从金融传导领域分析我国的货币政策传导机制

中央银行的货币政策引起实际经济变量的改变是通过货币政策传导机制实现的。而货币政策的传导机制包括金融传导领域和经济传导领域。其中金融传导是中央银行与金融中介相互影响和相互作用的过程。文章着重通过对金融传导领域中的执行主体、传导中介、市场基础和调节杠杆进行分析,来研究我国的货币政策传导机制。     

金融二元结构与货币政策有效性

金融二元结构的存在是金融管制的必然结果,即正规金融与非正规金融并存。为了研究非正规金融对货币政策有效性的影响,首先利用改进的?值法估测出1994-2012年非正规金融的规模,结果显示,近几年,其已占正规金融规模的1/3左右。在此基础上,利用多种实证计量方法重点分析了非正规金融与货币政策有效性的关系,结果表明:非正规金融与作为货币政策中介目标的货币供给量M2存在长期稳定的协整关系,而且是促进M2扩张的Granger原因;同时,正规金融、货币当局债券发行与其国外资产均对货币供给量M2产生不同程度的影响。金融二元结构的存在造成中央银行无法精确观测和调控货币供给总量,削弱了央行货币政策制定和实施的效果。     

中国人民银行央行票据的可持续性问题分析

自2003年我国中央银行票据开始登上公开市场的舞台,并且逐步发展成为中央银行公开市场操作的主流工具之一。本文主要从央行票据在公开市场操作中的作用、我国流动性过剩、存款准备金等货币政策的局限性和央行票据所承担的新的政策职能的角度来说明因为我国所处特殊经济金融的环境,央行票据作为我国公开市场操作的中长期工具,具有可持续性。最后本文还对完善央行票据制度提出几点政策建议。     

央行利率政策的门限转换特征及国际证据

本文利用亚太地区15个国家1992~2007年的面板数据研究了央行利率政策的门限转换特征。结论认为,通货膨胀对经济增长的影响存在显著的门限特征,各国央行的利率政策也存在显著的门限转换特征。在低通胀阶段,利率没有对经济增长与通货膨胀做出显著响应;但在高通胀阶段,央行首先致力于维护金融稳定,然后促进经济增长。文章对发达国家与发展中国家进行了比较,发现二者的利率政策表现出相似的特征,但发展中国家的利率政策倾向于更高的门限值;文章最后对中国利率政策的实施提出了相关政策建议。     

数量型还是价格型货币政策比较——基于利率市场化角度的分析

利率市场化进程中,数量型还是价格型货币政策合适?文章考虑金融市场上的金融加速器特征,将其引入DSGE模型,通过校准、模拟,从宏观经济波动幅度、不同货币政策下冲击效应以及福利损失函数三方面综合分析了利率市场化过程中数量型和价格型货币政策有效性问题。研究结果显示,随着存款利率的上升,在熨平经济波动方面,价格型货币政策更有优势;在促进经济增长方面,数量型货币政策更有优势;对央行损失而言,价格型货币政策的损失更小。因此,中央银行应根据需要灵活的运用数量型和货币型搭配使用,做好数量型向价格型转变。     

DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS IN MALAWI

This paper sets out to investigate the process through which monetary policy affects economic activity in Malawi. Using innovation accounting in a structural vector autoregressive model, it is established that monetary authorities in Malawi employ hybrid operating procedures and pursue both price stability and high growth and employment objectives. Two operating targets of monetary policy are identified, viz., bank rate and reserve money, and it is demonstrated that the former is a more effective measure of monetary policy than the latter. The study also illustrates that bank lending, exchange rates and aggregate money supply contain important additional information in the transmission process of monetary policy shocks in Malawi. Furthermore, it is shown that the floatation of the Malawi Kwacha in February 1994 had considerable effects on the country's monetary transmission process. In the post‐1994 period, the role of exchange rates became more conspicuous than before although its impact was weakened, and the importance of aggregate money supply and bank lending in transmitting monetary policy impulses was enhanced. Overall, the monetary transmission process evolved from a weak, blurred process to a somewhat strong, less ambiguous mechanism.     

紧缩性货币政策下城市商业银行营销策略

受国内外经济环境共同影响,我国央行将在较长的时间内实行从紧的货币政策,它对城市商业银行的基础货币环境、资金运用、信贷结构以及收入的影响是双重的。城市商业银行应该积极应对,运用差异化营销、关系营销等策略,通过树立品牌效应,积极推进金融产品创新和高级人才培养,消除紧缩性货币政策带来的负面效应。     

Financial Development,Financial Structure,and the Growth Effect of Monetary Policy: International Evidence

This paper investigates how financial development and financial structure affect the growth effect of monetary policy using panel data from 49 countries over the period 1980–2014. We find robust evidence that financial development has a significantly negative impact on the growth effect of monetary policy. We also find that the growth effect of monetary policy tends to be more pronounced as the financial structure of a country becomes more market-based. These results not only add interesting new evidence to the recent literature on the growth effects of monetary policy, but also provide some important insights into the financial determinants of monetary policy effects on economic growth, which have largely been ignored in the previous literature.     

Central Banking in a Democratic Society

This Tinbergen lecture addresses two issues. The first concerns the principles of monetary policy in a low-inflation environment. The second, more fundamental, issue concerns the institutional arrangements by which monetary policy is set in a democratic society. Three conclusions are drawn: (1) Monetary policy matters. Despite some major mistakes, American postwar economic policy has led to far greater stability of the economy. (2) Strategies of opportunistic disinflation or pre-emptive strikes are based on hypotheses for which there is little empirical support. An alternative strategy, called cautious expansionism, would be preferable. (3) A central bank must be accountable and sensitive to democratic processes; there must be more democracy in the choice of decision makers and more representativeness in the governance structure.     

LOUD AND CLEAR? CAN WE HEAR WHEN THE SARB SPEAKS?

Inflation targeting is a forward‐looking framework for monetary policy that has brought unprecedented transparency to the process of monetary policy. This paper aims to assess the degree to which the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has, since the introduction of inflation targeting, successfully communicated to the public its policy analysis, and, in particular, the expected future policy changes. It follows international literature in constructing a numerical index that is used to reflect the information content of the SARB's communications, specifically the monetary policy statements that accompanied each of the MPC meetings since 2000. This method allows us to judge, systematically, the degree to which the MPC has communicated successfully, and the evolution of that success over the past nine years. We find evidence that the MPC has succeeded in signalling their likely future policy decision with consistency over this period.     

资产价格在货币政策传导中的作用

文章对资产价格在货币政策传导中的作用进行实证研究，结果表明，我国同时存在着从中央银行到资产价格的高效传导和从资产价格到实体经济的低效传导，资产价格的波动损害了货币政策的传导效率以及金融体系的稳定性。在这种情况下，我国中央银行不应把资产价格纳入货币政策的最终目标，而应适时和适度地对资产价格作出反应。     

货币从紧政策下央行票据的货币调控效果探析

我国目前的货币政策工具中占主要地位的是央行票据。它的发行引起了社会的广泛关注。它代表了中央银行对目前宏观经济的调控方向。本文从它收缩市场上流动货币的能力及它与各项经济指标的关联性入手,分析它在货币政策调控中的效果。     

货币与财政政策后续效应评估:40次银行危机样本

以20世纪80年代以来40次重要的系统性银行危机为基础,对金融危机后的货币政策和财政政策选择进行实证评价。实证结果表明,"适度扩张"的货币政策和财政政策能产生相对较优的经济效果,应成为金融危机后的主要政策选择,但由于两种政策刺激或稳定经济的效力都集中体现在短期,为避免持续和大规模货币扩张和财政赤字带来的负面影响,一旦危机消退、经济企稳回升,之前作为"反危机工具"出现的扩张性货币和财政政策就应该逐步淡出。     

货币政策透明性制度的国际比较:以央行沟通方式为基调

自20世纪90年代末期以来,世界绝大多数央行的货币政策透明性有了显著提高,但是未表现出一致性收敛特征。各国央行的货币政策信息沟通面临着不同程度的现实约束,有的央行在某些方面透明性还非常有限。在央行信息沟通方面还有许多值得研究的策略性、细节性技巧,处理不当就可能损害央行信誉。我国货币政策透明度还处于较低水平,需要进一步提高。     

Equity,Bonds, Institutional Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from South Africa

We examine the finance‐growth nexus in South Africa accounting for the role of bond markets, stock markets, and bank and non‐bank financial intermediaries using a vector autoregressive technique. Extant empirical literature has largely accounted for only banks and stock markets, ignoring bond market and non‐bank financial intermediaries. We find that bond market development affects economic growth in South Africa, and no similar effect is observed for the bank and non‐bank financial intermediaries and the stock market. Our finding shows that examination of individual elements of the financial system is important in understanding the unique effect of each on growth. The observation that the bond market rather than stock market, bank and non‐bank institutions promote economic growth in South Africa induces an intriguing question as to what unique roles bond markets play that the intermediaries and equity market are unable to play.     

The ‘trilemma’ hypothesis and policy implications for Fiji

This paper examines the trilemma constraint for Fiji; that is, we investigate how trilemma policy variables were used to address policy trade‐offs among the three objectives of exchange rate stability, monetary autonomy, and financial openness. Fiji makes an interesting case because of its policy orientation towards a stable exchange rate and adequate foreign reserves. Our results suggest that the trilemma constraint is binding for Fiji and policy priority is given to exchange rate stability and monetary policy independence, while less emphasis is placed on financial market openness. We also find that the actual policy levels do not deviate substantially from optimal levels, which evidences that Fiji's policy management has been efficient under the trilemma constraint. Finally, we also study the effects of various trilemma policy combinations and foreign reserve holdings on output growth and inflation.     

美联储货币政策对中国货币政策的溢出效应研究

文章主要研究了美国货币政策对中国货币政策的溢出效应,理论部分分析了在开放经济条件下两国模型关于货币政策跨国传输等相关问题。货币供给分为国内供给和外部输入,通过中央银行资产负债表中资产负债的变化可以分析外部货币的输入影响到基础货币的被动投放,在流通过程中由于乘数效应影响了货币供给量。外部货币的输入影响央行调控独立性的发挥,外部货币的输入容易形成对国内货币市场和产品市场某种程度的冲击,央行货币政策调控的难度增加。经验分析发现,美元输入对中国货币政策存在溢出效应,影响到中国的基础货币投放,影响到中国的货币政策的独立性以及执行的效果。     

Financial Market Turmoil： Implications for Monetary Policy Transmission in China

The recent financial market turmoil has initiated another search for insightful understanding of the interactions between the financial market and monetary policy. This paper explores these interactions in terms of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in China. We argue that evolving financial development, enhanced by the expansion of the financial market, has altered the conventional channel for monetary transmission in China. Analyzing marked changes in the financial landscape and taking into account policy regime shifts in China, the paper provides clear evidence showing that the financial market has become a new and important channel for transmission of monetary policy in China.     

Measuring Potential Output for the South African Economy: Embedding Information About the Financial Cycle

Borio et al. show that information embedded in the financial cycle can serve to improve measures of potential output and output gaps. They show that incorporating information on the financial cycle yields measures of potential output and output gaps for the United States, United Kingdom and Spain that are estimated more precisely and are more robust in real time. With its well‐developed financial markets and relatively open capital markets, the South African economy is potentially susceptible to the build‐up of the sort of financial imbalances that characterised the recent financial crisis. Using the framework developed in Borio et al., a finance‐neutral measure of the output gap is estimated for South Africa. The traditional Hodrick–Prescott filter is extended to incorporate information on credit and property prices. Including financial cycle proxies result in output gaps that are estimated more precisely and are more robust to data revisions and the arrival of new data points (i.e. estimated output gaps are more robust in real time), while also reflecting the impact of financial variables on economic activity. As such, the estimated finance‐neutral output gap seems to represent a more appropriate measure on which to base monetary policy decisions.     

我国货币政策在陕甘两省的非对称效应研究

本文以陕西省和甘肃省为例,分析了两省经济金融发展存在的差异,运用VAR模型和脉冲响应函数检验了统一的货币政策对陕甘两省的产出水平和物价水平的影响。实证结果表明,一方面,统一的货币政策在陕甘两省存在着较为明显的区域非对称效应,央行在实施货币政策时应该考虑不同省份的差异;另一方面,实证表明,货币政策对陕甘两省产出冲击不明显,因此陕西和甘肃两省应采取措施,促进金融业的发展,以促进本地经济的发展。