China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment:The Role of Natural Resources and Technology

Using the data of China's OFDI in more than 150 host countries or regions for the period of 1991-2009, in this paper we examine the underlying motivations and locational determinants of China's OFDI, with a focus on the role of natural resources and technology. Our findings indicate that the host country's natural resource abundance, interacted with its institutional quality, is a crucial determinant of China's OFDI. There is strong evidence that in the recent period of 2003-2009, the host country's overall natural resource abundance, oil abundance and metal abundance had a sizable positive effect on China's OFDI. In particular, China's OFDI was driven to resource-abundant countries with poor institutional quality and governance, and this pattern was strongest for oil but not metal resources. However, we find little evidence supporting the resourceseeking motivation in the pre-2003 period. Furthermore, we find strong evidence for the technology-exploiting motivation but not for the technology-seeking hypothesis. We show that, when the host is a lowincome country, China's OFDI increases if the host country's technology is more backward, indicating that Chinese investors might be taking advantage of their technology gap relative to the local firms.     

国际技术势差、对外直接投资逆向技术溢出与本土企业技术进步

全球经济大变局背景下，中国“走出去”企业的全球优化布局对逆向技术溢出效应有效发挥至关重要。基于技术势差视角构建“走出去”企业与当地企业间的技术扩散吸收模型，探究OFDI逆向技术溢出的发生机理，并以2005—2019年78个经济体为样本，对理论命题进行验证。结果发现，中国OFDI能够对本土企业技术进步产生逆向技术溢出效应，但存在时滞性和阈值效应：当国际技术势差过大时，“走出去”企业难以通过技术扩散获取新技术，无法实现对国内企业的技术反哺；只有当中国与东道国的TFP比值处于合理区间时，才存在显著逆向技术溢出效应。此外，加快技术积累和其它渠道的国际技术溢出也是推动本土企业技术进步的重要途径。     

外商直接投资和经济增长的关系研究

理论研究普遍认为外商直接投资对经济增长产生了积极的影响,但对外商直接投资如何影响新兴工业化国家的发展过程的具体机制却研究甚少。本文从新兴工业化国家的视角提出并验证了有关外商直接投资对经济增长作用的两个假设:(1)外商直接投资有利于减小国内生产的非效率,是提高生产技术效率的推动器;(2)外商直接投资有利于加快国内技术进步,是生产前沿的移动器。因为这种双重作用,所以外商直接投资是新兴工业化国家赶超世界发达国家的一个重要因素。中国过去几十年经济快速的发展为验证这两个假设提供了一个理想的范例。     

利用外资与优化中国产业结构的辩证分析

外资对优化中国产业结构调有明显的正负效应。通过发挥资源补缺、传统产业转移、促进新兴产业成长、产业关联和辐射、海外投资收益等效应,一方面可带动投资国的产业结构调整和升级,另一方面又加剧了重合产业间的竞争,对中国的就业、国际收支平衡等方面带来负面效应,影响投资国的产业结构调整。有效地利用外资对优化中国产业结构、促进产业结构的优化升级有着重要意义。     

FDI对中国贸易收支影响的实证研究

改革开放以来,尤其是邓小平同志南巡讲话以来,外商在华直接投资迅猛发展。与此同时,中国对外贸易顺差也急剧增加。本文在具体分析FDI对东道国进出口影响的基础上,将FDI作为进出口的决定因素之一纳入到本文的实证模型中,通过对比FDI对进、出口的弹性探讨了FDI对中国贸易收支的影响。研究结论表明,外商在华直接投资促进了中国的出口,替代了中国的进口,从而导致了中国贸易顺差的快速增长,而且外商在华直接投资引致的贸易顺差具有持续性。如何统筹中国的对内对外经济关系,对于中国贯彻实施互利共赢的对外经济开放战略,实现对外贸易平衡,促进全球经济失衡调整,具有启示意义。     

The effects of economic freedom on FDI inflows: an empirical analysis

There is a regular emphasis on the significant role of inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in promoting economic growth. This favourable relationship has induced many governments to adopt policies intended to increase FDI inflows and, thereby, to create conducive business and economic conditions for Multinational Enterprises (MNEs). This paper examines the effects of Economic Freedom (EF) and its sub-components reflecting the Quality of Institutions (QIs) on FDI inflows, using indices derived from the Fraser Institute and from the Heritage Foundation. The empirical analysis is carried out for a panel dataset using different econometric methodologies and empirical specifications. The results underline positive effects of EF on FDI inflows. They reveal that EF sub-components have varying impacts on FDI inflows, where rule of law, market openness, and less-restrictive regulatory environment stand out as the major FDI-promoting institutional factors. Also, there is an empirical evidence that the effects of EF sub-components on FDI inflows exhibit variations through the economic characteristics of the host countries and across geo-economic regions. The results suggest that governments should pursue EF-improving policies, which should be tailored according to the economic and geo-economic characteristics of the host countries, to increase FDI inflows.     

新兴经济体FDI流入的决定因素及中国的应对策略

吸引FDI流入是新兴经济体促进经济发展的重要手段,但FDI活动深受东道国区位因素的广泛影响。利用1995-2009年的面板数据,对新兴经济体吸引FDI流入的决定因素进行实证分析,结果表明:FDI与东道国聚集效应、市场规模、基础设施、资源禀赋、经济开放度显著正相关,但与东道国人力资本和政治风险负相关。因此,中国应该强化FDI的区域聚集效应、行业聚集效应和特定投资来源地聚集效应,保持经济稳定、持续的增长,加大对落后地区的基础设施建设的投入,构建全方位的对外开放体系和引资战略,实现经济持续快速发展。     

FDI与OFDI溢出对高技术产业区域创新的门槛效应研究

选取2003-2016年省域高技术产业面板数据，以R&D人员投入为门槛变量，实证分析FDI与OFDI溢出对高技术产业区域创新的非线性影响。得出以下稳健性结论：FDI和OFDI溢出对高技术产业区域创新具有双门槛效应，FDI溢出呈现先升后降的特征，而OFDI溢出则呈现先降后升特征；R&D人员投入、R&D资本积累、城镇化水平有利于高技术产业区域创新，而金融成熟度未产生明显推动作用；政府支持可能对R&D人力投入较高省份产生抑制作用；2003-2016年跨越R&D人员投入中、高门槛的省份在不断增加。     

外商直接投资、对外贸易与环境污染的实证研究

文章通过中国30个省(市、区)2000-2005年面板数据,对FDI与外贸的环境污染效应进行了实证分析.对外贸易与FDI整体上都促进了中国经济增长,其中,进口对经济增长的作用较小;出口与FDI加剧了中国环境污染;进口贸易可抑制环境污染,但作用比较小;人力资本具有显著的促进经济增长与抑制环境污染的双重功能.本文的政策建议是,调整出口与引资政策,发展教育,促进人力资本积累.     

Foreign direct investment and vertical integration of production by Japanese multinationals in Thailand

We test the vertical model of foreign direct investment (FDI) empirically using firm level information on Japanese multinational activity in Thailand. These data allow us to investigate the effects of both home country (Japan) and host country (Thailand) characteristics on the inter-industry pattern of FDI. For 85 manufacturing industries over the period from 1985 to 1995, we find a positive influence of industry variation in skill intensity and market size in the host country and a negative effect of transport costs on the amount of FDI. These results provide strong direct econometric evidence of vertical integration of production across the countries. Journal of Comparative Economics 32 (4) (2004) 805–821.     

Does the quality of political institutions affect intra-industry trade within trade blocs? The ASEAN perspective

There has been a renewed resolve for deeper integration and cooperation within ASEAN. Intra-industry trade (IIT) is often viewed as a way of achieving economic as well as political integration. This article tests for the effect that political regime and governance may have on the intensity of IIT. We particularly examine if quality of political institutions which includes corruption and democracy indices as well as economic factors comprising corporate tax rate, regional FDI flow, flexibility of exchange rate regime, size of the market, economic distance affect the intensity of horizontal and vertical IIT. The study finds that control of corruption and good governance both increase the vertical IIT but not the horizontal IIT. The study further finds that intra-economy FDI flow, stable exchange rate regime, market size and proximity positively affect IIT within the trade bloc. However the negative effect of corporate tax rate suggests that if countries were to coordinate their tax policies, they could avoid harmful tax competition and promote IIT across their borders. The findings regarding the effect those economic and political factors have on the intensity of IIT certainly warrants the attention of policy makers and researchers alike.     

中国FDI区位分布的空间效应研究

目前关于我国FDI区位选择因素的大部分实证研究都是建立在双边框架内,考虑第三方效应并从城市角度进行的研究还少有涉及。本文在新近发展起来的"第三国效应"理论基础上,运用空间面板计量方法,对1985—2005年期间我国30个省市区的154个地级及以上城市的FDI区位分布的空间效应进行检验。发现全样本154个城市的FDI之间存在显著的空间效应,周边城市的FDI增量可以增加某城市的FDI流入量,周边城市的市场规模越大某城市的FDI流入越多,各城市的FDI流入也受到周边城市FDI不可测因素的影响。对三大地区内部、三大地区之间及长、珠三角与三大地区之间等不同子样本的FDI空间效应的检验,发现东、中、西部地区FDI的主导类型分别为集聚垂直复合型、受限的集聚垂直复合型和水平型。     

我国FDI和OFDI技术溢出效应的实证检验

对国内外有关国际直接投资渠道的技术溢出的研究文献进行了梳理,测算了1994—2008年我国以外商直接投资和对外直接投资反映的外国R&D资本存量,并建立了R&D溢出回归模型,对其进行回归分析。研究结果显示:国内R&D资本和外商直接投资对我国全要素生产率的提升具有促进作用,且国内R&D资本的作用更大;对外直接投资对我国全要素生产率的提升有微弱的阻碍作用。因此,在政策层面上应继续加大国内R&D支出,加强外商直接投资,积极开展对外直接投资,以推动我国技术进步。     

中国吸引FDI区位因素实证分析

近年来,随着国际资本流动的愈加频繁迅速,流向中国的外商直接投资越来越多,而FDI在中国经济增长中发挥着发动机的作用。东道国吸引FDI流入的因素有很多,如资源优势、宽松稳定的社会环境等。采用中国1983-2006年的Panel Data数据,在计量方法上采用的是加入虚拟变量的普通最小二乘法并结合格兰杰因果检验,发现FDI累计投资额、市场规模及制度因素促进了FDI的流入,而人力资本、市场开放度对FDI的流入无积极影响。并给出相关的政策建议。     

Unionisation and Foreign Direct Investment: Challenging Conventional Wisdom?

This paper investigates the effects of different degrees of wage setting centralisation on the incentive of a MNE to locate in a host country, and on the host country's welfare. Decentralised and centralised wage bargaining are considered. The nature of product market competition between the MNE and domestic firms proves crucial to results which cast doubt on some of the conventional wisdom on FDI. In particular, we show that: (i) it is not always welfare improving to attract inward FDI, and (ii) the MNE may prefer centralised to decentralised wage setting regimes.     

东道国制度安排、市场分割与FDI溢出效应:来自中国的证据

本文选取桂琦寒等(2006)的相对价格法测算了消费品市场、资本品市场和劳动力市场的市场分割指数,并考察了市场分割程度对我国FDI溢出效应的长短期效应。经验分析发现:随着我国市场一体化程度日益加深,外商直接投资对我国各地区的经济增长产生了显著为正的资本效应和溢出效应。其中,溢出效应又可分解为负的技术溢出效应和正的制度变迁效应。负向技术溢出效应产生于市场分割程度降低所引致的外资技术扩散效应尚不足以抵消掉跨国公司的市场窃取效应,而正的制度变迁效应意味着外资流入降低了市场分割程度,对地区经济增长产生了积极的推动作用。我们还发现,长期内的FDI资本效应和溢出效应都要弱于外资流入初期所产生的相应效果。     

中国OFDI反向技术溢出影响因素研究——基于东道国制度环境的视角

文章运用LP模型测算了OFDI反向外溢的国际研发资本,用东道国制度变量与我国OFDI反向外溢的国际研发资本的交叉项作为衡量指标,应用面板协整技术研究了东道国制度因素对我国OFDI反向技术外溢的影响。研究发现,我国OFDI显著促进了技术创新,东道国高效的公共治理、严格的知识产权保护以及完善的技术市场体制均可通过与我国OFDI反向技术外溢的协同作用对我国的技术创新起到促进作用,但其对外开放度对我国OFDI反向技术溢出的促进作用不明显。     

Does integration and economic policy coordination promote business cycle synchronization in the EU?

Previous studies have discounted important factors and indirect channels that might contribute to business cycle synchronization (BCS) in the EU. We estimate the effects of market integration and economic policy coordination on bilateral business cycle correlations over the period 1995–2012 using a simultaneous equations model that takes into accounts both the endogenous relationships and unveils direct and indirect effects. The results suggest that (1) trade and FDI have a pronounced positive effect on BCS, particularly between incumbent and new EU members. (2) Rising specialization does not decouple business cycles. (3) The decline of income disparities in EU27 contributes to BCS, as converging countries develop stronger trade and FDI linkages. (4) There is strong evidence that poor fiscal discipline of EU members is a major impediment of business cycle synchronization. (5) The same argument holds true for exchange rate fluctuations that hinder BCS, particularly in EU15. Since BCS is a fundamental prerequisite and objective in an effective monetary union, the EU has to promote market integration and strengthen the common setting of economic policies.     

谈FDI对我国区域经济均衡发展的影响

外商直接投资(以下简称FD I)在中国经济增长中发挥着重要的推动作用,但是中国吸收FD I的地区分布呈现出非常明显的非均衡特征。这对我国区域经济发展差异产生了重大的影响。从经济增长、产业结构、市场竞争、收入分配、综合竞争等方面阐述了FD I对区域经济发展的影响机制,并提出相应的对策建议。     

双重古诺竞争下的FDI关联溢出效应

扩展了以往理论研究的基本假设,在古诺竞争框架下分析FDI进入东道国上下游双边市场时的关联溢出效应。结果显示:当FDI仅进入东道国的下游市场时,FDI产生的竞争效应会增加下游市场的总产出,从而增大对上游市场中东道国本土供应商的后向关联程度,且其增大程度与技术差距正相关;在FDI同时进入东道国上下游双边市场的情况下,上游市场的FDI会对东道国本土供应商产生挤出效应,且两者的技术差距越大,挤出效应越明显,同时会对下游市场中的东道国本土生产者产生明显的前向关联,上游市场总产出的增加使得中间产品的均衡价格下降,直接减少了下游本土生产者的边际生产成本,从而增加了其产出和利润,部分抵消了下游市场的FDI的挤出效应。