当前人民币升值的七大危害

今年以来,美国为了摆脱国内的困境,从总统到议员一致强力施压人民币升值,甚至以列入汇率操纵国名单等手段威胁恐吓,以达到其目的。人民币升值对美国经济会有些好处,但对中国的经济将造成危害。     

从国际汇率制度的历史变迁看美国所扮演的角色和影响

随着美国在人民币汇率问题上对中国的施压,人民币是否应该升值成为了目前热门的话题,我们透过国际汇率制度历史变迁的轨迹,从金本位制下的固定汇率制,到纸币本位制下的可调整的固定汇率制(布雷顿森林体系)和浮动汇率制(牙买加协议)以及其间发生的重大事件,来剖析美国在整个国际汇率演变过程中所扮演的角色和影响.美国始终根据自己的自身的利益主导着国际汇率制度的变迁.     

人民币汇率变动对中美贸易影响的实证分析

引言近年来,人民币汇率问题一直是国际社会和理论界研究的热点问题。由于我国对外贸易收支顺差不断扩大,国际社会纷纷质疑人民币汇率是否被低估,认为被低估的人民币汇率导致了中国大量的贸易顺差,并要求中国政府对人民币汇率制度进行改革或对人民币汇率进行重估,让人民币升值,以减少中国的贸易顺差。一是美国、日本、德国等发达国家认为我国通过压低人民币汇率手段实施贸易保护主义,     

人民币汇率：后危机背景下的再考量

随着世界经济的缓慢复苏,以美国为首的发达国家认为中国因低估人民币汇率而在对外贸易中占据不当竞争优势,加剧了美国等国对华贸易逆差,只有让人民币大幅升值,才能解决对华经贸失衡和国内就业问题。但人民币汇率近期走势说明了人民币实际有效汇率自2005年汇改以来已出现了较大幅的上升,人民币汇率有一定失衡,但币值并非被大幅低估。中美贸易不平衡的根源在于全球化背景下的产业转移和多边治理问题。人民币升值无助于解决中美贸易失衡和美国国内就业问题。目前人民币升值的内在动能不足,适时恢复人民币汇率的弹性将有利于缓解来自外部的压力。     

人民币汇率机制考验国家智慧

从日本财务大臣盐川正十郎早些时候针对中国的汇率政策四处游说以来,今后可能会有更多的国家通过关税或非关税贸易壁垒向中国施压,人民币将承受有史以来最大的升值压力。 美国市场对中国出口有重要意义,对中国的贸易顺差有决定意义,所以说在人民币升值问题上,美国是毫无争议的“关键先生”。随着美国大选开幕在即,布什政府要博得诸如制造业,劳工组织等这些重要领域的选票,人民币汇率政治化的可能性大大增加。 我们首先要坚定不移地保持人民币汇率基本稳定,并采取一些积极的措施来调节人民币的供求,释放升值压力;其次,要加快推进人民币汇率制度的改革;最后,制定和实施具有可操作性的应对措施。请看北京大学国家高新区发展战略研究院研究人员的分析报告。     

中国汇率问题的经济学分析

本文通过梳理中国汇率制度变迁历程,认为人民币价值被低估,并对中国经济产生了一些消极影响。人民币升值对改善美国贸易逆差并无明显作用,但增加汇率弹性有利于中美两国的经济发展。     

人民币汇率争议及其对中美经济关系的影响

最近一年来，人民币汇率问题被国际社会炒得沸沸扬扬，美国政客多方施压，强迫人民币升值，究其实质，是美国政客想借助人民币汇率来转移国内矛盾。中国无须按美国的指挥棒行事，保持人民币汇率稳定。关于人民币汇率的争执和分歧，将不会无休止地继续下去，其影响也将不可能被无限扩大，中美经济将在目前比较稳定的基础上，继续向前发展。     

人民币汇率低估了多少?

关于人民币汇率和全球经济失衡的讨论成为近期热点,大多数市场人士认为人民币汇率大幅度低估。国际上有一些人认为人民币汇率低估是造成全球经济失衡最主要的原因。尽管中国经济的外部失衡较严重,但我们认为这并不是造成过去几年全球经常账户失衡的最主要原因,中国经济外部失衡源自国内经济中深层的结构性扭曲。我们的研究发现：多数情况得出的结果是人民币估值偏低,但确定具体的低估幅度却相对较难。对决策者来说,最重要的是让经济基本面在汇率机制中发挥更大的作用,让基本面的因素引导汇率接近均衡水平。预计今后几年人民币的实际有效汇率每年将上升5％-10％,由名义汇率升值和调整国内相对价格来共同实现。     

关于人民币汇率问题的思考

本文认为,人民币汇率不仅不存在所谓"严重低估",而且从购买力平价角度分析,还有高估之嫌,以人民币汇率严重低估为由逼迫人民币升值缺乏理论和现实依据.中国国际收支顺差和外汇储备快速增长并不是人民币汇率"严重低估"的结果,人民币升值非但不能解决国际收支顺差和外汇储备增长过快问题,反而会成为促使国际收支顺差和外汇储备进一步增长的重要推手.鉴于上述原因,破解前述人民币汇率与国际收支顺差和外汇储备之间恶性循环的对策,绝不能是人民币无休止地升值,而是保持人民币汇率的基本稳定.     

人民币升值问题浅析

我国目前赚取了大量的外汇，因此给人民币汇率造成了很大的压力。美国亦多次向中国施压，要求中国政府积极考虑将人民币升值，以解决中美贸易逆差。人民币是否应升值，升值后对中国总体经济影响如何，人民币是否应逐步开放成为一种国际可兑换货币，本文将围绕这几个方面进行分析。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…