Futures research and global change

Futures research must be carried out on the basis of people having the right to choose their own future. There is thus a need, particularly in the developing countries, for the spread of training in futures to those who will themselves be shaping their own future, and this places responsibilities on futures specialists in the developed North. The global value changes underway must also be confronted if futures research is to retain its relevance. A ‘project approach’ is preferred, which embraces both extrapolative and normative futures methodologies.     

Political systems and the financial soundness of Islamic banks

We investigate whether and how political systems affect the financial soundness of conventional and Islamic banks. Using factors extracted from principal component analysis, we find that Islamic banks underperform their conventional counterparts in more democratic political systems but outperform them in hybrid and Sharia’a-based legal systems. The findings reflect the challenges Islamic banks face in Western countries in terms of perception, financial infrastructure, and regulatory constraints while mirroring the recognition of their specificities and their cultural and religious compliance with Sharia’a law in Muslim countries. The findings are robust to a battery of alternative estimation techniques and methods of correcting standard errors.     

Futures and government: Combating the new philistinism

The downgrading of long-term forecasting and planning in the governments of a number of Western countries is traced to the rise of ‘the new philistinism’—blunt myopia and political opportunism—typified by the stance of the Thatcher and Reagan administrations. After a review of the fate of the proposals for an independent European futures unit deriving from the Europe Plus Thirty project, this article calls for another attempt to set up effective Western futures institutions. Not to forecast and not to plan is a use—or rather, a misuse—of government power.     

The transmodern hypothesis: towards a dialogue of cultures

For a Brussels Seminar at the European Commission, a “double hypothesis” was proposed: that we are in transition to a transmodern way of thinking that combines intuition and spirituality with rational brainwork; and that 21st century conflicts will likely be not between religions or cultures but within them, between premodern, modern, and transmodern worldviews. Non-Western thinkers find this framework useful: it opens a door to criticism of the worst aspects of modernity without being “anti-Western”. Western reactions are more mixed, some critics wanting to maintain a high fence between religion and governance, others welcoming the transmodern concept as helpful in relating states to religions, and in analyzing conflicts involving beliefs about belief. “Transmodernity” turns out to be a rich tool of analysis, with important implications for European foreign policy in the century to come.     

The procyclicality of loan loss provisions in Islamic banks

From a sample of Islamic banks around the world from 1997 to 2012, this paper examines whether loan loss provisioning in Islamic banks is procyclical. Our empirical findings highlight that loan loss provisioning in Islamic banks remains procyclical, although the ‘expected’ loan loss model (E-LLM) has been implemented for Islamic banks in several countries. A closer investigation further documents that Islamic banks also use loan loss provisions for discretionary managerial actions, especially related to capital management in which loan loss reserves and provisions are inflated when bank capitalization declines. Eventually, this paper highlights that higher capitalization can mitigate the procyclicality of loan loss provisions in Islamic banks. In other words, loan loss provisioning becomes countercyclical for Islamic banks with higher capitalization. This paper therefore casts doubts on the adoption of the E-LLM for Islamic banks to promote countercyclical effects, because the E-LLM may be influenced by managerial discretion, including opportunistic capital management using loan loss provisions that may undermine the importance of maintaining bank capitalization.     

East meets West: When the Islamic and Gregorian calendars coincide

Recent research has documented that at the time of religious celebrations in Muslim countries, such as Ramadan, there is a “festival” effect in share returns. In the Gregorian calendar, December is also a time of celebration and festivities which may be associated with patterns in the behaviour of security prices. Further, the first month of the year in the Islamic calendar, Muharram, is a time of sadness and mourning for some believers, and there may be an effect when the Islamic first month of the year overlaps with the first month of the Gregorian year - January. Over a 33-year cycle, each Islamic month falls in a Gregorian month for about 5–6 consecutive years; when this happens, an Islamic (Eastern) calendar effect may interact with a Gregorian (Western) calendar effect. The current paper addresses this issue by examining the behaviour of share returns and volatility for individual companies listed in Muslim countries’ stock exchanges when the two calendars coincide for: (i) religious festival effects; (ii) first-month-of-the-year effects; and (iii) the two most common effects reported in the Islamic and Gregorian calendars (Ramadan and January). The results show that the Western and Eastern effects interact more prominently in larger companies and in larger or more developed markets.     

A green future for religion?

In recent decades, debates have erupted and intensified about the relationships between religions, cultures, and the earth’s living systems. Some scholars have argued that ritual and religion can play a salutary role in helping humans regulate natural systems in ecologically sustainable ways. Others have blamed one or more religions, or religion in general, for promoting worldviews and cultures that precipitate environmental damage. Religious production in recent years suggests not only that many religions are becoming more environmentally friendly but also that a kind of civic planetary earth religion may be evolving. Examples of such novel, nature-related religious production allow us to ponder whether, and if so in what ways, the future of religion may be green.     

Development,distribution and the future

The distribution of world output between countries, and between social groups within countries, is central to long-term development prospects. Unequal shares mean unequal influence over the future direction of world affairs. The level and structure of demand are conditioned by the distribution of financial resources; while the power to influence the course of development is itself tied to the resources that can be marshalled in support of one's objectives. Two forecasting techniques, scenario construction and global modelling, are used to assess these relationships and explore the consequences of one possible ‘future history’ in which distribution worldwide does eventually begin to improve. Striking limitations to most development strategies are identified; without a wide-ranging set of changes, the prospects for improved distribution—and relief of poverty—are bleak.     

Sharia supervisory boards,governance structures and operational risk disclosures: Evidence from Islamic banks in MENA countries

This paper examines the impact of Sharia supervisory board (SSB) and governance structures on the extent of operational risk disclosures (ORDs), using a sample of 63 Islamic banks from 10 (i.e., Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the UAE) countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for the fiscal years 2006 to 2013. Drawing on Sharia compliance, Islamic banking and corporate governance literature, our findings are as follows. We find that SSB, block ownership, board independence, and country-level governance quality are statistically significant and positively associated with ORDs. Our results are robust when controlling for several bank- and country-level variables. Our study has implications for policy-makers and regulators in the MENA region with respect to the development and implementation of SSB and governance mechanisms that can improve operational risk disclosures. Finally, the findings highlight the need to enhance current understanding of SSB structures and governance mechanisms that can best help Islamic banks towards engaging in effective compliance with recent governance and accounting reforms.     

Taming animal spirits: risk management with behavioural factors

In several countries a major factor contributing to the current economic crisis was massive borrowing to fund investment projects on the basis of, in retrospect, grossly optimistic valuations. The purpose of this paper is to initiate an approach to project valuation and risk management in which ‘behavioural’ factors—Keynes’ ‘animal spirits’ or Greenspan’s ‘irrational exuberance’—can be explicitly included. An appropriate framework is risk-neutral valuation based on the use of the numéraire portfolio—the ‘benchmark’ approach advocated by Platen and Heath (A benchmark approach to quantitative finance. Springer, Berlin, 2006). In the paper, we start by discussing the ingredients of the problem: ‘animal spirits’, financial instability, market-consistent valuation, the numéraire portfolio and structural models of credit risk. We then study a project finance problem in which a bank lends money to an entrepreneur, collateralized by the value of the latter’s investment project. This contains all the components of our approach in a simple setting and illustrates what steps are required. In a final section, we briefly discuss the econometric problems that need to be solved next.     

The Nature and Rationale of a Conceptual Framework for Financial Reporting by Islamic Banks

Islamic banks have to abide by the revealed doctrines in Islam in conducting their business and financial transactions. They employ in-house religious advisers—often referred to as Shari'a Supervisory Board (SSB)—who issue a special report to inform users of financial statements whether or not the bank has adhered to the Islamic principles. Recently, a private standard-setting body—the Financial Accounting Organization for Islamic Banks and Financial Institutions (FAOIBFI)—has been set up to externally regulate the financial reporting by Islamic banks. The FAOIBFI has published two statements on the objectives and concepts of financial reporting to act as a framework in setting accounting standards for Islamic banks. This paper examines the FAOIBFI's approach for developing objectives and concepts of financial accounting and investigates its need for such a theoretical framework. It is argued that the FAOIBFI's objectives and concepts would not be useful in mandating accounting standards on issues that are affected by religious ruling. This does not necessarily mean that such a framework may not be useful in legitimating the FAOIBFI's role and in setting accounting standards for issues that are not governed by revealed moral doctrines although it will be subject to similar limitations to those found by other standard-setting bodies in utilising and applying their framework. However, it implies that the more the FAOIBFI sets accounting standards that incorporate religious ruling, the less it would tend to find its own objectives and concepts useful. The ambiguities that may arise from different interpretations of the religious rules will require resolutions primarily by reference to religious rather than accounting authority.     

The validity of Islamic art as an investment

This paper investigates the validity of Islamic art as an investment product. We examine the current and future market potential, as well as, performing a hedonic regression analysis on London auction sales from 1998 to 2007. The main findings of the research are; Islamic art returns out performed both the equity and debt markets over the last 10 years; increases in oil prices have a positive effect on art prices, Islamic terrorist attacks on the Western World significantly reduce the value of Islamic art; and that the increase in future buyers means the Islamic art market has the potential to grow very strongly over the coming years. All these indicate the strong potential of this form of art as an investment.     

Evidence of a leadership role in the Chilean stock exchanges

In our study of the two leading stock exchanges in Chile—the Santiago Stock Exchange (SSE) and the Electronic Stock Exchange (ESE)—we find that the SSE exhibits a leadership role over the ESE in terms of transmission of returns and volatility. These results indicate that prior empirical studies showing that the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) leads other exchanges is a result of market structure factors rather than a ‘U.S. effect’. The factors that lead to a leadership role are deeper liquidity, more effective monitoring, and a greater concentration of speculators. Markets possessing these factors will be the first to attract investors and will lead other exchanges. Although, the leadership role of the SSE creates a predictable flow of information between markets, the ability to create arbitrage opportunities is mitigated by transaction costs and the current order-processing mechanism in Chile. However, our results suggest that a market's leadership could result in arbitrage opportunities in countries with lower transaction costs or different order-processing mechanisms.     

Banks' home bias in government bond holdings: Will banks in low‐rated countries invest in European safe bonds (ESBies)?

This paper offers two new explanations for banks' home bias in government bond holdings: a sovereign‐based rating cap on corporates and the existence of a ‘bank tax.’ These are complementary to the four explanations offered in the literature: risk‐shifting, gambling for resurrection, moral suasion, and a means to store liquidity for financing future investment. Collectively, they cast doubt on the European Union's demand‐led approach to investment in European safe bonds (ESBies) by banks in low‐rated countries. Bank regulations such as constraints on large exposure or risk‐based capital on credit risk concentration will be needed if the objective is to break the so‐called ‘deadly embrace.’     

Can Islamic injunctions indemnify the structural flaws of securitized debt?

Securitization enhances liquidity of debt contracts. However, its structural deficiency at origination has led to the freezing of its secondary market and failure of institutions holding the collateral. This paper builds on key cultural (i.e., Islamic) rulings to rectify flaws entrenched in securitized debt stemming from asymmetric information and agency issues. These injunctions help in the efficient underwriting of debt contracts across the globe to: (i) redeem its ‘toxicity’; (ii) guarantee liquidity; (iii) alleviate fragility of the financial system; and (iv) promote economic growth. Finally, this study promotes a rethink of the current ‘Islamic’ financial system from a narrow literalist juridical perspective to one that is grounded in financial economics.     

Challenges to teaching evolution: What's a head?

This article draws upon the history of challenges to the teaching of evolutionary science in the United States to determine what the future may hold for American evolution education. Scenarios considered include: anti-evolution activists will continue to attempt legal maneuvers to leverage creationism into public science classrooms, creationists will concede to secular instruction in public schools and focus their attentions on informal mis-education, and that the teaching of evolution will improve despite challenges. Also, noting that tactics employed by American creationists are being exported to other countries, international challenges to the teaching of evolution are discussed with special attention paid to potential futures regarding evolutionary science within Islamic cultures.     

Competition,concentration and risk taking in Banking sector of MENA countries

This paper tests the relationship between competition and bank stability for 356 banks operating in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) countries during the period 2005–2012. Our results show that for the overall sample, a U-shaped relationship between competition and banks’ risk taking for MENA banks. The negative linear relationship between Z-Score and H-statistics in Gulf countries shows that an increase in competition leads to a reduction in the level of financial stability. In the case of other non-Gulf countries, the increase of competition in uncompetitive markets can lead to an increase in stability. The results confirm the importance of the market structure as an explanatory factor for financial stability, but also indicate that concentration is not associated with uncompetitive markets.     

The ‘competition–stability/fragility’ nexus: A comparative analysis of Islamic and conventional banks

The ‘competition–stability/fragility’ nexus is one of the more debated issues in the banking literature. However, while there is ample evidence concerning the relationship between competition and stability/fragility in different countries and regions, no prior study investigates this in the context of Islamic and conventional banks. We do this using data on both types of banks drawn from 16 developing economies over the period 2000–12. We measure the lack of competition using the Lerner index, and stability using both accounting-based measures, comprising the Z-score and the nonperforming loan ratio, and market-based measures, including Merton's distance to default. We employ panel vector autoregression and two-stage quantile regression to estimate the relationship. Our results lend support to the competition–fragility hypothesis in both Islamic and conventional banks. We also find the magnitude of the market power effect on stability is greater for conventional banks than Islamic banks. Lastly, banks in the median quantile of stability have a greater ability to reduce credit risk through gaining market power than banks in the lower and upper quantiles.     

Dynamic linkages among equity markets in the Middle East and North African countries

The relaxation of security laws and regulations in emerging markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) provides abundant opportunities for foreign investors. These markets exhibit high-expected returns and substantial volatility. In this paper, we investigate the lead/lag relationship between the MENA countries and regions. We find no market causality or spillover from one country to another in the North Africa region. Our results for the Levant region reveal that there are linkages between stock markets in this region. The results for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region show that there is more interaction and linkage in the GCC region than in the North Africa and Levant regions. An unexpected result is that UAE's stock market leads all the markets in this region. Finally, we investigate linkages among the three regions. We find that GCC influences the other two regions.     

Factors affecting customers’ continued intentions to use Islamic banks

No study has concurrently verified the religious motives and attitudes that affected the customers’ continued intentions to use Islamic banks along with the importance of other factors and attributes associated with conventional banking services. This study examines factors affecting customers’ attitudes toward Islamic banks based on data obtained from interview surveys conducted in Jordan. The findings show that customers’ religious motives, their evaluations of a bank's compliance with Islamic law as an indication of the customers’ religious attitudes toward Islamic banks, and the ease of access to credit had a positive effect on the customers’ intentions to continue using Islamic banks. More specifically, the findings suggest that customers who continuously transact with Islamic banks more strongly emphasize religious attitudes, rather than credit constraints (such as the degree of access to credit) and religious motives. This study further reveals that religious attitudes, rather than mere religious motives, were the primary criterion for the customers’ continued intent to use Islamic banks, especially when considering the strong effect of their religious attitudes toward Islamic banks.