房地产企业融资风险因素识别与评价

针对房地产企业发展现状,着重研究房地产企业的融资风险,从企业内部和外部两个层面入手,选取相应的2个一级指标和8个二级指标,构建风险评价指标体系;通过AHP法和模糊综合评价法对房地产企业融资风险进行有效的综合评价,以安徽省某房地产企业为例,通过实证分析以验证模型的有效性,最后根据对房地产企业融资风险的分析给出防范策略.     

黑龙江省装备制造业服务化转型风险评价研究

风险评价是风险管理的重要内容。本文以黑龙江省装备制造业服务化转型风险为研究对象,设计针对其服务化研发、制造、营销三个主要环节的风险评价指标体系,采用AHP-模糊综合评价法,通过专家意见法集结,建立三角模糊数风险评价系统,对该省装备制造业服务化风险的情况进行实证研究。结果表明,该省装备制造业服务化总体风险等级处于中等偏高水平,其中,服务化研发风险略高于服务化制造和营销风险,并对各个风险因素评价结果进行排序,为该省风险应对措施提供依据和参考。     

城市供水投资项目社会评价

探讨城市供水投资项目社会评价的意义,结合城市供水投资项目的特点,构建城市供水投资项目社会评价指标体系。采用层次分析法与模糊综合评价理论建立城市供水投资项目社会评价模型,并且通过有无项目对比下的模糊综合评价进行实证分析。结果表明,有项目的综合社会评价较好,城市供水投资项目的社会效益较高。     

我国粮食企业风险承受能力的模糊综合评价研究

粮食购销体制市场化改革后,农业政策性银行按企业的实际风险承受能力提供贷款支持。如何对企业风险承受能力进行科学评价,是银行面临的一个重要课题。本文引入多级模糊综合评判方法,将粮食企业风险承受能力分解为经营能力、管理能力、还债能力、担保能力和法人素质5个方面共17项评价指标,通过建立综合评价模型,对此问题加以研究。     

企业绿色竞争力及评价体系构建探讨--以农业类上市公司为例

本文运用AHP法和模糊综合评价的方法，探讨了企业绿色竞争力评价模型的构建，并据此选取了全国26家农业类上市公司为案例进行了实证分析，最后基于评价模型给出了提升企业绿色竞争力的对策建议。     

林业企业核心能力的模糊综合评价

通过林业企业核心能力的分析,提出评价林业企业核心能力的指标体系,采用模糊集合论与层次分析法相结合的思路,建立林业企业核心能力的模糊综合评价模型并进行实证研究。     

简述渔业投资项目经济效益评价的电算化

随着计算机的普及应用，渔业投资项目经济效益评价电算化问题越来越引起人们的关注。本文根据渔业投资项目的经济效益评价指标和效益分析评价方法，通过实例介绍应用Excel制作现金流量表及其电算过程的具体操作，为渔业投资项目的经济效益评价提供了较好的电算化方法，对项目投资风险评价与决策具有一定的实用价值。     

森工企业现代管理能力模糊综合评价——基于龙江森工与吉林森工的对比研究

通过对比黑龙江省森工企业与已经完成改革转制的吉林森工的组织管理现状,从企业创新水平、职能管理水平等方面构建了森工企业现代管理能力评价指标体系,以及森工企业现代管理能力的模糊综合评价模型,进行实证分析,分别得到黑龙江省森工企业与吉林森工集团现代管理能力的综合评估值,从具体指标层面找出黑龙江省森工企业组织管理的不足和差距,客观分析原因,并给出合理建议。     

黄土高原生态旅游资源评价指标的构建及实证研究

以层次分析法、模糊综合评判法构建了黄土高原生态旅游资源综合评价指标和模型,结果表明:黄土高原生态旅游资源的美学观赏价值、民俗价值、科考价值、生态教育价值等指标权重较大.结合山西省中阳县进行了实证分析,对该县生态旅游资源进行了定量评价,并提出了相应的开发策略.     

企业管理视角下的海上溢油事故风险评估研究

海洋溢油事故按其成因可分为自然因素和人为因素两大类,以企业管理为研究切入点,通过调查问卷和专家咨询等方法将海洋石油企业生产管理工作中存在的人为因素分为组织管理层和生产操作层两类评价指标,按指标间的隶属关系逐级细化为管理者的应急处置能力、管理监督能力、沟通协调能力和生产操作者的学历程度、从业时间和创新能力等17个单项指标,以此构建了海洋石油企业溢油风险递阶指标体系。利用基于层次分析法的模糊综合评价方法对导致溢油事故的人为因素建模分析,分析结果将各评价指标的风险等级进行量化,便于企业根据风险等级及时排查安全隐患,以期降低企业溢油风险,确保海洋石油生产工作安全进行。     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

The Effect of the Structural Adjustment Program on the Output,Prices and Exports of Major Agricultural Export Crops in Nigeria

The primary objective of this paper is to examine changes in the level of output, prices and exports of major export crops resulting from the Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) in Nigeria. THere two main sources of data: the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) through its annual reports, Economic and Financial Review, and the Nigerian Federal Office of Statistics (FOS) through its Trade Summaries. Although the SAP led to appreciable increases in output and producer prices, its effects on exports were insignificant. The implications of these for the implementation of the program are explored.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

土地学科的建设和发展——"土地学科发展规划研讨会"综述

中国土地科学学科发展已取得很大成就,表现为专业教育和人才培养成绩突出、初步形成学科体系、取得大批研究成果.而存在的问题主要是基础理论研究欠缺、独特的土地科学研究方法体系尚未形成、研究角度单一、学术交流质量不高和学科带头人的影响力不足.土地科学学科发展目前面临着巨大的机遇和挑战,应明确土地科学学科发展的基本思路、发展目标及2010-2020年的主要建设任务和保障措施.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Revealing different understandings of soil held by scientists and farmers in the context of soil protection and management

This paper aims to analyse and draw together results from similar studies in England, Switzerland and France which investigated farmers’ understanding of soil and compared it with that of scientists, researchers and advisors (collectively called scientists in this analysis). A range of methods were used across the three studies and different theoretical approaches, looking at forms of knowledge, local practice of knowledge production and conceptions of reality, were employed to explain the results. Despite the different contexts, methodologies and theoretical approaches in the three studies, the results reveal similar patterns of difference in farmer and scientist understanding of soil. In the English study, farmers demonstrate a ‘know-how’ form or intuitive working knowledge of soil while advisors rely on scientifically established forms of ‘know-why’ and seek to understand and explain soil processes. Similarly in the Swiss study farmers’ and scientists’ differing perceptions are directed and shaped by their respective aims, methods and context of work. In the French study, farmers and researchers are shown to have different conceptions of soil, they attribute different meaning to the same activities, and use different words and language to describe the same features. In all three studies understanding is shown to be cultural and contextual, as such an integrative theoretical framework is proposed.     

森林生物多样性评价模型的改进

针对2002年的评价模型中的不足,提出了新的改进后的森林生物多样性变化的评价模型,并在我国第六次森林资源清查(1999～2003)资料的基础上,对1973～2003年我国森林生物多样性的变化进行了补充评价。评价结果表明:我国森林生物多样性的压力越来越大,压力指数由1973年的100,上升到2003年的199.10,上升了1.99倍;森林物种多样性总体的下降趋势已有一定幅度的改变,森林物种多样性指数增加了31.12%。森林生态系统多样性和森林生物多样性先逐渐上升,尔后又下降,第六次森林资源清查时又有所恢复,并分别上升了4.67个百分点和17.90个百分点。     

Evaluating Alternative Policy Responses to Higher World Food Prices: The Case of Increasing Rice Prices in Madagascar

Higher world food prices have led many developing countries to adopt policies to mitigate the impact on low-income households. This article sets out a partial equilibrium framework to evaluate the efficiency, distributional, and revenue implications of alternative policy responses. The model is applied to evaluate tariff reductions and targeted transfers in Madagascar. Although lowering tariffs generates substantial efficiency gains, these accrue mainly to the top half of the welfare distribution, and poor net sellers are actually worse off. Developing a system of targeted direct transfers to poor households is likely to be a substantially more cost-effective approach to poverty alleviation.     

转变地质工作发展与服务方式的实践和建议

天津市地矿局注重加快转变经济发展方式,发挥地质工作优势,推进低碳清洁能源的开发利用创新和技术进步,紧紧依托地质工作的人才、技术和行业优势,加大清洁环保资源的勘查、研究、开发、利用。针对天津市水资源缺乏的情况,积极加强后备和应紧水源勘查。按照“两种资源,两个市场”的思路,通过实施中外合作勘查项目,以境外勘查工作为载体和平台,实施引进来和走出去战略,为天津市经济社会发展提供地质技术支撑。