真实商业周期理论的方法论贡献——在动态随机一般均衡模型框架下分析经济波动

本文通过介绍真实商业周期(RBC)理论模型,指出在解释现实经济波动时,简单精巧的RBC模型能够令人惊奇地拟合现实经济。更为重要的是,本文认为,真实商业周期理论开创了在动态随机一般均衡模型框架下分析宏观经济波动的先河,为现代宏观经济学各流派讨论经济波动提供了试验场。     

贸易开放、贸易市场多样化与经济波动——基于中国省级面板数据的实证分析

本文使用中国省级层面的面板数据,考察了贸易开放对中国经济波动的影响。研究结果显示:贸易开放所产生的外部风险显著增加了经济波动,而贸易开放减少了经济波动,其中出口贸易对经济波动的影响显著为负,而进口贸易对经济波动的影响为负但不显著;贸易开放通过进出口市场多样化减少了经济波动,而且进出口市场多样化对经济波动的负向影响是U型的,并且U型表现出较强的稳健性。本文的研究结果表明贸易开放所引致的外部风险破坏了经济稳定,而贸易市场多样化对保持经济增长的稳定性发挥了重要作用。     

贸易条件、国际利率冲击与经济波动

开放经济条件下国际金融危机所带来的传染和溢出效应是当下国际宏观经济学的热点和核心问题,而随着中国经济改革开放正在向纵深发展,在危机传染机制下的中国经济正在经历各种外部条件的冲击。金融危机的传染机制对中国经济产生了显著的负面波及效应,文章基于开放经济的视角,构建了一个动态均衡模型并对中国经济波动特征进行了研究,模型引入了反映国际经济传导的两类关键冲击,即国际贸易条件冲击和国际融资利率冲击。参数校准后的数值模拟显示,开放经济模型能够较好的匹配我国实际经济的主要二阶距波动特征,进一步的波动性分解发现国际贸易条件冲击和国际融资利率冲击对中国经济波动有很强的解释力。政府在开放经济框架下应该加强对经常账户和国际资本流动的监管,使得中国经济在改革开放走向纵深的背景下稳定增长。     

中国经济长期增长与短期波动的计量分析

本文基于纳尔逊和普罗瑟、坎贝尔和曼昆的研究经济波动持久性的统计思想以及中国1987-2009年的国民生产总值数据,构造了中国经济波动的长期增长趋势计量模型以及短期波动和长期收敛趋势计量模型,较全面地分析了中国经济波动的特点,并得出相关结论。中国经济确实符合宏观经济理论的基本假设,即经济是围绕着一条趋势路径而发生波动的。     

中国经济周期的领先区域研究

经济波动周期存在行业领先性已经成为公认的事实,但经济波动周期的区域领先性研究常常被同步化所代替.实际上,经济波动的区域领先性不仅存在,而且和行业领先性一样重要.文章对沃森模型的残差链进行了简化,并利用中国部分省(市、区)数据进行分析.结果表明,中国经济自建国以来不仅呈现出越来越明显的周期性,而且展现了这种波动的区域领先性,说明了经济波动中领先区域、滞后区域、同步区域的现实存在.进一步的分析表明,在经济扩张与衰退时期,区域领先性的表现存在一些差异,经济扩张时期的领先(滞后)区域不一定对应着衰退时期的领先(滞后)区域:同一区域可以是经济扩张、经济衰退与领先区域、滞后区域的任意组合.     

浅析金融发展对国际贸易的影响

随着我国改革开放的深入,金融发展极大地促进了我国市场经济的飞速发展。然而与此同时,随着市场的不断开放,国际贸易不但将中国带向了世界贸易大环境中,也同时将影响经济波动的国际因素传导到了国内。国际贸易是一把双刃剑,随着全球经济的发展和壮大,金融发展对国际贸易的促进作用所带来的利益总体上是要远大于经济波动所带来的冲击的。金融发展可以提高资本积累,促进技术创新,本文基于理论分析和中国经济发展数据,论证和分析金融发展对中国国际贸易的重大影响。     

经济波动与劳动收入份额——基于省际面板数据的分析

基于省际面板数据的实证模型,本文揭示了中国劳动收入份额在短期经济波动(包括产出波动和价格波动)中的一般特征.研究显示,劳动收入份额在产出波动中具有显著的“逆周期”性,在价格上涨的过程中则呈现出“U型”变化轨迹.在控制了短期经济波动并考虑模型的动态性之后,我们认为20世纪90年代中期以来中国劳动收入份额的下降仅仅是一种短期“逆周期”现象,而并非伴随着长期经济增长的一般趋势.进一步的研究发现,“工资粘性”及中国劳动力市场中的某些特殊因素使劳动报酬不能随着产出增长和价格变化而迅速调整,是短期经济波动能够显著影响劳动收入份额的直接原因.     

中国与世界经济波动的相关性研究

本文针对中国与世界经济波动的相互作用与影响这一日益重要的问题进行了一系列的计量检验。检验结果表明，自改革开放以来，中国经济的持续性比世界经济稍强。但中国经济的波动幅度较大；中国经济与世界经济的相关性经历了由强到弱，再逐步转强的过程，但总体上相关性程度较低；中圆经济波动滞后于世界经济波动，表明中国经济对世界经济存在较强的依赖性；在10％显著性水平下二者互为格兰杰因果关系，但世界经济对中国经济的影响更大；中国经济与世界经济、中国经济与中国对外贸易、中国经济与FDI流入之间有较强的相互冲击效应；中国对外贸易对世界经济波动的影响力较大，而世界经济对中国对外贸易的影响力却有限。     

基于移动加权平均综合指数的经济预警模型构建

经济安全预警系统就是根据经济指标体现的统计规律.运用经济波动理论和计算机技术对经济波动现象进行分析、监测和预警的一种有效方法.本文提出了基于移动加权平均综合指数的经济预警模型,并给出了建模过程.然后使用此模型对我国当前经济形势进行预警监测的实证检验,以提高预警系统的准确性与可靠性.     

中国产业结构变动对经济波动影响实证探析

本文利用1978-2012年中国3 1个省份的面板数据,采用一阶差分G M M模型,分阶段地考察了产业结构合理化与产业结构高度化对经济波动的影响。实证研究发现,中国产业结构合理化和产业结构高度化均能有效抑制经济波动,该抑制作用的大小在不同经济发展阶段有所差别。相比产业结构高度化,产业结构合理化更能有效缓解中国经济波动。     

The long or short of it: Determinants of foreign currency exposure in external balance sheets

A major focus of the recent literature on the determination of optimal portfolios in open-economy macroeconomic models has been on the role of currency movements in determining portfolio returns that may hedge various macroeconomic shocks. However, there is little empirical evidence on the foreign currency exposures that are embedded in international balance sheets. Using a new database, we provide stylized facts concerning the cross-country and time-series variation in aggregate foreign currency exposure and its various subcomponents. In panel estimation, we find that richer, more open economies take longer foreign-currency positions. In addition, we find that an increase in the propensity for a currency to depreciate during bad times is associated with a longer position in foreign currencies, providing a hedge against domestic output fluctuations. We view these new stylized facts as informative in their own right and also potentially useful to the burgeoning theoretical literature on the macroeconomics of international portfolios.     

台湾经济波动典型化事实的经验分析

文章运用HP滤波分解法得到台湾主要宏观经济时间序列的周期性成分,归纳总结了以波动性、协动性和粘持性为指标的台湾经济波动的典型化事实。台湾经济波动典型化事实表明:(1)台湾主要宏观经济时间序列均表现出不同程度的粘持性,包括台湾实际GDP在内的大多数经济变量波动性并不剧烈,除少数变量相对于GDP波动呈逆周期关系外,大多数均呈顺周期关系;(2)台湾经济波动相对于其同中国大陆、日本、美国及东盟的双边贸易波动呈顺周期关系。     

Risk Minimization with Incomplete Information in a Model for High‐Frequency Data

We study risk‐minimizing hedging‐strategies for derivatives in a model where the asset price follows a marked point process with stochastic jump‐intensity, which depends on some unobservable state‐variable process. This model reflects stylized facts that are typical for high frequency data. We assume that agents in our model are restricted to observing past asset prices. This poses some problems for the computation of risk‐minimizing hedging strategies as the current value of the state variable is unobservable for our agents. We overcome this difficulty by a two‐step procedure, which is based on a projection result of Schweizer and show that in our context the computation of risk‐minimizing strategies leads to a filtering problem that has received some attention in the nonlinear filtering literature.     

产业结构升级对中国经济波动的影响——基于三部门新凯恩斯模型的分析

宏观经济由不同产业构成,其整体波动是不同产业波动的综合效果,蕴含了不同产业自身的波动以及它们之间相互作用的复杂机制。文章在考虑中国产业结构升级实际状况的基础上构建了三部门的新凯恩斯模型,分析了产业结构升级熨平经济波动的四种具体机制：粘性价格机制、部门需求转化机制、厂商价格策略互补机制和产业相对规模变动机制。通过数值模拟研究发现：考虑产业结构的三部门新凯恩斯模型明显优于单部门模型,能够较好地再现中国产业波动性大于总产出波动性的特征事实,文章模拟结果表明产业结构升级能够降低宏观经济波动20%左右。文章的研究结论意味着,政府要实现宏观经济的平稳运行应注重推动产业结构升级。     

A regularity structure for rough volatility

A new paradigm has emerged recently in financial modeling: rough (stochastic) volatility. First observed by Gatheral et al. in high‐frequency data, subsequently derived within market microstructure models, rough volatility captures parsimoniously key‐stylized facts of the entire implied volatility surface, including extreme skews (as observed earlier by Alòs et al.) that were thought to be outside the scope of stochastic volatility models. On the mathematical side, Markovianity and, partially, semimartingality are lost. In this paper, we show that Hairer's regularity structures, a major extension of rough path theory, which caused a revolution in the field of stochastic partial differential equations, also provide a new and powerful tool to analyze rough volatility models.     

Optimal fiscal policy in a small open economy with limited commitment

We introduce limited commitment into a standard optimal fiscal policy model in small open economies. We consider the problem of a benevolent government that signs a risk-sharing contract with the rest of the world, and that has to choose optimally distortionary taxes on labor income, domestic debt and international transfers. Both the home country and the rest of the world may have limited commitment, which means that they can leave the contract if they find it convenient. The contract is designed so that, at any point in time, neither party has incentives to exit. We define a small open emerging economy as an economy where the limited commitment problem is active in equilibrium. Conversely, a small open developed economy is an economy in which the commitment problem is not active. Our model is able to rationalize some stylized facts about fiscal policy in emerging economies: i) the volatility of tax revenues over GDP is higher in emerging economies than in developed ones; ii) fiscal policy is procyclical in emerging economies; iii) emerging economies may “graduate” from procyclical fiscal policy and adopt countercyclical policies in the long run.     

FINANCIAL FRAGILITY AND FINANCIAL CRISIS IN MEXICO

The objective of this paper is to show how Mexico’s strategy of financial deregulation and liberalization set the stage for the crisis that the country suffered in December 1994. The theoretical underpinning is Post‐Keynesian, and more precisely, a Minsky‐inspired analytical perspective extended to the open economy. In the first section the authors carry out a theoretical discussion dealing with some Post‐Keynesian theories of the business cycle. A second section is devoted to examining and identifying the stylized facts in the evolution of the Mexican economy, with special emphasis on the interaction between the financial and real variables. In the last section the authors propose a simplified model which shows how and why a strategy of financial deregulation and liberalization may lead to financial fragility and to a crisis.     

Cost share‐induced technological change and Kaldor’s stylized facts

This paper presents a theory of induced technological change in which firms pursue a random, local, and bounded search for productivity‐enhancing innovations. Firms implement profitable innovations at fixed prices, which then spread through the economy. After diffusion, all firms adjust prices and wages. The model is consistent with a variety of price‐setting behaviors, which determine equilibrium positions characterized by constant cost shares and productivity growth rates. A fixed mark‐up can yield Marx‐biased technological change. Target‐return pricing yields Harrod‐neutral technological change with a fixed wage share as a stable equilibrium, consistent with Kaldor's stylized facts, while allowing for deviations from equilibrium, as observed in the longer historical record.     

中国居民储蓄行为不确定性与外汇储备——在Ramsay模型下对中国经济失衡的微观分析

基于当前中国消费者具有不确定性预期和因缺乏成熟金融市场而存在着借贷约束等两大基本特征事实,本文通过构造一个缓冲存货模型,论证指出当本国的经济增长率小于一个特定的临界值时,居民储蓄率将与本国经济增长率呈正比例变动,而本国的外汇储备也会不断积累。这不仅解释了中国的"高储蓄之谜",也解释了其不断积累的外汇储备,从而为自20世纪90年代以来中国经济的内外部失衡提供了一个微观解释基础。据本文推测,在其他条件保持不变的情况下,如果中国经济继续保持7%的增长率,则外汇储备将有可能在2015年突破5万亿美元。据此,本文给出了相应的政策建议。     

A simple model of firm heterogeneity, international trade, and wages

This paper presents a general equilibrium trade model in which homogeneous firms choose a technology from a set of competing technologies and choose employees from a set of workers of heterogeneous skill. In equilibrium, the interaction between the characteristics of competing technologies, international trade costs, and the availability of workers of heterogeneous skill gives rise to firm heterogeneity. The model generates several of the stylized facts concerning the (apparent) superiority of firms that engage in international trade relative to those that do not and has implications for the effect of international trade on the skill premium and on observed industry-level productivity.