我国大城市80后生育观的调查研究——基于杭州市的数据

调整人口政策,平衡人口结构对于现阶段全面做好人口工作具有十分重要的意义。文章首先简要的对生育观文献进行了述评,进而在此基础上运用问卷调查的方法分析了杭州市80后的生育观现象,主要表现为杭州市80后都有生儿育女的观念、孩子的数量为一至两个、女性偏好略大于男性、生育的动机主要为满足亲子感情及家庭完整等高层次的精神需要、晚婚晚育普遍等方面。最后上升到更宏观的角度,从整个国家的视角为我国经济发达的大城市的生育政策调整提出政策建议,主要有继续坚持实行计划生育基本国策不动摇;从人们的经济条件和生活质量方面影响人们的生育行为;鼓励大城市推行适度的"开放二胎"政策;完善并加大对计划生育家庭的扶助制度,以期能为政府相关部门建言献策。     

The Demography of Indonesia in Comparative Perspective

Having reduced its fertility rate over the past 40 years, Indonesia has reached a new demographic crossroad. Its fertility rate is now around 2.5 births per woman, which, if sustained, would add substantial numbers to Indonesia's population in the future. There are concerns within Indonesia that the present level of population growth is an obstacle to continued economic development and, accordingly, that fertility should be reduced to the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman as soon as possible. Yet a comparative perspective indicates that countries such as Singapore, Japan, and Thailand are concerned about the effects that their very low rates of fertility are having on their labour forces and their rates of population ageing. This article suggests that with the right policy settings Indonesia can avoid this outcome yet continue to reduce its fertility. It discusses the implications of Indonesia's population growth and distribution for its economy, as well as the poor quality of demographic data.     

A quantitative analysis of fertility dynamics in small cities of Russia

The results of comparing the fertility dynamics across Russia and in small cities of Ural in 2006?C2010 are provided. Certain components have been studied using structural decomposition. According to the analysis, the fertility behavior of population in small cities is more susceptible to the influence of different factors than in Russia in general. Special measures are necessary to encourage fertility in small cities. In these measures, the specifics of demographic dynamics, population, and lifestyle in small cities must be considered, as well as the higher potential efficiency of their external effects in comparison with big cities.     

人口老龄化的长期经济影响：上海的挑战与对策

在全球人口老龄化趋势日益显著的背景下,生育率的迅速下降和预期寿命的延长使得上海人口正在经历快速的老龄化,这一人口年龄结构的转变也对上海经济发展产生着长期的影响。作为目前我国老龄化程度最高的城市,如何在经济迅速发展的同时迎接和应对老龄化挑战,这是上海当前需要高度重视的问题,关系到社会和谐稳定与经济可持续发展。本文将从上海...     

Determinants of fertility in developing countries

The contribution of agricultural modernization to changes in fertility in developing countries was examined. A model for the determinants of both fertility and infant mortality--hypothesized to be positively related--was specified and applied to cross-sectional data for 75 developing countries for the year 1971. The infant mortality rate, productivity per unit of labor and land, and density of population for agricultural land were highly correlated with the crude birth rate. The only other exogenous variables highly correlated with each other were productivity per unit of labor and infant mortality, and productivity per unit of land and population density for agricultural areas. The coefficient of population density of agricultural areas suggested a negative impact of density on fertility. The infant mortality rate, productivity per unit of land and labor, and density of population of agricultural areas explained 85% of the intercountry variation in fertility. The infant mortality rate, productivity of land, and productivity of labor were of descending order of importance in determining the crude birth rates in the countries analyzed. 68% of the intercountry variation in infant mortality was explained by fertility, adult literacy, per capita energy consumption, gini-coefficient of income distribution, population per hospital bed, and protein supply. Adult literacy, crude birth rates, population per hospital bed, per capita energy consumption, per capita protein supply, and gini-coefficient of income distribution were of descending order of importance in determining infant mortality rates. All of the variables that affected infant mortality directly affected fertility indirectly; conversely, all the variables that affected fertility directly affected infant mortality indirectly. Overall, these results confirm that agricultural modernization does exert an effect on fertility. The task in developing countries is to break the vicious cycle of infant mortality and fertility. This can be achieved both through family planning programs and the diffusion of health programs to lower infant mortality.     

A simultaneous-equation model of labor supply,fertility and earnings of married women: the case of registered nurses

A simultaneous-equation model of labor supply, fertility, and earnings is developed and estimated for an important subset of the female population, married registered nurses (RNs). Measures of variables specific to married nurses age 21-64 are developed by aggregating observations on individual nurses or their families into Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) averages, from the 1-in-100 Public Use Sample of the 1970 Census of Population in the U.S. The sample was restricted in certain ways: the grouped observations apply only to white RNs who are married with husband present and live in SMSAs of over 250,000 population in 1970 (except Honolulu). The sample is further restricted so that each included observation (representing an SMSA average) is based upon an underlying pool of at least 15 individual nurses. This last restriction reduces the sample of SMSAs to 88 from 124. The coefficient on the nurse wage variable is positive and statistically significant with an implied wage elasticity of .40 at the means. These estimates are consistent with those observed using the analogous microcensus data on RNs. RN fertility has the predicted negative effect on nurse labor supply but is statistically insignificant, but the magnitude of the fertility coefficient is plausible. A 10% increase in nurse fertility within an SMSA (number of children ever born/1000 nurses ever married within an SMSA) is associated with a reduction in the SMSA nurse labor supply. The estimated coefficients of the husband-earnings and nonlabor-income variables are negative but only the former is statistically significant at the 90% level or above. The estimated effect of the nurse's earnings opportunities on her fertility are statistically insignificant, but the wage coefficient is negative as expected and implies an elasticity of nurse fertility with respect to the nurse wage rate of approximately -.2. The coefficient on the labor supply variable is negative and statistically significant, confirming the hypothesis that increased labor market activity increases the opportunity costs of children. Husband's earnings are not a significant determinant of RN fertility. The estimates suggest that nurse labor supply and fertility decisions are relatively unimportant factors in determining the nurse's market earnings.     

The effects of social security on population and output growth

"In this paper we have considered two unfunded social security programs. Under the conventional system, benefits are related to aggregate fertility; under the hypothetical fertility-related system, benefits are directly linked to individual fertility. The effects on fertility and per capita growth rates of the two social security systems are examined in the context of endogenous growth." The relative merits of the two systems for developing and developed countries are considered. The authors conclude that "the conventional social security system existing in many developed nations may be desirable to...developing countries in reducing population and promoting economic growth. On the other hand, the hypothetical fertility-related system may be useful to developed countries as far as increasing fertility is concerned."     

A theoretical perspective on population policy in South Africa

The author describes the goals of South Africa's Population Development Programme, which works to enact the government's population policy. The primary objective is to achieve a balance between population size and natural and socioeconomic resources in the country. "The Population Development Programme promotes specific fertility-inhibiting programmes, projects and actions in the socio-economic fields of education, manpower training, health, the economy and housing. Population information, education and communication programmes are also directed at people with high fertility to facilitate the change of fertility perceptions in favour of a small family norm."     

EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN POPULATION GROUPS IN SOUTH AFRICA AND THE TIMING AND NUMBER OF BIRTHS

From 1981 to 2005, the total fertility rate in South Africa has been reduced from an estimated level of 4.6 to 2.8 children per woman. The relative differences in the total fertility rate between population groups, however, remain large. Our empirical analysis of the determinants of the timing of births shows that better‐educated women schedule birth later and have fewer children. The differences in education between population groups account for a substantive part (up to 40%) of the differences in completed fertility between the population groups. Our findings suggest that educational reforms aimed at equal access to education, which benefit African women most, may not only improve the quality of life of women but also, through their impact on fertility behaviour, yield long‐run benefits, as they will have fewer children and more resources to invest in the next generation.     

国际人口政策转向对中国的启示

世界人口面临新的形势,人口增长掉头,且人口转变呈现多元化态势,其根本原因是各国生育率以不同的速度下滑。世界人口大势的转变引发各国政府对生育率态度的转变以及对生育政策的调整。越来越多国家出台鼓励生育政策,这不仅发生在生育率长期低迷的欧洲,也发生在生育率快速下降的东亚和大洋洲。东亚地区日本、新加坡、韩国和中国台湾已转而推行鼓励生育措施,并不断加强政策力度,效果却差强人意。同样处于很低生育率水平的中国仍在努力维持当前的低生育水平,与他国的政策调整渐行渐远,这将对社会与家庭造成难以弥补的负面影响。中国人口政策的调整已迫在眉睫。     

The dynamics of population in Yugoslavia

A general review of population trends in Yugoslavia since the end of World War II is presented. Sections are included on natural population increase, including fertility, family planning, and mortality; migration, both internal and international; and changes in population characteristics. Data are primarily from official sources and are presented for Yugoslavia as a whole and its component republics and autonomous regions.     

Fertility Effects of Labor Market Conditions at Graduation

This study examines how individuals' fertility outcomes were affected by the labor market conditions they experienced at graduation. Using data from the Chinese General Social Survey, it finds that poor labor market conditions at graduation delayed individuals' entry into parenthood. Higher unemployment rates at graduation reduced the probability of having at least one child in the survey year for both men and women. The negative fertility effects generally followed a U-shape, reached the maximum around average childbearing ages, and faded out within 15 years after graduation. Low-skilled workers mainly contribute to the negative fertility effects observed in the whole sample. Employment and marital outcomes are also analyzed as potential mechanisms. Estimation results indicate that individuals who experienced poor labor market conditions at graduation delayed marriage and the birth of the first child due to a lower probability of being employed, reduced working hours, and adverse income shocks. The negative long-term fertility effects should be brought to policymakers' attention, especially when China's low fertility issue worsens. Policymakers are expected to create more favorable employment conditions for labor market entrants to encourage fertility and expand the future working-age population.     

The infant mortality-fertility debate: some international evidence

"The aim of this paper is to analyze empirically the causal relationship, if any, between infant mortality and fertility in thirty-five developing countries." The focus is on possible relationships between the infant mortality rate and the fertility rate. "The hypothesis that infant mortality causes fertility is tested. The possibility of a 'reverse causation' is also analyzed. A one-sided distributed lag test as proposed by Granger...is employed." The results are analyzed in light of several versions of the mortality-fertility proposition, including demographic transition theory, choice theory, Ricardian theory, and the modern economic theory of population.     

生育、劳动人口福利与机制设计

通过建立动态优化模型，进行模拟发现：在没有配套性政策下按照政策生育会降低劳动人 口的福利水平。这意味着，如果自愿进行生育，全面二孩政策下民众很可能不会有效地响应政策。 进一步模拟发现：养老制度转轨和降低生育成本的政策，如果与生育政策调整同时进行，可以增 加社会资源，补偿生育对劳动人口福利的挤占，但是政策具有生育效应的关键在于转轨带来社会 资源增量须用于生育支持，降低家庭生育成本的关键在于提高社会照看与提供孩子产品和服务企 业的社会生产率。政策启示在于，尽快出台与生育政策配套性的措施，特别是生育支持性政策。     

Fertility trends in Indonesia, 1967-1985

Fertility trends in Indonesia for the period 1967-1985 are analyzed. Data are from the Indonesian censuses of 1971 and 1980 and from the 1985 Intercensal Survey (SUPAS 85); they concern fertility rates by province, marital status, and for the general population. An overview of the sociocultural factors that affect data reliability and a discussion of the effectiveness of the date of last birth method are included. The authors conclude that the evidence "has confirmed the existence of a major fertility decline throughout Indonesia. The pace of the decline has been faster in 1980-85 than during the 70s. On present trends, it should be possible to reach the ambitious target of halving fertility between 1979 and 1990."     

Sub-national population policy: the case of North Sulawesi

Since the 1970s, Indonesia has placed increasing emphasis on the development of stronger planning capacity at the regional level; however, the concept of regional autonomy is still viewed with suspicion given Indonesia's history of regional separatist movements. This fact has implications for the need for national population policy to be formulated and implemented with a view toward the varying conditions faced by different provinces and regions. The author presents a case study of fertility, mortality, migration, urbanization, and the development of human capital in 1 Indonesian province--North Sulawesi--to illustrate that special characteristics and internal diversity can demand individualized responses by policy makers. In terms of these 5 areas, the following observations can be made about conditions in North Sulawesi: 1) mortality rates are already below the national average, although infant mortality remains unacceptably high; 2) fertility rates are also well below the national average and approaching replacement level without any aggressive family planning outreach activities, but there remains a need to identify the ultimate fertility target and the extent to which intervention is required; 3) there is little scope for absorbing transmigrants, but there are some major issues regarding population redistribution within the province; 4) although there are no large cities, the increasing dominance of Manado is a concern; and 5) the quality of education and an employment structure to match the well-educated labor force are more important than an expansion of these services. A central concern is the ability of North Sulawesi to prevent "brain drain" to Jakarta; however, the province's capacity to do so is dependent on decisions made in Jakarta about the allocation of revenue, regulations regarding the processing of copra and cloves, new air routes, and the extent of regional autonomy to be tolerated in decisions affecting provincial growth.     

Dynamic disequilibrium: demographic policies and trends in Asia

The authors present an overview of anticipated population trends and policies in the developing countries of Eastern and Southeastern Asia. Attention is given to various population projections to the years 2000 and 2025, the sources of these projections, and the assumptions on which they are based. The population policies of 14 countries in the region are then discussed. It is noted that those countries with no commitment to support family planning are not likely to reach fertility levels in line with those on which U.N. population projections are based. Changes in population policies in China, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines are summarized.     

重新认识中国的人口形势

中国人口进入低生育率时期已经20年了,但长期以来人口研究对这种重大转变认识不足。全国第六次人口普查数据证实,以往严重高估出生水平和生育水平,低估人口老龄化进程,人口发展规划目标一再出现大幅落空。人口预测模拟结果表明,中国人口在21世纪中的主要矛盾已经由总人口规模问题转向人口年龄结构问题,未来人口老龄化来势凶猛。中国人口发展正处于极为关键的时刻,而以往人口理论宣传和估计预测中的偏向误导了对人口大趋势的正确把握,造成中国生育率严重过低,导致未来过度的少子化和老龄化的人口风险。     

中国西部地区家庭效用最大化分析

中国作为一个发展中大国,它所面临的人口问题已经得到了广泛的关注。虽然,在强硬政策下,人口数量能够得到一定控制,但是家庭所拥有的孩子及预期拥有的适度孩子数量究竟是多少,单纯地依靠人口政策可能力度不够,如果家庭的孩子数量影响到家庭的效用及其负效用,那么家庭就会慎重考虑适度孩子的数量。所以说要实现家庭效用最大化,就必定要涉及到家庭中孩子的数量,保证家庭孩子的适度数量,就成为了理性家庭所面临的也是必须要解决的重要问题。因此,本文根据家庭效用最大化的理论,得出家庭收入的高低会对家庭孩子的数量产生一定影响,同时,家庭对人力资本投入档次,也会对家庭决定孩子的数量起到一定作用的结论。从而为以后人口政策导向提供了重要理论依据。     

边疆民族地区人口结构预测及优化对策研究——以云南省为例

人口结构问题对边疆民族地区社会经济发展的制约作用越来越明显。对人口结构进行预测,把握人口结构发展趋势,制定人口结构对策对社会经济发展具有重要的理论和实践意义。优化云南人口结构的对策是：调整生育政策;发挥年龄结构优势使劳动适龄人口充分就业;利用主体功能区划进行人口布局的合理规划。