企业价值管理评价体系框架研究

当今企业应将企业价值最大化作为经营管理的目标,实施价值管理.通过比较分析传统的价值管理工具方法、经济增加值及平衡记分卡的优劣势,笔者认为,后两者适宜作为企业价值管理评价方法,并且二者存在高度互补性,可以在整合的基础上构建企业价值管理评价体系框架.这一做法有助于企业的价值提升和价值创造.     

包容型氛围对员工创造力的跨层次影响研究

由于管理多样性发展，促使包容型氛围日益受到重视，但目前还缺少包容型氛围与员工创造力的相关研究。基于社会交换视角，构建以知识共享为中介变量的包容型氛围对员工创造力跨层次影响模型，以厘清包容型氛围对员工创造力的作用路径。通过对福建、广东、上海、北京等省市113个团队380名员工进行调查，运用跨层次线性模型方法实证分析包容型氛围与员工创造力间的关系，以及知识共享在二者间的中介作用。结果表明：①包容型氛围对员工创造力不存在直接效应；②包容型氛围跨层次正向影响知识共享；③知识共享在包容型氛围与员工创造力间起中介作用。在此基础上，提出企业应搭建建言献策平台，构建人力资源公平系统、决策信息整合机制及知识共享平台等，为企业提升员工创造力提供理论借鉴。〖JP〗     

Exploring the potential value of improved care for secondary hyperparathyroidism with a novel calcimimetic therapy

Aims: This study explored the use of a value-based pricing approach for the new calcimimetic etelcalcetide indicated for the treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) in patients receiving hemodialysis. It used the US payer perspective and applied the cost-effectiveness framework. Because etelcalcetide is an intravenous therapy that can be titrated for individual patients, and because its utilization is yet to be assessed in real world settings, a range of plausible doses were estimated for etelcalcetide to define a range of prices. These were either in relation to the existing oral calcimimetic cinacalcet or compared to no calcimimetic treatment.

Materials and methods: The value-based price of etelcalcetide was determined via a Markov model. This model combined data from the etelcalcetide trials and previously published cost-effectiveness models in SHPT, and allowed extrapolation of treatment effects on mortality, cardiovascular events, fracture, and parathyroidectomy. Several dosing scenarios were explored covering the dose ranges of 30.0–64.18?mg per day for cinacalcet and 1.07–3.11?mg per day for etelcalcetide. These included the mean dose from the etelcalcetide trials, the preliminary defined daily dose, and the expected most common dose in real world. An acceptable price range for etelcalcetide was assessed by comparing the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios obtained with the willingness-to-pay threshold range of $100,000–$300,000/quality-adjusted life-years.

Results: Cost-effectiveness analysis supported value-based prices for etelcalcetide ranging from $21.15–$49.97/mg vs cinacalcet, and $13.79–$119.45/mg vs no calcimimetics.

Limitations: There is uncertainty around what the real-world dosing will be for etelcalcetide. Another important nuance is that no studies have examined etelcalcetide effects on hard outcomes and, therefore, this modeling exercise relied on an extrapolation approach.

Conclusions: This cost-effectiveness analysis, including scenarios to address uncertainties, allowed estimation of a value-based price range to aid reimbursement decisions in the US.     

The art of long-term thinking: A bridge between sustainability science and politics

Policy makers are dependent upon scientific knowledge. However, scientific results cannot be applied straightforwardly in practical decision making. We deploy Kant's term “power of judgment” – the human capacity to apply general insights to specific, contingent situations – to show that this problem is systematic rather than coincidental: decision making requires the power of judgment to make use of scientific knowledge. Power of judgment, in turns, can be supported by heuristics. Against this background, we focus on sustainability politics and outline a heuristic for framing and analyzing sustainability problems. Because time is a key factor in relation to sustainability we distinguish three distinct concepts of time and argue that the economic concepts of “stocks” and “institutions” can be used to foster power of judgment with respect to these time concepts. Based on these concepts, the heuristic serves to bridge the gap between scientific knowledge and practical decision making in sustainability politics.     

企业成长理论中资源观与能力论的反思

在彭罗斯的企业成长理论中,存在一个“资源——能力”的二分法分析框架,这既为后来的竞争优势理论确立了基本的研究方向,又造成了竞争优势理论的分歧。实际上,企业的资源与能力是统一的,从客体的角度看是资源,从主体的方面看则是能力。作为企业成长关键的企业能力是企业知识的外在表现,企业知识的质量与数量决定了企业能力的高低。企业根据其拥有的知识识别资源的用途与使用方式,确定企业成长的方向。企业的知识既决定了企业的性质,也决定了企业的边界,是企业成长的源泉。     

Interdependence and spillovers: is firm performance affected by others’ innovation activities?

The creation of new knowledge is a case in which agents' behaviour can affect the performance of other actors positively, given that new knowledge creates positive externalities in the market. In this context, we investigate the existence of performance spillovers associated with innovation activities by quantifying the innovation produced in surrounding firms and controlling for the fact that a firm is itself an innovation producer. We use data from the Third Community Innovation Survey (CIS III) that measures innovation in a broad way, not reducing it to R&D and patents, which departs from previous literature on spillovers. Furthermore, to tackle the endogeneity of the innovation variables on the firm production decision, we resort to the firm intellectual property protection methods as an instrument. We found a positive spillover of innovation on firm value added. The results also show that process innovation spillovers are more prevalent than product innovation spillovers.     

Willingness to pay for publicly-financed health care: how should we use the numbers?

This paper addresses the question of how willingness to pay (WTP) values in health care evaluation can be used by policy makers. The way in which WTP values are used depends on from whom values are elicited and whether the good concerned is privately-financed or publicly-financed through taxation. Thus, four possible uses of WTP values are identified. The focus is on the two uses which arise in the publiclyfinanced situation. ‘Conventional’ use of WTP values, where the decision as to whether or not to provide a service depends upon whether or not WTP values are greater than total cost, applies only in the privately-financed, and not publiclyfinanced situations. The situations with publicly-financed goods are more complex. The use of WTP values for publicly-financed goods is justified and illustrated.     

The perception of technological risks: A literature review

In response to rising concern about technological risks, a concerted effort is being made to improve risk analysis methods and risk management approaches. As part of this effort, behavioral and social scientists have produced a substantial body of knowledge of value to risk analysts and decision makers. This paper focuses on behavioral and social science studies of human intellectual limitations in thinking about the risks, factors influencing risk attitudes and perceptions, and factors contributing to social conflicts and disputes about technological activities. A basic assumption of the paper is that analysts and decision makers can benefit from a better understanding of how experts and nonexperts think and make decisions about technological risks. Without such understanding, well-intended policies may be ineffective or even counterproductive.     

风电场风速预测的不确定性研究

风速预测的超前性导致其预测结果是不确定的,传统的确定性风速预测只提供确切的数值,不能满足电网规划的要求。分析了风速预测结果不确定性影响因素,并在确定性预测结果的基础上,从条件概率和预测误差分布统计规律两个角度对预测概率和置信区间进行分析和计算。仿真试验表明该方法能够为决策者提供概率预测信息,具有一定的实用性和有效性。     

知识隐藏的发展逻辑：一个文献综述

知识隐藏是一种由特定前因变量触发并对员工工作行为、团队绩效和组织长期发展构成威胁的知识行为。鉴于此,依托“触发条件—影响机制—弱化机理”分析框架,以知识隐藏国内外文献为研究对象,运用文献计量与归纳相结合的研究方法,界定知识隐藏概念并厘清知识隐藏测量手段及其维度,从员工个体、组织情境、知识特性3个视角对知识隐藏触发条件进行梳理,揭示知识隐藏对个体工作、任务和组织绩效的影响机制,阐述现有国内外文献对知识隐藏弱化机理的研究并对国内知识隐藏研究提出5条发展路径,对于深入研究知识隐藏相关理论具有一定借鉴意义。     

财政收入最大化与地方政府地价竞争

本文借鉴制度经济学研究方法,将中央政府的若干治理手段嵌入到地方政府地价决定函数中,对财政收入最大化与地方政府地价竞争的治理策略做比较制度分析。本文认为,地方政府在地价决定中具有产业间边际财政总收入均等化的动机,适度提高农地征收价格以及服务业税负,有助于压缩地方政府的恶性竞争空间。产业性税收优惠政策可能只对那些租赁而不是持有地产的经营者才有效,可以考虑适度增加住宅所有者的税负来实现“增税降费”的财政收入结构调整,同时继续维持对营业场所以租赁为主的知识密集型服务业的税收优惠。     

知识管理在直觉决策中的作用

在管理领域,直觉相对于逻辑思维所具有的系统整体性、创造性和快速简捷性等若干特质,使得它的作用不可忽视,甚至成为决定性因素.从知识角度看来,直觉决策是一个知识获取、运用和创新的过程.知识管理作为一种创新管理模式,是解决决策与知识匹配的有力工具.文章在分析了知识管理与直觉决策内在统一性的基础上,从修正直觉决策偏差、弥补知识缺口和提高决策效率三个方面研究了知识管理在直觉决策中的作用.决策主体在了解直觉并拥有正确的直觉观后,就应顺应知识管理的核心要求,充分利用直觉决策.本文研究的目的在于从知识管理视角因势利导直觉决策过程中的倾向与特征,为直觉决策从无意识的习惯转变为有意识的行动,提供理论与实践依据.     

教育背景与我国家庭股票市场参与*——基于CFPS微观数据的实证分析

本文基于中国家庭追踪调查（China family panel studies，CFPS）的数据，针对股市上典型的“有限参与”现象，考察了教育背景在两个维度上对家庭股市参与概率的影响。通过Logit回归，本文发现：平均受教育年限越高及拥有专业背景的家庭，参与股市概率越大。进一步运用倾向性得分匹配法对专业背景的作用进行估计，本文发现：在家庭股票投资决策中，成员经管背景作用的大小与显著性受所在家庭整体教育水平的约束。主事者的决策地位随家庭整体受教育年限的提高而受到削弱，而家庭成员对金融知识的掌握也可能会因自身学历在家中占优与否相应地被高估或低估。基于研究结论与现实，笔者认为，在我国证券市场中，平均受教育年限越高的家庭共同决策的氛围更浓，一方面，学历更高与投资知识更专业的成员可能并不在金融参与决策上起支配作用，但另一方面，家庭也会因为某些成员的教育背景做出轻率的投资决定。针对教育背景伴随的欠理性投资行为以及完成“有限参与”向“积极参与”的转变，本文也提供了一些建议与意见。     

网络镶嵌激励创新驱动的知识与权力效应——来自256家在孵企业的实证

在知识经济与大数据智库联耦时代，我国正经历第四波“大众创业、万众创新”浪潮，深挖创新驱动的影响因素与过程效应，是培育打造高水平科研创新团队的重中之重。以我国高新技术企业科研团队为研究对象，基于知识螺旋与网络权力视角，针对我国16个省市高新技术制造领域的256家孵化企业开展实地考察和问卷调研，采用结构方程模型进行实证分析，检验网络镶嵌（关系镶嵌与结构镶嵌）—知识螺旋/网络权力—创新驱动的逻辑路径和影响机理。研究结果表明：网络镶嵌（关系镶嵌与结构镶嵌）显著正向影响创新驱动和知识螺旋；知识螺旋显著正向影响创新驱动，同时在网络镶嵌（关系镶嵌与结构镶嵌）对创新驱动的影响路径中发挥中介效应；网络权力正向调节知识螺旋的中介效应。     

制造企业服务化初期战略转型模型设计

在分析战略转型构成要素基础上,构建制造企业服务化战略转型要素体系,提出服务化初期战略转型模型架构,从价值主张维度提出构建制造企业服务化项目矩阵、可行矩阵,确定项目优先序,以及动态更新的具体流程和方法;从人力、知识、信息、组织资源等维度提出跨部门人员合作、知识搜集与利用、信息软硬实力提升及综合服务能力优化等转型管理方法,以及各要素相互促进的制造企业服务化初期战略转型模型,为处于服务化转型初期阶段的制造企业提供有效的方法借鉴与决策参考。     

Measuring Stigma: The Behavioral Implications of Disgust

Stigmatization of products and technologies can lead to large monetary losses even when there are no associative risks. This paper reports on experiments that provide insight into the behavioral responses of disgust from an economic perspective. We use a dead sterilized cockroach to ‘contaminate’ drinking water and generate willingness-to-pay (WTP) and willingness-to-accept (WTA) measures of participants’ reactions. These results are contrary to previous results from research not involving financial incentives, as most participants’ WTP and WTA values are near zero for drinking cockroach contaminated water. Additionally, filtration of cockroach water leads participants to become significantly more likely to request compensation compared to spring water, but it does not result in requesting significantly more money to drink it. Finally, WTP and WTA differences can be explained by participants’ decision on whether or not to request compensation and not by the amount of compensation.     

Box-Jenkins Methoden — Alternative Verfahren zur Prognose ökonomischer Zeitreihen

Summary In this paper we try to clarify whether the use ofBox-Jenkins methods would have improved the forecasting performance in Austria during the recession of 1975. For this purpose we estimate ARIMA models for gross national product, private consumption, investment in plant and equipment, and inventory investment. We then compare the forecasts derived from these models with the results of more convential forecasting techniques. It can not be expected that Box-Jenkins methods predict a business cycle turning point. But, as soon as the recession was under way Box-Jenkins methods were faster in adapting to the new situation than conventional forecasting techniques. We found that the accuracy of Box-Jenkins predictions depends to a large extent on the length of the forecasting horizon. Our results suggest that the forecasting horizon should not exceed one year. All in all, Box-Jenkins methods applied together with the forecasting techniques already in use could further improve the forecasting performance.     

关系嵌入、知识获取与BOP市场导向的产品创新：内外部不确定性的调节作用

在主流市场日趋饱和的背景下，更多企业将目光聚焦于金字塔底层市场。基于权变视角，探索企业在BOP跨部门合作网络中，双边关系耦合与网络嵌入交互构建的双环协同机制如何影响企业外部知识攫取，进而作用于BOP市场导向的产品创新。采用大样本问卷调查，收集396家电动自行车企业数据，利用多元回归分析对研究假设进行实证检验。研究表明，跨层级嵌入双环协同机制与知识获取呈倒U型关系，高外部不确定性会增强该倒U型关系，但高内部不确定性对该倒U型关系无显著影响；通过知识获取的部分中介传导效应，最终跨层级嵌入双环协同与BOP产品创新呈倒U型关系。结论对企业把控BOP网络嵌入程度、优化网络配置及网络治理具有一定指导意义。     

The recreational value of coral reefs: A meta-analysis

Coral reefs are highly productive ecosystems that provide a variety of valuable goods and services, including recreational opportunities. The open-access nature and public good characteristics of coral reefs often result in them being undervalued in decision making related to their use and conservation. In response to this, there now exists a substantial economic valuation literature on coral reefs. For the purposes of conducting a meta-analysis of this literature, we collected 166 coral reef valuation studies, 52 of which provided sufficient information for a statistical meta-analysis, yielding 100 separate value observations in total. Focusing on recreational values, we use US$ per visit as the dependent variable in our meta-analysis. The meta-regression results reveal a number of important factors in explaining variation in coral reef recreational values, notably the area of dive sites and the number of visitors. Different valuation methods are shown to produce widely different values, with the contingent valuation method producing significantly lower value estimates. Using a multi-level modelling approach we also control for authorship effects, which proves to be highly significant in explaining variation in value estimates. We assess the prospects for using this analysis for out-of-sample value transfer, and find average transfer errors of 186%. We conclude that there is a need for further high-quality valuation research on coral reefs.     

偏好反转对协同知识创新决策的影响

基于协同知识创新决策风险性,引入行为经济学偏好反转理论,从知识积累视角构建偏好反转影响下的知识创新模型。将协同知识创新决策从单纯的选择决策拓展为选择/放弃决策,在不同决策背景下对模型进行演算。结果发现,当协作方对创新资源投入分摊比例较低时,主体对未来收益的不确定性预期较低,而在偏好反转的影响下,放弃决策对预期收益的退出定价可能较高,从而使背离放弃决策相比进入选择决策更有利于协同创新。研究结论解释了当前较多的协同知识创新联盟尽管没有实现科技政策调整的预期效果,但未大规模解体且力趋稳定合作的现象。