浅析次贷危机下人民币货币互换问题

自去年底以来,中国央行接连与国外央行及货币当局签署货币互换协议,累计高达6500亿人民币.中国为什么要与他国和地区进行货币互换?这是否意味着人民币正迈向国际化?本文首先介绍了货币互换的含义及功能,接着比较了六种货币互换协议的具体作用,并指出此轮货币互换的真正目的,最后通过分析一国货币真正国际化的条件,得出央行频签货币互换协议有促进人民币国际化的可能,但并不能与人民币国际化划等号.     

浅析次贷危机下人民币货币互换问题

自去年底以来,中国央行接连与国外央行及货币当局签署货币互换协议,累计高达6500亿人民币。中国为什么要与他国和地区进行货币互换?这是否意味着人民币正迈向国际化?本文首先介绍了货币互换的含义及功能,接着比较了六种货币互换协议的具体作用,并指出此轮货币互换的真正目的,最后通过分析一国货币真正国际化的条件,得出央行频签货币互换协议有促进人民币国际化的可能,但并不能与人民币国际化划等号。     

浅析次贷危机下人民币货币互换问题

自去年底以来,中国央行接连与国外央行及货币当局签署货币互换协议,累计高达6500亿人民币。中国为什么要与他国和地区进行货币互换?这是否意味着人民币正迈向国际化?本文首先介绍了货币互换的含义及功能,接着比较了六种货币互换协议的具体作用,并指出此轮货币互换的真正目的,最后通过分析一国货币真正国际化的条件,得出央行频签货币互换协议有促进人民币国际化的可能,但并不能与人民币国际化划等号。     

美联储货币互换工具的实践及启示

货币互换工具是两国央行间进行国际金融合作并管理流动性问题的重要金融工具。美联储货币互换工具的实践表明,货币互换工具对于稳定双边投资和贸易、维持美元币值稳定和维护投资美元资产的投资者信心、解决市场流动性短缺以及应对金融危机等方面都有积极作用。美联储货币互换工具的实践对我国央行开展双边本币货币互换具有重要的借鉴意义。     

人民币国际化的破冰之旅

2008年12月，中日韩三国在日本福冈召开了联合峰会，强调进一步加强区域合作以应对金融市场动荡，并倡议扩大三国间双边货币互换规模。此举对维护地区金融稳定及推动区域贸易投资便利化有重要的作用。其中，中韩以本币形式签署的货币互换协议尤其值得关注。它既是亚洲新兴市场国家积极主动应对金融危机的重要举措，也预示着“人民币首次以官方姿态迈出国门，开启了国际化的破冰之旅”。     

我国签订货币互换协议的评述

自2008年12月以来,中国人民银行与各国家地区金融管理当局相继签署了总额约合6500亿元人民币的货币互换协议,引起了国际社会的广泛关注。本文通过介绍货币互换的概念和基本原理,指出各国政府签订货币互换协议的主要目的是缓解流动性风险,应对危机,最后认为我国签订货币互换协议将增强国际金融市场信心、推动双边贸易、促进我国金融管理水平提升和金融创新以及推动人民币国际化进程。     

从货币互换看人民币国际化

随着我国经济的不断发展,在国际上开展了大量的贸易,近年来国际间的金融风险不断蔓延,我国同周边国家与地区签订了大宗的人民币互换协议。人民币互换协议的签订,一方面在金融危机持续影响的背景下,大规模的货币互换可以有效的缓解国际贸易的收支矛盾;另一方面也可以稳定金融市场,维护世界经济的发展。因此人民币货币互换协议在人民币国际化的进程中所起到的作用越来越重要,了解人民币互换才能更好的服务于人民币国际化进程。     

发达经济体央行建立长期货币互换网络的影响分析

2013年10月31日,美联储、加拿大央行、英国央行、日本央行、欧洲央行及瑞士央行宣布将现有的双边临时流动性互换协议转换为长期互换协议,将该六国央行彼此之间的双边互换协议构建成一个货币互换网络,并允许在彼此签署特定双边互换协议所规定的必要市场条件下,网络中的任何一国央行可在其管辖权范围内向其他五国央行提供流动性支持。如果说此前的临时互换协议有助于减缓金融市场流动性压力,减轻对宏观经济的影响,长期互换安排则将作为一个审慎的流动性支持手段,继续行使稳定金融市场的职能。为均衡全球经济发展,切实便利双边贸易与投资,维护区域金融稳定,中国人民银行与其他经济体央行先后建立了一系列货币互换安排。本文分析了发达经济体央行建立货币互换网络对全球以及对我国金融体系的影响,并提出了相关应对措施。     

央行间货币互换在金融安全网建设中的作用

近几年来,货币互换在双边金融合作中扮演越来越重要的角色。文章对此次金融危机后美联储与其他央行的货币互换、“10＋3”框架下的货币互换以及人民银行与其他货币当局进行的货币互换情况进行了回顾,并对央行间货币互换在金融安全网建设中的作用和风险进行了分析,认为在发挥货币互换传统功能的基础上,应更加突出其在构建全球金融安全网建设中的作用。     

对金融衍生品进行五级分类监管险

货币互换是指金额相同、期限相同、计息方式相同但币种不同的两笔资金之间的交换。2008年12月以来，我国央行分别与境外央行签署了总额为6500亿元的货币互换协议，对于应对短期流动性问题、有效应对金融危机、维护国际金融稳定等具有深远意义。但在进行货币互换的同时，也要警惕和防范货币互换带来的风险。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…