次贷危机后的金融监管改革述评

本文对发达国家因全球金融海啸后所实行的各种金融改革计划和未来促进金融安定和成长与金融监管产生的影响进行了评述。本文认为,金融监管新趋势,将从顺景气循环转为缓和景气循环;从银行信息高度保密转为全球联合反制租税不合作国家年代;从限制监管范畴转为金融体系重要机构、金融工具和金融市场等均需受到审慎监管。     

金融开放、金融稳定与金融监管改进

中国金融开放已经到了外国资本在中国银行业市场上举足轻重的时候。对外开放在引进外部竞争的同时,也会带来金融稳定问题。东道国政府必须在金融开放与金融稳定之间做出权衡。在对外开放作为基本国策的背景中,金融监管成为保证金融稳定的主要途径。以激励为基础的金融监管体系是金融稳定的先决条件。     

对外开放中的金融稳定与金融安全：一个文献综述

目前国内外学界就金融风险、金融危机以及金融脆弱性等著述和理论探讨非常多,但至今也没有形成关于金融稳定以及金融安全的公认的统一的概括与界定.诸多研究文献提出了金融稳定与金融危机的衡量指标体系,并创立了金融危机预警系统,并从各个角度提出了防范金融危机的措施.存款保险制度对于金融稳定的作用,理论界存在争论,但诸多家选择了该制度,并保持存款者的信心,防止金融传染.从研究趋势来看,从宏观面上时金融稳定以及金融安全的研究,还有待深入.     

The Effect of Business and Financial Market Cycles on Credit Ratings: Evidence from the Last Two Decades

We analyze the effect of business and financial market cycles on credit ratings using a sample of firms from the Russell 3000 index that are rated by Standard and Poor's over the period 1986–2012. We also examine investor reaction to credit rating actions in different stages of business and financial market cycles. We document that credit rating agencies are influenced by business and financial market cycles; they assign lower credit ratings during downturns of business and financial market cycles and higher ratings during upturns. Our study is the first to find strong evidence of pro‐cyclicality in credit ratings using a long window. We also document stronger investor reaction to negative credit rating actions during downturns. Our results confirm theoretical predictions and inform regulators.     

金融调控中的物价稳定与金融稳定:从分离到融合的逻辑演进

从历史上考察,中央银行实施货币政策和充当最后贷款人,客观上使其具有了保持物价稳定和维护金融稳定的职能。20世纪80年代以后,许多国家的金融调控出现了明显变化,逐步向稳定物价的单一目标方向发展,金融监管则出现了"去央行化"的趋势,使中央银行失去了维护金融稳定的能力和手段。经济全球化产生了很多影响物价稳定与金融稳定的新因素,要求中央银行在保持物价稳定的同时,对金融稳定给予更多关注。全球金融危机后,国际社会和主要经济体加快了宏观审慎管理体系的构建,这为解决物价稳定与金融稳定的协调配合提供了新思路。如果将物价稳定与金融稳定纳入到宏观审慎管理的视野,就有可能在金融调控中二者兼顾,建立起新的金融调控范式。     

金融稳定有关问题研究综述

金融稳定是一个古老而又现代、历久而又弥新的课题,其引起广泛关注是与 20世纪90年代以来世界各国频仍发生、带来惨重损失的金融危机及由此引发的社会动荡联系在一起的。金融稳定方面的理论研究在国內外尚处于起步的阶段。本文综述了国际上对金融稳定几个主要问题的研究进展状况,重点就金融稳定的框架、货币政策和金融稳定与中央银行和金融稳定等问题梳理、分析和评述了现有文献,以便促进金融稳定研究的进一步深入。     

中国金融发展中的稳定性问题研究

经过 2 0多年的改革开放 ,我国金融在国民经济运行与发展中的地位和作用日益重要 ,金融发展已成为经济发展的先导与推动力量 ,金融稳定是经济稳定的先决条件。但我国现行金融制度的缺陷加大了中国金融业内在的不稳定性 ,金融发展中重数量增长、轻质量提高的倾向及其粗放式经营所导致的结构失衡和效率低下削弱了金融发展的稳定性 ,金融产业化发展进程中的矛盾也对稳定性产生了不利影响。在现实国内外的金融发展格局下中国金融必须坚持走稳健发展之路 ,需要通过金融的稳健发展促进并保持经济的稳健发展。为此需要以金融创新为金融发展的内在推动力 ,以调整金融结构为近期重点 ,增强中国金融发展中的稳定性 ,同时加快金融体制改革 ,消除金融发展中的不稳定因素。     

Accounting and prudential regulation: from uncomfortable bedfellows to perfect partners?

Recent initiatives to improve the public information about individual firms have brought to the fore significant differences in perspective between accountants and prudential regulators. We examine the reasons for these differences and propose ways in which they could be reconciled within a broader framework aimed at identifying the type of information conducive to the proper functioning and stability of the financial system. We argue that such information should concern three characteristics: estimates of current financial condition; estimates of risk profile; and measures of the uncertainty surrounding those estimates. So far, efforts have mainly focused on the first characteristic, with the second having drawn attention only recently and the third having been largely neglected. We propose a strategy to reconcile different perspectives based on two principles: first, in the long-term, the “decoupling” of the objective of accurate financial reporting by the firm from that of instilling the desired degree of prudence in its behaviour; second, a “parallel transition” process towards that objective so that at all points the prudential measures can neutralise any undesirable implications of changes in financial reporting standards on financial stability.     

Cyclicality of SME lending and government involvement in banks

Recent regulatory efforts aim at lowering the cyclicality of bank lending because of its potentially detrimental effects on financial stability and the real economy. We investigate the cyclicality of SME lending of local banks with versus without a public mandate, controlling for location, size, loan maturity, capitalization, funding structure, liquidity, profitability, and credit demand-side factors. The public mandate is set by local governments and stipulates a sustainable provision of financial services to local customers and a deviation from strict profit maximization. We find that banks with a public mandate are 25% less cyclical than other local banks. The result is credit supply-side driven and especially strong for public mandate banks with high liquidity and stable deposit funding. Our findings have implications for the bank structure, financial stability and the finance-growth nexus in a local context.     

普惠金融、金融深化与金融稳定--基于ARDL-ECM模型估计

本文利用中国1988~2016年宏观经济数据、金融数据,分别构建金融压力指数与普惠金融发展指数来反映我国的金融稳定状况和普惠金融发展状况,并利用ARDL-ECM模型来分析金融压力指数、普惠金融发展水平、金融深化水平之间的关系。实证结果表明我国普惠金融的发展虽然短期会加大系统性金融风险,但是长期来看是有利于金融稳定的。并且对于我国来说金融深化短期内有利于缓解系统性金融风险,但是长期不利于金融稳定。同时,长期内金融深化可以加大普惠金融对金融稳定的有利影响,但是短期却会加大普惠金融不利于金融稳定的作用。     

Euro area banking and monetary policy shocks in the QE era

This paper assesses the effects of monetary policy shocks on the macroeconomy and the euro area banking sector after the global financial crisis. First, financial risk-return indicators of the banking sector based on a compound option-based structural credit risk model are embedded in a large macro-financial quarterly database covering the period 2008Q4–2019Q4. Second, a SFAVAR identifies and estimates the shocks’ responses relating them to the endogenous build-up of banks’ vulnerabilities which are consistent with the internally coherent structure of the credit risk model. By introducing structure in the understanding of banks’ asset-liability management behavior following monetary policy shocks, the research strategy contributes to disentangling results that are often mixed in the empirical literature. The study finds that unconventional monetary policy, in particular the Asset Purchase Program of the European Central Bank, seems to have been more successful than conventional monetary policy in raising output and inflation. The desired boost to bank lending has been muted and loan cyclicality has varied across countries and loan types. The performance of the banking sector following monetary policy shocks can be characterized by a drop in expected return on equity and assets, a relaxation of lending conditions and increased correlation between banks’ assets return and the market return, a mechanism pointing to enhanced risk-taking. While banks’ probabilities of default fall following monetary policy shocks, the price of risk increases. Banks’ net worth rises via higher market capitalization and implied assets value together with lower volatility, despite often incurring more debt. Risk-taking in the banking sector may pose a risk to financial stability, especially if its effects on banks’ vulnerability spread and increase systemic risk. The unintended endogenous build-up of macro-financial vulnerabilities may need to become part of monetary policymaking.     

Defining and achieving financial stability

We discuss the thorny issue of how to define financial stability, and conclude that the best approach is to define the characteristics of an episode of financial instability, and to define financial stability as a state of affairs in which episodes of instability are unlikely to occur. We then discuss public policies to achieve financial stability, distinguishing between preventive and remedial measures, and explore the costs and benefits of such policies. We conclude with some comments on current issues in financial regulation, including Basel 2.     

美国金融衍生工具市场的发展、运作及监管研究

20世纪70年代以来,以资产证券化为主的金融创新从供给和需求两个角度推动了金融衍生工具市场的发展,该市场对于降低交易成本、削弱信息不对称以及提高资源配置效率发挥了重要的作用,并促使商业银行经营模式的转变和金融体系结构的变迁。但由于监管的疏漏,衍生工具市场对金融稳定带来了巨大威胁。鉴于此,美国金融监管部门加强了对该市场的监管改革,但关于改革的必要性和力度成为学术界和业界争议的焦点。就我国而言,发展衍生工具市场虽然有助于多元化融资渠道的构建,但以审慎原则为基础构建相应的监管体系也是十分必要的。     

影响欠发达地区农村金融稳定因素分析——以贺州市为例

金融稳定关乎整个金融体系和社会经济的持续健康发展,意义重大,尤其是在当前复杂多变的严峻形势下。农村金融稳定是金融稳定的薄弱环节,影响因素更多。本文以贺州市为实例,对影响欠发达地区农村金融稳定的因素进行了全面深入的调查分析,并提出了相关对策建议。     

农村非正规金融组织演变、规模与政策选择

农村非正规金融事实上一直在中国农村金融市场中扮演着特殊角色,本文对国内非正规金融与民间金融两种概念进行了必要区分,并指出农村非正规金融组织演变进程是由原先的社会属性向经济属性、关系型信用向准契约型信用转变的过程.中国农村非正规金融的最终演变方向与政府政策选择有着密切联系,政府应该有效地整合农村非正规金融资源,将其纳入到正式制度的调节范围,使其最终成为中国农村金融体系中的重要组成部分.     

生态金融研究文献综述

在金融发展问题分析中引入生态学的相关概念和原理,是近年来我国金融研究方法的一大创新,为我们认识金融发展过程中存在的问题提供了一个全新的解释,并得到越来越多的认可,成为国内金融研究和实践的前沿领域。基于国内外研究成果,提出生态金融的理论框架,并在此框架内对已有的成果脉络进行综述。     

房价波动、金融稳定与最优宏观审慎政策

本文通过构建包含家庭住房抵押借款摩擦和银行贷款摩擦的动态随机一般均衡模型,重点考察了异质性冲击下房价波动对金融稳定的影响。研究发现,房价上涨会导致银行风险溢价及杠杆率显著上升,进而加剧金融体系的内在不稳定。为降低房价波动及维护金融稳定,选取两类宏观审慎政策工具进行逆周期调控实验,结果表明,在住房需求冲击下,金融管理部门应选取贷款价值比政策,且应对房贷积极调控,而对房价进行中性调控。在最终产品部门生产率冲击、房地产部门生产率冲击及跨期偏好冲击下,应选取资本充足率政策,但对房贷和房价调控力度的把握则存在差异。本研究为厘清房价波动对金融稳定的动态传导机制,以及金融管理部门如何选取宏观审慎政策工具以稳定房价并降低系统性金融风险提供了启示。     

金融创新、金融风险与金融稳定的理论分析

金融创新、金融风险和金融稳定的关系是一个具有现实意义的问题,金融创新是金融领域各种要素的重新优化组合和金融资源的重新配置。从微观层面看,金融创新对金融稳定的促进作用体现在金融风险规避、金融效率提高和金融市场发展。从宏观层面看,金融创新有助于货币融通、金融体系稳定和金融发展安全等。而另一方面,金融创新可能带来金融脆弱性、危机传染性和系统性风险,并给金融监管带来巨大挑战,对金融安全产生负面冲击。     

How does corporate social responsibility affect financial performance,financial stability,and financial inclusion in the banking sector? Evidence from Pakistan

This paper examines the impact of corporate social responsibility (CSR) on the financial performance, financial inclusion, and financial stability of the banking sector, focusing on annual data for 20 Pakistani commercial banks for the period 2008–2017. The results suggest that CSR, as well as age and size, has a positive impact on all three factors. However, high levels of leverage reduce financial inclusion and financial stability, while financial inclusion is also negatively associated with the tangibility of assets.     

金融稳定政策分析:以议程设定为例

传统上人们一直将金融稳定视为经济学问题。但近年来,越来越多的研究意识到金融稳定更是一项公共政策。本文分析了将金融稳定作为公共政策的原因,并以其议程设定为例分析了金融稳定的公共政策决策过程。在此基础上,将金融稳定的公共政策分析与经济学分析相结合,揭示其对我国金融稳定工作的启示,提出了相应的政策建议。