商业银行个人消费信贷风险管理研究

在发挥个人消费信贷对经济发展的助推作用的同时,不能忽视过度发展可能带来的负面影响,特别要对其风险进行防范与控制,保障经济平稳、健康发展。商业银行个人消费信贷业务风险管理概述（一）个人消费信贷业务个人消费信贷业务,是指为了满足个人消费需求的信贷发放,信贷资金是以消费为主要用途,主要用于购买最终商品和服务。不同于商业银行其他信贷业务。     

入世后拓展个人消费信贷业务的风险隐患及防范对策

我国是一个拥有13亿人口的大国，随着居民个人消费需求的不断增长，有着巨大发展潜力的个人消费信贷业务也必将成为中外金融机构争夺的焦点，由于受诸多方面因素的影响，国内的商业银行在拓展个人消费信贷业务的过程中还存在着一定的风险，如何有效防范信贷风险迎接入世挑战已成为当务之急。     

个人消费信贷风险防范对策分析

自改革开放以来,我国经济不断发展,国内居民总体收入水平有了很大提高,消费观念也有所转变。这些都为商业银行开展个人消费信贷业务奠定了基础。从西方国家开展个人消费信贷的经验来看,我国银行业个人消费信贷业务有着广阔的发展前景。有资料表明,目前美国的个人消费信贷约占商业银行贷款总额的20%;加拿大各商业银行中,约有1/3的普通贷款是为社会居民个人提供的。而目前我国的个人消费信贷只占银行贷款规模的7.6%。自20世纪90年代开始,我国商业银行陆续开办了个人消费信贷业务,并取得了显著成效,但作为新兴业务,各商业银行在开办个人消费信…     

居民对个人消费信贷业务的需求情况调查——以江苏常熟为例

本文通过实地问卷调查方式来了解常熟城乡居民对个人消费信贷业务的需求等情况,对调查结果进行描述性分析,看出在常熟城乡开办个人消费信贷业务是可行甚至有潜力的,有较大的市场需求。但是还是存在一些制约个人消费信贷业务发展的因素,导致需求没有突破较大发展,因此,银行可以通过加大宣传力度、建立健全个人信用制度和评价体系、建立完善的个人消费信贷担保抵押制度和及时通知客户,提高客户满意度来促进个人消费信贷业务的发展。     

浅谈个人消费信贷违约风险的影响因素及其风险管理

自20世纪90年代开始,我国商业银行陆续开办个人消费信贷业务,并取得了显著成效。目前,随着个人消费信贷业务规模的快速扩大,违约风险问题也逐渐凸显出来,这在很大程度上制约了我国个人消费信贷市场的健康发展。为了解决违约风险问题,本文从个人消费信贷业务的现状出发,深入分析了影响个人消费信贷违约风险的各种因素,最后提出了防范和...     

努力发挥消费对生产的促进作用--工商银行苏州分行拓展个人消费信贷业务的实践与思考

发展个人消费信贷业务对扩大内需和拉动消费具有重要意义.本文结合有关消费信贷的理论和实践,从工商银行苏州分行1999～2003年拓展个人消费信贷业务的阶段考察入手,分析了发展个人消费信贷业务的经验、体会及需要进一步解决的问题;在此基础上,提出了拓展个人消费信贷业务的战略规划,即按照近期、中期和远期目标,在强化营销、防范风险、整合机制、创新业务、构建资信体系和完善社会环境等方面采取有效措施,逐步理顺各种关系,努力把个人消费信贷业务办成增长快、效益好、竞争力强的银行"精品"业务,推动商业银行和国民经济的持续稳定健康发展.     

个人消费信贷业务中存在的问题及对策

个人消费信贷业务已步入加速发展的阶段,为引导居民正确认识并逐步接纳个人贷款消费方式,积极向社会推广个人消费信贷模式。该文就目前个人消费信贷存在的问题及成因,如何加快个人消费信贷业务发展的对策及措施进行了剖析。     

加快个人消费信贷业务发展的措施

随着城镇居民可支配收入的持续增长,使个人消费步入了空前繁荣时期。在此背景下,个人消费信贷业务成为各商业银行大举进军的新战场,成为商业银行的朝阳业务。但在实际工作中,个人消费信贷业务也存在一些问题,需要积极、妥善地加以解决,以促进其持续、健康发展。一、个人消费信贷业务存在的问题(一)业务风险意识不强。一是对消费信贷风险认识不足。个别管理人员、     

关于个人消费信贷风险防范的几点思考

个人消费信贷业务是现代商业银行众多业务中的一个非常重要的组成部分。个人消费信贷业务的发展,对于我国商业银行完善服     

努力发挥消费对生产的促进作用——工商银行苏州分行拓展个人消费信贷业务的实践与思考

发展个人消费信贷业务对扩大内需和拉动消费具有重要意义。本文结合有关消费信贷的理论和实践．从工商银行苏州分行1999～2003年拓展个人消费信贷业务的阶段考察入手，分析了发展个人消费信贷业务的经验、体会及需要进一步解决的问题；在此基础上，提出了拓展个人消费信贷业务的战略规划，即按照近期、中期和远期目标，在强化营销、防范风险、整合机制、创新业务、构建资信体系和完善社会环境等方面采取有效措施，逐步理顺各种关系，努力把个人消费信贷业务办成增长快、效益好、竞争力强的银行“精品”业务．推动商业银行和国民经济的持续稳定健康发展。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…