Managing the world's forests

Forests play a vital role in balancing natural systems: the stabilization of global climate and the management of water and land. 30% of the earth's total land area is forested. 66% of the tropical moist forests are in Latin America and the remainder in Africa and Asia. 75% of tropical dry forests are in Africa. Temperate forests are primarily in developed countries. Deforestation and misuse of forests occurs primarily in developing countries at significant social, economic, and environmental costs. Losses have occurred in fuelwood, fodder, timber, forest products, biological diversity, habitats, genetic materials for food and medicine. The World Bank's evolving role in forestry is briefly described. Agreement has not been reached among people or nations about the most appropriate means to balance conservation and development goals. The challenge is to stabilize existing forests and increase forest planting. The causes of forest degradation must be understood. Direct causes include agricultural encroachment, cattle ranching, fuelwood gathering, commercial logging, and infrastructure development. These direct causes are driven by economic, social, and political forces: market and policy failures, population growth, and poverty. The market failures include: 1) the lack of clearly defined property rights on forest resources for now and the future, 2) the conflict between individual and societal needs, 3) the difficulty in placing a value on nonmarket environmental services and joint products, and 4) the separation between private and social costs. The solution is action at the local, national, and global levels. Countries must establish forest policy. The existing government incentives which promote deforestation must be changed. For example, concession policy and royalty systems must be corrected; explicit and implicit export subsidies on timber and forest products must be stopped. Private incentives must be established to promote planting of trees, practicing preservation, and setting up sustainable management systems. Property rights must be clearly defined and land use policies must spell out forest use patterns. A global strategy for forest management is needed for conservation, protection, reforestation, agricultural and rural development, sustainable use, and research with funding.     

Oil, Macroeconomics, and Forests: Assessing the Linkages

How does an oil boom affect the forest cover of tropical oil-exportingcountries? What macroeconomic linkages and policies are decisive?A comparison of research findings on long-run land-use changesin eight tropical developing economies reveals that the directphysical impacts of the oil industry on forests are unquestionablyless than its derived macroeconomic impact. In most cases oilwealth indirectly but significantly protects tropical forests.The core mechanism is that oil rents cause macroeconomic "Dutchdisease" decreasing the price competitiveness of agricultureand logging, strongly diminishing pressures for forest degradationand deforestation. But domestic policy responses to oil wealthare also vital determinants of the forest outcome. When governmentsuse oil wealth for urban spending sprees, this reinforces thecore effect by pulling more labor out of land-using and forest-degradingactivities. When oil revenues finance road construction or frontiercolonization, however, the core forest-protective effect canbe reversed. Repeated currency devaluation and import protectionof land-using domestic sectors also increase pressures on forests.Other international capital transfers, like bilateral credits,aid, or debt relief, can have impacts similar to those of oilwealth, either alleviating pressures on forests or aggravatingspecific forest-detrimental policies. These insights point toforest-friendly safeguards that can realistically be made inthe design of structural adjustment programs, considering theimportant tradeoffs between development and conservation objectives.      

Rethinking the causes of deforestation: lessons from economic models.

Concern is rising over the deleterious effects of tropical deforestation. For example, the loss of forest cover influences the climate and reduces biodiversity, while reduced timber supplies, siltation, flooding, and soil degradation affect economic activity and threaten the livelihoods and cultural integrity of forest-dependent people. Such concerns have led economists to expand their efforts to model why, where, and to what extent forests are being converted to other land uses. This synthesis of the results of more than 140 economic models analyzing the causes of tropical deforestation brings into question many conventional hypotheses upon deforestation. More roads, higher agricultural prices, lower wages, and a shortage of off-farm employment generally lead to more deforestation. However, it is not known how technical change, agricultural input prices, household income levels, and tenure security affect deforestation. The role of macroeconomic factors such as population growth, poverty reduction, national income, economic growth, and foreign debt is also unclear. The authors nonetheless determine through their review that policy reforms included in current economic liberalization and adjustment efforts may increase pressure upon forests.     

Population,agriculture, and the environment in Africa

An overview is provided of the World Bank study about the interaction between rapid population growth, poor agricultural performance, and environmental degradation. The links between these 3 phenomena are identified as traditional methods of crop and livestock production, land tenure systems, women's responsibilities, and methods of forest use. When land was abundant and capital limited, pastoralism, shifting cultivation, and setting aside fallow land was possible. Mobility and allowances for natural regeneration of vegetation could not continue with rapid population growth. Permanent settlements developed but cultivation methods remained the same; the result was deterioration of soil fertility, low yields, and erosion of soil as occurred in Rwanda, Burkina Faso, and parts of Nigeria. Technological innovation has been slow and poor roads have interfered with a market oriented economy. Inappropriate pricing, exchange rates, and fiscal policies also prevent productivity gains. A heavy demand is placed on women's time. Demand for children is high and is stimulated by environmental degradation, food insecurity, land tenure systems, and cultural traditions. Child labor is needed. The demand for contraception is 30-50% in North Africa, 36-55% in Asia, and 40-60% in South America. Land ownership problems have arisen under community ownership and between herders and settlers. Solutions have ranged from land nationalization and arbitrary designation of individual ownership. Open access situations have developed and lent themselves to exploitation. Fuelwood needs have exacerbated the destruction of forests. Commercial logging accounted for 10-20% of the forest loss. New approaches are needed to link cross-sectionally population, the environment, an agriculture. Emphasis should be on resource conservation, family planning, and environmentally benign intensive farming. Agricultural production needs to grow at 4%/year, fertility lowered by 50% over 30 years, and deforestation slowed. Women's time constraints should b alleviated and productivity improved. Open access and state ownership should be stopped.     

以新思维审视中国外汇储备风险

外汇储备是一国国际经济活动往来形成的特殊的外币债权,中国经常项目、资本和金融项目的特点以及热钱的大规模流入决定了中国当前的外汇储备存在一定的不稳定因素。过多的外汇储备必将产生较大的机会成本风险,并且面临着较大且频繁的汇率风险以及境外金融机构倒闭和资产价格波动的风险,给国内的流动性控制和金融调控带来诸多的困难,增加了贸易摩擦的频率。要审时度势,通过加快国内经济结构调整、鼓励走出去、多元化运作储备资产等形式规避中国外汇储备所面临的风险。     

倪召兴的资本野心

真正"草根"出身的倪召兴,拿着1万元开始创业,20年后的今天已经成为在房地产和石油等领域、国内外叱咤风云的人物,连年跻身福布斯富豪之列。他的公司在加拿大威里斯顿盆地有400平方公里的油田,上百口油井;他是大股东的美国上市公司在美国墨西哥湾油田拥有600多平方公里的油田,600多口油井;他的公司在美国纽约大金融家居住区拥有600亩的贝德福德山庄地块;他的公司在香港葵涌风景迷人的贝澳海湾已经购得地块,将在那建起公司的海外总部大楼……倪召兴的下一步计划是逐步在华尔街分别打造地产、能源和矿产私募基金,未来进而成为在上述三大领域均有所作为,在全球控股拥有百幢顶尖写字楼、干吨黄金储量、日产万桶石油的综合性控股集团。这就是倪召兴策划已久的、惊人庞大的资本野心。     

江西省林下经济发展调查报告

大力发展林下经济是当前我国经济社会可持续发展的必然选择。江西省在发展林下经济方面的优势得天独厚。为了解当前江西省林下经济发展的状况,我们对江西省7县215户农户及林业企业进行问卷调查与实地走访,分析结果认为,林农在发展林下经济过程中还存在林区基础设施水平较差、林下经济发展政策宣传不到位、普通林农应对环境问题能力较弱、林下经济企业销售渠道单一、林农缺资金缺技术等问题,并提出一些相应的解决措施。     

Auditing and Governance in the forestry industry: Between protest and professionalism

In the context of the recent debate that was stimulated by Sutton and Arnold’s paper entitled “Toward a Framework for a Corporate Single Audit", this paper examines the impact of environmental audit and eco-labelling strategies on governance arrangements in the forestry industry. In particular, it shows how consumer-driven forest management audits sanctioned by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) could shift much of the responsibility for sustainable forest management from state bureaucracy to management control mechanisms within forest exploitation companies. The paper uses evidence from a case study of Leroy Gabon, a large Franco-German logging concession in the Congo basin rainforest, to analyse the impact of a third-party audit of forest management processes based upon FSC principles. The findings reveal tensions between claims to professionalism of the FSC (and one of its accredited auditors, i.e. Société Générale de Surveillance) on the one hand, and sustainability concerns of stakeholders (notably representatives of indigenous people, environmental campaigners, Friends of the Earth, and Rainforest Coalition) on the other.     

Creating financial value for tropical forests by disentangling people from nature

Efforts to address environmental problems have led to a rapid proliferation of mechanisms for creating financial value for nature. This paper argues that the creation of financial value for nature requires work to disentangle and frame the relation between people and nature so as to render this relation calculable, and that this work acts to alienate people from nature. To pursue and progress this argument, the paper analyses the work of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to establish a mechanism to create financial value for tropical forests based on their capacity to store carbon. The analysis finds that the UNFCCC’s work of disentanglement and framing, so as to render calculable the relation between people and forests, has created conditions that threaten to materially degrade the ecological value of tropical forest biodiversity and the cultural/spiritual value of forests to indigenous peoples. The findings support this paper’s argument that the alienation of people from nature is not simply a consequence of financial valuation, but rather is a necessary prerequisite for creating financial value for nature.     

Economic Parameters of Deforestation

In theory, economic instruments should overcome the market failuresthat lead to excessive deforestation. Secure property rightscould be established and enforced to eliminate the open accessproblem. In practice, the size of the welfare loss that arisesfrom market failures in the forest sector in the absence ofsuch first-best policies is determined by the incentives, prices,and policies faced by those who make decisions about land use.In many cases, the effects of policies on deforestation arenot straightforward. For example, there are conflicting viewson whether an increase in the price of logs leads to an increaseor a decrease in deforestation. The effect of a change in theprice of logs has particular relevance for the controversialdebate about the effect on deforestation of a ban on log exportsor other trade restrictions that lower the domestic price oflogs. This article provides an analytical framework for determiningthe effects of changes in economic policies and parameters ondeforestation. It models dynamic, profitmaximizing land-usechoices and obtains unambiguous comparative static results bydistinguishing between unmanaged and managed forests. The resultssuggest that measures to reduce the producer price of logs couldbe a second-best policy to reduce the pressures on the frontiersof unmanaged forests and to protect biodiversity.     

论我国农村土地所有者与代理者

我国农村土地归村农民集体所有已经不能适应形势发展的需要,存在的主要问题有:土地盲目流转,侵占农民利益;耕地保护不利,乱占耕地.究其原因主要是农村土地产权不到位,耕地保护缺乏真正的主体,因此必须明确农村土地的所有者及其代理者,我国农村土地的真正所有者应该是国家,而代理者应该是农民.由农民代表国家行使土地所有者权力,与规模经营、农业现代化并不矛盾,但是,应该防止土地兼并,国家应该从法律上予以规范.     

我国石油战略储备体系建设的若干思考

石油战略储备是关系到我国国家安全的重大问题。一方面,要建立和完善实物储备或现货储备,即讨论和呼声较高的石油战略储备,进一步完善相关制度设计;另一方面,还应抓紧建设战略储备体系的短板——石油期货储备。通过建立石油期货市场,加快推进石油期货交易,把金融安全与石油安全合并考虑,把石油现货储备、期货储备与外汇储备密切结合起来,建立外汇储备与石油储备的转换机制,使我国规模庞大的外汇储备服从、服务于国家的经济安全,提高国家的石油保障能力,从根本上保障我国的石油安全。     

外汇储备增长对货币供应量与物价水平影响的研究

本文首先介绍了中外学者关于外汇储备对货币供应量与物价水平影响的不同观点;然后,基于中央银行的资产负债表和货币数量理论,对外汇储备增长对货币供应量对物价水平的影响进行了理论分析;最后,重点结合我国的实际,分别从短期和长期两方面对外汇储备对我国货币供应量与物价水平的影响进行了实证检验。     

美国金融风暴的警示——实现国际收支平衡至关重要

近几年,我国国际收支不平衡的情况日益恶化,国际收支顺差的规模也不断扩大,主要体现在外汇储备的快速增长上;而由于我国的外汇储备投资的资产主要集中在美国国债及其他美元债券上,美国金融危机的爆发使得我国的外汇储备资产价值受到了严峻的挑战,文章指出外汇储备大量投资美元资产不仅使得我们承担了来自美国政府、美元汇率的风险,还使得我们不得不为美国的金融危机买单,而且外需拉动型的经济增长模式也不具有可持续性。因此文章建议从扩大内需、降低贸易顺差、控制外商直接投资、治理热钱流入四个方面,多管齐下切实纠正我国国际收支失衡的现状。     

Environmental problems and developing countries

The status of environmental conditions for forests, soils, water, air, and atmospheric changes is presented for developing countries. Loss and degradation of forests continue. The rate of cutting of moist tropical forests is 17-20 million hectares/year. The consequences would be eventual total destruction within several generations, lost soil and watershed protection, local climate change, and habitat destruction. The human toll can also be great as seen by the flooding deaths of 5000 Philippine villagers. Soil erosion is a greater danger than desertification. In sub-Saharan Africa, total harvest and yields of important food crops have declined compared to increases elsewhere in the world. In countries such as Costa Rica, Malawi, Mali, and Mexico the soil losses approximate .5-1.5% of gross domestic product annually. Progress has been made in water purification, but there are still nearly 1 million people in the developing world without access to clean water for drinking and bathing. 1.7 billion have inadequate sanitation. Access to sanitation in urban areas is on the rise. Waterborne diseases are a result of poor sanitation: 900 million cases of diarrheal disease/year, 500 million with trachoma, 200 million with schistosomiasis, or bilharzia, and 900 million from hookworm. Other diseases resulting from improper sanitation are cholera, typhoid, and paratyphoid. Water scarcity is another problem. Air quality is threatened by dust and smoke pollution which contribute to respiratory illnesses, by indoor burning of wood and charcoal particularly in rural Africa and south Asia, and high levels of lead from automobile emissions. Hundreds of thousands of people are affected through increased illness and even loss of mental functioning as in the case of lead poisoning. Atmospheric changes such as ozone depletion or global warming may not show their impact until decades later. The consequences are high levels of ultraviolet radiation which cause cancers, cataracts, and possibly immune system damage, and temperature increases which will increase the levels of the seas.     

Population growth and food supply in sub-Saharan Africa

It is argued in this article that sub-Saharan Africa, given its present institutions and endowments of capital and technology, is already dangerously close to overpopulation. The rapid growth of its population projected for the next decades will greatly increase human misery and depress economic development. Specifically, rapid population growth will have disastrous effects on the region's ability to increase exports and provide people with food. There must be a search for new ways in which these effects could be mitigated. In sub-Saharan Africa fertility either continues to be very high or is increasing, in part due to some decline in traditional practices that reduce fertility, such as prolonged breastfeeding. This situation and the expectation of declining mortality imply that African population growth may increase further. Currently, population in sub-Saharan Africa is about half that of India and a third of China. There are 2 main reasons why reduced fertility in the next few decades is unlikely in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole: Africa has low literacy, high infant and child mortality, and low urbanization; and average African fertility rates may even increase for the next 20 years or so. The question that arises is what are the implications of continuing and rapid population growth for the African food supply. The region's cereal production is largely restricted to 4 grains, i.e., millet, sorghum, maize, and rice. The volume of grain production is less, by weight, than 60% of the production of roots and tubers. There are 2 main differences between the output of these crops in sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world: yields/hectare are lower in Africa than in elsewhere; and yields have generally been decreasing or largely constant in Africa. The low productivity has several causes. Today, population pressure has brought diminishing returns to traditional agriculture in much of the Sahel and the savanna, in parts of East Africa, Southern Africa, and parts of the West African forest belt. There is also the absence of the Green Revolution, i.e., the use of new high yielding seeds and new technologies in agriculture that has led to marked increases in yields in most other parts of the world. A totally different and more productive agriculture might evolve if African governments were to fundamentally change their vision. Existing production technology could allow substantial increases in the yields of many crops if some basic changes were made in the policies affecting agriculture. A way to achieve such change would be to make farming profitable. The effect of population growth in diminishing returns to agriculture also lends urgency to the need for family planning. Generally, population policy in Africa badly needs strengthening.     

Macro and Micro Perspectives of Growth and Poverty in Africa

This article reviews trends in poverty, economic policies, andgrowth in a sample of African countries during the 1990s, drawingon the better household data now available. Experiences havevaried. Some countries have seen sharp drops in income poverty,whereas others have witnessed marked increases. In some countriesoverall economic growth has been pro-poor and in others not.But the aggregate numbers hide systematic distributional effects.Taking both macro and micro perspectives of growth and povertyin Africa, the article draws four key conclusions. First, economicpolicy reforms (improving macroeconomic balances and liberalizingmarkets) appear conducive to reducing poverty. Second, marketconnectedness is crucial to enable participation in the gainsfrom economic growth. Some regions and households by virtueof their remoteness were left behind when growth picked up.Third, education and access to land emerge as key private endowmentsto help households benefit from new economic opportunities.Finally, rainfall variations and ill health have profound effectson poverty outcomes, underscoring the significance of socialrisk management in poverty reduction strategies in Africa.     

The Impact of Economic Shocks in the Rest of the World on South Africa: Evidence from a Global VAR

The substantial change in South Africa’s trade patterns over the past two decades has affected the impact of economic shocks in major world economies on South Africa. To investigate the effect, we use a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model with time-varying trade weights to account for changing international trade linkages. We show that the long-term impact of a shock to Chinese GDP on South African GDP is much stronger in 2009 than in 1995, due to the substantial increase in South Africa’s trade with China since the mid-1990s. At the same time, the importance of the U.S. economy to South Africa diminished considerably. The results indicate one of the possible reasons why the recent global crisis did not affect South Africa as much as it affected developed economies. It also stresses the increased risk, to the South African and other economies, should China experience slower GDP growth.     

银行体系流动性过剩与货币政策有效性研究

导致银行体系流动性过剩的直接原因是基础货币投放规模过大和基础货币投放结构变化。银行体系流动性过剩的实质是货币市场的超额供给,是引发经济过热的潜在因素;"流动性过剩"并不是"用不了"或"用不出"的微观概念,而是"不应动用"或"不宜动用"的宏观概念。因国际收支持续高额顺差导致外汇储备高速增长,基础货币投放的内生性明显增强,致使央行的货币政策越来越受制于外部均衡状况,其金融宏观调控的有效性进一步削弱。     

Competitive effects of Basel II on US bank credit card lending

We analyze the potential competitive effects of the proposed Basel II capital regulations on US bank credit card lending. We find that bank issuers operating under Basel II will face higher regulatory capital minimums than Basel I banks, with differences due to the way the two regulations treat reserves and gain-on-sale of securitized assets. During periods of normal economic conditions, this is not likely to have a competitive effect; however, during periods of substantial stress in credit card portfolios, Basel II banks could face a significant competitive disadvantage relative to Basel I banks and nonbank issuers.