Monetary policy and corporate default

When a corporation issues debt with a fixed nominal coupon, the real value of future payments decreases with the price level. Forward-looking corporate default decisions therefore depend on monetary policy through its impact on expected inflation. We build a general equilibrium economy with deadweight bankruptcy costs that demonstrates how nominal rigidities in corporate debt create an important role for monetary policy even in the absence of standard nominal frictions such as staggered price setting in the output market. Under a passive nominal interest rate peg, the direct effects of a negative productivity shock combine with deflation to produce strong incentives for corporate default. A debt-deflationary spiral results when there are real costs of financial distress. Inflation targeting eliminates this amplification mechanism but full inflation targeting requires permitting the nominal interest rate to depend explicitly on credit market conditions.     

Tranching and Rating

In this paper we analyse the source and magnitude of marketing gains from selling structured debt securities at yields that reflect only their credit ratings, or specifically at yields on equivalently rated corporate bonds. We distinguish between credit ratings that are based on probabilities of default and ratings that are based on expected default losses. We show that subdividing a bond issued against given collateral into subordinated tranches can yield significant profits under the hypothesised pricing system. Increasing the systematic risk or reducing the total risk of the bond collateral increases the profits further. The marketing gain is generally increasing in the number of tranches and decreasing in the rating of the lowest rated tranche.     

Currency-Induced Credit Risk in a Dollarized Economy

We analyze the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on corporate credit default in a dollarized economy. The application, before an exogenous exchange rate shock, of a new regulation concerning currency-induced credit risk (CICR) in the Peruvian banking system created natural conditions for a comparison between exposed and unexposed corporate borrowers. We use firm-level data to find that CICR and debt dollarization have opposite effects on credit risk. While CICR increases default, debt dollarization reduces it. Our results suggest that banks transfer exchange risk as a hedging mechanism by lending to such borrowers in dollars only.     

A Macrofinance View of U.S. Sovereign CDS Premiums

Premiums on U.S. sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) have risen to persistently elevated levels since the financial crisis. We examine whether these premiums reflect the probability of a fiscal default—a state in which a balanced budget can no longer be restored by raising taxes or eroding the real value of debt by increasing inflation. We develop an equilibrium macrofinance model in which the fiscal and monetary policy stances jointly endogenously determine nominal debt, taxes, inflation, and growth. We show that the CDS premiums reflect the endogenous risk-adjusted probabilities of fiscal default. The calibrated model is consistent with elevated levels of CDS premiums but leaves dynamic implications quantitatively unresolved.     

Using Corporate Inflation Protected Securities to Hedge Interest Rate Risk

In the first half of 2008, rising inflation became a concern, but by the fall the focus was on deflation. Such shifts in the outlook for inflation represent a significant risk for some companies, particularly those whose revenues and profits are negatively affected by increases in inflation and rates. For such companies, the use of long‐term fixed‐rate debt will provide at least a partial hedge against increased rates. Less widely appreciated is that even companies whose profits move up and down with inflation face considerable risk from fluctuations in interest rates. Conventional wisdom holds that floating‐rate debt hedges this risk. But this article argues that floating‐rate debt still leaves a company exposed to increases in real interest rates. Inflation‐sensitive companies such as utilities can use corporate inflation‐protected securities (CIPS) to hedge their real interest rate risk as well as inflation risk. In addition to its hedging benefits, CIPS also have the potential to reduce borrowing costs by satisfying growing investor demand for high‐quality securities that provide inflation protection (including demand sources like the recent restoration of French savings accounts to inflation).     

宏观经济因素、企业家信心与公司融资选择

本文研究经济周期、信贷风险、信贷配给、股市表现和企业家信心对公司融资选择的影响,发现宏观经济上行时,公司的融资偏好为股权—债务,而宏观经济衰退时,公司的融资偏好则调整为债务一股权;信贷配给增加后,股权融资的概率上升;银行不良贷款不影响公司融资选择;企业家对经济前景越有信心,债务融资的可能性就越大。研究结果表明,我国上市公司不存在单一的股权融资偏好,而且公司融资决策基本符合最优融资顺序理论。     

A reduced form model of default spreads with Markov-switching macroeconomic factors

We examine the ability of observed macroeconomic factors and the possibility of changes in regime to explain the proportion of yield spreads caused by the risk of default in the context of a reduced form model. For this purpose, we extend the Markov-switching risk-free term structure model of Bansal and Zhou (2002) to the corporate bond setting and develop recursive formulas for default probabilities, risk-free and risky zero-coupon bond yields as well as credit default swap premia. The model is calibrated with consumption, inflation, risk-free yields and default data for Aa, A and Baa bonds from the 1987 to 2008 period. We find that our macroeconomic factors are linked with two out of three sharp increases in the spreads during this sample period, indicating that the spread variations can be related to macroeconomic undiversifiable risk.     

Corporate yield spreads and real interest rates

The effect of inflation on the credit spreads of corporate bonds is investigated utilising real instead of nominal interest rates in extensions of the models proposed by Longstaff and Schwartz (1995) and Collin-Dufresne et al. (2001). Inflation is a critical, non-default, component incorporated in nominal bond yields, whose effect has not been considered by existing credit spread theory. In this sense the only true test of models of credit spread pricing must utilise real rates. To illustrate these requirements the Canadian bond data of Jacoby, Liao, and Batten (2009) is utilised. This Canadian data accommodates callability and the tax effects otherwise present in U.S. bond markets. The relation with historical default rates of both U.S. and Canadian bonds is also investigated since this approach is clean of both callability and tax effects. Overall, the analysis provides additional insights into the theoretical drivers of credit spreads as well as helping to explain observed corporate bond yield behaviour in financial markets.     

Rollover Risk and Credit Risk

Our model shows that deterioration in debt market liquidity leads to an increase in not only the liquidity premium of corporate bonds but also credit risk. The latter effect originates from firms' debt rollover. When liquidity deterioration causes a firm to suffer losses in rolling over its maturing debt, equity holders bear the losses while maturing debt holders are paid in full. This conflict leads the firm to default at a higher fundamental threshold. Our model demonstrates an intricate interaction between the liquidity premium and default premium and highlights the role of short‐term debt in exacerbating rollover risk.     

Leverage Choice and Credit Spreads when Managers Risk Shift

We model the debt and asset risk choice of a manager with performance‐insensitive pay (cash) and performance‐sensitive pay (stock) to theoretically link compensation structure, leverage, and credit spreads. The model predicts that optimal leverage trades off the tax benefit of debt against the utility cost of ex‐post asset substitution and that credit spreads are increasing in the ratio of cash‐to‐stock. Using a large cross‐section of U.S.‐based corporate credit default swaps (CDS) covering 2001 to 2006, we find a positive association between cash‐to‐stock and CDS rates, and between cash‐to‐stock and leverage ratios.     

信用债违约特征与市场展望

从总量的角度来看,信用债违约主体数量呈现上升的趋势,违约主体的行业、地区分布相对较为分散,各主体的违约特征呈现多元化的趋势,受经济增速下行压力加大、民企再融资收紧、股票质押爆仓等因素的影响较为明显。结合微观企业违约的最新特点,在信用风险分析的过程中需要重点关注企业是否发生了投资激进、短债长投、公司治理风险、财务舞弊等问题。建议正本清源,加强对财务造假的惩治力度,强化企业信息披露,推进社会信用体系建设,发挥民营企业信用缓释工具作用。     

From equity to default correlation with taxes

For fixed income investment, the preponderant risk is the clustering of defaults in the portfolio. Accurate prediction of such clustering depends on the knowledge of default correlation. We develop models with exogenous debt and endogenous debt to predict default correlations from equity correlations based on a self-consistent structural framework. We also examine how taxes affect the prediction of default correlations based on the two models. The empirical analysis shows that the corporate taxes tend to decrease default correlations, while personal taxes could increase or decrease default correlations. Our default correlation model with exogenous debt does a better job of predicting default correlations for high quality bonds, while the one with endogenous debt predicts more accurately for lower rated bonds. Our studies not only theoretically improve the modeling of default correlation in the structural setting but also shed new light on various aspects of default correlations and thereby help financial practitioners price credit derivatives more accurately and formulate more effective strategies to manage default risk of credit portfolios.     

A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt

We develop a simple approach to valuing risky corporate debt that incorporates both default and interest rate risk. We use this approach to derive simple closed-form valuation expressions for fixed and floating rate debt. The model provides a number of interesting new insights about pricing and hedging corporate debt securities. For example, we find that the correlation between default risk and the interest rate has a significant effect on the properties of the credit spread. Using Moody's corporate bond yield data, we find that credit spreads are negatively related to interest rates and that durations of risky bonds depend on the correlation with interest rates. This empirical evidence is consistent with the implications of the valuation model.     

Evaluating corporate credit risks in emerging markets

Corporate leverage among emerging market firms went up considerably after the 2007–09 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). We investigate how the increased emerging market corporate leverage in the post-GFC period (2010–15) impacted the underlying credit risk, compared to the pre-GFC (2002–2006) and GFC (2007–09) periods. Using firm-level credit risk, financial, and balance sheet data for 350 firms in 23 emerging markets, we find that leverage growth leads to a significant increase in corporate credit default swap (CDS) spreads only in the post-GFC period, and the incremental effect is mainly evident among risky firms (firms with high leverage and idiosyncratic volatility). In contrast, emerging market CDS spreads during the GFC period are mainly driven by global market risk factors. The post-GFC corporate debt vulnerability is mitigated for high growth prospect firms and firms domiciled in countries with high net capital inflows and superior governance. While corporate leverage growth impacts aggregate corporate credit risk, there is no evidence that it increases sovereign credit risk. Our paper contributes to the recent literature on potential sources of default risk in emerging markets.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Pricing of Collateralized Debt Obligations

We use the information in collateralized debt obligations (CDO) prices to study market expectations about how corporate defaults cluster. A three‐factor portfolio credit model explains virtually all of the time‐series and cross‐sectional variation in an extensive data set of CDX index tranche prices. Tranches are priced as if losses of 0.4%, 6%, and 35% of the portfolio occur with expected frequencies of 1.2, 41.5, and 763 years, respectively. On average, 65% of the CDX spread is due to firm‐specific default risk, 27% to clustered industry or sector default risk, and 8% to catastrophic or systemic default risk.     

Modelling bonds and credit default swaps using a structural model with contagion

This paper develops a two-dimensional structural framework for valuing credit default swaps and corporate bonds in the presence of default contagion. Modelling the values of related firms as correlated geometric Brownian motions with exponential default barriers, analytical formulae are obtained for both credit default swap spreads and corporate bond yields. The credit dependence structure is influenced by both a longer-term correlation structure as well as by the possibility of default contagion. In this way, the model is able to generate a diverse range of shapes for the term structure of credit spreads using realistic values for input parameters.     

Sovereign credit spreads

The paper develops a structural credit risk model to study sovereign credit risk and the dynamics of sovereign credit spreads. The model features endogenous default and recovery rates that both depend on the interaction between domestic output fluctuations and global macroeconomic conditions. We show that sovereigns choose to default at higher levels of economic output once global macroeconomic conditions are bad. This yields to default rates and credit spreads that are substantially higher compared to normal times. We derive closed-form expressions for sovereign debt values and default times and focus on the dynamics of sovereign credit spreads. As opposed to standard theories of sovereign debt, this paper’s structural model generates much richer default patterns and non-linearities through regime-shifts in the global macroeconomic environment. Moreover, changes in the global environment reveal the interconnectedness of the financial system.     

The Default Premium and Corporate Bond Experience

The development of organized markets for speculative-grade corporate debt has provided financial researchers with an opportunity to examine the pricing of default risk. By incorporating previous work on the default experience of low-rated corporate debt, this paper presents an introduction to risk-neutral models of risky-bond pricing and uses these to examine the relationship between the default premium embodied in bond yields and actual default rates. The contribution of macroeconomic information to the default premium is also examined. The author finds that holders of low-grade bonds have, on average, been compensated for losses due to default.     

民营企业债务违约是内因驱动吗？——基于短贷长投和多元化经营视角的分析

不同于以往从外部因素的角度关注民营企业债务问题,本文从企业自身行为出发分析了民企债务违约是否由内因驱动。具体地,本文考察了短贷长投和多元化经营对民营企业债务违约的影响。结果发现,总体上短贷长投以及多元化程度提高了民企债务违约的可能性。从传导机制上看,短贷长投和多元化降低了企业的盈利水平、提高了过度负债、增加了代理成本,并通过以上三个渠道提高了企业债务违约的可能性。从异质性结果来看,信贷紧缩会加大短贷长投对债务违约的促进作用。对于政府支持的行业而言,短贷长投和多元化引发的债务违约问题更严重。最后,更多的短贷长投和多元化在决策得当情况下不会引发债务违约风险。本文的结果表明,民营企业债务违约主要是由内因驱动,即由企业在“求大”“上层次”的心理下实施的粗放式发展模式驱动。本文对于追溯民企违约的根源、精准施策进而更好地支持民企发展具有一定的启示。     

On the Term Structure of Default Premia in the Swap and LIBOR Markets

Existing theories of the term structure of swap rates provide an analysis of the Treasury–swap spread based on either a liquidity convenience yield in the Treasury market, or default risk in the swap market. Although these models do not focus on the relation between corporate yields and swap rates (the LIBOR–swap spread), they imply that the term structure of corporate yields and swap rates should be identical. As documented previously (e.g., in Sun, Sundaresan, and Wang (1993)) this is counterfactual. Here, we propose a model of the default risk imbedded in the swap term structure that is able to explain the LIBOR–swap spread. Whereas corporate bonds carry default risk, we argue that swap contracts are free of default risk. Because swaps are indexed on "refreshed"-credit-quality LIBOR rates, the spread between corporate yields and swap rates should capture the market's expectations of the probability of deterioration in credit quality of a corporate bond issuer. We model this feature and use our model to estimate the likelihood of future deterioration in credit quality from the LIBOR–swap spread. The analysis is important because it shows that the term structure of swap rates does not reflect the borrowing cost of a standard LIBOR credit quality issuer. It also has implications for modeling the dynamics of the swap term structure.