Export diversification,composition, and economic growth: Evidence from cross-country analysis

We investigate the export-growth relationship at disaggregate levels – disaggregation both at the country level and at the level of exports – focusing on the diversification and the composition of exports of countries. In a sample of 65 countries for the period 1965–2005 the dynamic panel estimation reveals that both diversification and composition of exports are important determinants of economic growth after controlling for the impacts of other variables like lagged income, investment, and infrastructure. There is a critical level of export concentration beyond which increasing export specialization leads to higher growth. Below this critical level, diversification of exports matters for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Growth of high technology exports also contributes tothe output growth; the relationship becomes stronger for countries that have share of manufacturing exports in their total exports greater than the world average. These results are robust even when the dataset isclassified in four sub-panels based on the export-economic growth relationship.     

对外开放与发展中国家的收入不平等:基于亚洲和拉美国家的比较研究

本文基于要素禀赋理论,在将劳动力划分为低、中、高技能三类的基础上,选取亚洲和拉丁美洲部分发展中国家1960-2005年的数据,建立非平衡面板模型,分析两地区的开放对国内收入分配的影响。实证结果表明,亚洲和拉丁美洲发展中国家的对外开放确实对国内收入不平等起到推动作用。目前的开放有利于中等技能劳动力相对丰裕的发展中国家,而不利于低技能劳动力相对丰裕的国家。总体的贸易依存度对拉美不平等的推动作用更大,但外资对亚洲不平等的推动作用更大;制造业出口倾向于扩大拉美国家的收入差距而缩小亚洲国家的收入差距。     

Export Specialisation and Local Economic Growth

This paper aims to provide empirical evidence on whether export specialization or diversification is better for local economic growth. Using export data from 354 magisterial districts of South Africa for 1996 and 2001 we estimate spatial growth regressions that include measures of the degree of export specialization and diversification. Overall, exporting regions outperform other (less or non‐) exporting regions. Also, we find that export specialisation, rather than export diversification, has been associated with local economic growth; with specialization in mining and agriculture being especially beneficial. Our results support the view that specialization in a locality’s area of comparative advantage is good for local economic development. We also find that localities with higher initial levels of human capital, and higher subsequent population growth, performed better. This is consistent with the belief that policies aimed at strengthening human capital and improving agglomeration economies, will enhance local economic development.     

Effects of export product diversification on quality upgrading: an empirical study

This paper empirically examines the effects of export product diversification on overall export quality in a panel data set of 115 countries from 1970 to 2010. It uses the data sets of the overall export quality and three export diversification measures of the International Monetary Fund: the extensive margin (variation in the number of new products exported), the intensive margin (variation in export values among existing exports), and the overall (Theil) index. It finds that export quality has only been increasing with a higher variation in export values among existing exports in low- and lower-middle-income countries. It also observes that export quality has been increasing with both a higher variation in export values among existing exports and new products exported in upper-middle- and high-income countries. The results are robust to the changing measures of controls in the benchmark model, the inclusion of many other controls; i.e. various measures of globalization, country size, factor endowments, macroeconomic stance, etc., and the exclusion of outliers.     

非互惠的零关税待遇是否促进了受惠国的出口多样化——基于中美对非洲贸易政策的比较研究

非互惠的优惠贸易待遇是世界贸易组织和国际社会支持发展中国家尤其是最不发达国家发展的重要工具。为了评估该政策的效果,本文以中美对非洲实施的零关税待遇为例,采用2001—2017年HS8位贸易数据从整体、行业和区域层面评估了两种政策对受惠国出口多样化产生的影响。结果显示,美国零关税待遇分为AGOA-GSP和AGOA-服装两个条款,中国零关税待遇(FOCAC)在遵循WTO规则、受惠商品范围、受惠国家标准、原产地标准及政策有效期方面均优于AGOA-GSP,但在原产地标准灵活度和政策优惠力度方面低于AGOA-服装。这些特征导致三类政策对受惠国出口多样化的影响产生显著的差异。整体上,FOCAC和AGOA-服装对受惠国出口多样化均产生了显著的积极影响,而AGOA-GSP的影响不显著;行业层面,FOCAC对受惠国制造业、矿业和农业的出口多样化均产生了显著的促进作用,而AGOA的两个条款对受惠国三个细分行业出口多样化的影响均不显著;区域层面,三类政策对受惠国出口多样化的影响仅在部分区域发挥效果。     

Caribbean Diversification and Development

Small Island Developing States generally adopt diversification as their primary development strategy, often with little success. Nevertheless, there is no empirical study specifically focusing on the pattern of diversification of these countries in relation to their development. The objective of this paper was to study the export diversification pattern by the intensive (a more equally spread export basket) and extensive (an increase in new export lines) product margin of 21 Caribbean countries in relation to their level of development using panel data. The results show that despite their limited ability to diversify, Caribbean countries, as has been found for other parts of the world, first diversify and subsequently respecialise though at a substantially lower level of income than other countries and that the intensive margin plays a greater role in this process.     

开放条件下制造业价值链攀升的影响因素研究——基于江苏制造业行业面板数据的分析

开放条件下的制造业地区专业化、企业规模、外贸出口对其价值链攀升具有不同的影响和作用。文章以江苏制造业为例,利用主成分分析测度行业价值链攀升状况,进而运用静态、动态面板数据模型考察制造业行业的地区专业化水平、企业规模、外贸出口对其价值链攀升的作用机理。研究发现：企业规模的壮大有助于制造业价值链攀升,制造业价值链攀升与地区专业化、企业规模三者之间存在长期的均衡关系,但地区专业化对制造业价值链攀升并无明显的促进作用,长期看,外贸出口并不能实现制造业攀升价值链的目标。此外,制造业各行业对总体截距的偏离还具有劳动、资本和知识技术密集型产业倒置的现象。     

Export Credit Guarantees and Export Performance: An Empirical Analysis for Germany

Recent literature finds that exporters are particularly vulnerable to financial market frictions. As a consequence, exports may be lower than their efficient levels. For this reason, many countries support exporters by underwriting export credit guarantees. The empirical evidence on the effects of those policies is, however, very limited. In this paper, we use sectoral data on export credit guarantees issued by the German government. We investigate whether those guarantees indeed do increase exports and whether they remedy the export‐restricting effect of credit market imperfections both on the sectoral and on the export‐market levels. Exploiting the sectoral structure of a rich three‐way panel data set of German exports, we control for unobserved heterogeneity on the country‐year, sector‐year and country‐sector dimensions. We document a robust export‐increasing effect of guarantees. There is some evidence that the effect is larger for export markets with poor financial institutions and in sectors that rely more on external finance.     

The regional trade dynamics of Turkey: a panel data gravity model

This paper analyzes the Turkish export and import flows with regard to regional clusters (RCs) and bilateral trade costs (BTCs) by using a panel data gravity model. We study the role of RCs and BTCs in two complementary parts: in the first part, we use an unbalanced panel data for 180 countries over the period 1960–2012, compiled from the DOTS database. We extend these estimations by running the data at four different time intervals, each representing different economic or political regimes in Turkey. In the second part, we repeat the same exercise at sectoral level for 176 countries over the period 1994–2010, using the BACI database. Aggregate estimates show that the gravity model is very effective in explaining the export and import flows of Turkey and that all close-by regions, including EU27, have a significant impact on trade flows of Turkey. We also find that the EU Customs Union has a negative effect on Turkish exports and a positive effect on imports. Estimates at selected time intervals reinforce aggregate estimates and sectoral level analyses indicate that while some regions contribute positively in all or the majority of sectors, others contribute negatively or produce mixed results.     

What Determines Export Diversification in the Development Process? Empirical Assessment

This paper assesses the role played by country‐specific factors as determinants of relative export diversification. Using a panel data set for 60 countries and 20 years (1985–2004), we confirm that even after clearing out differences in income per capita, cross‐country variability in the degree of export diversification is significant. In general, apart from per capita income, features influencing the size of accessible markets (domestic and foreign) are the most relevant and robust determinants of the export diversification process. Diversification opportunities grow if countries are large and not located far from economic core areas and when barriers to trade are restricted.     

中国出口技术复杂度真的赶上发达国家了吗

使用HS(1992)六位数分类商品贸易数据,从"出口重叠指数"、出口商品"相对平均单位价值"、不同技术层面上的出口商品"相对平均单位价值"三个方面,以部分发达国家为比较对象,实证考察了中国出口技术复杂度变动趋势。结果发现,与现有大多研究结论不同:中国出口技术复杂度与发达国家相比,尚存一定差距,特别是在高技术密集型出口产品领域,差距较大,而目前对发达国家的追赶上,主要表现在中等技术密集型产品领域。中国出口品的"专业化"既没有与发达国家"趋同",其技术复杂度也未赶上发达国家,中国出口增长不会导致发达国家所谓"工资收入不平等"和"贸易条件恶化";立足现实比较优势,顺应国际分工发展大势,应是未来一段时间内中国进一步提升出口技术复杂度的出发点。     

The Emergence of Iran in the World Car Industry: An Estimation of its Export Potential

In the past 10 years Iran has been emerging as a major car producer in the world. However, due to delays in economic reforms, Iranian car exports have not increased as much as production. This paper presents a first estimation of the Iranian export potential in the car industry. Based on new theoretical developments of the gravity equation, an empirical bilateral trade model is proposed. It includes sectoral variables (car production, import tariffs), as well as other original variables, such as expectations and hysteresis. We then develop a dataset which includes the 40 major car‐exporting countries in the world, 34 importing countries, a 10‐year time period as well as four car production groups. The model is then estimated by using alternative panel data estimators, such as those of Hausman and Taylor and dynamic estimators as well as transformed variables estimators. Export potential is finally calculated from the residuals of the model. Results show that Iranian current car exports are about 100 times less than their fitted values. This indicates that there is a significant export potential for Iran, especially toward India, China, Russia, as well as smaller neighbours (Turkey, Pakistan, Central Asian countries). As a result, Iran could become the major auto supplier in the Middle East. However, this requires the completion and success of ongoing economic reforms.     

与发展中国家的贸易是否扩大了美国的相对工资差距

对外贸易不仅直接影响着相对工资差距,还通过技术创新效应间接影响着相对工资差距。本文运用美国制造业1997-2006年的面板数据,实证分析了美国与发展中国家的贸易对美国制造业相对工资差距的影响。研究结论是:来自发展中国家劳动密集型产品的进口竞争没有扩大美国制造业所有行业的相对工资差距,美国劳动密集制造部门相对工资差距的扩大与来自发展中国家的进口竞争有一定的关联,但技术密集制造部门相对工资差距的扩大与其无关;美国对发展中国家的出口贸易以及国内的技术创新在很大程度上扩大了美国制造业的相对工资差距。     

Environmental regulations and the export performance of South Korean manufacturing industries: A dynamic panel approach

This paper investigates the relationships among environmental regulation, export performance, and factor intensity, using panel data from South Korea's manufacturing sector (1991–2009). A panel vector autoregression (VAR) model in first differences tests the relationships among the variables, while considering the results of heterogeneous panel unit root and cointegration tests. Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimations help determine dynamic series relationships, and panel-causality tests are run based on the results of GMM estimations. There is evidence of a positive short-run linear causal relation running from environmental regulation to export performance, suggesting that environmental-protection expenditure may constitute a comparative advantage. The short-run linear causal relation from export performance to investment in activities related to environmental protection is insignificant.     

Agricultural Export-Diversification and Economic Growth in Caribbean Countries: Cointegration and Error-Correction Models

This article uses cointegration and error-correction models to analyze the causal relationship between agricultural export diversification and economic growth in eight selected Caribbean countries using annual data from 1961 to 2000. The empirical results show that in the short run, agricultural export diversification Granger causes economic growth in Barbados and Belize. Noncausality exists for the other countries. In the long run, agricultural export diversification also Granger causes economic growth in the Dominican Republic. On the contrary, agricultural export diversification is the outcome of the economic growth process in Belize, Costa Rica, Haiti, and Jamaica, in the long run. Noncausality exists in Trinidad and Tobago. There is no evidence of bi-directional causality in any of the countries in either the short or long run.     

东亚生产网络分工提高了我国制造业的出口竞争力吗

在梳理东亚生产网络分工影响制造业竞争力的作用机理基础上,基于面板数据模型,验证了东亚生产网络分工对我国制造业出口竞争力的影响。实证分析结果表明:结合影响制造业行业竞争力的国内因素进行考察,东亚生产网络分工对我国制造业整体以及不同行业的出口竞争力均具有促进作用。进一步将东亚生产网络分工的作用效应进行分解,发现东亚生产网络分工主要是通过劳动生产率提升效应、技术外溢效应途径提升我国制造业整体的出口竞争力,但理论上所预期的规模经济效应并未发生促进作用。东亚生产网络分工对我国制造业出口竞争力的作用途径在制造业不同部门存在显著差异,一方面,资本、技术密集型制造业的出口竞争力的提升在很大程度上是由东亚生产网络分工所导致的劳动生产率效应所驱动,即便是此类融入东亚生产网络程度很高的制造业行业所获得的技术外溢效应并不显著。另一方面,劳动密集型制造业部门出口竞争力的提升却并非由东亚生产网络分工所导致的劳动生产率提升效应、技术外溢效应所推动。这种分工状况容易导致我国制造业比较优势的锁定效应,压缩我国制造业出口竞争力提升的空间。     

出口多样化与经济增长:理论及对中国的经验研究

本文在新古典主义生产函数的框架下,建立出口多样化促进经济增长的理论模型,分析了出口多样化产生的出口中学效应和干中学效应,利用中国的数据对该假说作进一步的计量检验。结果表明,中国出口的多样化程度先迅速提高后缓慢下降,加工贸易的发展促进我国出口垂直多样化程度的提高,而动态最小二乘法回归结果验证了我国出口多样化对经济增长的推动作用非常明显,并且垂直多样化的贡献度要更高于水平多样化。     

The export technology content, learning by doing and specialization in foreign trade

We examine empirically whether countries with relatively little production and export experience specialize in the production and export of more standardized and lower-technology products, and those with more production experience produce and export more recently developed and higher-technology products. Using panel data covering 127 countries and the period between 1970 and 1997, we find that export experience does help to account for the variation in export content. Exporting experience influences a country's export mix more than its production experience, suggesting that there may be a trade-induced component of learning by doing in foreign trade specialization.     

Towards a New Trade Policy Between the USA and Middle‐East Countries:Estimating Trade Resistance and Export Potential

At the time of the conclusion of free trade areas (FTAs) between the USA and Middle‐East and North African (MENA) countries, there is a lack of literature concerning the measurement of the current US export position with regards to these countries, and the US export potential in this area. From recent developments of gravity models, this paper derives an estimable equation which includes various trade resistance variables, notably border effects, multilateral resistance as well as specific bilateral effects. The model is tested in order to scrutinise the impact of these variables on US exports to MENA countries, as well as the US export potential in this area. To that end, a selection of panel data specifications is proposed, mainly Hausman and Taylor models as well as Arellano and Bond dynamic models. Results unambiguously indicate that as compared to the other OECD countries, the USA suffers from a substantial trade integration deficit with MENA countries. This is reflected by the strongly negative values of the US‐MENA bilateral fixed effects, as well as the high bilateral border effects. In addition, the estimated actual/potential US export ratio to these countries is only 0.76. Therefore, implementing an FTA between the USA and MENA countries may allow the former to progressively improve its export position in this area. This would also help MENA countries diversify their supplying sources.     

How does the geographic export diversification–performance relationship vary at different levels of export intensity?

We argue that the relationship between geographic export diversification and firm performance follows an S-curve relationship if export intensity is low and an inverted U-shape if export intensity is high. The S-shape curve occurs because firms have weaker incentives to deploy the resources needed for succeeding in foreign markets if they generate relatively low revenues in export markets compared to their domestic market. Firms highly committed to export markets, in contrast, face stronger incentives to accelerate their learning curve, which results in an inverted U-shape relationship. We examine our hypotheses using a panel of longitudinal archival data with over 2000 firm-year observations, which cover all of the possible export destination countries served by large Brazil-based exporters from 2001 to 2010. Our results imply that the degree of export intensity changes the cost-benefit relationship of geographic export diversification.