The Displacement Effect of Public Pensions on the Accumulation of Financial Assets*

The generosity of public pensions may depress private savings and provide incentives to retire early. While there is plenty of evidence supporting the latter effect, there remains considerable controversy over whether public pensions crowd out private savings. This paper uses international micro‐data sets collected over recent years to investigate whether public pensions displace private savings. The identification strategy relies not only on cross‐country differences in generosity but also on differences in the progressivity or non‐linearity of pension formulas across countries. We estimate that an extra dollar of pension wealth depresses accumulated financial assets around the time of retirement by 22 cents. An extra 10,000 dollars in public pension wealth reduces the average retirement age by roughly one month, which implies an elasticity of years of retirement with respect to pension wealth of 0.15.     

Would emerging market pension funds benefit from international diversification: investigating wealth accumulations for pension participants

In recent years, investment portfolio selection is growing in importance for many emerging market pension funds, as pension reforms replace traditional pay-as-you-go systems with advanced funding systems. Various investment regulations are applied to the funded pensions, particularly in the form of portfolio limits for equities and international assets. With a bootstrap simulation approach, this paper attempts to quantify the impacts on retirement benefits of restricting international assets from the investment portfolios of emerging market pension funds. We find that, on average, over half of the pension portfolios of emerging market countries should be in international assets in order to maximize the expected utility of moderate and conservative pension fund participants. More generally, international assets can play a significant role in the investment portfolios for workers with risk aversion varying from aggressive to conservative. With few exceptions, the entire probability distribution of wealth accumulations at retirement could be shifted higher with the inclusion of international assets.     

Elderly empowerment,fertility, and public pensions

The economic role of elderly people is underestimated in the context of the debate on pension reforms. This is because, as healthy life expectancy increases, the elderly become more active not only in the labor market but also in household production. Using a three-period overlapping-generations model in which grandparents allocate time between labor and informal childcare (“grandparenting”), we analyze the interaction among grandparenting, fertility, elderly labor, and public pensions. We obtain two analytical results. First, increasing the pension contribution rate increases grandparenting. Second, elderly labor force participation rates are negatively (positively) related to the fertility rates among countries with small (large) public pensions. The nonlinear relationship between elderly labor and fertility is empirically supported.

     

Exploring the pension ‘X factor’ for generation Y men

In order to reduce state dependency in retirement, current UK pension policy automatically enrols employees into workplace pensions. A key component of success is preventing workers opting-out of the workplace scheme. However, Australian research examining auto-enrolment policy indicates that young men prioritise enjoying life over retirement saving. This article seeks to inform financial services marketing within the new pension auto-enrolment context through examining attitudes towards retirement and pensions among young men in the United Kingdom. Qualitative data is gathered from five dyadic interviews, thematic analysis reveals salient issues of widespread mistrust, negative perceptions of retirement and limited knowledge of auto-enrolment coupled with confidence in future earnings and a desire for greater control. The article concludes with implications for pensions communications planning.     

论社会保障

在对美国社会保障制度改革的政策建议中,彼得·戴蒙德教授主张通过养老金相关参数的调整来适应未来养老基金支出增长的压力,方式是改善养老金待遇标准和税收规则以确保养老基金的精算平衡。其基本观点是:第一,社会保障是退休后收入的基础,是防止贫困和失去保险机会的保障,所以社会保障制度应该建立;第二,因为人们很少自愿进行养老金积累,年金化的强制性公共养老金就非常重要,一是能平衡终生收入,二是能够提供就业激励;第三,公共养老金计划对工人及其家庭,特别是儿童、配偶和遗属有重要保障作用;第四,延迟退休能提高未来的消费,设计合理的待遇累进原则和退休审查制度会有助于增加劳动激励;第五,养老金的代际转移是一种再分配,较多的再分配会对工作生涯形成激励;第六,为实现精算平衡,应引入自动平衡机制来自动调整税率和待遇水平,以减少立法的压力。     

Labor supply and government programs: A cross-country analysis

There are substantial cross-country differences in labor supply late in the life cycle (age 50+). A theory of labor supply and retirement decisions is developed to quantitatively assess the role of social security, disability insurance, and taxation for understanding differences in labor supply late in the life cycle across European countries and the United States. The findings support the view that government policies can go a long way towards accounting for the low labor supply late in the life cycle in the European countries relative to the United States, with social security rules accounting for the bulk of these effects.     

我国职工退休年龄影响因素的实证研究

当前我国劳动力逐渐短缺,职工退休年龄直接关系到我国劳动力供给的数量和结构。使用2011年在广东省21个地市的问卷调查数据,研究影响职工退休年龄问题的影响因素。实证研究表明,工资、工龄对职工退休年龄的影响显著为正。养老金对男职工退休年龄的影响显著为负。机关事业单位职工的退休年龄更晚。教育年限对女职工的影响显著为正。已婚、...     

Pension reform,retirement, and life-cycle unemployment

This paper investigates the labor market impact of four often proposed policy measures for sustainable pensions: strengthening the tax benefit link, moving from wage to price indexation of benefits, lengthening calculation periods, and introducing more actuarial fairness in pension assessment. We consider the impact on three margins of aggregate labor supply, retirement behavior, job search, and hours worked. We provide some analytical results and use a computational model to demonstrate the economic impact of recent pension reform in Austria. Reducing the distortion in the retirement decision by introducing pension supplements and discounts conditional on the chosen retirement date promises the largest gains. We also find that the pension reform is far from sufficient to offset the fiscal implications of projected demographic change in Austria.     

Public Pension Reform in the United Kingdom: What Effect on the Financial Well‐Being of Current and Future Pensioners?*

Unlike many tax and benefit changes, reforms to public pension programmes take many years to have their full effect. This paper examines the effect of reforms to the public pension programme in the United Kingdom on the state retirement incomes of current generations of pensioners and on the prospective state incomes of future generations of pensioners. We show that, for an individual with lifetime earnings close to male average earnings, the UK pension system is at its most generous to those reaching the state pension age around the year 2000, but that the introduction of the state second pension and the pension credit postpones this peak for individuals on lower incomes and for those with substantial periods out of paid employment spent with caring responsibilities. We also consider how the ‘mix’ of benefits, particularly between the contributory and income‐tested sectors, could change over time, and the impact that this would have on incentives to save for retirement.     

The effect of fiscal stress and balanced budget requirements on the funding and measurement of state pension obligations

We examine the extent to which fiscal stress and state balanced budget restrictions affect the funding of state public employee retirement systems. Our results indicate a negative relation between pension funding levels and measures of both: (a) state fiscal stress and (b) the existence of balanced budget requirements. Our finding that fiscally stressed states meet balanced budget requirements through reduced funding of pensions raises public policy concerns over the fiscal integrity of employee pension funds in the public sector and the effectiveness of balanced budget requirements. Additionally, we find evidence that choice of pension discount rate is associated with states’ fiscal condition and the requirement to balance the budget. Our findings are consistent with the proposition that fiscally stressed states that are required to balance their budgets both underfund their pensions and select discount rates which obscure the underfunding.     

延迟退休年龄、内生生育率与养老金

本文通过构建内生生育率的OLG模型,从微观视角考察了延迟退休年龄对生育率、养老金替代率及其个人养老金收入的影响。研究表明:(1)延迟退休年龄会提高均衡时的生育率水平,但提高幅度非常有限。(2)生育率的提高会增加未来劳动力供给,促进养老金替代率上升和养老金收入增加,而延迟退休年龄延长了养老保险缴费期限,也会促进养老金替代率上升和养老金收入增加;但同时,延迟退休年龄将使得预防性储蓄下降,资本积累降低,工资收入下降,养老金收入降低。因此,延迟退休年龄会使养老金替代率上升。当资本产出弹性大于或等于0.5时,延迟退休年龄会使得养老金收入降低;当资本产出弹性小于0.5时,在平均预期寿命较大或养老保险缴费比例较高的情形下,养老金收入会随着退休年龄的延迟而增加,反之,其会随着退休年龄的延迟而降低。进一步地,将模型拓展到包含人力资本的情形,延迟退休年龄仍会提高均衡时的生育率与养老金替代率。     

风险分散与中国混合型基本养老保险制度改革研究

本文从参保人养老投资风险分散角度研究混合型基本养老保险制度设计。通过构建一个两期消费模型,综合考虑参保人所面临的人口结构、工资增长率、养老基金投资等风险因素,本文研究了混合型基本养老保险制度中现收现付制与基金积累制的最优比例,并利用中国数据进行了测算与敏感性分析。研究发现:引入小规模个人账户基金积累制可以分散人口老龄化给现收现付制所带来的风险,中国实行混合型基本养老保险制度有其合理性;但如果要维持40%～45%的养老金替代率水平,中国基本养老保险制度的财务可持续性会面临较大挑战。     

Rentenversicherung zwischen Nachhaltigkeit und Gerechtigkeit

Compared to other Western European countries, Germany has taken considerable steps to improve the sustainability of financing its public pension system. However, more recently we have observed attempts to revoke some of the enacted reforms before their implementation. If the positive correlation between income and life expectancy is taken into account, one can indeed diagnose a discrimination against low-income earners in the present retirement benefit schedule, and this very group will suffer disproportionately from the increase in legal retirement age enacted in 2007. Therefore, to protect the sustainability of the pension system in the political sphere, it may be necessary to modify the schedule in favor of this group. In other words, sustainability and equity of the pension system must go hand in hand.     

Wages,productivity, and retirement

Pensions, both state provided and privately provided, affect incentives to retire. But private pensions are part of the long term compensation package, and altering pensions not only affects retirement incentives, but also wages. A key factor in determining whether retirement occurs at the appropriate age is the relation of productivity to alternatives. When wages, coupled with public and private pension accrual, deviate from worker productivity, private retirement incentives are distorted. Sometimes this results in too much early retirement, creating fiscal difficulties. Sometimes, it results in a desire for delayed retirement, which argues for mandatory retirement rules. Pay compression, where wages do not vary across individuals as much as productivity, exacerbate distortions. Defined benefit pension plans tend to create incentives to retire after a certain number of years of work. Defined contribution plans do not have this feature. Public plans should be designed noting their interaction with incentives that are already inherent in the private wage and pension schemes.     

Is Prescott right? Welfare state policies and the incentives to work, learn, and retire

This paper bolsters Prescott’s (Fed. Reserve Bank Minneap. Q. Rev. 28(1):2–13, 2004) claim that high taxes are responsible for lackluster labor market performance in Continental European countries. We develop a life-cycle model with endogenous skill formation, endogenous labor supply, and endogenous retirement. Labor taxation distorts not only labor supply, but also education and retirement decisions. Actuarially unfair pensions further exacerbate labor tax distortions on retirement. Education subsidies can nevertheless cushion the adverse impact of taxation on skill formation. Feedbacks between education, labor supply, and retirement are important. The model is simulated with realistic behavioral elasticities that are consistent with microeconometric evidence. If, besides labor supply, also learning and retirement are endogenous, the uncompensated (compensated) elasticity of the tax base equals 0.46 (0.85), which is more than twice as large as the standard uncompensated (compensated) labor supply elasticity of 0.18 (0.40). Furthermore, life-cycle interactions between education, working, and retirement are quantitatively important and the interactions raise all behavioral elasticities substantially. For example, the uncompensated labor supply elasticity increases with one-half due to life-cycle interactions (to 0.26). We demonstrate that low European labor supply can be fully explained by taxation without relying on unrealistically high labor supply elasticities. Reducing labor market distortions, cutting benefit levels, lowering tax rates, and making (early) retirement actuarially more fair, therefore, boosts labor supply, delays retirement, and stimulates skill formation. In addition, high education subsidies are needed in large welfare states to offset explicit and implicit tax burdens on human capital investment.      

Demographic Change and Pension Reform in Spain: An Assessment in a Two‐Earner,OLG Model*

Recent pension reforms in Spain have been guided by two opposite goals: achieving financial stability and improving redistributive aspirations. In particular, reforms implemented in 1997/2001 entailed a mixture of both through: (i) changes in the pension formula; (ii) the extension of entitlement to early retirement to all cohorts; and (iii) increases in survival pensions. This paper builds an applied general equilibrium OLG model that captures the fundamental non‐stationarity of the Spanish reality (ageing population, education transition and increasing female attachment to the labour market) to assess the impact of those reforms. As a novel feature with respect to the literature, households in our model economy are made up of two potential earners who make saving and labour supply decisions. Our main conclusions from the analysis are at three different levels. First, the Spanish pension system is clearly unsustainable, with pension expenditure reaching a figure of about 18 per cent of GDP in 2050, and the reforms have clearly been     

Are family allowances and fertility-related pensions perfect substitutes?

This paper discusses alternative ways to deal with the positive externalities of having children in a pay-as-you-go pension system. Family allowances are compared to introducing a fertility-related component into the pension formula. In an endogenous labor supply setting, both instruments are shown to be equivalent if general pensions are related to previous contributions. In contrast, if general pensions are of the flat-rate type, making pensions contingent on the number of children is generally preferable to family allowances because the latter creates a larger tax load on labor supply.      

Making Federal Pension Policy Work

Abstract

Millions of Americans retire while they are still productive. Of these, many will have the resources to enjoy all of their golden years. Unfortunately, many others will face economic hardships after they have exhausted their own resources but have become too frail to return to work. Part of the problem is that the current pension system is fraught with financial incentives that push ablebodied elderly workers into retirement just when they should instead be encouraged to remain in the workforce to accumulate additional retirement assets. This paper recommends a number of ways to change federal pension laws in order to encourage elderly workers to remain in the workforce. For example, this paper recommends toughening the penalty on premature distributions, repealing the minimum distribution rules, and repealing the exceptions to the Age Discrimination in Employment Act that permit retirement plans to provide early retirement incentives and subsidies.

This paper also considers whether the government should require that all retirement plans be neutral as to the timing of retirement. In an age-neutral world, workers would always accrue more benefits if they kept working. Consequently, more workers would remain in the workforce, accumulating additional assets for their eventual retirement.

Finally, this paper also considers how federal pension policy could help counteract the tendency of Americans to retire too early because they underestimate their life expectancies, overestimate their financial resources, and fail to understand the deleterious effects of inflation. In particular, this paper recommends that the government require that virtually all retirement plans pay at least a portion of their benefits in the form of an inflation-adjusted annuity.     

英国职业养老金发展动态及启示

本文介绍了英国职业养老金的基本情况。在老龄化等影响下,英国公共部门和私有部门职业养老金分别出现了严重危机。近年英国政府全面加强了职业养老金改革,包括实施养老金个人账户制,调整公共部门养老金政策,提出加强工作养老金的设想等。这些政策的核心是如何设计一种更有效率,但同时保障了人们养老需求的市场化私有养老金模式。英国职业养老金的发展的经验教训,对我国完善养老金制度有积极启示意义。     

Public and Private Pension Spending: Principles,Practice and the Need for Reform

This paper surveys the issue of public spending on pensions. Drawing on evidence from systems around the world, but particularly in Britain, we outline the arguments for different types of public and private provision of pension income and consider how far they go towards meeting the objectives of pension provision. We discuss past trends in spending and look at future projections.