中国制造业的垂直专业化与出口增长

基于Hummels et al．（2001）的分析框架,本文利用OECD（2009）提供的投入产出数据库,测算了中国制造业的垂直专业化水平,估计了中国制造业出口增长的来源,并与31个其他经济体进行了比较。测算结果表明：（1）中国制造业的垂直专业化水平较低,但增长迅速,从1995年的0．151上升到2005年的0．261,增长了72．39％,高于绝大多数国家和地区;（2）中国高技术制造业的垂直专业化水平从1995年的0．177,提高到2005年的0．411,增长了131．5％,几乎高于所有其他国家和地区。对制造业出口增长来源的估计发现：（1）中国制造业出口增长的28．85％来自国外增加值的贡献,高于所有的发展中国家,但比大多数发达国家低;（2）中国高技术制造业出口增长的41．2％来自国外增加值的贡献,高于所有发展中国家,超过或接近多数发达国家。     

中国服务业垂直专业化份额及来源

垂直专业化是衡量跨国生产分工的重要指标,服务业垂直专业化份额及来源是全球价值链研究中的重要内容.笔者利用世界投入产出数据,测算了中国服务业整体和行业层面的垂直专业化份额及其国别(地区)来源.研究发现:中国服务业整体垂直专业化份额呈上升趋势,出口中的国外增加值来源呈现多元化趋势;新兴工业经济体和部分发达国家是中国服务业出口中国外增加值的主要来源地;来自新兴市场经济体的国外增加值份额增长较快,与中国服务业形成垂直专业化分工的潜力较大.     

中国制造业出口内涵服务价值演进及因素决定

本文利用WIOD数据库提供的基础数据,分别在细分制造业以及按照要素密集度特征分组两个层面上,测算1995—2011年中国制造业出口内涵的服务增加值总量、国内服务增加值及国外服务增加值。结果显示:(1)制造业出口内涵服务增加值率有逐步提高之势,并且这种变化在劳动密集型、资本密集型、知识和技术密集型部门间具有差异性;(2)无论是在劳动密集型、资本密集型还是知识和技术密集型部门,来自国内服务投入的增加值在服务增加值总量中均占据主导地位,但从动态变化角度看,国内服务投入增加值主导地位有"弱化"迹象,国外服务投入增加值地位有提升趋势,而且这种变化趋势同样存在部门差异性;(3)从决定因素看,制造业垂直专业化程度、服务贸易开放度、国内服务业发展水平、制造业资本有机构成、制造业创新能力以及经济发展水平等,对制造业出口内涵的服务增加值存在一定程度影响,但对内涵国内服务增加值和国外服务增加值影响具有差异性。     

中国省级出口的增加值分解及其应用

本文在全球价值链的基础上考虑国内价值链,首次构建一国内部地区出口增加值的分解框架,并据此框架进行中国省级出口的增加值分解及应用研究。结果表明:(1)各省出口价值来源中,本地增加值份额最高,回流增加值份额最低,国内垂直专业化份额和国际垂直专业化份额居中;各省经济发展水平和本地增加值份额及国际垂直专业化份额分别呈很强的负相关和正相关关系。(2)以增加值出口衡量的各省出口差距明显缩小;具有比较优势的省份-产业往往也更有优势为其他省份提供出口增加值;中国出口的低本地增加值率主要源于沿海省份制造业的增加值出口和总值出口之比较低。(3)以增加值出口和以总值出口衡量的显性比较优势呈现差异,对于许多省份-产业而言,比较优势甚至发生了逆转;对于大部分省份而言,以增加值出口衡量的出口专业化程度要低于以总值出口衡量的出口专业化程度。     

中国制造业产品服务增加值的测算及其产出效应——基于世界投入产出表的研究

利用1995~2011年的世界投入产出表,对中国制造业产品的服务增加值比例进行了测算,大部分制造业产品的服务增加值比例都有不同程度的提高,制造业的服务化水平不断提升。国内服务增加值比例在1995~2011年间呈现波动特征,而国外服务增加值比例的增幅较为明显。电气和光学设备产品的国内外服务增加值水平显著提高,其中批发贸易和经纪贸易、金融业、设备租赁及其他业务贡献的增加值较高,但还有提升空间。面板模型回归结果表明,制造业部门产品的国内外服务含量均能显著提升部门的全要素生产率和产出水平。制造业部门应继续提高产品的国内外服务增加值比例,积极利用国内外服务产品的中间投入,提升制造业部门的服务化水平。     

经济增长与高技术产业出口技术含量关系的实证研究

本文对1993—2009年46个国家和地区高技术产业出口技术含量测度结果发现,发达国家的高技术产业出口技术含量高于发展中国家,发展中国家高技术产业出口技术含量明显超出其收入水平,印度已成为领先国家之一,而中国高技术出口技术含量相对较低。进一步的实证检验表明,经济增长对高技术出口技术含量提升具有长期协整关系,高技术产业出口技术含量的自我提升过程具有显著的收敛性,发展中国家自我提升力表现出明显的追赶效应。     

中国出口技术含量动态变迁及国际比较

在当今全球价值链深入发展的背景下,一国生产的出口产品大量使用国外中间投入品,出口产品中内含技术不一定都来自本国,科学衡量出口技术含量水平和结构需要基于生产工序的数据。本文构建了基于生产工序的技术含量新测度方法,并利用1995—2011年全球投入产出表数据测算了中国及其他主要国家的出口技术含量水平及结构,研究发现:(1)自1995年以来,中国出口确实出现了一定的自身技术水平升级和优化。中国整体和各行业的全部技术含量、国内技术含量和国内技术含量指数都呈现增长态势,表现出向发达国家平均水平的弱收敛趋势;(2)从各行业技术含量相对排名位次来看,中国出口的技术含量几乎锁定在世界最低端,远低于美日等发达国家,根本无法对美日等发达国家构成技术威胁。     

中国高技术产业垂直专业化影响因素研究——基于各行业和各地区面板协整的实证检验

文章选取中国高技术产业1995-2008年行业和地区两个层面的面板数据,运用面板单位根检验、面板协整检验、面板FMOLS估计方法和面板DOLS估计方法对高技术产业垂直专业化的影响因素进行了经验分析。研究表明,外向度和资本密集度对高技术产业垂直专业化有着显著的正向影响,但对各行业和各地区垂直专业化的影响程度存在一定差异。为此,政府应采取相关政策措施,促进高技术产业垂直专业化趋势的不断深化。     

垂直专业化对出口技术复杂度的影响及其机制——基于中国高技术产业的经验证据

垂直专业化分工如何影响出口技术复杂度?本文利用中国高技术产业1998～2015年省级层面数据进行的研究发现:垂直专业化有效地提升了中国高技术产业出口技术复杂度,但在金融危机后垂直专业化的提升效应减弱了。垂直专业化对高技术产业出口技术复杂度的提升效应可以通过研发投入和劳动生产率机制实现,但垂直专业化的研发效应较弱,通过研发投入机制对出口技术复杂度的提升效应较为有限。此外,垂直专业化对出口技术复杂度的影响存在企业异质性,对绩效较好企业的影响效果更显著,而对不同规模企业的影响差异不明显。因此,为提高各地区高技术产业出口技术复杂度水平,政府在制定政策时需要适度考虑地区企业的特征因素,以充分发挥垂直专业化的提升效应。     

我国高技术产业投融资体系存在的问题

一、“十一五”时期高技术产业的融资需求总量与结构预测1995～2002年的数据显示,我国高技术产业增加值占GDP的比重随GDP增长,呈现不断上升的趋势,根据回归得到两者之间的关系(高技术产业增加值占GDP的比重=GDP×(3.2×10-5)以及2010年GDP比2000年翻一番的远景目标进行预测,到2010年我国高技术产业增加值占GDP的比重将达到5.73%,总额达到10244.73亿元。按照1995～2002年高技术产业     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Information infrastructure: Who builds broadband networks?

This paper examines the essential difference between the U.S. and Japan, when one considers information infrastructure. There are seven perception gaps between the U.S. and Japan concerning Information Infrastructure policies. These gaps must be understood in order to compare the countries' governmental policies in this area. In looking at the present circumstances, the essential question to answer concerns who is to build, own and operate the network(s) of the infrastructure. Liberalization is certain to be a central factor in the ongoing telecommunications debates. Now that customers have had a taste of the liberalized market-place, the movement toward more open markets will be difficult to stop. When considering options, it is necessary to pay close attention to standardized network access and the increasingly important role software plays. These issues are causing us to take a new approach to the traditional role played by regulators. They also force a closer look at the appropriate structure of utility companies. This paper addresses the above issues in hopes of stimulating dialog on the new telecommunications infrastructure paradigm.     

海岛地区产业演替及资源基础分析--以舟山群岛为例

改革开放以来,舟山市产业构成发生了显著变化,其经济发展过程可以划分为三个阶段。1992年前,是以产业结构渔业占绝对地位的单一结构阶段;1993—1998年,以旅游业为主的第三产业快速发展阶段;上世纪末以来,又进入了新一轮的经济发展时期,即工业产值比重快速增加阶段。根据海岛的自然资源基础和特点,在新世纪的经济发展过程中,舟山市应定位为生态型的港口旅游城市。以港口及临港工业为主导,以海岛旅游和海洋经济为特色,大力发展第二产业和第三产业。海岛地区的主导产业应体现海岛资源优势及区位优势,以集群性环保型产业为主。同时由于海岛地区淡水资源缺乏,主导产业也应着重选择低耗水型产业。     

风险视角下企业治理结构和研发创新——基于委托代理模型的研究

本文基于委托代理模型,从风险的视角研究企业治理结构对研发创新能力的影响。本文构建了一个包含创新活动的委托代理模型进行理论分析,利用动态DEA 模型测算创新能力,并使用2015-2018年我国上市制造业企业数据进行实证检验。实证部分检验了理论结论:委托代理问题不利于企业提升研发创新能力,且客观风险和主观风险厌恶会加剧该负面影响。基于此,本文认为上市企业应根据企业自身研发活动特点有针对性地改善企业治理结构,提出了适当延长代理人任期、推动股权激励计划、提升代理人的风险承担能力等建议。