券商借助期货公司参与股指期货业务路径研究

股指期货业务可以给市场中介机构带来丰厚佣金收益.期货公司依据<期货管理条例>和<期货交易管理条例>,为投资人提供服务、收取佣金水到渠成,但券商却受<条例>制约而无法直接参与其中.券商如欲在股指期货业务上有所突破,就必须绕过政策壁垒,在遵守<条例>规定的前提下,结合自身特点,灵活选择与期货公司的联姻方式,借助期货公司这一平台间接分享金融衍生产品市场的佣金收益,实现可持续发展.     

股指期货如何影响股市投资

今年以来,期货市场制度建设取得了重要进展。继国务院于3月16日颁布《期货交易管理条例》后,中国证监会于4月份先后出台了《期货交易所管理办法》、《期货公司管理办法》、《期货公司金融期货结算业务试行办法》、《证券公司为期货公司提供中间介绍业务试行办法》及《期货公司风险监管指标管理试行办法》等一系列配套规章。     

商品期货市场对外开放的国际比较与经验借鉴

我国大宗商品现货贸易与期货交易规模位居世界前列,但我国商品期货市场对外开放进程滞后于其他国家。本文梳理了美国、日本、印度、俄罗斯商品期货市场对外开放的经验教训。在期货合约方面,四国均实现了期货交易双向开放,美国、印度及俄罗斯推出了跨境交叉挂牌业务。在期货公司方面,美国期货公司通过金融资本与产业资本结合的方式对外扩张,日本后期境内外期货制度对接抑制了本土期货公司的活力。在期货交易所方面,美国与印度的期货交易所均有国际化持股实践。本研究建议我国试点商品期货跨境交叉上市,加快商品期货合约国际化进程;加强跨境监管合作,谨防境内外制度对接风险;推进“期现联动”业务发展,培育全能型期货公司与贸易商;推进期货交易所跨境持股,提升话语权;布局海外交割库,试点商品期货交叉挂牌等业务。     

股指期货交易风险与监管:国际比较及启示

股指期货交易作为我国资本市场的一项重要金融创新,也是我国金融衍生市场的开闸之举,它的顺利实施对我国资本市场的基础制度创新具有重要的现实意义。应通过完善期货市场立法,确定市场进入与会员管理制度,设计股指期货合约,建立期货公司内控制制,加强监管协调等方面,建设和完善股指期货交易风险监管制度。     

浅谈我国期货公司的跨国之路

我国期货行业正处于高速发展期,商品期货成交量已连续三年居全球首位,成为仅次于美国的全球第二大商品期货市场。除已上市的商品期货与股指期货外,国债期货、期权等金融衍生品也正处于研发之中;此外如投资咨询、资产管理等业务的开展,期货公司也开始了综合业务创新阶段。然而从内在竞争力来看,与银行等实力雄厚的大型金融机构不同,国内期货公司资产少、业务范围有限、盈利模式单一、专业人才稀缺、从业经验以及业务范围仍处于初级阶段。从这些方面来看,国内期货公司很难拓展海外业务、吸引境外投资者、甚至与国际同行展开竞争。本文通过阐述当前我国期货公司的发展现状,并对国外优秀期货公司的成功经验进行分析总结,试图探索出一条符合我国国情的中国期货公司的跨国之路。     

期货投资咨询业务如何才能“食之有味”

期货投资咨询业务的推出,市场及业内都赋予了良好的预期,但推出后的冷清态势让这项新业务似乎变成了"鸡肋",期货公司将免费的服务强行定价,无疑会影响原有传统经纪业务的开展和运行,探索创新盈利模式势在必行,从传统服务中细分和借鉴非期货公司金融机构业务开展成功经验,均可以破除目前的尴尬境地,为期货公司创造新的盈利点,如开展有偿个性化投资者教育、开创"私人期货顾问"业务、促进同业合作服务探索、开发程序化交易软件、打造品牌投资咨询团队以推动项目合作等等。但是,期货投资咨询创新业务的开展对期货公司自身的人才储备和资源整合能力是重大的考验,创新业务是否能可持续发展并稳定盈利,还有待市场的检验。     

股指期货渐行渐近

3月16日,国务院颁布了修订后的《期货管理条例》,新条例将规范的内容由商品期货扩展到金融期货和期权交易,删除了原条例中金融机构不得从事期货交易、不得为期货交易融资和提供担保的禁止性规定,股指期货的法律障碍正式扫除;3月30日,中国证监会发布《期货公司管理办法》和《期货交易所管理办法》征求意见稿; 6月27日,中国金融交易所发布《交易规则》.     

如何界定内幕信息的范围及其特征

近来,证监会等五部委在<关于依法打击和防控资本市场内幕交易的意见>中提出,要抓紧制定涉及上市公司内幕信息的保密制度,明确内幕信息范围、流转程序、保密措施和责任追究要求.这一意见,涉及到如何认定内幕交易罪中的内幕信息的范围和特征.<证券法>第75条和<期货交易管理条例>第85条对于证券、期货内幕信息的含义和范围予以了明确的规定.笔者认为,内幕信息具有秘密性和重要性两个基本特征.     

期货交易中强行平仓法律制度分析

期货交易中强行平仓法律制度一直饱受争议,笔者从期货交易的法律本质为附担保的买卖出发,以一种全新的角度对强行平仓制度进行了分析,明确了强行平仓是期货交易所以及期货公司的义务这一观点.     

期货经纪公司审计中应重点关注的事项

期货经纪公司会计核算和审计的依据期货经纪公司目前实行会计核算的依据主要包括《期货经纪公司商品期货业务会计处理暂行规定》(财会字［2000］19号)与《商品期货交易财务管理暂行规定》(财商字［1997］44号)。财政部2001年底发布了《金融企业会计制度》，该制度中已将期货公司其他业务的核算纳入其中。审计方面的依据包括中国证监会颁布的《关于对〈期货经纪公司年度报告参考内容与格式〉作出部分调整的通知》(证监期货字［2002］9号)、《关于做好期货经纪公司年度审计和报告工作的通知》(证监会计字［2000］3号)以及中国证监会期货部组织…     

Some reflections on the high expectations as formulated in the Internet Bubble era

Since the breakthrough of the Internet to the broader public in the 1990s, expectations of the converging information technology, telecommunication and media industries and technologies as a catalyst for economic growth and social welfare have been high. Futures scientists were involved in predicting the future of these technologies during the Internet bubble. In this paper, we use a meta-analysis approach to examine how well futures studies have been able to describe future reality. We limit our studies to futures research in the ICT and Internet domain that were published between 1995 and 2000. Because the number of relevant studies can hardly be called impressive, we selected a number of available futures studies that were conducted by official government bodies and individual companies, based on various approaches, ranging from technology forecasts [1] to highly creative visions [2], and from predictions [2] to essays [4]. These studies were carried out by Dutch as well as by international organizations. Based on a framework we developed for the analysis of business models, we wanted to see whether technological drivers, regulatory/policy issues and market development as well as competitive behavior, on the input side, and the way value for customers and providers is provided, on the output side, were discussed. Our analysis made it clear that, looking back with what we know now about business models, futures studies and recently developed tools like road mapping, developments in futures studies have made tremendous progress since the Internet Bubble. However, here is still room for more rigor when it comes to methodology and reporting. More recently, there has been a promising integration of scenario analysis and business model approaches that opens new avenues for futures studies.     

Share price volatility with the introduction of individual share futures on the Sydney Futures Exchange

This paper examines a recent innovation in financial derivative securities—individual share futures contracts traded on the Sydney Futures Exchange. We investigate changes in the volatility of the underlying shares in the cash market using an asymmetric exponential ARCH model. The overall evidence suggests that the introduction of futures trading has had very little impact on cash market volatility. Trade in the futures market has less of an effect on cash market volatility than cash market trading for most shares.     

Corporate foresight and innovation management: A portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development

The transition from a traditional industry-driven economy to a knowledge-based economy requires new concepts and methods for companies to sustain competitive advantage. Here, academia has identified corporate foresight and innovation as key success factors. While, content-wise, the contribution of futures research methods to the innovation process has already been researched, this study strives to explore the status quo of organizational development stages of both concepts. To do so, we developed a portfolio-approach, the so-called ‘Future-Fitness-Portfolio’, which enables companies to qualitatively compare amongst others and identify organizational improvement potential. In addition, we conducted expert interviews to explore future organizational development trends in corporate foresight and innovation management. As our research revealed, five strategic clusters can be identified within the portfolio. Consequently, we propose specific strategies for each individual cluster. We conclude that there will be two main organizational development trends for corporate foresight and innovation management in the future: in traditional industries with conventional business models and long product-life-cycles, companies will follow a different development path than companies in dynamic industries with innovative business models and short product-life-cycles.     

Making futures research useful: The practitioner's opportunity

Futures research has a vital and practical contribution to make to the business world, to the improvement of marketing strategy. However, futures researchers need to have increased experience in a business environment to be fully aware of the multiplicity of factors to be considered in formulating a plan for marketing strategy and forecasting business events. Ultimately the futurists' greatest contribution is not one of accurate prediction but of orchestration and coordination of ideas from disparate sources.     

Tax credit rating and corporate innovation decisions

The tax credit rating mechanism was formally implemented in 2014. As an important tax collection and management innovation, it has attracted the attention of regulatory authorities and scholars. Different from the literature that directly examines corporate tax compliance, we focus on the impact of tax credit rating implementation on corporate research and development (R&D) investment decisions. Using listed companies’ data from 2014 to 2019, we find that companies with higher tax credit ratings invest more in innovation, because the system helps managers identify R&D opportunities, alleviates corporate financing constraints and reduces agency costs. We confirm that tax credit ratings have manifold impacts on corporate information environments and business decisions, with better ratings positively affecting firms’ business decisions. This discovery can inform tax policy reform, encourage corporate innovation and construct social credit systems.     

Imagination workshops: An empirical exploration of SFP for technology-based business innovation

This article explores the potential use of Science Fiction Prototypes (SFPs) as a vehicle to promote creative thinking and innovation in the business and technology development process. In particular, the paper describes a tool, “The Imagination Workshop”, which business people can use to drive near and far term product innovation, futuristic business and entrepreneurship. A key contribution of this article is the use of a modified evolutionary model of the Science Fiction Prototyping creation process (cyclic SFP), which, instead of being linear process (as in earlier approaches), is based around a set of feedback loops in the form of an iterative evolutionary co-creative process. In addition, the paper describes how the SFP methodology has been applied to business innovation and entrepreneurship in two small UK companies. Finally, it reflects on the strengths and weaknesses of these methods from a business perspective.     

中国饲料工业期货的价格发现实证研究

本文借助向量自回归模型、协整检验、误差修正模型、方差分解、脉冲响应函数等方法,以中国唯一的饲料工业期货———大连商品交易所豆粕期货品种为例,研究了期货价格与现货价格之间的动态关系,定量刻画了期货市场在价格发现中的作用。研究结果显示:豆粕期货价格与现货价格存在相互引导关系,并且期货与现货价格之间存在长期均衡关系,对豆粕期货来说,期货市场在价格发现功能中起到主导作用。     

Do economic statistics contain information to predict stock indexes futures prices and returns? Evidence from Asian equity futures markets

This research examines the impact of local and international market factors on the pricing of stock indexes futures in East Asian countries. The purpose of this paper is to present a study of the significant factors that determine the major stock indexes futures’ prices of Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. This study first investigates the relationships between Hang Seng Index Futures, KLCI Futures, SiMSCI Futures, KOSPI Futures, Taiwan Exchange Index Futures and local interest rates, dividend yields, local exchange rates, overnight S&P500 index and a newly constructed index, Asian Tigers Malaysia Index (ATMI). 11 years historical data of stock indexes futures and the economic statistics are studied; 10 years in-sample data are used for testing and developing the pricing models, and 1 year out-of-sample data is used for the purpose of verifying the predicted values of the stock indexes futures. Using simple linear regressions, local interest rates, dividend yields, exchange rates, overnight S&P500 and ATMI are found to have significant impact on these futures contracts. In this research, the next period close is predicted using simple linear regression and non-linear artificial neural network (ANN). An examination of the prediction results using nonlinear autoregressive ANN with exogenous inputs (NARX) shows significant abnormal returns above the passive threshold buy and hold market returns and also above the profits of simple linear regression (SLR). The empirical evidence of this research suggests that economic statistics contain information which can be extracted using a hybrid SLR and NARX trading model to predict futures prices with some degree of confidence for a year forward. This justifies further research and development of pricing models using fundamentally significant economic determinants to predict futures prices.

     

Gender in futures: A study of gender and feminist papers published in Futures, 1969-2009

This paper reviews and discusses papers related to women's studies, gender or feminist perspectives, published in the scientific journal Futures. The aim is to provide new understandings and remapping of futures studies by capturing how gender is created and understood in this field. The gender/feminist criticism of futures studies mainly relates to the field being male-dominated and male biased, which means that the future is seen as already colonised by men. When synthesising the insights from all 78 papers focusing on futures studies and feminism, gender or women, four conclusions are especially striking: (1) Women and non-Westerners are generally excluded from professional futures studies activities and so are feminist issues or issues of particular relevance for women. (2) Futures studies usually make no attempts to reveal underlying assumptions, i.e. often lack a critical and reflexive perspective, which is needed in order to add a critical feminist perspective and envision feminist futures. (3) Feminist futures are needed as a contrast to hegemonic male and Western technology-orientated futures. Feminist futures are diverse, but focus the well-being of all humans. (4) Futures studies often view women as victims, rather than as drivers for change, which means that their alternative futures are often ignored.