Determinants of cross‐border bank acquisitions in transition economies1

We analyse the microeconomic determinants of cross‐border bank acquisitions in 11 transition economies over the period 1992–2006. We find that foreign banks target relatively large and efficient banks when they enter transition economies with weak institutions. This evidence provides support for the ‘market power’ hypothesis. However, when foreign banks enter more developed transition economies that have made progress in economic reform, they acquire less efficient banks. This result is in line with the efficiency hypothesis. We use a multilevel mixed effects logit model that allows us to explicitly incorporate the macroeconomic and institutional heterogeneity of the transition economies into our analysis.     

中国跨国公司在企业国际化过程中的外国市场选择与进入模式

基于中国跨国公司的崛起，它们如何在外国市场选择与进入模式方面作出决策需要系统研究。通过对中国制造企业的调查，我们发现它们的外国市场选择及进入模式战略在不同的对外，直接投资（FDI）的经营模式中存在着显著差异。发达经济体及发展中国家都是中国企业出口的重要市场，同时这些企业更倾向于在发达经济体中投资于营销、生产及研发领域。本研究结论对理解新兴市场跨国公司的海外市场选择和进入模式有重要启示。     

中国对外直接投资的政策动因——一个新的实证研究

全球外国直接投资在世界范围内遭受到经济和金融危机的严重影响。危机改变了外国直接投资的格局：对发展中经济体和转型期经济体的投资骤增;流入发达国家的外国直接投资同期大幅度下降。同时中国对外直接投资强劲增长,成功地成为对外直接投资的重要来源。与全球外国直接投资整体下滑之势相反,中国对外直接投资呈现出逆势增长的趋势。因此有必要从宏观经济的角度对中国对外直接投资的动因进行探讨。本文从理论和实证两个角度分析中国对外直接投资的动因,认为国民生产总值、出口、对矿产和能源进口需求、外汇储备和中国对外直接投资额之间存在长期稳定的关系,其中国家政策的影响显著,中国对外直接投资会随着对矿产和能源进口需求和外汇储备的增加而增加。     

Capital markets and capital allocation: Implications for economies in transition*

Recent work showing that a sounder financial system is associated with faster economic growth has important implications for transition economies. Stock prices in developed economies move in highly firm‐specific ways that convey information about changes in firms’ marginal value of investment. This information facilitates the rapid flow of capital to its highest value uses. In contrast, stock prices in low‐income countries tend to move up and down en masse, and thus are of scant use for microeconomic capital allocation. Some transition economy markets are coming to resemble those of developed economies, others those of low‐income countries. Stock return asynchronicity is highly correlated with the strength of private property rights in general and public shareholders’ rights in particular. Other recent work suggests that small entrenched elites in low‐income countries preserve their sweeping control over the corporate sectors of their economies by using political influence to undermine the financial system and deprive entrants of capital. The lack of cross‐sectional independence in some transition economies’ stock returns may be a warning of such economic entrenchment. Sound property rights, solid shareholder rights, stock market transparency, and capital account openness appear to check this, and thus contribute to efficient capital allocation and economic growth.     

The behaviour of Russian industrial enterprises under transformation

Regional economic growth in Russia's regions in 1995–2000 is analysed with particular attention paid to FDI and how it influenced growth during this period. FDI appears to have been essential before the 1998 crisis in helping the economy grow despite the initial chaos of the transition. Larger regional economies that have garnered most FDI and perhaps gone further with institutional reforms that can assist in capturing the full benefits of FDI are likely to lead economic growth in the future. All regions need to take advantage now of the favourable economic environment to assess and learn from prior FDI experience to foster future growth should the price of oil and the remaining advantage of a depreciated currency change. No evidence was found that region-wide corruption hindered economic growth in the 1990s.     

The co‐development of economies and institutions

In this study, we model the Schumpeterian growth theory in a simple discrete‐time framework in which both economies and institutions need to be developed. Individuals need to borrow from an imperfect financial market to develop an economy. A government can adopt two potential strategies for improving the borrowing capacity of individuals and, as a result, enhancing economic performance: ‘the rule of law’ and ‘industrial policies’. We interpret market‐oriented reform in transition economies as a shift from ‘industrial policies’, exemplified at the extreme by the traditional planned economy, to ‘the rule of law’. The presented model shows that both strategies could be the best choice at different stages of development.     

How does immigration affect modes of foreign market access: trade and FDI?

This article presents a study of the effects of immigration on trade and FDI. Our analysis is distinct from previous work because it systematically examines the interactions between immigration, trade and FDI. Previous studies treated FDI–immigration relationships as being independent of the modes of foreign market access. Using bilateral data of Japan and 28 other economies for the period 1996–2011, our analysis shows that FDI inflows become more dominant compared to imports when skilled immigration flows increase and less dominant when unskilled immigration flows increase. The results suggest that the relevant policy instruments as regards the promotion of trade, FDI and immigration should vary depending on economic goals, such as current account balances and labour shortages.     

Manufacturing FDI and economic growth: evidence from Asian economies

Previous empirical studies on inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth generate mixed results. This article suggests that the ambiguous results might be caused by the use of total FDI. We study the heterogeneous effects of different sector-level FDI inflows on host country's economic growth. Data from 12 Asian economies over the period of 1987 to 1997 are employed. Strong evidence shows that FDI in manufacturing sector has a significant and positive effect on economic growth in the host economies. FDI inflows in nonmanufacturing sectors do not play a significant role in enhancing economic growth. Furthermore, without the decomposition of total FDI inflows, the effect of manufacturing FDI on host country's economic growth is understated by at least 48%.     

ICT效应下外商直接投资、经济增长与能源消耗 ---基于半参数空间向量自回归模型的研究

基于中国30个省份面板数据,通过构建半参数空间向量自回归模型（SSPVAR）,利用时空脉冲响应函数、偏导图探讨了经济增长、能源消耗及外商直接投资的时空传导效应与信息与通讯技术（ICT）非线性的影响作用。研究结果显示：外商直接投资、经济增长及能耗强度受到彼此冲击后的响应较为明显;能耗强度具有自强化效应,空间溢出作用促进了周边省份经济发展,短期内不利于其外资引入,但长期却能提高外资利用。经济发展产生不可持续的自身累积效应,与单位产值能耗走在了“U”的上行区,但却对邻近区域产生了积极的正向溢出。外资长期利好效应凸显,发挥经济发展和能源节约的促进作用;短期内却抑制经济发展,强化能耗度,更无法发挥“示范”效应吸引更大规模的外资流入。ICT具有正向的节能、增产和引流效应,分别以倒V和V型形态推进,但是发展的初级阶段却没有任何影响作用。加速ICT应用,智能化和信息化商业、生产模式转型将有助于更少能耗的经济高质量发展。     

外商直接投资、对外贸易与环境污染的实证研究

文章通过中国30个省(市、区)2000-2005年面板数据,对FDI与外贸的环境污染效应进行了实证分析.对外贸易与FDI整体上都促进了中国经济增长,其中,进口对经济增长的作用较小;出口与FDI加剧了中国环境污染;进口贸易可抑制环境污染,但作用比较小;人力资本具有显著的促进经济增长与抑制环境污染的双重功能.本文的政策建议是,调整出口与引资政策,发展教育,促进人力资本积累.     

How important is employment protection legislation for Foreign Direct Investment flows in Central and Eastern European countries?1

In this article we investigate empirically the importance of labour market conditions and in particular the role of employment protection legislation as determinants of bilateral Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). We find that FDI flows are significantly higher in countries with relatively low unit labour costs. We also find that employment protection legislation does not exert a statistically significant impact on FDI flows. Our results are consistent with the interpretation that transition economies attract FDI via low production costs whereas indirect costs related to the rigidity of the labour market are less relevant.     

FDI into transition economies

The article explores the determination of foreign direct investment (FDI) into the Balkan transition economies – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia. Detailed FDI inflows to Southeast Europe are analysed to determine the main differences in the volume, timing and sectoral structure of FDI within the region and in comparison to the Central East European countries. A gravity model for all transition economies during 1990–2011 is then estimated to assess whether the factors driving FDI to the Western Balkans are different. They are found to be so; even when the size of their economies, distance from the source economies, institutional quality and prospects of EU membership are taken into account, Western Balkans countries receive less FDI than other transition countries. These issues are of policy relevance for the Balkan economies and ought to contribute to the current debate on the ‘new growth model’.     

中国经济增长、外商直接投资和出口贸易的互动实证分析

本文使用28个省1978年到2000年的面板数据,着重分析出口贸易和外商直接投资对经济表现的影响。使用Petroni的面板单位根数据检验和Arellano及Bond的动态面板数据估计技术,我们发现出口贸易和外商直接投资对经济增长有着重大的正面效应。研究结果表明,其他发展中国家和转轨经济国家可以借鉴中国政府采用的这两种发展政策:推动出口和引入国际水准的技术与商业管理实践。     

地区间接融资的金融市场和外商直接投资的正溢出效应

利用我国各省市1985—2004年面板数据分析FDI在地区经济发展中的贡献差异,结果发现,FDI和经济增长没有必然的正相关关系,但是间接融资市场发展比较好的省市,FDI对当地经济的增长有很明显的正溢出效应。因此,加快地区间接融资市场发展,增强FDI的产业后向关联,对于提高FDI对我国地区经济增长的正溢出效应十分重要。     

FDI, Regional Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth: Some Evidence from Southeast Asia

This empirical study investigates whether FDI caused spillover effects which led to the economic growth of the ASEAN‐5 economies (1970–96), and, if that is so, whether the ASEAN Preferential Trade Agreement (APTA) had a significant effect in attracting FDI to the region. Its findings are that FDI has stimulated economic growth most effectively through human factors, and knowledge/technological learning‐by‐doing effects; and that the formation of the APTA had a lagged influence on FDI inflows to the advantage of the more‐developed member countries, and disadvantage of the less‐developed member countries.     

Welfare effects of competition for FDI between technologically asymmetric countries with varying trade costs

Given the traditional argument that host countries' excessive competition for FDI (foreign direct investment) deteriorates the host countries' welfare, this paper examines the impact of policy competition for FDI on social welfare considering varying trade costs. Based on a model where two technologically asymmetric countries compete for FDI, we determine an equilibrium where a multinational firm relocates to a less efficient country. Moreover, we demonstrate that the policy competition for FDI between less integrated economies might improve social welfare when the multinational firm relocates to a country with a lower technology and a less competitive market. Nonetheless, we show that the traditional argument can be true when the policy competition for FDI between highly integrated economies deteriorates host countries' welfare, as supported by the empirical evidences of moderated competition for FDI within EU member countries.     

FDI Location and the Relevance of Spatial Linkages: Evidence from Provincial and Industry FDI in China

In this study both aggregate and industry‐level foreign direct investment (FDI) data are employed to investigate the spatial dependence of FDI hosts. The analysis contributes to the existing literature by focusing on the heterogeneous spatial correlation of FDI in different industries. Using more comprehensive FDI data across multiple industries and multiple provinces in China from 1999 to 2007, the results show a significant spatial correlation among provinces. Aggregate FDI tends to be regional trade platform oriented indicating neighboring provinces become competitors for FDI. In contrast, results based on industry‐level provincial FDI show stronger support for vertical or complex vertical FDI.     

Do Multinational Enterprises Contribute to Convergence or Divergence? A Disaggregated Analysis of US FDI*

It is widely held that foreign direct investment (FDI) has a positive effect on economic growth. To test this hypothesis, we perform convergence regressions derived from a theoretical model on the impact of FDI on endogenous technological change in small economies. The model includes FDI externalities that enhance growth, but also shows that FDI can crowd out host country income and reduce local innovation. The empirical analysis employs disaggregated US data for various FDI‐related activities—in addition to the conventionally used aggregate FDI stocks and flows. We estimate the net FDI impact on the convergence rate of per‐capita income to US levels, controlling for human development, financial development, and trade. We find that FDI accelerates convergence for high‐income countries only, otherwise slowing it down.     

Productivity Growth and Organizational Learning

A new specification of the sources of productivity growth is offered. Motivated by the lack of innovation and technology adoption in backward economies, a third channel of growth related to organizational structure, work ethics, and discipline in the production process (for simplicity called organizational learning) is suggested. The suggested specification generates new insights about the dominating source of growth during the development process: organizational learning in backward economies, technology adoption in middle‐income economies, and innovation in developed economies. This adds to the current understanding of development as a transition from technology adoption to innovation. Numerical simulations of the Thai catch‐up process since 1965 illustrate the importance of organizational learning. A counterfactual experiment shows how investments in secondary education contribute to the move from organizational learning to adoption of more advanced foreign technology.     

Home country effects of foreign direct investment: From a small economy to a large economy

Previous studies on home country effects mainly focused on FDI from large developed economies to other countries. But today's super recipient is a relatively larger economy than its investors and many of these investors are not classified as “developed economies.” A simple Ak type model implies that a small and more developed country investing in a large and less developed country will experience decreases in both employment and income disparity (compared to the recipient country) as the less-developed recipient country gains the higher technology of production through FDI inflows. The empirical results for the Four Tigers (source countries) and China (recipient country) are consistent with our theoretical model of FDI outflows. We also find that FDI outflows to China decrease the ratio of exports to GDP only for small source countries, even though a higher investment in China raises the share of these countries' exports-to-China to China's total imports.