinking is seen as vision; futurists have special responsibilities as they are part of the world they describe. Futures thinking is seen as a learning process.     

Do economic statistics contain information to predict stock indexes futures prices and returns? Evidence from Asian equity futures markets

This research examines the impact of local and international market factors on the pricing of stock indexes futures in East Asian countries. The purpose of this paper is to present a study of the significant factors that determine the major stock indexes futures’ prices of Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. This study first investigates the relationships between Hang Seng Index Futures, KLCI Futures, SiMSCI Futures, KOSPI Futures, Taiwan Exchange Index Futures and local interest rates, dividend yields, local exchange rates, overnight S&P500 index and a newly constructed index, Asian Tigers Malaysia Index (ATMI). 11 years historical data of stock indexes futures and the economic statistics are studied; 10 years in-sample data are used for testing and developing the pricing models, and 1 year out-of-sample data is used for the purpose of verifying the predicted values of the stock indexes futures. Using simple linear regressions, local interest rates, dividend yields, exchange rates, overnight S&P500 and ATMI are found to have significant impact on these futures contracts. In this research, the next period close is predicted using simple linear regression and non-linear artificial neural network (ANN). An examination of the prediction results using nonlinear autoregressive ANN with exogenous inputs (NARX) shows significant abnormal returns above the passive threshold buy and hold market returns and also above the profits of simple linear regression (SLR). The empirical evidence of this research suggests that economic statistics contain information which can be extracted using a hybrid SLR and NARX trading model to predict futures prices with some degree of confidence for a year forward. This justifies further research and development of pricing models using fundamentally significant economic determinants to predict futures prices.

     

Futures studies and public decision in Sweden

Futures studies are a decisive part of the public decision process in Sweden, where they appeared after World War II and gained momentum from the 1970s on.Based on a series of interviews conducted in Stockholm in December 2003, this paper presents the main players involved in futures studies in Sweden. It focuses especially on the activities of the Institute for Futures Studies, and that of the Lindbeck Commission on the Future of Sweden, which was a resounding success.The paper gives a detailed account of the interplay between this various actors. There is a strong independence between the public decision making system and the producers of futures studies. Nevertheless, futures studies prove an important instrument for public policy in Sweden, as they raise awareness in the public debate, serve as a tool for consultation, and help define scientific and technological priorities.     

Reclaiming the future : Futures studies in Africa

This article considers the status of futures studies and research in Africa. Compared to the position two decades ago, African planning services today represent a real achievement, and can act as the basis for advanced public policy analysis. Futures studies in Africa can act to stimulate and extend the national planning function, and also provide a unified approach at the regional and continental levels. Futures studies can never be value-free—Africans embarking on futures studies must first rediscover their past and assert their present before they are able to ‘reclaim their future’.     

论期货公司业务创新空间

本文在<期货交易管理条例>的法律框架内,从两个方面对我国期货公司的业务创新机遇进行分析:一是在现行金融市场和期货监管制度下期货公司的业务创新空间,二是在<期货交易管理条例>规制内,期货业务的制度创新空间.本文认为,在法规允许范嗣内积极开展与银行、信托公司、券商等金融机构的业务合作,是期货业务创新的现实突破口;以制度创新推动期货公司的业务创新,逐步扩大期货公司在境外期货、期货投资咨询与顾问、期货公司受托理财、期货交易顾问与期货基金等业务以及自有资本使用范围等方面的行政许可范围,将能真正打开期货公司业务创新的新天地.     

Futures studies and management development

Futures studies can make significant contributions to management by improving background information, stimulating new ways of thinking and providing decision inputs. Professor Dror shows how good futures studies, replacing the criterion of subjective certainty by that of objective uncertainty, pinpoint changes in management needed for long-term planning.     

Solving the futures challenge - all you need is a 3LA

In this article, the author responds to a number of claims regarding the Integral Operating System, Causal Layered Analysis and the field of Futures. In particular, the author takes aim at those who claim that the reason the futures field has been lacking in influencing change towards more positive world is the result of not having an effective tool kit. To the contrary, the author suggests that the Futures community's failure at changing the existing ‘market driven paradigm’ has more to do with “… an unwillingness to get our hands dirty and to play in the same sandbox as our clients.” To that end the author targets in particular, a piece suggesting that making the Causal Layered Analysis more complex, exclusionary and ‘new and improved’ is the best way to make inroads into the economic liberalism model now in control. In counterpoint the author suggests that not only is this a flawed approach, it is unlikely to assist those with greatest need - the wider Futures Community.     

中国饲料工业期货的价格发现实证研究

本文借助向量自回归模型、协整检验、误差修正模型、方差分解、脉冲响应函数等方法,以中国唯一的饲料工业期货———大连商品交易所豆粕期货品种为例,研究了期货价格与现货价格之间的动态关系,定量刻画了期货市场在价格发现中的作用。研究结果显示:豆粕期货价格与现货价格存在相互引导关系,并且期货与现货价格之间存在长期均衡关系,对豆粕期货来说,期货市场在价格发现功能中起到主导作用。     

With both feet planted firmly in mid-air: Reflections on thinking about the future

This article reflects on over two decades of one individual's thinking about the future. Of central concern are the epistemological problems raised by futures studies and the role of the values and beliefs of both the producers and consumers (as well as anti-consumers) of futures studies. Increasingly Professor Michael has come to be concerned with the functions futures studies perform rather than the undertaking itself. Futures studies are seen essentially as storytelling-and various methodological injunctions and morals flow from this view.     

Futures studies and the policy sciences

Part of the current evaluation of the work of the Swedish Secretariat for Futures Studies focuses on the practicality and legitimacy of futures studies in relation to the policy sciences. Two crucial issues are focused on, first the justification and relevance of futures studies methodological approaches and their rigorous application to areas of public policy importance and second, the measures by which futures studies can be evaluated in the light of different time frames. Although there are differences between the policy sciences and futures studies approaches which require further analysis, there nevertheless is a symbiotic relationship between the two. The legitimacy of futures studies as a relevant public policy exercise should not be at issue.     

Networks and the future: A new methodological approach to envision and create the network society of tomorrow

This paper aims to illustrate how the combination of Network Analysis and Futures Studies becomes a powerful instrument for envisioning and analyzing futures and social change. The study of three cases shows network analysis becoming an analytical tool in futures studies while, at the same time, acquiring the dimension of change and dynamics steaming from the futurist perspective.     

Futures research and global change

Futures research must be carried out on the basis of people having the right to choose their own future. There is thus a need, particularly in the developing countries, for the spread of training in futures to those who will themselves be shaping their own future, and this places responsibilities on futures specialists in the developed North. The global value changes underway must also be confronted if futures research is to retain its relevance. A ‘project approach’ is preferred, which embraces both extrapolative and normative futures methodologies.     

Futures studies: From individual to social capacity

Futures study is not yet well established at the social level. Given the unstable conditions of the late 20th century, and the challenging outlook of the early 21st, this is a serious oversight. The article considers how futures studies can be progressively developed through five distinct layers, or levels. First is the natural capacity of the human brain/mind system to envisage a range of futures. Second, is the clarifying, enlivening and motivating role of futures concepts and ideas. Third are analytic gains provided by futures tools and methods. Fourth are a range of practical and intellectual applications, or contexts. When each of these levels functions in a coordinated way, grounds for the emergence of futures studies at the social level can clearly be seen. The article concludes with a brief summary of a preferred future which would arguably be within reach if futures studies were to progress along such a path from individual to social capacity.     

Differences in the Cost of Trade Execution Services on Floor-Based and Electronic Futures Markets

This paper provides new evidence on the impact of electronic trading on brokerage commissions by investigating a sample period that covers the period of transition from floor to electronic trading on the Sydney Futures Exchange. After controlling for liquidity, volatility and broker identity, the introduction of electronic trading remains to be associated with lower brokerage commissions relative to floor markets. The study also provides new evidence on brokerage commissions in futures markets finding that commission fees charged on futures trades average 0.002% of transaction value. This is up to 120 times smaller than the magnitude of brokerage fees charged in stock markets, and considerably lower than the magnitude of brokerage fees assumed for futures markets in previous research. Consistent with existing studies based on stock markets, commissions charged per contract decrease with order size reflecting economies of scale in the provision of brokerage services in futures markets. Commission rates are positively related to bid-ask spreads and price volatility, which proxy for the probability of execution error costs and execution difficulty, respectively. Finally, the identity of the broker is found to be a significant determinant of commissions reflecting different pricing schedules across brokers.     

Design futures in action: Documenting experiential futures for participatory audiences

The futures field demonstrates a willing openness in embracing methodologies, approaches, and influences from a diversity of disciplines and perspectives. This plurality of practice is evidenced in a growing body of work that increasingly embodies futures thinking in the design of everyday material and networked experiences. The intersection of design and futures produces artifacts, applications and interactions created to provoke dialog in an accessible manner. As part of the Futures special issue on the Emerge: Artists and Scientists Redesign the Future event, this article describes the documentation and public representation of the creative outcomes from nine Emerge design futures workshops. These workshops provided a rich opportunity to study how designers and futurists collaboratively engage, implement and communicate alternative futures. The goal of the documentation effort described is to capture the experience of creating experiential futures and extend the capacity for developing social foresight through a participatory exhibit and online social platform.     

Extending the perimeter of reflexive debate on futures research: An open framework

Theoretical and methodological crossover between the field of Futures Studies and environmental research has proven instrumental in understanding environmental long-term dynamics. However, the scale taken today by studies and research on such dynamics creates a new challenge for futurists and environmental scientists, as many set patterns of thought or research in both communities will have to be re-examined. For futurists, it will be necessary to go beyond attempts to standardize Futures Studies methods. The alternative is to promote theoretical and methodological reflexion within the rapidly expanding life-size (and not workshop size) fora of scholarly and policy debate. It will also mean overcoming the regime of metonymical hustle whereby once and again, a new school of thought tries to redefine the entire field and reduce it to its own purpose, concepts and toolkit. This paper proposes an “open” framework as a guide for each study on futures to make explicit the specific and fundamental choices it rests on. It is meant as an invitation to step back and consider new beginnings in a workspace open to the widest possible diversity and scale of approaches, as will be necessary if studies on futures are to rise to the challenges of research for sustainable development.     

Creativity, skepticism, and visioning the future

Members of the World Futures Studies Federation share not only the usual professional goals of advancing and developing their field, but also an extraordinary commitment to envisioning and creating a future world of increasing human freedom and well-being. Both aims, obviously, would be moved forward if futurists could establish more futures studies courses, departments, and research centers than now exist at colleges and universities. To do so requires vigor, creativity, and élan, which futurists seem to have in abundance, but it also demands more logical and empirical rigor, skepticism, and critical capacity in futures work.     

A systemic evaluation framework for futures research

Evaluation of futures studies is a topic that has frequently aroused discussion. Futures studies often deal with great societal or strategic business issues, and thus the validity and reliability of the results is of great interest to stakeholders. Existing literature contains discussions of such important issues as ethics of futures studies, the nature of knowledge about the future, and futures methodology, which together contribute to the quality, validity and credibility of futures studies, but discussion on the evaluation of futures studies is more scant.Thus, the main research question that guides our study is: “how should we evaluate futures studies to ensure the reliability and credibility of the results?” We answer the question by deriving a systemic framework for evaluation following the input-process-output schema to ensure that the whole chain from the data to reporting and implementation contributes to the quality and impact of the study.The main contribution is the systemic evaluation framework. The framework will contribute to the evaluation of existing and ongoing studies by offering guidelines for evaluation, and as a net effect, we propose, it will increase the impact of futures studies by making the practices more transparent and thus generating more confidence in the results.