面向网购的低碳供应链的序参量识别模型及其应用

为了识别面向网购的低碳供应链系统的关键控制因素——序参量,从低碳和网购的角度构建其体系结构,并对其进行利益相关者分析,在此基础上,提出了影响该供应链系统演化的备选序参量,并对它们之间的关系进行了探析。接着,在总结传统的序参量识别方法不足的基础上,提出了基于集对分析法的序参量识别模型并进行了应用,得出面向网购的低碳供应链系统的序参量为低碳协同机制、网购者的低碳意识和低碳激励机制。     

碳信息披露水平、股权融资成本与企业价值

近年来,全球变暖问题日益突出,世界各国纷纷倡导低碳经济加以应对.企业碳信息披露也逐渐受到社会的广泛关注.选择2010—2018年沪深A股上市工业企业为样本,实证分析了碳信息披露水平与企业长短期价值的关系及股权融资成本的中介作用.研究发现企业提高碳信息披露水平不能显著提升企业短期价值,但可以显著提升其长期价值,这也间接说明碳信息披露对企业价值的提升不具有立竿见影的效果,是经过厚积而显现的.另外,企业提高碳信息披露水平可以通过降低股权融资成本来提升企业的长期价值,从而证明了股权融资成本的部分中介作用.本文的研究在提高企业碳信息披露的积极性,推动我国低碳发展方面具有一定的现实意义.     

低碳时代的碳成本及其管理研究

在低碳经济时代,碳排放量作为重要的成本要素纳入企业核算体系,进而成为企业战略决策中要考虑的重要因素。文章基于低碳经济背景,探讨了碳成本含义及碳成本管理的重要内容,说明低碳时代的战略成本管理不同于传统工业社会的成本管理,有效的碳成本管理可以提高企业在低碳经济时代的竞争优势、调整企业发展路径、推动企业的可持续发展。     

基于可持续发展理念的电商时代网购包装设计设想

电商改变了我们的生活方式,网购包装将形成新的产业趋势,但是网购包装产生的耗材、低能、黑色污染等等问题严重影响了我们生存的环境,网购包装要发展为健康产业,必须创新网购包装的设计理念。文章基于可持续发展理念对电商网购包装设计进行了新设想,即为了避免黑色污染和过度耗材,根据电商运输交易的特点对网购包装进行一体化的设计;为了降低消耗和提升效率,网购包装材料的选择既要满足网购包装的功能需要,还要能够承载信息的传递;为了减少浪费和高效管理,网购包装的形态设计更加注重包装结构与信息的灵活性,更加强调造型模数化后的通用性。     

“双碳”目标下供应链减排合作服务平台经济发展研究

基于中国A股上市平台企业2010—2020年数据，采用爬虫文本分析技术测度企业与供应链成员的减排合作水平，实证检验其带来的经济效益。研究发现：开展供应链减排合作能够对平台企业价值创造产生促进作用；当企业所在地区是低碳试点城市时，这种正向影响更为显著。此外，供应链减排合作可以通过提高企业的碳信息披露水平、增加绿色研发投入带来价值提升，进而促进平台经济高质量发展。进一步，供应链减排合作带来的效益可以沿供应链溢出到平台企业的主要供应商和客户，促进多方价值创造，实现平台企业价值引领与繁荣经济。为引导平台企业实现供应链低碳转型，促进平台经济健康发展，应完善平台企业供应链减排合作内外部制度环境；积极推进碳信息披露改革，将供应链减排合作纳入ESG披露体系；促进平台企业加大绿色研发投入，带动地区及周边经济高质量发展。     

消费者低碳意识和政府碳税下低碳技术选择

在已有的低碳技术选择研究中,主要讨论碳税等调控策略对技术选择的影响,均未考虑消费者低碳意识对低碳技术选择的影响。首次在考虑消费者低碳意识和政府碳税的情况下,研究制造商的低碳技术选择问题,比较在消费者有无低碳意识两种市场条件下制造商的最优决策差异。通过数值仿真,分析了消费者低碳意识、政府碳税对制造商盈利及其低碳技术选择的影响。结果表明,当消费者低碳意识较强时,采用低碳技术比不采用对制造商更有利;随着政府碳税水平的逐步提高,制造商对于低碳技术将经历一个由不采用到采用又到不采用的过程。     

大学生对网络购物的状况分析与预测

根据中国互联网络信息中心(CNNIC)发布<2008年中国网络购物调查研究报告>显示2008年上半年网络购物金额达到162亿元人民币.网络购物的潮流让我们突发奇想,于是我们参与了学校组织的科技创新项目调查研究活动,并确定调查项目为<大学生网络购物调查研究项目>.本文通过运用多种统计方法从"网购总体的现状"、"网购商品与日常购物的比例情况"、"网购商品类型"、"网购付款方式"、"网购的有点及缺点情况"、"网络购物发展趋势的分析与预测"6方面进行了整理与分析,了解到我们附近大学生的网络购物现状,推测出大学生市场网购趋势.     

基于收益共享和成本共担的供应链双向激励协调

在供应商和销售商组成的二级供应链中,供应商隐藏关于生产成本的私人信息,销售商隐藏关于销售努力的行动,且双方地位相当,此时协调主体不明确。为了解决该问题,文章引入虚拟第三方为利他的委托人,站在供应链整体利润最大化的角度,设计基于收益共享和成本共担的协调契约,对供应商和销售商实施双向激励。研究结果表明:当收益共享比例和成本共担比例满足一定条件时,供应链实现了协调。此时,该契约调动了供应商降低生产成本、销售商提高努力水平的积极性,合作双方达到了"双赢"。笔者通过数值实验对结果进行了验证,表明了结果的有效性。     

基于supply-hub的供应链超网络物流信息平台构建

基于supply-hub运作模式,构建低成本、高服务水平的物流配送网络是企业增强市场竞争能力的有效手段,其所构建的供应链网络属于超网络范畴,文章结合"云计算"技术的应用,对基于supplyhub的供应链超网络构建物流信息平台,考虑现实需求,建立在超网络模型上的信息传播方式。     

碳交易和绿色补贴政策下的低碳供应链最优决策与协调

考虑政府的碳交易管制和绿色补贴政策,针对由政府、单个制造商和单个零售商组成的三级低碳供应链,运用博弈理论建立了政府主导下的三阶段Stackelberg博弈模型和集中决策模型。重点分析了消费者绿色偏好、碳交易价格和减排成本系数对低碳供应链最优决策和社会福利水平的影响。利用两部收费契约和低价促销策略分别对所建模型进行了协调研究,并利用数值算例对文中结论进行了验证。研究发现:较强的消费者绿色偏好有利于提高产品的绿色度、渠道成员的利润和供应链的社会福利水平;产品的绿色度和供应链的社会福利水平在集中决策模型下最高而在分散决策模型下较低;政府的最优绿色投资补贴率在消费者绿色偏好程度较强时降低而在碳减排难度较大时上升;在参数满足一定条件下,两部定价契约和低价促销策略可实现低碳供应链的完美协调。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Neurally reconstructing expected utility

While the concept of “expected utility” informs many theories of decision making, little is known about whether and how the human brain might compute this quantity. This article reviews a series of functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) experiments designed to localize brain regions that respond in anticipation of increasing amounts of monetary incentives. These studies collectively suggest that anticipation of increasing monetary gains activates a subcortical region of the ventral striatum in a magnitude-proportional manner. This ventral striatal activation is not evident during anticipation of losses. Actual gain outcomes instead activate a region of the mesial prefrontal cortex. During anticipation of gain, ventral striatal activation is accompanied by feelings characterized by increasing arousal and positive valence. These findings affirm the role of emotion in the anticipation of incentives, and may provide an initial step towards a neural reconstruction of expected utility.     

Duplication, Growth and ‘Total Return Economics’

Maintenance consumption is an expense recovered in product prices, yet also a source of taste satisfaction which must be exhausted, rather than reinvested, from the capital affording it. This riddle is solved in the duplication rules: the cost of maintenance consumption is recovered in pay and prices, but an equal flow is exhausted from the human capital of the worker earning the pay. The rules impact tradition in several ways. If output is defined in principle as value added, then it cannot also be described as consumption plus net investment without double-counting the maintenance consumption recovered in prices. Also rate of return in the stationary state is not zero, but is the rate sufficient to offset the exhaustion of individual human capital. The rules lead to new insights into economic return, and support an argument that all growth at the scale of closure is due to productivity gain rather than to thrift.     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Simulating the Effect of Regulatory Systems in a Fishery, An Application to the French Driftnet Albacore Fleet

With a thin economic component, most bio-economic models of fisheries failto assess the effects of the regulation systems on firms. In order to analysethe short term consequences of different management schemes, a simulationmodel is applied to the French driftnet albacore fleet: licence allocation withdriftnet regulation, individual quotas, and individual transferable quotaswithout any input control. Vessel technology is estimated by using the datacollected, and groups of vessels are distinguished according to criteria ofperformance. We present the adjustment within firms and between groupsunder different scenarios (limited entry with and without driftnetregulation, individual quotas and individual transferable quotas allocation),and we compare their results in terms of quasi-rent value and otherindicators such as hake harvests or dolphin by-catches.     

Knowledge as a Path-Dependence Process

By following a new approach proposed by Cognitive and Neuroeconomics, this paper presents and extends that part of Hayek's theory concerning knowledge in path-dependent terms, and shows that this is a fertile theory, opening new lines of inquiry for contemporary economics. In his theory of knowledge Hayek shows that the dynamics of economic change is path-dependent, in a different and more profound way than in the rest of the path-dependent literature. This literature deals with an important controversy, which will be also discussed and its specific and original meaning will be highlighted. As it will emerge, knowledge as a path-dependent process is consistent with cognitive theories of perception and learning and it plays a more important role than is traditionally assumed. Path-dependence is in fact always present in the cognitive dimension of perception and in individual decision-making processes, as well as in the processes of organizational innovation, and even in the macro-dimension of institutional change. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.