强化内审工作的思考

作为对监管者再监督的人民银行内审工作，在人民银行工作中发挥着预防，维护，促进三个方面的作用。目前，内审工作存在不少具体问题，只有采取针对性措施，切实加强内审工作，才能充分发挥内审工作再监督的作用，促进人民银行依法，合理，公正，有效地履行中央银行职责。     

更新内审理念防范央行风险

几年来，人民银行内审工作发挥了重要作用，但仍存在领导关系不尽合理，风险控制意识欠缺，以及内审再监督作用发挥不够理想等问题。应当从改革内审部门组织体系，提高内审工作的独立性等五个方面着手进行改革，以进一步发挥内部审计工作的职能作用。     

规避审计风险 做好内审工作

内审监督作为人民银行内部一种自我控制、自我约束和自我调整的综合性、高层次的再监督手段，是保证中央银行有效运行的基础。内审部门成立两年多来，在强化金融监管，加强内部管理，防洪和化解金融风险方面发挥了积极的作用，随着内审工作的深入开展，内审部门所承担的任务明显增加，所涉及的工作更加广泛，相应地，审计风险问题也日益突出。如何把审计风险控制在最小的范围，是摆在内审人员面前的重要课题。     

探索人民银行内审监督机制的有效途径

人民银行内审机构设立以来,在传导货币政策、强化金融监管和服务中发挥了积极的保驾护航作用。几年来的实践证明。目前人民银行内审工作尚缺乏独立性和超脱性,严重制约和阻滞了人民银行内审工作作用的进一步发挥,笔者认为构建基层人民银行规范有效的内审监督机制,应从以下几个方面着手:     

内审工作的薄弱环节及其强化对策

自1998年底人民银行体制改革时新增设以来,内审部门立足于对人民银行分支机构、职能部门及其工作人员履行职责情况的监督,以资金、财务、金融监管的运作情况为重点,以建立科学的内控机制为目标,通过一系列的全面审计、专项审计、后续审计、离任审计和内审调查,查错纠弊、堵漏补缺,在防范人民银行自身的金融风险,确保人民银行廉洁、公正、高效地行使金融监管职责等方面发挥了积极的作用,逐步确立了内审工作在人民银行内部管理中的重要监督地位.但与其它任何一项工作一样,随着金融经济形势的不断发展和变化,特别是随着人民银行分支机构金融监管、金融服务等职能的不断调整和转变,起步较晚的内审工作在实践中也逐渐暴露出了越来越多的薄弱环节,迫切需要探索更加行之有效的对策加以强化.     

对内审人员专业胜任能力的思考

面对我国加入WTO带来的各种挑战，如何发挥人民银行内审部门审计的保证和咨询作用，实现促进加强内部管理，强化内控机制的工作目标，已成为普遍关心的一个重要问题。加强内审部门职能建设，认真履行监督职责是重要方面，但内审人员具备应有的对金融风险的分析、识别、判断、化解、评价、控制能力和较强的专业胜任能力，具有扎实的理论功底和丰富的实践经验，是实现内审工作目标的重要前提。     

如何改进基层央行内审工作的现状

近年来,虽然人民银行基层行内审部门按照上级行和支行内审工作要求,组织实施了对同级人民银行各部门及其工作人员履行职责、执行制度等方面的多种形式的内部审计工作,在督促加强和完善内控制度、规范业务操作、认真履行岗位职责、提高金融监督和金融服务水平等方面,起到了积极有效的促进作用,但是,人民银行基层行内部审计监督的有效性和独立性仍然没有得到充分的发挥,基层央行内审工作仍安于现状,还存在着一些不容忽视的问题。     

谈谈人行内审工作的制约与创新

几年来，人民银行内审部门认真履行职责，内审人员尽心尽职努力工作，在防范金融风险、加强内部管理等方面取得了一定的成效。但由于人民银行内审工作起步较晚，现行的内审组织架构、管理体制、审计方法、审计手段等方面滞后于央行业务的发展和变化，     

积极推进内审工作 "三个转变"

人民银行内审工作要努力实现“三个转变”，即：工作重心由监督为主向监督与评价并重的方向转变，思维方式由侧重微观向微观与宏观并重的方向转变，内审手段由手工操作为主向利用计算机和信息技术的方向转变。     

发挥内审职能作用的浅见

金融监管体制改革以后，人民银行面临许多新的任务和挑战，对内审工作也提出了新的更高的要求。面对新形势、新任务，人民银行内审部门要积极优化内审环境，改进内审监督，提高依法审计能力和审计质量。[第一段]     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…