The estimation of agricultural policy effects on soil erosion—An application for the bio-economic model MODAM

As agricultural policies affect land use, they have effects on the amount of soil erosion in agricultural regions through changes of the economic conditions of agricultural production. Prices of inputs and outputs, regulations and incentives can change, forcing or encouraging farmers to adopt new crop rotations. This paper shows how a bio-economic model can be used to describe and estimate the effects of policies on agricultural production and the risk of soil erosion at the example of a region in North-Eastern Germany. The model uses both an assessment tool that is based on a fuzzy-logic approach for the estimation of soil erosion risk of cropping practices, and a linear programming model, that simulates farmers’ economic behaviour under the assumption of gross margin maximisation being the main goal of farmers’ actions.The analysed policy options were both a targeted and an untargeted incentive programme for reduced tillage, and a restriction option where high erosive crops are not allowed on high erodible field types. The results show that policy changes can have an impact on soil erosion. Furthermore, soil conservation policies are shown to have different levels of efficiency in terms of reduced soil erosion related to the costs of the policy. In the case of this study, a restriction option was more efficient than the incentive options. The results of such simulations can serve as a decision support for the development of soil conservation policies and help to foresee the effects of general changes of agricultural policies.     

财税政策、工农业分工与农业生产率——理论分析与经验证据

本文基于动态分工演进,以自给自足的自然经济为起点,将秩序服务和财税政策纳入一个理论框架,结合超边际决策分析和一般均衡分析,考察在此过程中各个经济人的最优决策在市场上相互作用而内生的各种变化,揭示了财税政策作用于工农业分工和农业生产率的内在机制。然后,使用中国改革开放以来的数据对相关结论进行实证检验。模型分析表明,政府财税政策的实施在促进工农业分工水平提高的情况下,会扩大粮食生产的迂回化经济程度,进而推动粮食部门的农地生产率提升。就长期而言,单位面积的财政支农支出对农地生产率的提高有显著正向影响,在其他农业生产要素既定情况下,单位面积的财政支农支出每增加1%,农地生产率增加3.23%;从短期来看,单位面积财政支农支出对农地生产率的作用较弱,但在反向修正机制的作用下,最终会达到有效提高农地生产率的长期稳定均衡。另外,财政支农支出的增加促进了分工水平的提高,而分工水平的提高又推动了农业生产率的提升。     

Land use dynamics in the central highlands of Vietnam: a spatial model combining village survey data with satellite imagery interpretation

The paper investigates geo‐physical, agro‐ecological, and socio‐economic determinants of past land use change in two districts of Dak Lak province in the Central Highlands of Vietnam and assesses the influence of rural development policies on land cover change. Landsat satellite images from the years 1975, 1992 and 2000 are interpreted to detect land cover in two time periods. A survey in randomly selected villages provides primary recall data on socio‐economic and policy variables hypothesised to influence land use change. Secondary data on rainfall, soil suitability, and topography was obtained from meteorological stations and from a digital soil map and digital elevation model. All data were spatially referenced using geographic information systems (GIS) software. A reduced‐form, multinomial logit model is used to estimate the influence of hypothesised determinants on land use and the probabilities that a certain pixel has one of five land classes during either of the two periods. Results suggest that the first period from 1975 to 1992 was characterised by land‐intensive agricultural expansion and the conversion of forest into grass and agricultural land. During the second period, since 1992, the rapid, more labour‐ and capital‐intensive growth in the agricultural sector was enabled by the introduction of fertiliser, improved access to rural roads and markets, and expansion of the irrigated area. These policies, combined with the introduction of protected forest areas and policies discouraging shifting cultivation during the second period reduced the pressure on forests while at the same time increasing agricultural productivity and incomes for a growing population. Forest cover during the second period mainly increased due to the regeneration of areas formerly used for shifting cultivation.     

Land-use changes and policy dimension driving forces in China: Present,trend and future

China has extremely scarce land resources compared to the world average. There is an urgent need for studies of the current situation and the trends in land-use change and assessment of the performance of land policies in China. Assessment of land-use change has long been hindered by a lack of accurate and reliable data. This paper uses the data obtained from the national land surveys of 1996 and land-use change surveys from 1997 to 2008, to analyze changes in land use and the policy dimension driving forces related to the changes, especially cultivated land, forestry land, grassland, as well as developed land. The aim of this analysis will be to derive the physical, social and economical driving forces of those changes to grasp the trends in land-use change and the effects of land policies and to formulate strategies for the protection and sustainable use of agricultural land. The results indicate that, although the overall change in land use was not large, cultivated land was significantly reduced and developed land rapidly increased. A great deal of high quality cultivated land was changed to developed land and low quality cultivated land generated from unused land, which has resulted in a serious threat to food supplies in China. Predictions using the methods of linear extrapolation and a BP neural network indicate that it is impossible to keep to a target of 0.12 billion hectares of cultivated land in the future under the mode of economic development used between 1996 and 2008. The results also indicate that the implementation of the laws and regulations about controlling the developed land and preserving cultivated land had significant effects on changes in land use, especially cultivated land and developed land. The results suggest that the changes in land use are closely related to economic fluctuation and the enaction and implementation of these land policies had a little time lag for cultivated land protection. There is a pressing need for China to use its limited land resources more efficiently and effectively by enacting or re-enforcing the laws and regulations on land resources protection and economic development, not only for its own growing population, but also the world. Therefore, we must formulate strategies for the protection and sustainable use of agricultural land.     

Impact and implications of price policy and land degradation on agricultural growth in developing countries

In many developing countries, a high proportion of the population resides and works in rural areas. Agriculture is the dominant sector in rural areas and has the greatest concentration of poverty: landless workers, small tenant farmers, and small farm owners. Thus, any development strategy that is directed towards increasing employment and alleviating a country's hunger must concentrate on sustainable agricultural growth. Historically, economic development in most countries has been based on exploitation of natural resources, particularly land resources. Soil erosion and land degradation have been serious worldwide. Due to reasons such as high population pressure on land and limited fossil energy supplies, land degradation is generally more serious in the developing world. Empirical studies show that soil erosion and degradation of agricultural land not only decrease the land productivity but they can also result in major downstream or off-site damage which may be several times that of on-site damage. In promoting industrialization, governments of many developing countries adopt a package of price and other policies that reduce agricultural production incentives and encourage a flow of resources out of agriculture. Increasing evidence shows that these policies cause a substantial efficiency or social welfare loss, and a great loss in foreign exchange earnings. In addition, a World Bank study on the effect of price distortions on economic growth rates concluded that neither rich resource endowments, nor a high stage of economic development, nor privatization are able to make up the adverse effects caused by high price distortions. This analysis is primarily concerned with identifying the factors that determine the agricultural production growth rate and in testing the effects these factors have on agricultural growth in developing countries. Specifically, this study involves statistical estimation of an aggregate agricultural growth function based on cross-country data for 28 developing countries. Special attention is devoted to land degradation and agricultural pricing policy, and to the policy implications resulting from the effects these variables have on agricultural and food production growth. The overall results of this study show that price distortions in the economy and land degradation had statistically significant negative impacts while the change in arable and permanent land was positively related to the growth of agricultural production and food production in 28 developing countries from 1971 to 1980. These results emphasize the importance of ‘getting prices right’ and implementation of sustainable land and water management practices if future growth in food and agricultural output is to be realized and sustained in developing countries.     

The Economic Value of Soil Quality under Alternative Management in the Canadian Prairies

This paper describes a dynamic simulation model that integrates environmental and economic components of agricultural crop production systems to predict changes in soil quality and the concomitant impact on economic returns. The model is used to simulate crop yield, soil quality and economic performance of a conventional crop rotation and several alternative crop rotations in two contrasting environments in western Canada over a 50-year period. This information is used to quantify the impact of the crop rotations on soil organic carbon (SOC) and the economic value of on-site SOC changes. The estimated value of these impacts range from $0.20/t to $2.10/t of SOC/ha/yr.     

Sustainable agricultural intensification in forest frontier areas

The Lore Lindu region in Indonesia—as in many forest frontier areas in Southeast Asia—has experienced rapid deforestation due to agricultural expansion in the uplands, at the forest margins. This has resulted in aggravated problems of erosion and water availability, threatening agricultural productivity growth. At the same time, technical progress is promoting agricultural intensification in the lowlands. In this article, we examine how improved technologies for paddy rice cultivation in the lowlands have affected agricultural expansion and deforestation in the uplands. The question of a “forest‐saving” or “forest‐clearing” effect related to technical innovation is important from a sustainable development perspective and remains a controversial issue in the literature. We address this question for the Lore Lindu region with an empirical model in which expansion in the lowlands and the uplands is estimated simultaneously. We use data from an extensive village survey conducted in the region, combined with GIS data. To guide the empirical analysis, we develop a theoretical framework based on a Chayanov‐type agricultural household model. The model analyzes farmers' land allocation decisions, taking into account the lowland–upland dichotomy in the agricultural sector. The empirical findings, corroborated by the analytically derived results, show how technical progress for lowland production affects land use at the forest margins and how these effects depend on the factor‐intensity of the technology. The findings imply specific rural development policies for sustainable agricultural intensification in forest frontier areas.     

Valuing soil conservation benefits of agroforestry: contour hedgerows in the Eastern Visayas,Philippines

Trees can be considered as investments made by economic agents to prevent depreciation of natural assets such as stocks of top soil and water In agroforestry systems farmers use trees in this manner by deliberately combining them with agricultural crops on the same unit of land. Although advocates of agroforestry have asserted that soil conservation is one of its primary benefits, empirical estimates of these benefits have been lacking due to temporal and spatial complexity of agroforestry systems and the nonmarket aspect of soil capital assets. This study designs and applies a bio-economic framework for valuing the soil conservation benefits of agroforestry. The framework is tested with econometric analysis of data from surveys of households in Eastern Visayas. Philippines, where USAID/Government of Philippines introduced contour hedgerow agroforestry in 1983. By constructing a weighted soil quality index that also incorporates measures of soil fertility, texture and color in addition to erosion, we extend previous economic studies of soil resources. This index is regressed on a variety of farming and site specific bio-physical variables. Next, we use a Cobb-Douglas profit function to directly relate agricultural profits and soil quality. Thus, the value of soil conservation is measured as a quasi-rent differential or the share of producer surplus associated with a change in soil quality. Because this framework assumes the existence of markets, the assumption is tested by analysing the statistical significance of consumption side variables, e.g., number of household members, on production side variables, e.g., profits. Instrumental variables are used to handle the endogeneity of the soil index in the profit equation. Seemingly unrelatedregression (SUR) analysis is used to accommodate correlation of errors across the soil and profit equations. Regression results reveal the importance of agroforestry intensity, private ownership, land fragmentation, and familiarity with soil conservation as positive covariates of soil quality. Analysis of production data indicate the importance of market prices, education, farming experience, farm size, topography, and soil quality as positive covariates of household profits Investments in agroforestry to improve or maintain soil capital can increased annual agricultural profits by US$53 for the typical household, which is 6% of total income. However, there are significant up-front costs. Given that small farmers in tropical uplands are important players in the management of deteriorating soil and forest resources, policy makers may want to consider supporting farmers in the early years of agroforestry adoption.     

Extra-legal land market dynamics on a Guatemalan agricultural frontier: Implications for neoliberal land policies

Neoliberal land policies such as land administration seek to improve property rights and the efficiency of land markets to boost rural economic production. Quantitative studies of pre-existing land markets can help planners to tailor these policies to local conditions. In this article we examine an extra-legal land market currently being modernized by a World Bank-sponsored land administration effort. Specifically, we use a hedonic-type revealed preference model and household survey data to estimate the factors affecting extra-legal land prices along an agricultural frontier in Petén, Guatemala. Our model indicates that land value is significantly affected by land attributes including location, tenure status, presence of water, distance to roads, and distance to landowners’ homes, and that land prices in the northwestern Petén are estimated to have risen on average 26.5% per year between 1977 and 2000. We contend that this rate of increase provides a strong incentive for colonists to speculate in land rather than invest in state sanctioned property rights. We conclude that if frontier development programs, such as land administration, are to become attractive to settlers in Petén and elsewhere, they must compete favorably with economic incentives associated with land speculation, or alternatively, target landowners who are not interested in playing the land market.     

湖北省耕地动态变化及其驱动机制分析

本文利用湖北省1952-2003年的统计和普查数据，分析探讨了湖北省50年来耕地数量动态变化及区域差异，并在此基础上应用主成分分析法，分析了影响耕地数量动态变化的驱动机制。结果表明：湖北省耕地数量总体呈下降趟势，耕地变化的区域差异显著，影响耕地动态变化的主要驱动因素为：经济驱动、人口驱动、政策和农业产业结构调整等。     

Proposed algorithm for the identification of land for consolidation with regard to spatial variability of soil quality

The quality of soil is one of the most significant factors having a real impact on the potential level of agricultural crops. Therefore, it is a significant element shaping the profitability of agricultural production in the specific area. Familiarity with spatial variability of soil quality classes in respective voivodeships has an impact on planning the development of agricultural areas and effective allocation of money to rural spatial restructuring. This element also provides important information in the process of consolidation works programming which takes place at the regional government level. This data is characterised by very long usability due to a small number of changes referring to classification of land entered into the land and building survey. Data on the quality and suitability of soil in the analysed area was acquired from the analysis of data from the land and building survey. Analyses were carried out in 3 poviats of Lublin voivodeship located in the eastern part of Poland covering an area of 501 132.9 ha, split into 610,160 plots. This paper presents an algorithm designed by the author for identifying areas in which land consolidation works should be performed, including its practical application using the adopted sample. The algorithm identifies areas characterised by the highest soil quality, which makes it possible to indicate areas where land consolidation work should first be undertaken.     

长江中下游地区农业经济增长中隐含虚拟耕地资源“尾效”对比研究*

[目的]为进一步科学、系统地评估长江中下游地区主要农产品隐含的虚拟耕地资源对农业经济增长的约束或促进作用,进而为国家正确制定和执行合理的土地管理政策提供参考依据。[方法]基于新古典经济增长理论构建农业经济增长中隐含的虚拟耕地资源"尾效"模型,以长江中下游地区7省、市为例进行实证对比分析,并尝试探索虚拟耕地资源"尾效"存在区域差异的原因。[结果]长江中下游地区主要农产品虚拟耕地资源与农业经济增长存在显著相关,虚拟耕地资源的投入进一步加速了浙江、上海和江苏的经济发展,对安徽、湖南、湖北、江西经济发展的促进和约束程度变化不一;虚拟耕地资源增长率、虚拟耕地资源弹性系数、资本弹性系数是虚拟耕地资源"尾效"存在区域差异的主要原因。[结论]长江中下游地区主要农产品虚拟耕地资源"尾效"整体差异明显,对农业经济增长的影响显著。     

Is high-tech zone a policy trap or a growth drive? Insights from the perspective of urban land use efficiency

The increasing number of national high-tech zones (NHTZs) in China has triggered significant changes in land use. Several researchers argued that urban land use efficiency (ULUE) may decrease, due to the so-called “development zone fever”. However, using a super-efficient Slacks-based measure (SBM) model and the Double-difference model, we found that, from the perspectives of scale, factor accumulation, and agglomeration effects, NHTZs policies had a positive impact on ULUE in 285 Chinese cities in the period 2003–2016. In addition, the net effects of NHTZs policies on ULUE were 1.13 % in eastern cities, 0.38 % in central cities, and 0.19 % in western cities. Furthermore, different regions experienced differential impacts from economic development, urbanization level, industrial structure, population, foreign direct investment (FDI), and land marketization. A further empirical test found that the cumulative impacts of NHTZs policies on ULUE are related to both quantity and time. Among these, NHTZs growth time had the highest positive impact on ULUE. This study provides empirical justification for the establishment of NHTZs in China.     

2023年土地科学研究重点进展评述及2024年展望——土地经济分报告

研究目的：梳理并比较2023年国内外土地经济领域的研究进展和研究重点,展望未来研究方向。研究方法：文献分析法。研究结果：2023年,国内研究集中于政策对地价的影响、城市土地供给结构与策略的时空动态、土地财政与土地金融、农村集体经营性建设用地入市改革进展、农地流转的影响因素和结果、三权分置改革、宅基地盘活等问题;国外研究侧重土地保护措施和环境保护政策对地价的影响、土地市场的福利效应、土地产权的性别不平等、征地制度的公平性等。研究结论：2023年土地经济研究领域实现了深度和广度的拓展,下一步应着重通过理论研究的创新实现政策的体系化阐释,通过实证研究的深化促进政策的系统性设计,更好地服务新时期的土地制度改革。2024年将重点关注土地经济学科建设和基础理论研究、土地要素市场化配置、城乡融合发展的土地制度创新、自然资源产权制度改革与权益实现路径、全民所有自然资源资产所有权委托代理制度试点等方向。     

基于GIS运用对旅顺口区农用地分等定级研究

以旅顺口区土地利用现状图、土壤图、地形图等图件资料和土地自然质量、土地利用、土地经济相关统计资料为基础,运用GIS软件的空间叠加分析功能、属性查询功能和制图技术对旅顺口区农用地分等定级进行研究。在进行分等定级研究工作中,运用叠置法划分分等单元;采用特尔斐法确定分等因素及其权重大小;利用指定作物来计算土地利用系数和土地经济系数;在划分农用地等别时使用等间距法,最后生成农用地自然质量等别图、利用等别图和经济等别图。最终获得的旅顺口区农用地分等结果显示,旅顺口区自然质量等为8等至12等,共5个等别,其中11等占参与农用地分等总面积的40.79%,10等占38.79%,8等、12等、9等次之;利用等为11等至13等,12等所占比例最大,达到80.38%,13等最少;经济等别分为12等地和13等地,12等占绝大部分;由此得出旅顺口区农用地等级水平处于中低水平。     

Abandoned agricultural land and its potential for short rotation woody crops in Latvia

Abandoned agricultural land in Latvia offers high potential for renewable energy production, especially for short rotation woody crops (SRWC). The objective of this study is to understand the main reasons why agricultural lands remain abandoned, and whether these reasons could pose any obstacles to the establishment of SRWC. The study was carried out in the Latgale planning region, with estimated 75,530 ha of abandoned agricultural land suitable for SRWC. Qualitative methods of data collection and analysis were used to study the phenomenon. The results show that the primary reason for agricultural land abandonment is the absentee landowners who do not reside in the municipality (e.g., heirs, urban dwellers, intermediaries, and/or investors). Other reasons are: (1) perception of a greater future value from other types of land use; (2) environmental and biophysical characteristics of the land; (3) policy obstacles; (4) social behavior; and, (5) financial and economic constraints. The study also reveals that the establishment of SRWC on abandoned agricultural lands will depend on policies guiding land acquisition and agricultural land use, as well as social and economic policies that encourage small holder production, especially in Latgale.     

Soil conservation and governmental policies in tropical areas: Does aid worsen the incentives for arresting erosion?

This paper focuses on how farmers respond with respect to the adoption of soil conservation measures to governmental agricultural policies aiming at supporting smallholders. A simple micro-economic framework was chosen to undertake an analysis of farmer choices among three activities; farming, adoption of soil conservation measures and off-farm work. The model shows that governments have to be cautious when designing support measures if improved resource management is a policy goal. In the design of such measures, attention has to be paid both to (1) the distribution in land quality, and (2) the distribution in the net returns from adopting soil conservation measures.     

Analyzing crop change scenario with the SmartScape™ spatial decision support system

Agricultural land use is increasingly changing due to different anthropogenic activities. A combination of economic, socio-political, and cultural factors exerts a direct impact on agricultural changes. This study aims to illustrate how stakeholders and policymakers can take advantage of a web-based spatial decision support system (SDSS), namely SmartScape™ to either test existing crop change policies or produce effective crop change decisions using tradeoff analysis. We addressed the consequences of two common crop change scenarios for Dane county in Wisconsin, United States, (a) replacing perennial energy crops with annual energy crops and (b) replacing annual energy crops with perennial energy crops. The results suggested that converting areas under grass and alfalfa production that were located on high quality soil and flat slope to corn promoted a net-income and availability of gross biofuel. Additionally, the model outcome proposed that converting areas under corn and soy production that were located on high slope to grass promoted net-energy, phosphorus loading, soil loss, soil carbon sequestration, nitrous oxide emission, grassland bird habitat, pollinator abundance, and biocontrol. Therefore, SmartScape™ can assist strategic crop change policy by comparing the tradeoff among ecosystem services to ensure that crop change policies have outcomes that are agreeable to a diversity of policymakers.     

中国农业资源错配的测算、时空演变特征及影响因素分析

目的 探究中国农业生产要素错配的时空演变特征及其影响因素,为改善要素空间错配,提高农业生产效率提供相关参考和政策建议。方法 文章以资源错配理论为基础构建农业资源错配指数测算框架,选取2000—2019年中国30个省（市、自治区,不含港澳台和西藏）的经济数据测算出农业资本错配指数、劳动力错配指数、土地错配指数以及相关影响因素指标,采用空间计量模型分析其对农业资源错配的影响。结果 （1）农业资本错配、劳动力错配和土地错配在时空上分别展现出不同的演变发展特征,但都呈现出要素错配不断改善的趋势。（2）从实证结果来看,农业经营规模的提高能够显著改善农业资本错配和土地错配,农业种植结构升级能够有效改善农业劳动力错配和土地错配,政府的宏观调控能够有效改善农业资本错配,同时提高农村金融发展水平是改善农业资本错配一种重要方式。（3）区域经济发展水平提高能够通过促进农业生产要素重新组合来改善农业资本错配和劳动力错配,城镇化发展水平提高能够改善劳动力错配和土地错配。结论 中国农业生产要素在不同区域的错配程度在不断改善,农业经营规模、种植结构和经济发展水平是影响要素错配的关键因素,消除要素流动障碍,完善区域联动机制是改善要素错配的重要方式。     

Policies for agricultural development in Peninsular Malaysia

This paper highlights land use changes in the agricultural sector of Peninsular Malaysia. Since rational land use necessitates consideration of alternatives in relation to the natural potential of the land, the author examines the land resource inventory based on soil suitability and land utilization. This is followed by a discussion of land use changes brought about by public sector land development agencies and the private sector. The author gives a review of current land use policies and concludes with possible alternatives for the future.