Corporate foresight in emerging markets: Action research at a multinational company in Turkey

The corporate foresight—future studies in business—is gaining importance globally. However, research to date has largely focused on the multinational companies (MNC) and yet revealed little about the implementation of corporate foresight in the regional subsidiaries of MNCs in emerging markets. An action research in the regional subsidiary of an MNC in Turkey was carried out to address this gap. Seven major findings/challenges were recorded during the action research: (1) changing mental models about the future, (2) controlled two-tier structure, (3) customisation of methodologies, (4) thorough examination of information sources, (5) external participation, (6) changing the primary dimension of the company and (7) sharing with other regional subsidiaries and corporate headquarters. These findings were categorised under a new framework—Knowledge-People-System-Organisation (KPSO) framework for managing the corporate foresight process at MNCs in emerging markets. The balanced distribution of the findings in this new framework shows that it could be used for further theory development in the area of corporate foresight and implemented in further corporate foresight exercises.     

Corporate foresight and innovation management: A portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development

The transition from a traditional industry-driven economy to a knowledge-based economy requires new concepts and methods for companies to sustain competitive advantage. Here, academia has identified corporate foresight and innovation as key success factors. While, content-wise, the contribution of futures research methods to the innovation process has already been researched, this study strives to explore the status quo of organizational development stages of both concepts. To do so, we developed a portfolio-approach, the so-called ‘Future-Fitness-Portfolio’, which enables companies to qualitatively compare amongst others and identify organizational improvement potential. In addition, we conducted expert interviews to explore future organizational development trends in corporate foresight and innovation management. As our research revealed, five strategic clusters can be identified within the portfolio. Consequently, we propose specific strategies for each individual cluster. We conclude that there will be two main organizational development trends for corporate foresight and innovation management in the future: in traditional industries with conventional business models and long product-life-cycles, companies will follow a different development path than companies in dynamic industries with innovative business models and short product-life-cycles.     

Beatrice: A Study in the Creation and Destruction of Value

This paper chronicles the history of the Beatrice company from its founding in 1891 as a small creamery, through its growth by acquisition into a diversified consumer and industrial products firm, and its subsequent leveraged buyout and sell-off. The paper analyzes the value consequences the firm's acquisition and divestiture policies, its organizational strategy, and its governance. The analysis sheds light on a number of issues in organization theory, strategy, and corporate finance, including the sources of value in diversifying aquisitions, the cost of over-centralization and weak corporate governance, and the mechanisms of value creation in the market for corporate control.     

Organizing strategic foresight: A contextual practice of ‘way finding’

Strategic foresight as a derived outcome of corporate foresight exercises has led to the dominant discourse on strategic foresight as an episodic intervention encompassing a proliferation of organizational foresight methodologies. We argue that such an approach is flawed, consigning strategic foresight to a narrow function in a planning perspective. To move the field into more fertile pastures for research, we draw on the practice theoretical lens to provide an alternative viewpoint on strategic foresight as a bundle of everyday organizing practices. In keeping with the practice approach to strategic foresight, we delineate strategic foresight as a continuous and contextual practice of ‘wayfinding’, that manifest in everyday situated organizing. We offer an integrating framework that contributes to the ongoing discussions about alternative approaches to theorizing strategic foresight.     

“Foresight process impacts: Beyond any official targets,foresight is bound to serve democracy”

Foresight is usually criticised for having a limited direct impact on policy-making. Although contexts play a significant role, this may be true to a certain extent. It is also true, however, that the value of foresight has been under-explored. The purpose of the paper is to show the value of foresight in contributing to the development of more participatory societies irrespective of the specific ‘official’ objectives it is designed to serve. The methodology included the creation of a specific impact assessment framework and the assessment of certain foresight exercises (FNR Foresight and eFORESEE Malta) in terms of contribution to more participatory societies through case studies. The assessment showed that although contributing to more participatory societies was not among the main aims of the particular exercises, they managed to achieve certain impacts facilitating increased public participation or directly improving democratic processes in policy-making. Foresight is ‘by default’ devised to promote democratic processes through inclusiveness, openness, transparency, public engagement, and multi-stakeholder approaches.     

Prediction markets for foresight

To navigate turbulent business environments, organizations have to develop foresight capacities that enable them to anticipate probable futures, respond rapidly to emerging changes, and support future oriented action. However, there are remaining barriers that impede a wider implementation of foresight. In particular, the necessities to deal with the future, anticipate change, enhance participation and reduce costs and complexity call for new methods to improve current foresight activities. In this paper, we introduce prediction markets to the field of foresight. Prediction markets are a structured approach to collect and aggregate information from groups and have recently gained attention in forecasting. Prediction markets go beyond simple forecasting and can contribute to foresight by providing advantages in terms of continuous and real-time information aggregation, motivation of participation and information revelation as well as cost-efficiency and scalability. We suggest four promising fields of application for prediction markets to enhance foresight: (1) continuous forecasting and environmental scanning, (2) combining with deliberative approaches, (3) continuous idea generation and (4) expert identification. We conclude by considering prediction markets as a nascent and promising method for foresight and advocate for further research.     

Exploring the impact of technology foresight studies on innovation: Case of BRIC countries

This paper explores technology foresight activities in the BRIC countries. The article starts from recent trends in foresight research, including the generation models, methodologies, connections with innovation, and influence of globalization. The case analysis section will focus on the development of technology foresight activities in BRICs. Some common technology foresight issues and characteristics are identified and summarized for the BRICs and other emerging countries.     

Carbon Accounting: Challenges for Research in Management Control and Performance Measurement

Carbon reduction programs and corporate emissions reporting have expanded rapidly across firms in response to climate change and global warming. This development is partly driven by institutional demands and partly by value creation considerations. The consequences of these developments for management accounting and control (MAC) are not clear, despite anecdotal evidence that suggests an increasing effort to incorporate carbon accounting into traditional decision and reporting processes. The reasons for this lack of clarity are the disproportionate focus in practice on carbon disclosure, compared to a small number of empirical studies, and the absence of an academic debate in this novel area from a MAC perspective. This paper seeks to stimulate such an academic debate by reviewing the extant literature, identifying key theoretical and empirical shortcomings of extant academic research, and outlining some directions for future studies on carbon accounting. These directions are inspired by more established MAC research that may help to guide and organize MAC research in the emerging and exciting field of carbon accounting.     

Incorporating futures research into regional knowledge creation and management

This article focuses on future-oriented knowledge within regional innovation networks. Concrete regional tools and institutional settings aiming to enhance knowledge creation and management in such networks are needed. To enable planning for the future, there is a need for regional visionary capability. Resource-based futures research may make an important contribution in reducing the insecurity that regions face in the turbulent environment. When foresight processes are not absorbed into the regional strategy making processes, ‘black holes of regional strategy making’ come into existence, and future scenarios are built without taking into consideration the path-dependency of a region.This article attempts to reduce the gap between futures research, on the one hand, and regional knowledge and innovation management, on the other hand. It highlights the concept of self-transcending knowledge—the ability to sense the presence of potential. It then introduces a new, systemic model for knowledge creation and management in regional innovation networks. Utilising methods from futures research in creating self-transcending knowledge in a regional knowledge management system is proposed as a fruitful way of enhancing regional visionary capability. The article thus advocates combining approaches and methodologies from futures research with those of knowledge management in a novel way.     

我国公司财务弹性与公司价值的研究——来自食品类上市公司的经验数据

本文在已有的研究的基础上,通过理论分析构建财务弹性指数构建的可能性,并对食品类上市公司构建了一个多维的财务弹性指标体系,通过对上述方法得出的财务弹性指数与公司价值进行多元回归分析,进一步探究财务弹性与公司价值之间的关系.研究表明,食品类上市公司财务弹性指数整体偏低,通过对财务弹性指数进行多元回归发现,财务弹性指数与公司价值呈正相关,保持有效的财务弹性水平有利于公司价值的提升.     

Wie man durch Moral ins „Geschäft“ kommt: Ein ordonomischer Beitrag zum betrieblichen Risikomanagement

Through an analysis of Alfred Krupp’s 19th-century social welfare program, this paper develops an ordonomic contribution to corporate risk management. The paper argues that companies can employ ‘morality as a factor of production’ by a differentiated business strategy of moral commitments. In this way, companies can not only considerably reduce their exposure to the undesirable risks of losing core business relationships with important stakeholders. But at the same time, businesses may increase their readiness to take desirable innovation risks that are pivotal for long-term value creation. Ultimately, the paper develops an argument for how companies can better live up to the role of being an agent of societal value creation, often articulated by concepts such as “corporate social responsibility” or “corporate citizenship”.     

Corporate Governance,Product Market Competition,and the Wealth Effect of R&D Spending Changes

This article examines whether corporate governance and product market competition interact to affect the profitability of corporate research and development (R&D) investments. Firms announcing R&D spending changes experience positive and significant wealth effects, and these effects are mainly driven by good‐governance firms. Investors appear to view announcements of R&D spending changes undertaken by firms with stronger shareholder rights as evidence of value creation. Moreover, the favorable wealth effects are stronger for good‐governance firms in noncompetitive industries than in competitive industries, supporting the argument that good governance substitutes for product market competition.     

The importance of focus for generating customer value

A carefully chosen customer value proposition (CVP) is essential to create customer value. Both value creation from the customer and the corporate viewpoint gain from consistent and deliberate focus on key market segments and core competences. The result is a mutual exchange of value, thus stabilising and strengthening the competitive position in the market. Conversely, failure to maintain a consistent focus puts value creation at risk, and potentially causes one's competitive position to break down. System Theory offers a useful framework to integrate value creation from both the customer and the corporate perspective.     

从可持续发展视角谈“整合报告”对企业价值的贡献

＂整合报告＂代表了企业报告发展的最新趋势。2010年8月,全球报告倡议组织（GRI）与威尔士王子可持续会计项目（A4S）联合成立了国际整合报告委员会（IIRC）,便旨在推动全球建立统一的整合报告框架,该框架建议企业提供一份将财务、环境、社会责任和治理信息经整合的报告,由此掀起了一场关注整合报告的热潮。本文另辟蹊径,从可持续发展理论出发,诠释了整合报告与企业价值创造和可持续发展之间的传导问题。     

Quality of data, information and knowledge in regional foresight processes

A central subcategory of futures research is technology foresight. There is a concern that today's technology foresight processes do not serve technology-political decision-making and strategy processes of companies well enough. The regional level needs to be emphasized, too, and the inclusion of a wide variety of actors and organizations. There is a danger that results of foresight processes are not absorbed into regional strategy-making processes, leading to a “black hole of interpretation and implementation of foresight knowledge”. Particularly knowledge, but also data and information are crucial concepts in foresight processes. An important issue is how to transform foresight information into future-oriented innovation knowledge. Concrete tools and institutional settings to enhance data, information and knowledge quality in foresight processes and strategy work are needed. This article investigates limitations of established foresight processes and planning approaches, limitations in practical utilization of results of foresight processes, and quality of data, information and knowledge as concrete tools and as a systematic response to limitations. The article is partly based on empirical results from a technology foresight survey undertaken in Finland in 2005. The research responds to societal and academic interest by combining the fields of (i) futures research and (ii) data, information and knowledge quality. Future-oriented considerations are not routine tasks, which makes it especially challenging and important to ensure that these processes benefit from data, information and knowledge of good quality.     

Managerial discretion and agency cost in Indian market

This paper investigates empirically the impact of managerial discretion on agency cost from the perspective of SG&A cost asymmetry and examines how corporate governance moderates this relationship. The analysis shows mixed evidence in favor for cost behavior and managerial choices in the Indian market. The cost asymmetry involves not only cost stickiness but also the anti-sticky behavior of SG&A cost under certain circumstances. The main drivers for this disparity are owing to manager's resource adjustment decision, the future expectation of sales and managers' empire-building behavior. Furthermore, findings suggest that strong corporate governance alleviates empire-building behavior of managers. Additional analysis shows, the asymmetric behavior of SG&A cost in crisis period is mainly a result of managers' resource adjustment decision and future expectation of sales change. Manager's empire-building behavior does not play an explicit role in this period. Next, the findings show that managers' discretion is influenced by future value creation potential of SG&A cost. Manager's empire-building behavior is more pronounced in low-value creation sample firms compared to high-value creation sample. Thus, manager's choice for resource adjustment decision and empire-building behavior changes according to the future value creation of SG&A cost, financial conditions and corporate governance mechanisms in Indian companies. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study performed in Indian capital market where the SG&A cost asymmetry tests the managers' empire-building behavior. Overall, findings of the study indicate manager's resource adjustment decisions and empire-building behavior caused by their consideration and this results in a form of agency costs. In comparison with developed markets, Indian markets have relatively less agency problem due to managerial empire-building behavior.     

The Communist Party Committee and corporate takeovers

Existing empirical studies on Chinese corporate governance ignore the role of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) over which it has direct control. This study examines a unique corporate governance mechanism in Chinese SOEs: the co-existence of party committee and board of directors, and considers the monitoring effects of the party committee on the value creation of Chinese state-owned acquiring firms. I show that acquisitions with their own party committees create significantly higher market value for acquiring firms, especially for acquirers with fewer external monitoring mechanisms, while value creation remains in long-term, post-event periods. I further document that the collective decision can contain the “empire building” of mangers and reduce the premium is the source of this value creation, while the findings remain unchanged after controlling for endogeneities.     

Towards better participatory processes in technology foresight: How to link participatory foresight research to the methodological machinery of qualitative research and phenomenology?

Technological progress does not happen in a social vacuum. Shaping of tomorrow is not possible without qualitative analyses. Therefore, the social and psychological dimensions of reality form an important part of technology foresight. Qualitative research will be needed to understand superficial and deep structures of social realities. So called push and pull factors are always linked to social behaviour. People's relationship to the use of technologies and the utilization of technologies is a complex and not a one-dimensional or monological issue. Monological methodological approaches can be harmful and confusing in the field of participatory foresight. We can conclude that the cycles of deductive and inductive logic are needed in science and in participatory foresight studies. Experts of the FTA community must have a higher level of methodological know-how in this research field and they should use qualitative methods in multi-faceted (external and internal) ways in foresight studies. Still the qualitative parts of many studies are quite monological and these studies can be quite problematic, even confusing. More critical methodological approaches should be taken into serious consideration. As a methodological approach, the principle of triangulation should be used more in the fields of participatory foresight studies and technology foresight.The key focus of this article in the use of qualitative and phenomenological approaches in the fields of FTA and foresight. The aim of this theoretically oriented discussion is to promote the professional use of qualitative methods in foresight and FTA studies. The strength of qualitative analyses is linked to deeper understanding of social change and social patterns and structures. Actually people create and constitute the markets, networks, and crowds where technologies are applied and used.Internal systemic understanding of social realities is an important part of foresight activities, especially in participatory foresight studies. Internal and external analyses can be seen as complementary approaches, like qualitative and quantitative approaches. The use of qualitative methods is a conventional part of the research process in participatory foresight projects. A typical problem may be that the use of methods is not planned carefully enough and people are unaware of the underlying key assumptions of applied methods. Experimenting with phenomenology is not a simple task in foresight research. Therefore, the views and informative platforms expressed and presented in this article may be useful for foresight practitioners.     

公司治理与社会责任:被动回应还是主动嵌入

随着社会责任理论与实践的发展,将社会责任落实到公司治理机制中已是大势所趋,然而传统以委托代理关系为核心的公司治理理论体系无法为二者的融合提供坚实理论基础,导致实践中表现为公司治理对社会责任的 "被动回应"。在价值创造导向下重新审视公司治理理论体系,可以突破委托代理关系为核心的局限,将公司治理界定为服务于企业价值创造目标的制度安排,而在价值创造过程中,企业社会责任又是一种日益重要的因素,因此,公司治理与社会责任之间便具有了严格的内在逻辑关系,公司治理应将社会责任 "内生嵌入"于其理论和实践体系中。