我国农业保险诚信问题研究

农民农业生产面临着各种经营风险,尤其是频发的自然灾害严重威胁着农业稳定发展和农民增收.我国农业保险作为一项农业风险管理措施,可有效分散农业风险,补偿灾害损失.我国农业保险基础薄弱,农村保险市场需要着力培育,搞好农村保险诚信经营,提高服务质量和水平,直接决定其发展的生命力.     

我国农业保险效率实证研究

农业是国民经济的基础，农业保险作为现代农业发展的一种重要的风险管理工具，对尽快恢复农业生产、稳定农户收入有着十分重要的作用。本文采用DEA分析法来估算我国农业保险的相对经营绩效。DEA分析法（Data Envelopment Analysis）又称数据包络分析方法，在处理多投入、     

对县域农业保险缺失问题的思考

农业是我国国民经济健康发展的重要保障,发展农业保险是完善农业保护体系,提高农业生产经营水平的必要措施。但是,政策性农业保险在我国还处于起步阶段,运作机制还不健全,缺失问题突出,制约了农业保险的发展。本文通过对包头地区农业保险发展情况的调查,分析影响县域农业保险发展因素,并提出相关建议。     

政策性农业保险存在的问题及建议

农业保险是许多国家普遍实行的一种农业保障方式,其目的在于降低农业经营中遇到的自然风险和市场风险,以保障农业的稳定发展。我国是一个农业大国,农业在整个国民经济中占有十分重要的地位。近年来农业保险尤其是政策性农业保险获得了前所未有的快速发展并取得了显著的阶段性成果。然而随着农业保险覆盖面的日趋扩大,法律法规尚不健全、保险公司经营管理水平有待进一步提高等问题逐步显现,阻碍了政策性农业保险进一步发展与完善。     

政策性农业保险的实践探索

政策性农业保险政府通过各种扶持政策为稳定国民经济而实施的一种国家政策,农业保险是防范农业风险的重要手段,对农业和农村经济、乃至对整个社会的和谐和稳定发展都有重要意义,由于各地的农业经营模式不同,经济条件和经济发展阶段不同,政策性农业保险应该如何实施,如何选择适合我国政策性农业保险发展的制度模式等,都是各级政府和保险界十分关注的问题。     

政策性农业保险与财政补贴若干问题思考

农业是国民经济的基础产业,发展政策性农业保险是我国的现实选择。政府对农业保险的财政补贴有着一定的理论基础,而且在新的农业保险的经营环境下,政策性农业保险发展指日可待。农业保险的财政补贴要坚持一定的原则,采用适当的方式,确定合适的对象予以发放,以提高补贴的效率。     

我国农业保险发展面临的困境及对策研究

农业保险在稳定农业生产和促进农民增收,推动农村经济的发展方面都有着重要的意义。但是现阶段我国的农业保险还不成熟,文章针对我国农业保险的困境提出了一系列的对策,包括建立农业风险分散机制;提高农业保险经营技术水平;加强对农业保险的宏观调控和政策支持。     

中国农业保险的出路探索

近年来,我国农业保险的发展陷入不断萎缩的被动局面,这与农业生产经营主体对农业保险日益增长的需求形成了鲜明的反差.本文分析了我国农业保险的发展现状和存在问题,通过对国外农业保险发展道路的比较和借鉴,提出了几种农业保险发展模式并分析了各模式的可行性,从而得出适合我国国情的农业保险发展模式.     

农业巨灾风险证券化--发展我国农业保险的新路径

我国农业保险发展水平低下,不能适应我国农业发展的要求,造成这种状况的重要原因是现有农业保险经营技术忽视了农业风险和农业保险的特殊性,农业保险经营与管理技术的创新缓慢是制约农业保险发展的最大瓶颈.20世纪90年代逐步发展起来的风险证券化技术可以为我国农业保险的发展提供新的可行路径.     

我国农业保险发展的现状与对策研究

农业保险是稳定农业生产经营,提高农业综合生产能力的重要手段,是促进农民增收的有效措施,是农业综合支持保护体系的重要组成部分,是加快农业产业化经营的重要途径。然而,由于农业天然具有的弱质性,构建有效的农业保险体系已成为现代保险领域中的难点课题,尤其是对于我国而言更为重要。它是我国整个经济体系和保险体系全面重构的一个重要组成部分。拟对我国农业保险的发展历程与现状、面临的困境进行深入地分析研究,在此基础上有针对性地提出相关对策建议。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.