A test for rational bubbles in the NASDAQ stock index: A fractionally integrated approach

In this paper we test for the presence of rational bubbles in the NASDAQ stock market index over the period 1994:06–2003:11 by means of a methodology based on fractional processes. The results suggest that the existence of bubbles depends on the sampling frequency used in the analysis. We cannot reject the unit root hypothesis when using monthly data on price–dividend ratios, which according to the present value model suggests the existence of rational bubbles. However, we reject this hypothesis in favor of fractional alternatives when using daily and weekly data. This might be explained by the temporal aggregation and/or the sample sizes used in the application.     

Are There Rational Speculative Bubbles in REITs?

This study tests for the presence of rational speculative bubbles in the Equity REIT industry. We analyze REIT prices using a vector of macroeconomic fundamentals. Using the unit root test and cointegration procedures, we find no evidence of rational bubbles in the REIT market. Tests for duration dependence in the returns series show no evidence of negative duration dependence, suggesting that REIT markets are not affected by rational bubbles. Applying the same tests, we find no evidence of rational speculative bubbles in the Russell 2000 index, a proxy for small-cap stocks.     

What Drives Housing Markets: Fundamentals or Bubbles?

This study applies the dynamic Gordon growth model which is in the circumstance of rational bubbles to decompose log price-rent ratio into three parts, i.e., rational bubbles, discounted expected future rent growth rates and discounted expected future returns. The latter two terms represent housing fundamentals. The magnitudes of the components of price-rent ratio’s variance are estimated to distinguish the relative impact of the three parts on housing prices. Using time series data from the housing markets in the four largest cities in China (1991:Q1–2011:Q1 for Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen; 1993:Q2–2011:Q1 for Beijing), this paper presents a number of empirical findings: (a) the variance of rational bubbles is much larger than the variance of price-rent ratio, and rational bubbles contribute more fluctuations directly to price-rent ratio than the expected returns or the expected rent growth rates do; (b) the covariance between rational bubbles and expected returns or expected rent growth rates is also large; (c) the positive covariance of rational bubbles and expected returns implies that high expected returns coexist with bubbles, which differs from previous findings that lower expected returns drive asset prices; (d) the negative covariance of rational bubbles and expected rent growth rates indicates that the larger the bubbles are, the lower the expected rent growth rates are; (e) the positive covariance of expected returns and expected rent growth rates reveals under-reaction of the housing markets to rents.     

Cointegrated Periodically Collapsing Bubbles in the Exchange Rate of “BRICS”

We test the occurrence of periodically recurring rational bubbles in the exchange rate of each of the “BRICS” countries currency relative to the US dollar. The forward exchange rate is used as a proxy for the expected exchange rate, different Purchasing Parity Power (PPP)-based rules for the fundamental exchange rate are considered, and its initial value is endogenously determined. For the chosen model, the regime switching equation satisfactorily fits the data, confirming the presence of rational bubbles for all countries. The dynamics of the exchange rate series for each country is interpreted with the help of the estimated bubbles. The bubbles are compared across countries, found to be cointegrated, and this is interpreted as evidence of the international transmission of exchange rate shocks between these countries.     

Speculation and price bubbles in the Korean and Japanese real estate markets

This article investigates the possibility of speculation having caused the prices of land and housing to deviate from their given long-run equilibrium levels in Korea and Japan. We modeled speculation by incorporating the expected future price into the demand equation. The existence of growing rational bubbles was tested on Korean and Japanese data using the standard econometric technique for estimating linear rational expectations models. Our analysis of the Korean annual data suggests that a growing rationale bubble existed during the 1974–1989 period, nominal or real. Estimation results of the same model using Japanese annual data also confirmed the existence of a bubble in land price. Contrary to our analysis of land price data, the evidence of the bubble was much less obvious in Korean annual housing price data. We therefore estimated the model using quarterly data and found that the existence of a bubble could not be established in housing prices. This finding was also consistent with the trend of the rent-to-value ratio series in apartment units. Our results need to be taken with caution because our approach suffers from the common econometric problem of possible mis-specification of the model and because of the small size of the sample.     

Are There Rational Bubbles in REITs? New Evidence from a Complex Systems Approach

This study applies a complex systems approach to test for the presence of rational bubbles in the Equity REITs market. The applied model is based on theoretical implications of the evolution of prices under rational bubble regimes. The advantage of the approach is twofold. The model is able to detect rational bubbles while they rise and to predict the most likely time of their collapse. We apply the model to daily price data on U.S. Equity REITs from 1989 to 2011. Our findings suggest the existence of a bubble for the period of 2003 to 2007. Tests for sub-markets reveal that the bubble developed in the Residential REITs market, but not in the Office REITs market.     

Identification of speculative bubbles using state-space models with Markov-switching

In this paper we use a state-space model with Markov-switching to detect speculative bubbles in stock-price data. To this end we express a present-value stock-price model in state-space form which we estimate using the Kalman filter. This procedure enables us to estimate a two-regime Markov-switching specification of the unobservable bubble process. The respective Markov-regimes represent two distinct phases in the bubble process, namely one in which the bubble survives and one in which it collapses. We ultimately identify bursting stock-price bubbles by statistically separating both Markov-regimes from each other. In an empirical analysis we apply our methodology to a plethora of artificial and real-world data sets. Our study has two major findings. First, we find significant Markov-switching structures in real-world stock-price bubbles. Second, in the stock markets considered our identification procedure correctly detects most speculative periods which have been classified as such by economic historians.     

Estimating Private Equity Returns from Limited Partner Cash Flows

We introduce a methodology to estimate the historical time series of returns to investment in private equity funds. The approach requires only an unbalanced panel of cash contributions and distributions accruing to limited partners and is robust to sparse data. We decompose private equity returns from 1994 to 2015 into a component due to traded factors and a time‐varying private equity premium not spanned by publicly traded factors. We find cyclicality in private equity returns that differs according to fund type and is consistent with the conjecture that capital market segmentation contributes to private equity returns.     

Relating goals to policies in time-series analysis

Time-series analysis is a methodology of value to both futures researchers and policy evaluators; its data can be used to extrapolate trends concerning both future goal achievements and future policies. Time series can also be used to relate policies to goals provided that the reciprocal effect of goal achievement on policy adoption and vice versa is taken into consideration. The author suggests that the best method for adjusting for this reciprocal causation may be by using cross-lagged panel analysis.     

Speculative bubbles and the cross-sectional variation in stock returns

Evidence suggests that rational, periodically collapsing speculative bubbles may be pervasive in stock markets globally, but there is no research that considers them at the individual stock level. In this study we develop and test an empirical asset pricing model that allows for speculative bubbles to affect stock returns. We show that stocks incorporating larger bubbles yield higher returns. The bubble deviation, at the stock level as opposed to the industry or market level, is a priced source of risk that is separate from the standard market risk, size and value factors. We demonstrate that much of the common variation in stock returns that can be attributable to market risk is due to the co-movement of bubbles rather than being driven by fundamentals.     

Efficiency and risk in European banking

We assess the inter-temporal relationship between bank efficiency, capital and risk in a sample of European commercial banks employing several definitions of efficiency, risk and capital and using the Granger-causality methodology in a panel data framework. Our results suggest that lower bank efficiency with respect to costs and revenues Granger-causes higher bank risk and that increases in bank capital precede cost efficiency improvements. We also find that more efficient banks eventually become better capitalized and that higher capital levels tend to have a positive effect on efficiency levels. These results are generally confirmed by a series of robustness tests. The results have potentially important implications for bank prudential supervision and underline the importance of attaining long-term efficiency gains to support financial stability objectives.     

中国房地产价格的泡沫检验和空间联动分析

本文利用Pesaran提出的面板数据处理方法分析中国1996-2006年房地产价格,发现房地产价格和居民收入之间存在协整关系,但房价上涨速度快于居民收入增长速度,房地产市场具有"理性泡沫"特征。进一步的分析表明,城市化进程和空间扩散是短期内导致房价波动的两个重要因素,而利率的影响不显著。     

What drives local lending by global banks?

We find that the lending behavior of global banks’ subsidiaries throughout the world is more closely related to local macroeconomic conditions and their financial conditions than to those of their owner-specific counterparts. This inference is drawn from a panel dataset populated with bank-level observations from the Bankscope database. Using this database, we identify ownership structures and incorporate them into a unique methodology that identifies and compares the owner and subsidiary-specific determinants of lending. A distinctive feature of our analysis is that we use multi-dimensional country-level data from the BIS international banking statistics to account for exchange rate fluctuations and cross-border lending.     

卖空约束、投资者行为和A股市场的定价泡沫

本文构建了一个随机估值模型,在此基础上运用面板数据方法对A股市场的资产定价泡沫水平和成因进行了研究,获得了如下研究结论:首先,A股市场中估值泡沫和投机泡沫并存。其次,卖空约束导致的定价偏差是定价泡沫的成因之一。第三,异质信念和不对称信息与泡沫水平正相关,过度自信与泡沫水平负相关。第四,重要流通股股东的信息优势与交易中的不对称信息无协同效应。最后,若卖空约束不存在,观察不到损失厌恶对泡沫的影响。     

International Evidence on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Using Aggregate and Disaggregate Data

We present a unique empirical analysis of the properties of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) using an international data set of aggregate and disaggregate sectoral inflation. Our results from panel time‐series estimation clearly indicate that sectoral heterogeneity has important consequences for aggregate inflation behavior. Heterogeneity helps to explain the overestimation of inflation persistence and underestimation of the role of marginal costs in empirical investigations of the NKPC that use aggregate data. We find that combining disaggregate information with heterogeneous‐consistent estimation techniques helps to reconcile, to a large extent, the NKPC with the data.     

Do Thai stock prices deviate from fundamental values?

The stock market in Thailand experienced several apparent boom and bust cycles in recent years, which raises the question of whether equity prices in Thailand reflect their fundamental values. This paper examines whether the Thai equity market was characterized by rational expectations bubbles over the sample period from June 1975 to June 2006. The cointegration test provides evidence of no long-run relationship among prices, dividends and earnings, indicating the presence of a rational bubble. The results are confirmed by the non-parametric duration dependence test, which shows evidence of negative duration dependence in runs of positive returns, consistent with the presence of rational expectations bubbles. Further analysis reveals departures from fundamental values in the initial sample subperiod ending with the Asian financial crisis in 1997. However, prices appear to be in line with fundamentals in the more recent post-1997 subperiod.     

Getting PPP right: Identifying mean-reverting real exchange rates in panels

Recent advances in testing for the validity of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) focus on the time series properties of real exchange rates in panel frameworks. One weakness of such tests, however, is that they fail to inform the researcher as to which cross-section units are stationary. As a consequence, a reservation for PPP analyses based on such tests is that a small number of real exchange rates in a given panel may drive the results. In this paper we examine the PPP hypothesis focusing on the stationarity of the real exchange rates in up to 25 OECD countries. We introduce a methodology that when applied to a set of established panel unit-root tests, allows the identification of the real exchange rates that are stationary. Our results reveal evidence of mean-reversion that is significantly stronger as compared to that obtained by the existing literature, strengthening the case for PPP.     

Testing for a rational bubble under long memory

We analyse the time series properties of the S&P500 dividend–price ratio in the light of long-memory, structural breaks and rational bubbles. We find an increase in the long-memory parameter in the early 1990s by applying a test recently proposed by Sibbertsen and Kruse [J. Time Series Anal., 2009, 30, 263–285]. An application of the unit root test against long memory of Demetrescu et al. [Econometr. Theory, 2008, 24, 176–215] suggests that the pre-break data can be characterized by long memory, while the post-break sample contains a unit root. These results reconcile two empirical findings that are seen as contradictory: on the one hand, they confirm the existence of fractional integration in the S&P500 log-dividend–price ratio and, on the other, they are consistent with the existence of a rational bubble. The result of a changing memory parameter in the dividend–price ratio has an important implication for the literature on return predictability: the shift from a stationary dividend–price ratio to a unit root process in 1991 is likely to have caused the well-documented failure of conventional return prediction models since the 1990s.     

Optimal macroprudential policy and rational bubbles

We provide a microfounded framework for the welfare analysis of macroprudential policy within a model of rational bubbles. For this, we posit an overlapping generation model where productivity and credit supply are subject to random shocks. We find that when real interest rates are lower than the rate of growth, credit financed bubbles may be welfare improving because of their role as a buffer in channeling excessive credit supply and inefficient investment at the firms’ level, but their sudden price decrease may cause a systemic crisis. Therefore, a well designed macroprudential policy plays a key role in improving efficiency while preserving financial stability. Our theoretical framework allows us to compare the efficiency of alternative macroprudential policies. Contrarily to conventional wisdom, we show that macroprudential policy (i) may be efficient even in the absence of systemic risk, (ii) has to be contingent on productivity shocks and (iii) must be contingent upon the level of real interest rates.     

Bubbles and capital flow volatility: Causes and risk management

Emerging market economies are fertile ground for the development of real estate and other financial bubbles. Despite these economies’ significant growth potential, their corporate and government sectors do not generate the financial instruments to provide residents with adequate stores of value. Capital often flows out of these economies seeking these stores of value in the developed world. Bubbles are beneficial because they provide domestic stores of value and thereby reduce capital outflows while increasing investment. But they come at a cost, as they expose the country to bubble-crashes and capital flow reversals. We show that domestic financial underdevelopment not only facilitates the emergence of bubbles, but also leads agents to undervalue the aggregate risk embodied in financial bubbles. In this context, even rational bubbles can be welfare reducing. We study a set of aggregate risk management policies to alleviate the bubble-risk. We show that liquidity requirements, sterilization of capital inflows and structural policies aimed at developing public debt markets ‘collateralized’ by future revenues, all have a high payoff in this environment.