Is international trust performance predictable over time? A note

We examine whether past return measures have any significant predictive ability for future returns of UK unit trusts with international equity objectives. We find significant positive persistence between the past return performance of the trust relative to its investment sector and future trust returns relative to its sector. This result holds at short‐run and long‐run return horizons. The persistence is stronger in trusts that perform well relative to their sector. Our findings suggest that the past return performance of the trust relative to their sector provides a useful guide to future return performance relative to their sector.     

The Effect of Managerial Ownership on the Short- and Long-run Response to Cash Distributions

We examine both the short‐run and long‐run responses to the following corporate cash flow transactions: dividend increases and decreases, dividend initiations, and tender offer repurchases. Our focus is the short‐run and long‐run effects of managerial ownership. We hypothesize that ownership plays an important role in explaining the announcement effects for these events, owing to signaling effects and the reduction of agency problems. Our short‐run results accord well with the earlier work on announcement effects for these events and show that firms with high insider ownership exhibit higher excess returns. Our long‐term results indicate a drift over a three‐year period following the announcement, with the excess returns for the high insider‐ownership group becoming more pronounced.     

Board Share‐Ownership and Takeover Performance

Abstract:   We investigate the relation between takeover performance and board share‐ownership in the acquiring company for a sample of 363 UK takeovers completed in the period 1985–96. In investigating this relationship we pay particular attention to the composition of board shareholdings as well as their size. Thus, in addition to the analysis of total board holdings, we analyse the separate impact of CEO shareholdings and of the pattern of non‐executive and executive holdings within the board. In addition to our detailed examination of board holdings we assess the impact of non‐board holdings. Our analysis controls for a number of non‐shareholding constraints on discretionary director behaviour and for a variety of other influences on takeover outcomes including: the means of payment; acquirer size and market to book value; the relative size of the acquirer and the target; the nature of the bid in terms of hostility and industrial direction; and the pre‐takeover performance of the acquiring company. We assess performance in terms of announcement returns, long run share returns and a portfolio of accounting measures. We find evidence that overall board ownership has a strong positive impact on long run share returns and a weak positive impact on operating performance. However, much stronger effects are found when the overall board measure is split into CEO, executive, and non‐executive directors. We find strong evidence of a positive relation between takeover performance and CEO ownership, which holds for both long run returns and operating performance measures. This finding is robust to controlling for other factors that determine takeover performance and holds in a two stage least squares framework that controls for endogeneity effects. Shareholdings of other executive directors, non‐executive directors, and non‐board holdings are found to have no significant effect on takeover performance.     

The impacts of futures trading on volatility and volatility asymmetry of Bitcoin returns

The impact of Bitcoin futures introduction on the underlying Bitcoin volatility has been a controversial topic. Conflicting results had been obtained from different sample periods and methodologies. To address this debate, this study examines the impact of futures trading on volatility and volatility asymmetry of Bitcoin returns in the short and long run. Using exponential GARCH models, we introduce a dummy in the variance equation to capture the changes in the volatility after the introduction of Bitcoin futures. We find that after the introduction, spot return volatility decreases in the short run, but increases in the long run. Besides, in the short run, there exists an inverse leverage effect before and after the introduction; in the long run, the inverse leverage effect before the introduction changes to a usual level effect after the introduction. Finally, we examine whether greater futures trading activity, proxied by trading volume and open interest, is associated with greater Bitcoin volatility. To do so, we decompose each proxy into expected and unexpected components and document that, in the long run, Bitcoin volatility covaries positively with unexpected futures trading volume, but negatively with unexpected futures open interest.     

Valuation Effects of Short Sale Constraints: the Case of Corporate Takeovers

We examine the relation between the degree of short sale constraints for acquiring firms' equity and post takeover stock performance. We find that negative long‐run abnormal returns appear to decline (in economic and statistical terms) as the extent and persistence of institutional block‐holder ownership increase, after accounting for the size, book‐to‐market and method of payment effects. In the spirit of Miller (1977) , such evidence implies that the degree of short sale constraints serves as an important determinant of acquiring firms' short‐run overpricing. It appears that the presence of concentrated institutional presence mitigates and in most cases eliminates, through effective arbitrage, any short‐run overpricing that may be responsible for the long‐run underperformance of acquirers, preserving in this way efficiency in the takeover markets.     

STOCK PRICES AND INFLATION

Numerous empirical studies establish that inflation has a negative short‐run effect on stock returns but few studies report a positive, long‐run Fisher effect for stock returns. Using stock price and goods price data from six industrial countries, we show that long‐run Fisher elasticities of stock prices with respect to goods prices exceed unity and range from 1.04 to 1.65, which tends to support the Fisher effect. We also find that the time path of the response of stock prices to a shock in goods prices exhibits an initial negative response, which turns positive over longer horizons. These results help reconcile previous short‐run and long‐run empirical evidence on stock returns and inflation. Also, they reveal that stock prices have a long memory with respect to inflation shocks, such that investors should expect stocks to be a good inflation hedge over a long holding period. JEL Classification: G12     

Post-acquisition performance in the short and long run. Evidence from the Copenhagen Stock Exchange 1993–1997

The paper investigates the short-run price adjustment around acquisition announcements and the long-run upward bias of cross-sectional average buy-and-hold returns. The geometric Brownian motion model is applied to decompose the cross-sectional average long-run returns into transformed mean and volatility components. The decomposition improves the interpretation of security performance. The methodology is demonstrated on the security performance of bidding firms listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange. The most surprising finding is that the long-run abnormal return after three years is not significantly different from zero. This implies that the bidding firms do not under-perform relative to the market. This result stands in contrast to findings in other studies and it may reflect that earlier studies do not adjust correctly for the volatility component. These current findings indicate that the market efficiency hypothesis is intact in the long run. It is only in the very short run, a few days around acquisition announcements, that the market makes a significant adjustment to uphold the efficiency hypothesis.     

Long‐term Performance of Greek IPOs

We analyse the long‐run performance of 254 Greek IPOs that were listed during the period 1994–2002, computing buy‐and‐hold abnormal returns (BHAR) and cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) over 36 months of secondary market performance. The empirical results differ from international evidence and reveal long‐term overperformance that continues for a substantial interval after listing. Measuring these returns in calendar time, we find statistical significance with several of the benchmarks employed. We also find that long‐term overperformance is a feature of the mass of IPOs conducted during a pronounced IPO wave. Cross‐sectional regressions of long‐run performance disclose several significant factors. The study demonstrates that although Greek IPOs overperform the market for a longer period, underperformance eventually emerges, in line with much international evidence. Our interpretation is that the persistence of overperformance over a significant interval is due to excessive supply of issues during the ‘hot IPO period’. Results associated with pricing during the ‘hot IPO period’ indicate positive short‐ (1‐year), medium‐ (2‐year) and negative long‐term (3‐year) performance.     

Do Privatization IPOs Outperform in the Long Run?

This paper investigates the long-run stock returns of privatization initial public offering (IPO) firms using a sample of 241 privatization IPOs from 42 countries during the period 1981-2003. We compare one-, three-, and five-year holding period returns of privatization IPOs to those of the domestic stock market indices and to size and size- and book-to-market equity ratio (BM)-matched firms from the same countries. Consistent with previous studies, we find that privatization IPOs significantly outperform their domestic stock markets in the long run. However, they show less consistent abnormal long-term stock performance relative to their size or size- and BM-matched benchmark firms.     

IPO Failure Risk

We explore the factors associated with historical IPO failures by developing an IPO failure prediction model that includes accounting information as well as proxies for the role of information intermediaries and other IPO deal–related characteristics. We document statistically significant differences in failure models applicable to nontech versus high tech IPOs, and these structural differences are largely driven by accounting‐based proxies for firms' investments in intangible assets, operating performance, and financial leverage. We also develop parsimonious, predominantly accounting‐based, strictly out‐of‐sample (i.e., no hindsight) IPO failure forecasting models for each of the two sectors. We find that our forecasts are negatively associated with one‐year post‐IPO abnormal returns. A pseudo‐hedge strategy of going short (long) in high (low) failure risk portfolios yields returns of economically significant magnitudes over the one‐year horizon, and is robust to alternative returns methodologies. Further results suggest that IPO long‐run returns anomalies may persist, but they take different forms for high‐tech and nontech IPOs.     

Stock returns and income inequality: Asymmetric evidence from state level data in the U.S.

We assess the impact of stock returns on income inequality in the U.S. using linear and nonlinear models. When we use income inequality data from the U.S. as a whole, we only find un-equalizing effects of stock returns in the short run. However, when we estimate the models for each state individually, the linear model yields significant short-run effects in 38 states that last into the long run in 17 states. The numbers increase to 42 and 24, respectively, when we estimate the nonlinear model. In the most affected states, we find that positive stock returns have un-equalizing effects on income inequality and negative returns have equalizing effects.     

Price Performance Following Share‐Repurchase Announcements by Closed‐End Funds

We investigate the price performance of closed‐end funds that announce share‐repurchase programs. Closed‐end funds experience positive average stock‐price reactions to the announcements. The long‐run buy‐and‐hold abnormal returns of repurchasing funds over the subsequent three years are significantly higher than a nonrepurchasing control sample matched by size, type, investment style and geographic diversification. Funds with larger discounts, international funds, equity funds, and funds that announce larger repurchases or frequently announce repurchases, experience more positive stock‐price reactions. Except for larger repurchases, the same characteristics are associated with more positive long‐run buy‐and‐hold returns.     

Consolidation and value creation in the insurance industry: The role of governance

We examine the long run performance of M&A transactions in the property–liability insurance industry. We specifically investigate whether such transactions create value for the bidders’ shareholders, and assess how corporate governance mechanisms, internal and external, affect such performance. Our results show that M&A create value in the long run as buy and hold abnormal returns are positive and significant after 3 years. While tender offers appear to be more profitable than mergers, our multivariate evidence does not support the conjecture that domestic transactions create more value than cross-border transactions. Furthermore, positive returns are significantly higher for frequent acquirers and in countries where investor protection is weaker. Internal corporate governance mechanisms, such as board independence, and CEO share ownership, are also significant determinants of the long run positive performance of bidders.     

A tale of values-driven and profit-seeking social investors

The segmentation of the socially responsible investing (SRI) movement with a values-versus-profit orientation solves the puzzling evidence that both socially responsible and controversial stocks produce superior returns. We derive that the segment of values-driven investors primarily uses “negative” screens to avoid controversial stocks, while the profit-driven segment uses “positive” screens. As the result of an empirical analysis over the period 1992-2008, we base our segmentation on investment screens that help us to examine whether values affect prices. We find that, although the profit-driven segment earns abnormal returns in the short run, these profit-generating opportunities do not persist in the long run for SRI stocks. However, our conclusions highlight the observation that different views on SRI can be complementary in the short run.     

Disclosure Risk and Price Drift

Disclosures play an apparently critical role in the empirical regularity of the short‐run momentum and long‐run reversal in stock returns. Motivated by this evidence, this paper integrates an analysis of disclosures within an asset pricing model to arrive at a framework in which disclosures and asset returns are jointly determined. Disclosures resolve uncertainty, but the increased information flow also raises the risks during the disclosure period. When disclosures and asset returns are modeled jointly, apparently good news is associated with the upward revision of future disclosure risks. The model generates predictions that have the outward appearance of short‐run momentum and long‐run reversal.     

Investment dynamics of fund managers under evolutionary games

We investigate the investment behavior of fund managers in financial markets according to evolutionary dynamics. We consider both the absolute and relative portfolio returns in the payoff gradient, to which the fund managers respond, and find the equilibrium proportion of risky investment. Compared to the case where only relative performance affects the payoff gradient, we find that, as the absolute performance affects the managers’ belief, the equilibrium of long and short positions increases. If short sales are not allowed, negative excess returns will force the managers to stay out of the market until the excess return becomes positive. Furthermore, we use a quadratic function to depict the relative performance. The quadratic setting captures the exaggerated sentiments of winners and losers arising from certain behavioral biases, and leads to a lower speed of convergence, which implies that herding decelerates and the managers are likely to adhere longer to their own strategies.     

Dividend Dynamics,Learning, and Expected Stock Index Returns

We present a latent variable model of dividends that predicts, out‐of‐sample, 39.5% to 41.3% of the variation in annual dividend growth rates between 1975 and 2016. Further, when learning about dividend dynamics is incorporated into a long‐run risks model, the model predicts, out‐of‐sample, 25.3% to 27.1% of the variation in annual stock index returns over the same time horizon, with learning contributing approximately half of the predictability in returns. These findings support the view that investors' aversion to long‐run risks and their learning about these risks are important in determining stock index prices and expected returns.     

Stock Returns and Operating Performance of Securities Issuers

We examine long‐run stock returns and operating performance around firms’ offerings of common stock, convertible debt, and straight debt from 1985 to 1990. We find that pre‐issue abnormal returns are positive and significant for stock issuers, but not for convertible and straight debt issuers. The post‐issue mean returns show that common stock and convertible debt issuers experience underperformance during the post‐issue periods, but straight debt issuers do not. Consistent with these results, common stock issuers experience the best pre‐issue operating performance among all three types of issuers, and operating performance declines during the post‐issue periods for common stock and convertible debt issuers. Using a new approach in linear model estimations to correct heteroskedasticity and to adjust for finite sample, we find a positive relation between post‐issue operating performance and issue‐period stock price reactions. The results suggest that future operating performance is anticipated at the issue and that securities issues provide information on issuers’ future performance.     

Pension Fund Manager Tournaments and Attitudes Towards Corporate Characteristics

Abstract:  This paper explores the relationship between the tournament incentives of pension fund managers and the characteristics of equities they choose to hold. Using a comprehensive data set on pension fund portfolio holdings, we determine the intensity of fund manager tournaments by sorting pension funds into portfolios based on the number of concurrent managers each pension fund employs. We then investigate which corporate characteristics are preferred by each of these portfolios by estimating share selection models that include a range of corporate characteristics that are expected to shape the returns to investment in stocks over the short and long run. We find that the intensity of the tournament faced by fund managers plays a significant role in shaping preferences over corporate characteristics. Managers facing more intense tournaments exhibit significantly weaker preferences for attributes associated with long run payoffs, such as social performance and growth potential, and significantly stronger preferences for short term attributes, such as operational efficiency, when compared to managers that face weak or no tournament incentives.     

Stocks,bonds and the investment horizon: a test of time diversification on the French market

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the relative performance of stocks and bonds for various investment horizons on the French market. We use a new matched block bootstrap approach to take account of estimation risk. Furthermore, in the light of non-normality of returns, we use two different risk approaches as inputs in portfolio optimization: the traditional variance, and a downside risk measure, the semi-variance. Our results suggest that an investor should avoid bonds in the long run due to the time diversification effect.