Natural resource extraction and civil conflict

Based on evidence linking natural resources to civil conflict, this paper studies two armed groups fighting to control a resource and possibly a second prize. Labor is used in the agricultural, resource extraction and conflict sectors, and the groups also buy a capital input to conflict subject to the constraint that capital spending cannot exceed resource earnings. I find that exogenous shocks can have different effects on conflict intensity depending on whether the credit constraint binds. In particular, international policies to ban natural resource exports from conflict zones (e.g. ‘blood diamonds’), raise agricultural productivity or limit the import of weapons will limit conflict intensity if the credit constraint binds. However, if the credit constraint does not bind, then the first two policies promote conflict, and so could even the third policy. The results therefore suggest some caution in international policymaking.     

International knowledge spillovers in the wind power industry: evidence from the European Union

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the presence of international knowledge spillovers in the wind power sector. Specifically, the paper investigates whether successful invention efforts in one country, measured by way of granted wind power patent counts, have had positive effects on the neighboring countries’ abilities to generate patents of the same category. Data on the number of patents granted at the European Patent Office during the period 1978–2008 are used for the eight national technological leaders in the western European wind power sector. The few comprehensive wind power studies that exist have only found limited evidence of international knowledge spillovers. However, in this paper, we find that international spillovers are statistically significant determinants of a country’s wind power patenting outcomes. Geographical distance is also taken into consideration, and the knowledge spillover effects are shown to become stronger with decreases in this distance. The results should have important policy implications, for example, for a national government when it comes to applying an investment strategy in wind power or, alternatively, free-riding on other countries’ invention efforts.     

On the origin of domestic and international terrorism

We analyze the determinants of the origin of domestic and international terrorism in a large panel data set of 159 countries spanning from 1970 to 2007. We show that terror increases with GDP per capita, a higher polity score measuring a more open and competitive political system and experiences of domestic conflict, anarchy and regime transitions. Our evidence thus contradicts the notion that terrorism is rooted in economic deprivation or that strongly autocratic regimes breed more terrorists. Rather we show that weak or failing states are an incubator for terrorism. We also show that the causes of domestic terror and international terror are similar.     

Financial market imperfections and home ownership: A comparative study

We explore the determinants of the distribution of owner occupancy rates across age groups using a collection of microeconomic data on 14 OECD countries. In most, the survey is repeated over time. This allows us to construct an international dataset, merging data on 39 national household surveys with aggregate data on down payment ratios. We find strong evidence that the availability of mortgage finance - as measured by down payment ratios - affects the distribution of owner occupancy rates across age groups, especially at the young end. The results are consistent with previous theoretical models and have important implications for the debate on the relation between saving and growth.     

What factors determine the outsourcing intensity? A dynamic panel data approach for manufacturing industries

The present article investigates the determinants of outsourcing production using a panel of 93 Spanish manufacturing industries for the period 1993 to 2002. Outsourcing is measured as production tasks which are contracting out to external suppliers, a more direct and suitable indicator. After controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and simultaneity, our results show a high persistence of the outsourcing intensity. Moreover, outsourcing of production is positively related to unit labour costs, skills requirements, national ownership and orientation to international markets. We also find evidence for a negative link between the outsourcing intensity and the share of small firms.     

Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration

We examine natural disasters and long‐run climatic factors as potential determinants of international migration, implementing a panel dataset of bilateral migration flows from 1960 to 2000. We find no direct effect of long‐run climatic factors on international migration across our entire sample. These results are robust when conditioning on origin‐country characteristics, when considering migrants returning home, and when accounting for the potential endogeneity of migrant networks. Rather, we find evidence of indirect effects of environmental factors operating through wages. We find that epidemics and miscellaneous incidents spur international migration, and there is strong evidence that natural disasters beget greater flows of migrants to urban environs.     

A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis of International Reserves

Using data from more than 100 economies for the period of 1975 to 2005, we conduct an extensive empirical analysis of the determinants of international reserve holdings. Four groups of determinants, namely, traditional macro variables, financial variables, institutional variables, and dummy variables that control for individual economies’ characteristics are considered. We find that the relationship between international reserves and their determinants is significantly different between developed and developing economies and is not stable over time. The estimation results indicate that, especially during the recent period, a developed economy tends to hold a lower level of international reserves than a developing one. Furthermore, there is only limited evidence that East Asian economies including China and Japan are accumulating an excessive amount of international reserves.     

Manufacturing Wage Differentials and Employment in Some Scandinavian Countries, the U.S. and the U.K.: An Analysis of Variance Approach

This paper presents some empirical evidence on the factors determining changes in wage differentials between skilled and unskilled workers and in their employment. An ``analysis of variance' (ANOVA) model is estimated using UN data for five OECD countries in order to assess the relative importance of industry-specific, country-specific and international shocks (as well as interactions between industry and country effects). It is found that both international shocks and national policies affect wage differentials over the whole sample, whilst skill-biased technical change (SBTC) was a significant factor in the seventies. Employment responds mainly to international shocks, although national policies and SBTC were important determinants in the seventies and eighties respectively. Some of the results are found to be sensitive to the technology level of the industries considered.     

The OECD Anti-Bribery Convention: Changing the currents of trade

This paper examines how criminalizing the act of bribing a foreign public official affects international trade flows using a watershed global anti-corruption initiative — the 1997 OECD Anti-Bribery Convention. I exploit variation in the timing of implementation by exporting countries and in the level of corruption of importing countries to quantify the Convention's effects on bilateral exports. I use a large panel of country pairs to control for confounding global and national trends and shocks. I find that, on average, the Convention caused a reduction in exports from signatory countries to high corruption importers relative to low corruption importers. In particular, we observe a 5.7% relative decline in bilateral exports to importers that lie one standard deviation lower on the Worldwide Governance Indicators corruption index. This suggests that by creating large penalties for foreign bribery, the Convention indirectly increased transaction costs between signatory countries and high corruption importers. The Convention may have induced OECD firms to divert their exports to less corrupt countries; while non-OECD firms not bound by the Convention may have increased their exports to corrupt countries. I also find evidence that the Convention's effects differed across product categories.     

Democracy in the neighborhood and foreign direct investment

The determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) have been extensively studied. Even though there is extensive research in the area, most of it is based on analyzing the effects of host country characteristics on FDI flows, and yet there is little research on how neighboring country characteristics play a role in facilitating FDI flows to host countries. This paper analyzes the association between the democracy level in neighboring countries and FDI flows to host countries. Using bilateral FDI flows from the OECD countries, with a large host country sample, we find that countries surrounded by democratic countries attract higher FDI flows. Furthermore, we find evidence that countries that are surrounded by neighboring countries with good institutions tend themselves to have better institutions, experience lower civil conflict, and have higher political stability and hence indirectly attract higher FDI flows. Our findings suggest that if neighboring countries act in such way as to become more democratic, FDI flows to these countries would be higher since not only does improving the quality of democracy attract more FDI inflows, but also being surrounded by neighboring advanced democratic countries will also lead to higher FDI flows to them.     

The deregulation of international trucking in the European Union: form and effect

We describe the regulatory regime under which international trucking operated in Western Europe until the mid-1980s, the deregulatory process that followed, and the effect of this deregulation. We find that deregulation had a large positive effect on the growth of international trucking. We also find that shippers shifted toward more outsourcing of their trucking needs, but this occurred to an even greater extent in local and national road transport. We conclude that other factors beside the deregulation of international trucking affected the organization of the industry at the time. Finally, despite concerns voiced by member countries, we find no evidence that deregulation disproportionately favored carriers of countries that were initially more (or less) involved in international trucking, nor that it has favored low-wage countries.      

Currency unions and trade: the effect is large

The impact of a common currency on trade can be grossly mismeasured if countries that belong to currency unions are systematically different from those that do not, and if the relationship between trade and its observable determinants is complex. I argue that such complications are plausible and likely to distort the empirical results of a recent Economic Policy paper by Andrew Rose (Issue 30, 2000: pp. 7–45). Using techniques designed to be robust in this situation, I find that the effects of common currency on international trade are considerably less dramatic and much less precisely estimated.
I have always maintained that the measured effect of a single currency on trade appears implausibly large, but I am not convinced by Torsten Persson's diagnosis and proposed solution. I apply a variety of estimation techniques to a new larger data set, where many more instances of currency union creation and abandonment make it possible to rely on time–series as well as cross–sectional evidence. The results are similar to my earlier ones: the effect of a single currency on trade is large.     

Droughts,conflict, and the African slave trade

Historians have frequently suggested that droughts helped facilitate the African slave trade. By introducing a previously unused dataset on 19th century rainfall levels in Africa, I provide the first empirical examination of this hypothesis. I find a strong negative relationship between rainfall shocks and the number of slaves exported from a given region. I also find that extreme temperature shocks in either direction increase slave exports. Building on the detailed qualitative work of Dias (1981), Miller (1982), and others, I provide quantitative evidence for interethnic group conflict and more localized forms of violence being likely mechanisms through which these additional slaves were acquired. These results contribute to our understanding of the underlying economic conditions of the African slave trade.     

Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?

The impact of a common currency on trade can be grossly mismeasured if countries that belong to currency unions are systematically different from those that do not, and if the relationship between trade and its observable determinants is complex. I argue that such complications are plausible and likely to distort the empirical results of a recent Economic Policy paper by Andrew Rose (Issue 30, 2000: pp. 7–45). Using techniques designed to be robust in this situation, I find that the effects of common currency on international trade are considerably less dramatic and much less precisely estimated.
I have always maintained that the measured effect of a single currency on trade appears implausibly large, but I am not convinced by Torsten Persson's diagnosis and proposed solution. I apply a variety of estimation techniques to a new larger data set, where many more instances of currency union creation and abandonment make it possible to rely on time–series as well as cross–sectional evidence. The results are similar to my earlier ones: the effect of a single currency on trade is large.     

A New Kind of Arctic Power? Russia's Policy Discourses and Diplomatic Practices in the Circumpolar North

The aim of this article is to examine what the geopolitics of the Arctic look like as seen from the largest Arctic state. How are narratives about the development of the region received, reworked and produced in a Russian context? We find that Russian policy actors distance themselves from discourses of Arctic conflict and geopolitical competition, and examine how this approach may serve some of Russia's key interests in the region. We further argue that the key tension in the Arctic region is not along the conflict/cooperation axis, but rather lies in the tricky process of delineating between international cooperation and national sovereignty in tackling Arctic problems. In attempting to illustrate the various voices, ideas and interests that shape Russia's policy understanding of the Arctic and its challenges and opportunities, we draw upon a media analysis and a set of qualitative interviews with representatives of the five Arctic states.     

Teacher moonlighting: evidence from the US Current Population Survey

This article reports new evidence on teacher moonlighting from the US Current Population Survey. I investigate the determinants of teacher moonlighting and examine the effect that the teacher moonlighting has on the number of hours teachers spend on their primary job. I find that male teachers and teachers with advanced degrees are more likely to moonlight, but teacher pay appears to have little or no effect on the propensity to moonlight. I also find that holding a second job reduces the amount of time teachers spend on their primary jobs by about 1?h per week. Thus, teacher moonlighting may have harmful effects on education, though the effect on hours worked is neither trivial nor especially large.     

虱家足球成绩影响因素的实证研究

以男子足球队在国际足联的积分作为国际足球比赛成绩的衡量，从宏观层面对影响国家足球成绩的因素进行了实证分析。研究发现，国家足球成绩受经济、人口、地理、社会等多方面影响，经济发展水平与足球成绩呈倒u型关系。良好的青少年培训是国家足球取得优异成绩的基础保证，而主办世界杯对国家足球成绩并无明显益处。     

EU membership,institutions and growth: The case of Turkey

This paper investigates the institutions-growth relationship during the EU membership process in Turkey. The membership process is considered as a supranational anchor to further improving institutional quality. I examine effects of individual components of institutions on economic growth. I find significant evidence that institutions matter for growth. Specifically, law and order and bureaucratic quality and management of internal conflict and ethnic tensions affect growth in Turkey.     

Exporters and the environment

This paper documents a relationship between international trade and environmental performance at the plant level. Using a panel of establishment‐level data from 1990–2006, I estimate the relationship between export orientation, import competition and pollution emissions. I find a robust relationship between international trade and pollution levels. Exporters emit 9% to 13% less after controlling for output, but there is significant heterogeneity across industries. Import competition is associated with the exit of the smallest, most pollution‐intensive plants. There is no evidence that this result is caused by polluting firms relocating to countries with low levels of environmental regulation and importing back into the US.     

从贸易摩擦到汇率系统的国家利益冲突

本文由国际贸易理论中存在的多童均衡引发的国家利益冲突从而引起世界各国在国际贸易中面临国家竞争战略的机制这一论点出发,以美日两国国家竞争战略的机制选择为例,阐明汇率系统的冲突已经成为当前世界各国国家利益冲突的主要形式.这一研究结论为中国国家竞争战略的选择和制定提供了一种思路.