COMPLEXITY AND CLEAVAGE: DUAL EXPLANATIONS OF STRATEGIC DECISION-MAKING [I]

This paper presents a framework for the comparative analysis of strategic decision-making processes. It draws together and integrates predominant but previously disparate theories of decision-making. Examples are given of how decision-making processes may be characterized and, hence, facilitate comparison across all types of strategic decisions. Explanation of why decision processes may differ is from two perspectives. First, the complexity of the topic may lead to particular characteristics of the decision process. Secondly, the cleavage of interests which a topic arouses may also lead to particular aspects of decision processes. We argue that each decision topic has varying levels of both complexity and cleavage and four examples of strategic decisions are analyzed on these dimensions. We identify four profiles of decision-making processes associated with varying levels of complexity and cleavage and we finally suggest that our model may explain and empirically demonstrate variations across a large number of diverse strategic decisions.     

应急物流运输方案的决策模型研究

近几年来,应急物流越来越受到人们的瞩目。为了进一步加强应急物流的研究,本文从微观角度构建应急物资运输方案决策模型方向进行探索。鉴于有关应急物资运输方案决策的大量模型缺乏对风险决策的考虑,本文以运筹学风险决策工具效用函数为基础,提出在应急物流中面对的风险决策问题,以及如何利用效用函数构建模型进行决策才能达到目标的最优化,并与其他决策工具得出的结果相比较进一步完善模型。     

The effects of group decision-making process and problem-situation complexity on implementation attempts

The effects of group problem-solving method and problem-situation complexity on attempts at implementing group solutions were investigated in a laboratory-field setting. Group members were supervisory nurses from various organizations, who were randomly assigned to three groups in a balanced research design which included three group decision-making processes and three levels of problem-situation complexity in implementation. The dependent variable was the number of attempts at implementing group-derived solutions in home organizations. The results showed that structure in group decision-making processes led to increased rates of implementation attempts at all levels of problem-situation complexity. There was a significant complexity-by-process interaction effect among the decision-making processes, which supports the conclusion that the type of group decision-making process and the problem-situation complexity should be considered in order to optimize the number of implementation attempts.g     

SUCCESS IN DECISION MAKING: DIFFERENT ORGANIZATIONS, DIFFERING REASONS FOR SUCCESS

In an attempt to elucidate some possible conditions for success in managerial decision making, data were analysed from 53 cases of decisions in eight British organizations, five business firms and three non-business organizations (two universities and a District of the National Health Service). No clear relationships between features of the processes of making the decisions, and their successfulness were found until the business firms and the non-business organizations were separated. Clear differences then showed up, relatively speaking, in the conditions conductive to success. In the business firms, a successful decision was more likely to result from a decision-making process in which resources were available. In other words, in business a successful decision is most likely when sufficient information and sufficient means of implementation are to hand. By contrast, in the universities and the Health District, a successful decision was associated more with the social qualities of the decision-making process itself. In other words, in non-business organizations a successful decision is most likely when the right people participate and the people at the very top do not interfere too much.     

A virtual and anonymous, deliberative and analytic participation process for planning and evaluation: The Concept Mapping Policy Delphi

Integrating knowledge and values across a range of stakeholders and experts is a common goal of, and challenge in, forecasting and planning processes across numerous decision-making domains. In this paper we present a virtual and anonymous, deliberative and analytical participatory group process which we applied in a planning study. The process was a combination of concept mapping and a policy Delphi. The Concept Mapping Policy Delphi offers an iterative process that is meant to foster critical, dissensus-based thinking by a group about an evaluation problem. In particular, it offers a platform on which to structure the group brainstorming of ideas, integrates knowledge and values, and creates a shared conceptual framework for addressing evaluation problems. We discuss the merits and limitations of this process and compare it with other public engagement mechanisms for decision-making. We argue that the use of a Concept Mapping Policy Delphi is relevant in forecasting and decision-making processes that aim to integrate information which is from various disparate points of view in order to clarify arguments and values, democratize and mediate public participation, and/or provide strategic advice about scenarios or planning options, while mitigating the problematic aspects of face-to-face group processes.     

Structural model for analysis of key performance indicators for sustainable manufacturer–supplier collaboration: A grey-decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory-based approach

With growing competition in the market and dire need for sustainability, it has become imperative for companies to build long-term relationship with their supply chain partners through sustainable collaboration. Among these, the supplier–manufacturer relationship is crucial for improved organizational, business and sustainable performance. Sustainable collaboration with suppliers involves crucial decision-making processes such as continuous supplier monitoring and supplier development. Hence, a critical challenge that a company faces is to identify the key performance indicators (KPIs) for assessing the performance of a supplier for sustainable collaboration. In this regard, this study focuses on identification of KPIs for an Indian home appliance company through exhaustive discussions involving multiple decision-makers. Further, a grey-based decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) model is proposed in the study for analysing the importance levels among the fifteen KPIs based on multiple stakeholder perspectives. The results of the grey structural model indicate seven KPIs as influencing KPIs and eight KPIs as influenced KPIs. The KPI ‘Information disclosure’ has been identified as the most influential KPI for the evaluation of suppliers for sustainable collaboration. The implications drawn from the result analysis model can provide meaningful insights to managers for identifying strategies towards strengthening the supplier–manufacturer relationship and achieving organizational and market competence.     

Disentangling Alliance Management Processes: Decision Making, Politicality, and Alliance Performance

abstract    Using a sample of 106 organizations engaged in strategic alliances, we develop and test a framework of alliance-related organizational decision-making processes and their impact on alliance performance. With regard to direct effects, our results show a negative impact of decision-making recursiveness and no significant relationship for openness and procedural rationality. Acknowledging the importance of the organization's micropolitical context in which these decision processes are embedded, we also test the moderating influence of politicality. Our findings provide support for our hypotheses that in a context of low politicality, the decision-making characteristics of openness and procedural rationality have a positive influence, whereas recursiveness negatively affects alliance performance. In a context of high politicality, however, openness and procedural rationality exert a negative influence, and the negative impact of recursiveness is aggravated. We suggest that alliance-related decision making cannot be adequately understood without explicitly considering the micropolitical context in organizations.     

Decision-Making Patterns in Multilevel Governance: The contribution of informal and procedural interactions to significant multilevel decisions

To come to decisions in a multilevel setting, informal as well as procedural interactions are of importance. In this paper, we explored in a case study the decision-making patterns between informal interactions and procedural interactions, and the significance of the decisions resulting from different patterns.

We discovered five patterns of multilevel decision-making: top-down processes, bottom-up processes, collaborative decision-making, synchronization by procedures, and synchronization by interactions. We conclude that these patterns do have different results. Top-down and bottom-up processes often result in mutually extinguishing decisions, whereas the other patterns can result into decisions that matter, depending on the relationships between levels.     

Entrepreneurial metacognition: a study on nascent entrepreneurs

This paper contributes to uncovering the role of metacognition in the decision-making process of entrepreneurs. Specifically, we analyze nascent entrepreneurs in their process of start-up development while relying on metacognitive processes. The experiences of a sample of new venture initiatives are explored in two distinct phases, a start-up competition and the subsequent launch of their venture. Following the Gioia protocol, the study contextualizes the process in which social capital reinforces metacognitive processes. This process stimulates nascent entrepreneurs to consider alternatives, such as extending expertise outside the start-up. Moreover, we find that these processes support entrepreneurs and their teams in improving their decision-making processes. The findings support that nascent entrepreneurs rely heavily on the input of others in their start-up creation process, and contribute to new empirical insights about entrepreneurial metacognition. A dynamic model in which these relationships emerge is developed. The study’s results contribute to a better understanding of the antecedents and consequences of metacognitive processes in nascent entrepreneurship.

     

A fuzzy group decision-making approach in quality function deployment

Quality function deployment (QFD) is comprised of two major group decision-making processes. One is to collect the customer requirements from a group of customers, whereas the other is to determine the relationship between customer requirements and technical measures by a cross-functional team. Generally, different and/or even subjective opinions are quite often in a group decision-making process due to the limitations of experience and impreciseness. Obviously, the importance of each customer requirement and the relationship between customer requirements and technical measures are determined by a group of people with imprecision and vagueness. Under such circumstances, a fuzzy group decision-making approach can be applied in QFD to deal with a group decision-making process when the information is imprecise and fuzzy. Moreover, an example is provided as well as the computational steps to show this fuzzy group decision-making approach can be effectively used in QFD to make decisions with imprecision and vagueness.     

An artificial intelligence algorithmic approach to ethical decision-making in human resource management processes

Management scholars and practitioners have highlighted the importance of ethical dimensions in the selection of strategies. However, to date, there has been little effort aimed at theoretically understanding the ethical positions of individuals/organizations concerning human resource management (HRM) decision-making processes, the selection of specific ethical positions and strategies, or the post-decision accounting for those decisions. To this end, we present a Throughput model framework that describes individuals' decision-making processes in an algorithmic HRM context. The model depicts how perceptions, judgments, and the use of information affect strategy selection, identifying how diverse strategies may be supported by the employment of certain ethical decision-making algorithmic pathways. In focusing on concerns relating to the impact and acceptance of artificial intelligence (AI) integration in HRM, this research draws insights from multidisciplinary theoretical lenses, such as AI-augmented (HRM^(AI)) and HRM^(AI) assimilation processes, AI-mediated social exchange, and the judgment and choice literature. We highlight the use of algorithmic ethical positions in the adoption of AI for better HRM outcomes in terms of intelligibility and accountability of AI-generated HRM decision-making, which is often underexplored in existing research, and we propose their key role in HRM strategy selection.     

Finding common seasonal patterns among time series: An MDS approach

This paper provides an approach to the analysis of time series seasonal pattern similarities based on a special MDS approach — the non-metric SSA-I (Smallest Space Analysis) technique. Indices of dissimilarity for time series are defined generally while special cases drawn from the economic problems are treated by means of examples. The basic contributions of the paper are two-fold: First we extend the use of SSA-I to time series analysis by transforming the mutual relationship between (as well as within) the time series in a symmetric matrix. As a result, the tool of SSA-I developed by L. Guttman may easily be used. Second, by an introduction of non-metric techniques such as SSA-I in time series analysis we increase our capacity to deal with problems hitherto unsolved. In particular, ordinal data as well as behavioral data for which model processes are not defined and seasonal patterns similarities may be studied by our technique.     

An institutional perspective of public policy and network effects in the renewable energy industry: enablers or disablers of entrepreneurial behaviour and innovation?

This study extends theory on the effects of public policies stimulating technology demand and of industry network ties on firm-level entrepreneurial behaviour. We take an institutional perspective to develop a theoretical model examining the mechanisms through which public policies, regulatory uncertainty, and industry network ties affect firm-level entrepreneurial decision-making processes and the ability to introduce highly innovative products and to sustain superior performance. We focus on firm-level effects, which enables the study of the tension between institutional pressures of homogeneity and competitive pressures of heterogeneity for entrepreneurial decision-making processes in environments characterized by policy-induced market demands. To test our hypotheses, we draw on data from a large-scale survey among German renewable energy firms. Our results show that public policies can constrain firm innovativeness and risk-taking behaviour because they steer firms towards a more conservative attitude and discourage the pursuit of high-risk innovation projects. However, firms can counteract these influences and enhance their innovativeness by maintaining close network ties with research associations as we find that innovativeness and a highly innovative product portfolio are key success factors. In summary, these findings provide important implications for the study of public policy effects, industry network ties and entrepreneurial behaviour.     

Exploring social media usage in the public sector: Public employees' perceptions of ICT's usefulness in delivering value added

The present paper explores the effectiveness of the implementation and use of information and communication technologies (ICT) in the public sector, with a specific focus on the role of social media in improving both public decision-making processes and the quality of public services. We sought to deepen knowledge on this issue by disseminating structured questionnaires to Italian public servants, questioning them about the potentialities and criticalities of social media use in the public sector. Logistic regression analysis was used to analyse the data.The paper has two main goals. First, we aim to explore public servants' evaluation of social media's impact on public decision-making processes. Second, we are interested in understanding the main socio-demographic variables affecting public servants' perceptions about the importance of social media in these processes. This paper enriches the literature on public sector use of ICT and advances topical discussion on organizational change and decision-making processes in public administrations. In so doing, the paper reveals interesting practical and policy implications by highlighting the key aspects affecting social media's effectiveness and usefulness in the decision-making process and its impact on the public services delivered to the citizenry.     

Flexibility in Strategic Decision Making: Informational and Ideological Perspectives

Adaptation is a crucial challenge for organizations, and an important theme in the strategy and organization theory literature. We still have much to learn, however, about the strategic processes by which adaptation is achieved. In this paper we focus on a basic element in the adaptation process, i.e. flexibility within the strategic decision-making process. We concentrate on strategic decisions because these choices are the most important adaptations the firm makes. We suggest that the core of all organizational adaptation is a decision-making process. Unless the decision-making process itself is flexible, it is unlikely the organization can be flexible enough to adapt. We derive hypotheses concerning the factors that lead to flexibility (versus rigidity) from both information processing and ideological perspectives, and test them in a study involving 57 strategic decisions in 25 companies. Our results identify three contextual factors related to both perspectives -- including competitive threat, slack and uncertainty -- that are helpful in understanding flexibility in strategy decision making. While managers appear to be more flexible when decisions are uncertain, we found that in the very conditions where managers need the most flexibility (high competitive threat and low slack), they are least likely to be flexible.     

POLITICAL PROCESS AND THE FORMATION OF ECONOMIC POLICY

Institutional economics has some useful things to say about government policy-forming processes. It focuses attention on the structural components of government institutions which shape the direction of policy formation and its delivery. In this article, the author discusses how institutional models of government decision-making may be adapted to parliamentary systems of government. This approach has some merit because it rescues analysis of government processes from models based on the US constitutional system.     

On scales and decision-making based on arithmetic mean

The scales used in schools for the purpose of student assessment are ordinal. The average of ordinal values is often used for the evaluation and comparison of overall student performance. We demonstrate a theorem for the selection of scales invariant with respect to rank of average and compare scales according to this property. A uniformity criterion is also defined for the choice of the scale on which to calculate the average. Concatenated sets of grades from scales not belonging to the same category may bring about errors of rank and absurd averaging, which may have a heavy impact on related decision-making processes.     

The practice of decision-making—some evidence

The theory of scientific decision-making is a well developed and coherent discipline, which may be expected to have had some impact on the decision-making processes employed by actual firms. This paper reports the results of a survey of engineering firms in South Wales, and casts some doubt on the hypothesis that advances in decision analysis have had a descernible impact on the practice of business. Moreover, the primary reason for this lack of impact appears to be that decision analysis is not perceived as relevant to the decision-making needs of managers. The paper concludes with some suggestion for overcoming this obstacle to the application of decision analysis.     

IMPLANTED DECISION-MAKING: AMERICAN OWNED FIRMS IN BRITAIN [I]

decision-making processes are compared in American and British subsidiaries in Britain to investigate how far processual characteristics as distinct from structural features, may be implanted in subsidiaries abroad. Managements in the British owned subsidiaries tend to route their biggest decisions through the formalities of standing committees in conformity with customary procedures, taking a comparatively long time to do so. Managements in the American owned subsidiaries tend to rely on informally assembled working groups which help to arrive at a decision comparatively rapidly through a process which does not ostensibly follow any recognized procedure. The British mode is formal within a non-formalized customary pattern, the American mode informal within a formalized frame.     

行人应急交通疏散仿真研究

从分析应急疏散人员的行为活动入手,根据其在疏散活动开始前的决策行为获取应急疏散人员参与到疏散活动中的时间分布;根据其在紧急疏散中表现出的理性程度以及对周围环境的熟悉距离建立应急疏散人员对避难所的选择模型,估测应急疏散人员的交通空间分布情况。以实际居民区为例,结合人员的时间和空间分布特征,运用仿真软件VISSIM模拟对应于不同理性程度和熟悉距离情况下人员的建筑物外徒步疏散过程．推断人的不同行为反应对疏散效率的影响。