服务贸易对美国经常账户赤字的影响——基于豪斯克-麦奇收入不对称效应的验证

本文尝试构建一个基于H-M效应的模型,分析H-M效应对美国经常账户赤字变化的影响机制。并就该模型对美国经常账户赤字变化的解释能力进行验证,结果表明H-M效应对美国经常账户赤字的变化趋势具有较好的解释力。在此基础上,本文应用1986-2005年的数据分别估算了美国商品和服务品进出口收入弹性系数。估算结果显示,与商品进出口收入弹性系数相反,美国服务出口的收入弹性系数大于进口的收入弹性系数。为了探讨服务贸易对美国经常账户赤字的影响,应用基于H-M效应的模型分析美国服务贸易的发展对其经常账户赤字变化的影响。     

EXPLAINING ASYMMETRY IN THE U.S. MERCHANDISE AND SERVICE ACCOUNT BALANCE: Does the Service Sector Hold the Key to the U.S. Current Account Woes?

The U.S. economy has experienced two noteworthy structural changes in recent years. Externally, there has been a growing deficit in the merchandise account along with a simultaneously rising service account surplus. And domestically, the GDP share of the service sectors has been growing at a faster rate relative to the goods sectors. The objective of this article is to test the proposition that much of the asymmetry in the relative performance of the merchandise and the service accounts can be explained (1) in terms of income and price elasticity differentials and (2) in terms of relative growth of the service sectors. Results from estimated import and export demand functions for merchandise and service trades and from sectoral analysis of the U.S. economy seem to support the above proposition. The main policy implications are that: (1) domestically, the United States should facilitate current sectoral transformation by eliminating market distortions and rigidities and (2) externally, it should expand on the initiatives taken during the Uruguay Round and drive the WTO toward a full liberalization of trade in services.     

Those Current Account Imbalances: A Sceptical View1

The international current account imbalances, where the United States has a vast deficit, and several countries, notably Japan, China, Germany and the oil exporters have corresponding surpluses, are usually seen as problems. The argument here is that current account imbalances simply indicate intertemporal trade – the exchange of goods and services for claims. There are likely to be gains from trade of that kind as from ordinary trade. What, then, are the problems? This paper considers five scenarios, notably one where net savings of the surplus countries decline so that the world real interest rate rises, and another where the US fiscal deficit is reduced, so that the world real interest rate falls and there could be a worldwide aggregate demand problem, essentially caused by the high net savings of the surplus countries. The paper reviews the reasons for the large surpluses in terms of savings and investment ratios (especially China) and also discusses the long‐term problem for the United States. While four of the scenarios involve a decline in the dollar, they do not necessarily imply a sudden – and even ‘disruptive’– dollar crisis.     

中美贸易结构性失衡:基于赫克歇尔—俄林模型的分析

把中美贸易失衡问题置于国际分工的新格局下进行分析,不难发现,中美贸易逆差的根本原因在于世界头号服务业强国与世界头号制造业大国之间在服务贸易和商品贸易上发生的结构性失衡。中美贸易失衡与全球服务贸易和商品贸易在自由化进程上的非对称性紧密联系在一起。考虑到全球服务贸易自由化的缓慢进展,以及中国对服务贸易自由化已经做出的承诺水平,中美贸易的结构性失衡在相当长的时期内将难以消除。     

服务贸易、货物贸易和劳动生产率变动:理论和实证——基于李嘉图连续统模型的贸易差额分析

根据经验统计表明,服务贸易与货物贸易在差额变动和方向上存在替代性特征。文章以Dornbush等(1977)为基础考虑一个两国开放经济的李嘉图连续统模型,分析各国不同部门劳动生产率变化与服务成为贸易品两个因素对贸易形式和贸易差额变化的影响。研究表明在服务可贸易条件下,不同国家在服务部门和货物生产部门劳动生产率发生的相对差异变动,是导致各国货物或服务贸易差额关系变化的决定因素。而中国-OECD(1982-2004)的劳动生产率及贸易差额的数据检验,也较好地支持了此结论。     

货物贸易、服务贸易与技术贸易发展趋向

通过对世界货物贸易、世界服务贸易和国际技术贸易这三者的发展状况进行对比分析,考察三者在贸易自由化方面的关系,认为技术贸易自由化的阻力是技术贸易、服务贸易和货物贸易中最小的,且发展最快;服务贸易自由化的阻力又小于货物贸易自由化的阻力,其发展速度快于货物贸易,并据此提出我国应采取的对策建议。     

全球价值链分工下区域贸易协定能降低服务贸易成本吗

全球价值链分工下服务的作用愈发凸显,服务贸易的新形式丰富了区域贸易协定影响服务贸易成本的渠道。本文从中间投入和最终需求两个维度分析了区域贸易协定对不同类型服务贸易成本的影响效果和机制。结果表明:单纯签订区域贸易协定对服务贸易成本的抑制作用并不显著,提高区域贸易协定的深度将显著降低服务贸易成本。区域贸易协定可以显著降低中间投入服务贸易成本,对最终需求服务贸易成本的抑制效应不显著。区域贸易协定的服务贸易自由化效果存在非对称性,北北型区域贸易协定对服务贸易成本的抑制效应强于南北型。北北型区域贸易协定可以通过减少监管分歧和货物贸易自由化效果外溢两条途径降低服务贸易成本,南北型区域贸易协定则仅可以通过货物贸易自由化的外溢效应来降低服务贸易成本。因此,中国应积极与发达国家开展高质量区域贸易协定谈判,通过提高区域贸易协定深度充分发挥其服务贸易自由化效果。     

美国对外贸易的理念和货物贸易的基本格局

自由贸易是美国对外贸易的基本理念。贸易自由化是战后美国对外贸易政策的基本特征,原因在于贸易自由化每年给美国带来1万亿美元左右的收益。对美国货物贸易的基本格局可以从五个方面认识:美国是世界上进出口规模最大的国家;美国进口规模比出口规模对世界经济的影响更大;美国是世界上最大的贸易逆差国,享受了世界最多的物质财富;美国贸易条件的变动表明对外贸易格局有利于美国;美国进口规模扩大与产业结构升级的结合演变为美国结构性增长优势。     

Information, incentives and multinational firms

I present a model that explains a multinational firm's choice of organizational form. If a firm in the developed country outsources the production of its intermediate goods to a supplier in the developing country, it faces an adverse selection problem. If it chooses to produce the intermediate goods in its own subsidiary in the developing country, it faces an inefficient monitoring problem. My analysis of this tradeoff provides a new explanation for the observation that FDI is concentrated in capital intensive industries and yields two empirical hypotheses: more firms should adopt outsourcing instead of FDI after trade liberalization; the share of intra-firm trade in total trade should be increasing in the degree of productivity dispersion across intermediate goods suppliers in the developing country.     

FDI in post-production services and product market competition

Post-production services, such as sales, distribution, and maintenance, comprise a crucial element of business activity. We explore an international duopoly model in which a foreign firm has the option of outsourcing post-production services to its domestic rival or providing those services by establishing its own facilities through FDI. We demonstrate that trade liberalization in goods may hurt domestic consumers and lower world welfare, and that the negative welfare impacts are turned into positive ones if service FDI is also liberalized. This finding yields important policy implications, given the reality that the progress of liberalization in service sectors is still limited.     

新形势下加快我国服务贸易发展的对策

近年来,世界贸易竞争的重点从货物贸易转向服务贸易,服务贸易竞争的战略地位日益突出。2007年世界服务贸易出口总额为32600亿美元,比2006年增长18％,高于上年同期12％的增长水平。随着世界新一轮产业结构的调整和贸易自由化进程的继续推进,服务贸易更趋于活跃,加快发展服务贸易越来越成为各国关注的焦点。对于我国来说,加快发展服务贸易,是我国实现从经济大国迈向经济强国、从贸易大国走向贸易强国、从制造经济转向服务经济的战略抉择,具有重大战略意义。本文通过分析我国服务贸易发展现状与问题及其原因,提出了新形势下加快我国服务贸易发展的对策。     

Trade Costs and Current Accounts

Are trade cost reductions a plausible explanation for growing global current account imbalances? I advocate that changes in trade costs affect trade and production structures, which is likely to affect national savings and investment. Explicitly adding trade costs à la Markusen and Venables into Jin's framework, this augmented model predicts that trade cost reductions affect the current account through changes in the industrial structure. Empirical evidence confirms that the interaction of trade costs and capital intensity drives current account balances. I also provide evidence that the response of current accounts to changes in trade costs depends on the capital intensity of production and on the depth of regional agreements on trade and factor mobility. Aside from the direct effect generally emphasised in standard macro‐level analysis, changes in production patterns could therefore be an additional channel of impact of regional integration on current accounts.     

全球经济失衡与美国服务生产的贸易效应

本文从美国服务生产的贸易效应视角,探讨全球经济失衡中的逆差形成原因。以美国生产结构的变化为切入点,通过构建服务与商品两部门理论模型、统计分析与回归检验,讨论美国服务生产的贸易效应及其与收支失衡的关系。理论研究与模型分析证明,服务生产的非贸易品属性,使得美国经济在偏向于服务生产的产业结构调整中,形成了逆贸易倾向的增长方式。根据统计数据所做的实证分析显示,美国产业划分成生产与服务两部门时,在生产上存在着与理论分析相一致的逆贸易效应。在商品消费上,美国存在着商品边际进口倾向和商品进口需求收入弹性大于1的顺贸易效应。这两种相反的力量,会使出口增长速度低于进口增长速度,形成逆差。回归方程的计量检验发现,美国服务生产与美国商品贸易逆差之间存在因果关系,服务增长速度超过商品增长幅度时,商品贸易逆差增加。     

Impact of services trade on economic growth and current account balance: Evidence from India

This paper aims to study the impact of services trade on India’s economic growth and current account balance during the post-reform period. Earlier studies on this subject have mostly looked at the goods sector. Indian studies which analysed services-led growth from a balance of payments perspective suffered from a bias of having focused only on call-centre exports. In such a context, this study brings in a novel approach by using the Balance of Payments Constrained Growth model and autoregressive distributed lag cointegration to estimate the balance of payments equilibrium growth rate for India’s service sector. The key service sub-sectors are also identified using input–output tables and the TIVA database. This study finds that India’s service sector is growing at a rate almost equal to its balance of payments equilibrium growth rate under the assumption of constant relative prices in international trade, and at a rate lower than the equilibrium growth rate when this assumption is relaxed. Among the major services in India’s export basket, construction, transport and business services are found to exhibit strong backward linkages. Foreign value-added content in India’s services exports is found to be highest in the case of business services, transport services and telecommunications.     

我国经常项目收支平衡与经济增长——基于BPCG模型的实证分析

20世纪90年代初以来,我国经常项目中商品贸易持续顺差,服务贸易和投资收益账户却连年逆差,这种结构不利于我国经济的持续稳定增长。本文应用国际收支约束下经济增长模型(BPCG)及其扩展形式,实证分析了1982-2005年间我国经常项目平衡约束下的经济增长率、商品贸易收支平衡约束下的经济增长率与实际增长率之间的差异,结论为经常项目平衡约束下的经济增长率比商品贸易收支平衡约束下的经济增长率要低0.5-1个百分点。     

生产性服务贸易自由化与制造业生产率提升：基于跨国数据的分析

生产性服务贸易自由化作为当前的一种主要的对外开放的形式,对国家制造业发展的影响还没有统一的理论和实证研究。文章通过构建理论模型研究生产性服务贸易自由化对制造业生产率影响假设,利用2008-2012年中的69个国家的跨国面板数据来对假设进行检验。通过理论和实证分析发现：生产性服务贸易的自由化可以促进国内制造业生产率的提升,但是提升的作用在不同的国家收入水平和生产性服务业部门间体现出差异性。从国家的收入水平差异来看,生产性服务贸易自由化对高收入国家的影响要大于低收入国家。对于不同生产性服务业部门的自由化影响来看,显著地影响制造业生产率的是金融和商务服务生产性服务业,运输和电信生产性服务业的影响较小且不显著。     

国际服务贸易发展态势及其对我国的启示

1980年以来,国际服务贸易以高于货物贸易的速度发展,成为推动各国经济增长的重要力量。国际服务贸易的内部结构同时也发生了较大的变化。把握服务贸易迅速发展和服务产业国际转移的机遇,促进我国服务业内部结构升级成为摆在我们面前亟待解决的问题。重视人力资本积累和逐步加快服务贸易自由化是实现这一目标的重要举措。     

The role of expenditure switching in the global imbalance adjustment

In theory, nominal exchange rate movements can lead to “expenditure switching” when they generate changes in the relative prices of goods across countries. This paper explores whether the expenditure-switching role of exchange rates has changed in the current episode of significant global imbalances. We develop a multi-sector two-country model for the United States and the G6 countries, with the rest of the world captured by exogenous price and demand shocks, and estimate the model over two sub-samples, which cover the periods before and after the early 1990s. Our results indicate that both U.S. imports and exports have become much less responsive to exchange rate movements in recent years, mainly due to changes in firms' pricing behavior and global trade pattern. These findings suggest that the exchange rate would have to move by a much larger amount now than in the 1970s and 1980s to reduce the U.S. trade deficit by a given amount.     

The impact of trade liberalization on productivity: Evidence from India's formal and informal manufacturing sectors

Despite a large literature investigating the impacts of trade on firm productivity, there is almost no evidence on how small firms react to trade liberalization. Using a unique dataset of firm-level surveys that are representative of the entire Indian manufacturing industry, I show that India's unilateral reduction in final goods tariffs increased the average productivity of small, informal firms, which account for 80% of Indian manufacturing employment but have been excluded from previous studies. In contrast, the increase in productivity among larger, formal firms was driven primarily by the concurrent reduction in input tariffs. By examining the effect of the tariff liberalization on the distributions of productivity and firm size, I find evidence consistent with the exit of the smallest, least productive firms from the informal sector. In addition, I find that although the decline in final goods tariffs did not significantly impact average formal sector productivity, it did increase productivity among the top quantiles of the distribution.     

The impact of trade liberalization on productivity: Evidence from India's formal and informal manufacturing sectors

Despite a large literature investigating the impacts of trade on firm productivity, there is almost no evidence on how small firms react to trade liberalization. Using a unique dataset of firm-level surveys that are representative of the entire Indian manufacturing industry, I show that India's unilateral reduction in final goods tariffs increased the average productivity of small, informal firms, which account for 80% of Indian manufacturing employment but have been excluded from previous studies. In contrast, the increase in productivity among larger, formal firms was driven primarily by the concurrent reduction in input tariffs. By examining the effect of the tariff liberalization on the distributions of productivity and firm size, I find evidence consistent with the exit of the smallest, least productive firms from the informal sector. In addition, I find that although the decline in final goods tariffs did not significantly impact average formal sector productivity, it did increase productivity among the top quantiles of the distribution.